It is truly hard to believe that states week is upon us! I suppose time really does fly when you're having fun. As has been pointed out by a handful throughout these past few weeks, although the A classification is still in its early years, this could be a historic year for the smaller school division. With a debate over whether or not Jenkintown is the best team in A history, coupled with the fact that some don't even think they're a lock for the title, shows just how competitive these small schools have gotten over the years. Without any further hesitation, lets start crunching the numbers!
Team Race:
Although I said that some people aren't ready to hand the title to Jenkintown, I am not one of those people. I have simply seen too many impressive performances from this squad to have any doubts in my mind that they will lose this state championship. Their top 4 of the Millers, Wagner, and Geer is just absolutely electric. I think they could honestly put 4 in front of Winchester Thurston's #2 (Heintzleman) and seal the deal early on. Obviously Jenkintown's 5th man is their weakness, but if you have the capability of putting 4 in the top 15 at the state meet, your odds of winning are pretty damn high.
Obviously, Winchester Thurston has their hands full here. Lets look at how they have any realistic shot at stealing this thing. With Sands struggling, if Routledge could snag 2nd amongst team scorers (no Hessler, Healey, etc.), that would be a great start. If Heintzleman can pull Malone (WT #3) with him, and avoid having Jenkintown putting 4 in front of them, this could easily make this a close race. Both teams aren't incredibly solid through 5, so a blow up from Jenkintown's back half of their scoring could give this one to Winchester Thurston. After all of that, I still have Jenkintown taking it by 20 or so points. I think the best chance for WT would be for Henitzleman and Malone to have lifetime races and make a push for the top 10 instead of just the top 20.
As much as we have glorified the team matchup between WT and Jenkintown, there are some other really solid programs that we have continually mentioned throughout the course of the season. I think outside of the two aforementioned programs, Montrose and Wyalusing Valley are our big sleepers watch. WVA ran very well at Foundation, and while they hit a rough patch in early October, they've been looking better and better as we approach the postseason. They have an incredible top 3 of Heeman, Patton, and Laudermilch, and like so many other schools in A, lack a 5th man. Caleb Stoddard, only a freshman, has started to make some big progress in the past few weeks for WVA. If this kid rides some momentum and lands a high finish as WVA's #5, they could very realistically take down WT.
Montrose is in a very similar situation. In incredibly muddy, cold conditions, they scored just 30 points in D2 over decent teams in Elk Lake and Holy Cross. Their ability to run in tough conditions makes them a very desirable team to pick as we turn toward the Hershey hills on Saturday. I don't think they have quite enough firepower up front to catch a team like WT, but they'll certainly be within striking distance. If WT blows up and WVA's 5th man doesn't show up, Montrose could suddenly find themselves on the podium.
I'd say lastly watch for Cochranton and Cranberry. I feel confident about the 4 teams listed above, but these two programs should not be forgotten about. Cochranton has been lurking around the top of the state rankings all year, and Cranberry nearly stole a district title from them last week. I really like Cochranton's duo of Jac Cokley and Noah Bernarding, while Cranberry simply has a really reliable 5 guys. If just one guy steps up out of the ordinary, Cranberry could slide into the top 4.
1. Jenkintown
2. Wyalusing Valley Area
3. Winchester Thurston
4. Montrose
5. Cranberry
6. Cochranton
7. Penns Valley
Wyalusing Valley Area probably has no business being in 2nd, but I really like their top 3, and I can't forget how well they ran at Foundation (go look how well they moved up in the 2nd half of the race). If I didn't make it clear before, Jenkintown is not losing this race. Cranberry flips the script on Cochranton, and makes it a really close race with Montrose for 4th.
Individuals:
The talk of A all year has been the trio up front of Healey, Miller, and Sands. As we enter the final weekend of PAXC, this trio is still intact, but there are definitely some changes from when these guys raced at Foundation. I'm worried about Sands after last weekend, and Miller has just been nothing but incredible this fall. I think only in some freak scenario, does Miller not win this. It is his race to lose. As long as he is confident in his own fitness, he should have no doubts about losing this race. Obviously, Healey will look to challenge, and Adam Hessler is not to be ignored. Despite all the talk of Routledge out west, Hessler has now taken him down in back to back weeks and is wearing the WPIAL crown. I don't think he has quite enough raw talent to steal this one from Miller, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this kid come onto the final straightaway in 2nd. Alongside Sands is his teammate Brendan Colwell, who, despite racing under Sands' shadow for over a year now, has the chance to steal the spotlight for once after his district title last week. Although Healey won his district meet, Liam Mead did not let him off easy. With team implications in play as well for Mead, the Montrose senior has the chance to be the hero for his squad with a big finish. Throw in the names of some solid district champs in Ethan Knoebel, Ian Zimmerman, and Christian Tanner, and we've got ourselves a sneaky crowded race up front in A. Going to be fun folks.
1. Jack Miller
2. Adam Hessler
3. Andrew Healey
4. Colton Sands
5. Scott Routledge
6. Liam Mead
7. Ethan Knoebel
8. Brendan Colwell
9. Luke Miller
10. Ian Zimmerman
11. Kevin Heeman
12. Ben Hoffman
13. Zachary Gould
14. Peyton Jones
15. Pat Wagner
16. Carter Kaufman
17. Christian Tanner
18. Kemuel Laudermilch
19. Mason Ochs
20. Wayne Reilly
21. Carter Geer
22. Jac Cokley
23. Sean Heintzleman
24. Nathaniel Lerch
25. Troy Hart
▼
Wednesday, October 31, 2018
Monday, October 29, 2018
Quick District Recaps
Before we hop into our state predictions for this upcoming weekend, lets take a look at some of our thoughts from the crazy district weekend.
D12-
A:Unsurprisingly, Masterman cruises through to states.
AA: Crazy, crazy upset for Lansdale Catholic. Not only did they knock O'Hara out of states, but they shockingly stole the district title from Engineering & Science.
AAA: No shocker here, as LaSalle cruises through with 15 points. LaSalle has dropped in some people's eyes over the past few weeks, but with every top team having their struggles, I think they're still in contention to win this thing.
D11-
A: Shenandoah Valley ran great to grab the lone state spot by just 2 points over Moravian, while Wayne Reilly looked great in his solo cruise to a district title.
AA: In one of the craziest district races in PA, while Blue Mountain grabbed the title, the battle for the 2nd spot was insane, with a huge upset squad Notre Dame Green Pond taking the second spot. 2nd through 7th were separated by only 16 points! John Koons took down favorite Kevin Haas for the title, and will have his team join him this weekend.
AAA: I truthfully didn't think Easton had a shot at winning this one. I thought, even if Parkland were to run poorly, they'll still win. Its always crazy how things can change so quickly at districts. After not being close all year, Easton flipped the script on Parkland, led by a shocking winner in Cosmo Cardone. I saw an update on social media that said that an Easton runner had won, and I just assumed it was Ozgar. This was a crazy impressive run for Easton and with this momentum, watch for them to try and crack the top 7 at states in AAA.
D10-
A: Cochranton avoids the upset from West Middlesex but both teams comfortably make it through to next weekend, with the junior Troy Hart just barely coming away with the individual win.
AA: In heartbreaking fashion, General McLane misses out on a state spot off a 6th man tiebreaker from North East. I'm shocked that Lewis, who has been undefeated to this point, only got 3rd. With the times as slow as they are, its hard to tell how aggressively the top guys went after it. Jonah Powell and his Grove City boys both pick up wins, and will gear up for Greensburg Salem. Although their GM squad didn't advance, Nate Price and Dylan Throop will look for big races this weekend.
D9-
A: Elk County Catholic survives a big scare from a solid Cranberry squad, prevailing 54-56. Just like we expected it to, ECC's 5th man almost bit them in the rear end, but they hold onto the district title. Both squads advance through to Hershey, while the individuals are headlined by the Smethport duo of Christian Tanner and Darion Gregory, who finished 1-2.
AA: Punxsutawney Area secures the lone team state spot with just 29 points.
D8-
AAA: Taylor Allderdice comfortably advances through for yet another year, with just 24 points.
D7-
A: I knew Hessler and Routledge were the top 2 runners in this field, but I expected Routledge to flip the script on Hessler from last race. I was wrong. Despite Routledge fading back to 3rd (great race for Zachary Gould), his Winchester Thurston squad comfortably takes the district title with just 32 points. I simply can't wait for this rematch between them and Jenkintown this weekend. There was also craziness for the last 2 team spots. 3rd through 5th were separated by just a point and Shady Side came up short on yet another 6th man tiebreaker. Big shoutout to Eden Christian Academy for the big upset to finish 3rd.
AA: In no surprise, Greensburg Salem, Indiana, and New Castle all advance out of AA. Greensburg Salem looked even better than I thought, while Indiana taking 2nd over New Castle was slightly surprising. New Castle hasn't seen very stiff competition this fall though, so I was glad they still held their own and comfortably made it through. Since the GS duo of Binda and Brown have been a little up and down this year, I gave Ford the title because of his momentum. But the GS boys proved me wrong. They're clearly in top form and are ready to get their revenge on Grove City this weekend.
AAA: Of course, the madness was on full display in the most powerful district in all of PA (although certainly not the deepest). North Allegheny has a lot to be happy about, and some things to be worried about. With Kinne's struggles, NA was still able to comfortably take down Mt. Lebo and Seneca Valley by about 20 points or so, with SV taking back the runner up spot over Mt. Lebo from last week. The big story in this one, outside of Kinne, is the big bounce back race for Seth Ketler. He has been a huge question mark all season, and with this 4th place finish, he is primed to help Seneca Valley solidify a place in the top 3 or 4 at states. Not sure what to make of the Kinne situation. While this consistency problem may strip his status as title contender, as long as he can deliver a top 10 finish for NA, I still think they have a reasonable possibility of winning the title. Its crazy to think that a kid who was #2 on his team all season is now the favorite for a state title in AAA? You go Dan McGoey!
D6-
A: Penns Valley advances as team champions, but the big story in this one is Colton Sands. He finishes 4th in 17:50, almost a minute back from his teammate and district champion Brendan Colwell. Hopefully this is a temporary illness that will be easily recoverable from before this weekend. If not, Then Jack Miller's quest for state gold just got that much easier.
AA: Nothing too exciting here. Garrett Baublitz and Central Cambria both cruise to district titles.
AAA: Team wise, all State College. Individual wise, all Mifflin County. SC puts 4 in the top 6 en route to an easy district title as they gear up for Hershey. I was hoping they'd have a slightly better low stick for them to crack into the top 5 in AAA, but nonetheless they are still very dangerous. Brayden Harris and Chayce Macknair are just absolutely rolling right now. The teammate duo went 1-2, beating the field by over 40 seconds! These two are absolutely in contention for top 15 finishes at Hershey.
D5-
A: Ian Zimmerman and the Northern Bradford boys cruise to easy district titles. Zimmerman is a medal contender in the A race.
D4-
A: The Wyalusing Valley Area boys delivered a solid performance this past week, holding off a very hot South Williamsport squad to take the district title. While I still think WVA squad has still taken a step back, their 5th man was better at their district meet, with freshman Caleb Stoddard making a big jump individually. If Stoddard makes another jump this weekend, I still think WVA has the chance to sneak into 3rd at states. Ethan Knoebel responded well after losing to Hess in his league meet, taking down the WVA trio of Heeman, Laudermilch, and Patton for the individual win. Knoebel has tons of upside heading into this weekend, and I think he might be a deep sleeper for a top 7 or so finish.
AA: In a thrilling photo finish, Alejandro Quintana outleaned Jacob Hess for the title. While I had these two both finishing 1-2, I expected Hess to pull away and win the title semi-comfortably. Quintana is filling Quinn Serfass's shoes very well, and is primed to land high in the medals with the momentum he'll carry into Hershey. As for Hess, I still think he's one of the top runners in AA as just a freshman, and he'll be looking to shock all of AA with his quietly dominant Lewisburg squad. Speaking of which, they cruised to a district title by 30 points over Milton Area, the 2nd qualifiers. I expected Warrior Run to be better in this one.
D3-
A: In brutal conditions at Big Spring, Fairfield took the team title, and Mitchell Brett of Kutztown Area claimed the titles in A. Mitchell Brett is a deep sleeper for the medals as just a sophomore.
AA: In all of the craziness of district weekend, this was one where things played out mostly as expected. Ben Kuhn held off Logan Horst for the individual title, while York Suburban outlasted Wyomissing for the title, with Big Spring snagging the last team spot.
AAA: We knew coming into this race that it would probably be one of, if not the craziest district race in PA. In an absolute shock, after the dust settled, Twin Valley, Chambersburg, and Palmyra were outside of the top 5, with poor performances. Carlisle snuck in, but did not live up to their title hype. Hershey, after being doubted all year long, snuck in for the last spot. Warwick, as expected, did not quite have the firepower to win, but were strong enough to find themselves as runners up in the craziness. And finally, after a hot start to the season, Cedar Crest reminded us just how good they could be, taking the district title by over 40 points. This one was truthfully just crazy. Given that the conditions of the race were truly brutal and unpleasant, the fortitude of Cedar Crest has me very excited for next weekend. They were very deep and tough, as their #6 man Ryan Scicchitano was 30 places ahead of any other team's 5th man! This was a big statement from Cedar Crest. As for Twin Valley, I'm disappointed. In terms of raw talent they had the chance to claim the title. But, as we saw throughout the season, they were plagued with consistency issues, and when they needed it the most, they failed to deliver. They have plenty of great individuals and have great DMR potential for the winter. The individuals up front were so deep. I was shocked when I saw Dorenkamp took the title, but at the same time, the more I thought about it, the more plausible it seemed. Go look at the top 7. Any of those guys have a chance to medal this weekend. D3 guys have all shown glimpses of brilliance this fall, but none have been consistent in doing so.
D2-
A: Healey outkicks Liam Mead for the team title, but Montrose looks incredibly solid, scoring just 30 points for the team title. Not sure if Healey just chose to sit on Mead and kick, or if Mead really gave him a run for his money. Either way, I think Mead has top 10 potential, and with Wyalusing Valley looking a little shaky, I think Montrose jumps into position to have the best chance to break up a 1-2 finish from Jenkintown and Winchester Thurston. I expected a bit of a more dominant performance from Healey, as a state title for Miller seems to become more and more imminent.
AA: Mitchell Rome dominates the field, taking down a host of Holy Redeemer boys by over 40 seconds. Rome looked a little flat to kick off the season without his usual training crew of state medalists, but he has rounded into form really well at this point in the season. As expected, Holy Redeemer rolls to a title, with Abington Heights taking the 2nd spot. Its hard to tell just how good this Holy Redeemer squad is, and with how packed AA is right now, they could finish anywhere from 4th to 9th.
AAA: No big surprises here either, as Wirth and Burkes lead Wallenpaupack to a district title with a 1-2 finish. Excited to see where Wirth, the recent University of Cincinnati commit, ends up in the AAA race this weekend.
D1-
A: In probably the least surprising district result from the week, the Jenkintown boys roll to a 15 point victory, with Miller cruising to a 15:59 victory. The times behind Miller though were very impressive, as their top 4 all finished at or below 16:21. If their 5th man was a little stronger, they would've made it out of AAA! Frankly, I think the Drakes of Jenkintown are going to ride this top 4 to a state title, and at this rate, there is little anyone can do to stop them. Buckle up Winchester Thurston, because this is turning more into a David vs Goliath than a rivalry.
AA: Credit to Shane Cohen, as I predicted against him repeating his district title. But he retained it, taking down Jack Brosius (my champion) with a lean and just a fraction of a second. PJP rolls to the title with 25 points though, and are quietly a solid team to watch in AA.
AAA: Obviously last, but not least. In the craziness that was District 1, it was as packed, deep, and drama-filled as we expected it to be. Just for statistical comparison, here is the average time of the 6th place team over the past years...
2017-Central Bucks East (16:34)
2016-Spring Ford (16:32)
2015-Spring Ford (16:33)
2014-Central Bucks East (16:23)-- Two teams with 16:30 averages got in
2013-Bensalem (16:25)
2012-Pennsbury (16:23)
2011-Haverford Township (16:41)
2010-Conestoga (16:38)
This year, the top 11 teams all averaged under 16:30.
Great Valley, the first team out, finishing 7th, averaged 16:21.
And will be sitting at home this weekend.
In a year where we saw a major lack of firepower up front in District 1, it was quickly made up for by probably the deepest district race in D1 history. There were many teams in this race that, any other year, would be contenders for a top 5 finish at states. This year however, are sitting at home. These squads should not hang their heads. Like many of the teams out in D3, there was simply madness with so many good teams this year, and someone had to be sent home. To all the teams in D1 and D3, and those in other districts who were sent home with their hearts broken, use this as fuel for the future. As I said with Twin Valley, teams like Lower Merion, West Chester East, and Great Valley have major potential for some relays in the winter...
But back to the teams that did make it. We saw the dominant Dwest, and not the shaky Dwest, as they rolled to a district title, averaging 15:51 and scoring just 71 points. I think if Kinne isn't healthy, this squad has the best chance to take the title. I know LaSalle will be up there, but I feel very confident in the Whippets after this performance. How about those boys from Unionville? Damn, did they kill it. I repeatedly mentioned that I thought they had the raw talent to finish 2nd, but I didn't think they'd tie it together. They actually destroyed Dwest through 4 guys, and lost it on their lack of a 5th man. With that being said, the jump that their 5th man did make, Jarrett Conway, was a big one. If he can come up big again next weekend, Unionville could shock some people. I gotta give credit to Council Rock South. I thought their league performance may have been a fluke, but they came out and took care of business. The same goes for OJR and Haverford. Haverford was expected to make it through, and they did not crack under the pressure, and finished a respectable 4th. OJR silenced my doubts, riding a great performance from all 5 of their guys as they snagged the last spot from Great Valley and Henderson. The big shock was CB East. I truly have no idea where that came from (shoutout RJJL for the call). They were inconsistent, shaky, and unpredictable throughout the season. But when it mattered most, they came up big, and shocked a lot of people.
Individually, obviously, this was lacking up front. But that doesn't mean it wasn't exciting. With Demis, Walker, McComb, and Sewall all sticking around in the final straightaway, Walker snuck away for the win, with Demis and McComb faltering, and Sewall making up major ground in the last seconds. It was a thrilling finish, and with Unionville putting 3 in the top 6, I wonder if people were worried about them stealing the title at first. All of these top 4 are obvious medal threats next weekend, and I'm excited to see how they stack up against the western PA guys.
Start tuning in for the state predictions throughout the week! Love you guys!
-The RunningHub
D12-
A:Unsurprisingly, Masterman cruises through to states.
AA: Crazy, crazy upset for Lansdale Catholic. Not only did they knock O'Hara out of states, but they shockingly stole the district title from Engineering & Science.
AAA: No shocker here, as LaSalle cruises through with 15 points. LaSalle has dropped in some people's eyes over the past few weeks, but with every top team having their struggles, I think they're still in contention to win this thing.
D11-
A: Shenandoah Valley ran great to grab the lone state spot by just 2 points over Moravian, while Wayne Reilly looked great in his solo cruise to a district title.
AA: In one of the craziest district races in PA, while Blue Mountain grabbed the title, the battle for the 2nd spot was insane, with a huge upset squad Notre Dame Green Pond taking the second spot. 2nd through 7th were separated by only 16 points! John Koons took down favorite Kevin Haas for the title, and will have his team join him this weekend.
AAA: I truthfully didn't think Easton had a shot at winning this one. I thought, even if Parkland were to run poorly, they'll still win. Its always crazy how things can change so quickly at districts. After not being close all year, Easton flipped the script on Parkland, led by a shocking winner in Cosmo Cardone. I saw an update on social media that said that an Easton runner had won, and I just assumed it was Ozgar. This was a crazy impressive run for Easton and with this momentum, watch for them to try and crack the top 7 at states in AAA.
D10-
A: Cochranton avoids the upset from West Middlesex but both teams comfortably make it through to next weekend, with the junior Troy Hart just barely coming away with the individual win.
AA: In heartbreaking fashion, General McLane misses out on a state spot off a 6th man tiebreaker from North East. I'm shocked that Lewis, who has been undefeated to this point, only got 3rd. With the times as slow as they are, its hard to tell how aggressively the top guys went after it. Jonah Powell and his Grove City boys both pick up wins, and will gear up for Greensburg Salem. Although their GM squad didn't advance, Nate Price and Dylan Throop will look for big races this weekend.
D9-
A: Elk County Catholic survives a big scare from a solid Cranberry squad, prevailing 54-56. Just like we expected it to, ECC's 5th man almost bit them in the rear end, but they hold onto the district title. Both squads advance through to Hershey, while the individuals are headlined by the Smethport duo of Christian Tanner and Darion Gregory, who finished 1-2.
AA: Punxsutawney Area secures the lone team state spot with just 29 points.
D8-
AAA: Taylor Allderdice comfortably advances through for yet another year, with just 24 points.
D7-
A: I knew Hessler and Routledge were the top 2 runners in this field, but I expected Routledge to flip the script on Hessler from last race. I was wrong. Despite Routledge fading back to 3rd (great race for Zachary Gould), his Winchester Thurston squad comfortably takes the district title with just 32 points. I simply can't wait for this rematch between them and Jenkintown this weekend. There was also craziness for the last 2 team spots. 3rd through 5th were separated by just a point and Shady Side came up short on yet another 6th man tiebreaker. Big shoutout to Eden Christian Academy for the big upset to finish 3rd.
AA: In no surprise, Greensburg Salem, Indiana, and New Castle all advance out of AA. Greensburg Salem looked even better than I thought, while Indiana taking 2nd over New Castle was slightly surprising. New Castle hasn't seen very stiff competition this fall though, so I was glad they still held their own and comfortably made it through. Since the GS duo of Binda and Brown have been a little up and down this year, I gave Ford the title because of his momentum. But the GS boys proved me wrong. They're clearly in top form and are ready to get their revenge on Grove City this weekend.
AAA: Of course, the madness was on full display in the most powerful district in all of PA (although certainly not the deepest). North Allegheny has a lot to be happy about, and some things to be worried about. With Kinne's struggles, NA was still able to comfortably take down Mt. Lebo and Seneca Valley by about 20 points or so, with SV taking back the runner up spot over Mt. Lebo from last week. The big story in this one, outside of Kinne, is the big bounce back race for Seth Ketler. He has been a huge question mark all season, and with this 4th place finish, he is primed to help Seneca Valley solidify a place in the top 3 or 4 at states. Not sure what to make of the Kinne situation. While this consistency problem may strip his status as title contender, as long as he can deliver a top 10 finish for NA, I still think they have a reasonable possibility of winning the title. Its crazy to think that a kid who was #2 on his team all season is now the favorite for a state title in AAA? You go Dan McGoey!
D6-
A: Penns Valley advances as team champions, but the big story in this one is Colton Sands. He finishes 4th in 17:50, almost a minute back from his teammate and district champion Brendan Colwell. Hopefully this is a temporary illness that will be easily recoverable from before this weekend. If not, Then Jack Miller's quest for state gold just got that much easier.
AA: Nothing too exciting here. Garrett Baublitz and Central Cambria both cruise to district titles.
AAA: Team wise, all State College. Individual wise, all Mifflin County. SC puts 4 in the top 6 en route to an easy district title as they gear up for Hershey. I was hoping they'd have a slightly better low stick for them to crack into the top 5 in AAA, but nonetheless they are still very dangerous. Brayden Harris and Chayce Macknair are just absolutely rolling right now. The teammate duo went 1-2, beating the field by over 40 seconds! These two are absolutely in contention for top 15 finishes at Hershey.
D5-
A: Ian Zimmerman and the Northern Bradford boys cruise to easy district titles. Zimmerman is a medal contender in the A race.
D4-
A: The Wyalusing Valley Area boys delivered a solid performance this past week, holding off a very hot South Williamsport squad to take the district title. While I still think WVA squad has still taken a step back, their 5th man was better at their district meet, with freshman Caleb Stoddard making a big jump individually. If Stoddard makes another jump this weekend, I still think WVA has the chance to sneak into 3rd at states. Ethan Knoebel responded well after losing to Hess in his league meet, taking down the WVA trio of Heeman, Laudermilch, and Patton for the individual win. Knoebel has tons of upside heading into this weekend, and I think he might be a deep sleeper for a top 7 or so finish.
AA: In a thrilling photo finish, Alejandro Quintana outleaned Jacob Hess for the title. While I had these two both finishing 1-2, I expected Hess to pull away and win the title semi-comfortably. Quintana is filling Quinn Serfass's shoes very well, and is primed to land high in the medals with the momentum he'll carry into Hershey. As for Hess, I still think he's one of the top runners in AA as just a freshman, and he'll be looking to shock all of AA with his quietly dominant Lewisburg squad. Speaking of which, they cruised to a district title by 30 points over Milton Area, the 2nd qualifiers. I expected Warrior Run to be better in this one.
D3-
A: In brutal conditions at Big Spring, Fairfield took the team title, and Mitchell Brett of Kutztown Area claimed the titles in A. Mitchell Brett is a deep sleeper for the medals as just a sophomore.
AA: In all of the craziness of district weekend, this was one where things played out mostly as expected. Ben Kuhn held off Logan Horst for the individual title, while York Suburban outlasted Wyomissing for the title, with Big Spring snagging the last team spot.
AAA: We knew coming into this race that it would probably be one of, if not the craziest district race in PA. In an absolute shock, after the dust settled, Twin Valley, Chambersburg, and Palmyra were outside of the top 5, with poor performances. Carlisle snuck in, but did not live up to their title hype. Hershey, after being doubted all year long, snuck in for the last spot. Warwick, as expected, did not quite have the firepower to win, but were strong enough to find themselves as runners up in the craziness. And finally, after a hot start to the season, Cedar Crest reminded us just how good they could be, taking the district title by over 40 points. This one was truthfully just crazy. Given that the conditions of the race were truly brutal and unpleasant, the fortitude of Cedar Crest has me very excited for next weekend. They were very deep and tough, as their #6 man Ryan Scicchitano was 30 places ahead of any other team's 5th man! This was a big statement from Cedar Crest. As for Twin Valley, I'm disappointed. In terms of raw talent they had the chance to claim the title. But, as we saw throughout the season, they were plagued with consistency issues, and when they needed it the most, they failed to deliver. They have plenty of great individuals and have great DMR potential for the winter. The individuals up front were so deep. I was shocked when I saw Dorenkamp took the title, but at the same time, the more I thought about it, the more plausible it seemed. Go look at the top 7. Any of those guys have a chance to medal this weekend. D3 guys have all shown glimpses of brilliance this fall, but none have been consistent in doing so.
D2-
A: Healey outkicks Liam Mead for the team title, but Montrose looks incredibly solid, scoring just 30 points for the team title. Not sure if Healey just chose to sit on Mead and kick, or if Mead really gave him a run for his money. Either way, I think Mead has top 10 potential, and with Wyalusing Valley looking a little shaky, I think Montrose jumps into position to have the best chance to break up a 1-2 finish from Jenkintown and Winchester Thurston. I expected a bit of a more dominant performance from Healey, as a state title for Miller seems to become more and more imminent.
AA: Mitchell Rome dominates the field, taking down a host of Holy Redeemer boys by over 40 seconds. Rome looked a little flat to kick off the season without his usual training crew of state medalists, but he has rounded into form really well at this point in the season. As expected, Holy Redeemer rolls to a title, with Abington Heights taking the 2nd spot. Its hard to tell just how good this Holy Redeemer squad is, and with how packed AA is right now, they could finish anywhere from 4th to 9th.
AAA: No big surprises here either, as Wirth and Burkes lead Wallenpaupack to a district title with a 1-2 finish. Excited to see where Wirth, the recent University of Cincinnati commit, ends up in the AAA race this weekend.
D1-
A: In probably the least surprising district result from the week, the Jenkintown boys roll to a 15 point victory, with Miller cruising to a 15:59 victory. The times behind Miller though were very impressive, as their top 4 all finished at or below 16:21. If their 5th man was a little stronger, they would've made it out of AAA! Frankly, I think the Drakes of Jenkintown are going to ride this top 4 to a state title, and at this rate, there is little anyone can do to stop them. Buckle up Winchester Thurston, because this is turning more into a David vs Goliath than a rivalry.
AA: Credit to Shane Cohen, as I predicted against him repeating his district title. But he retained it, taking down Jack Brosius (my champion) with a lean and just a fraction of a second. PJP rolls to the title with 25 points though, and are quietly a solid team to watch in AA.
AAA: Obviously last, but not least. In the craziness that was District 1, it was as packed, deep, and drama-filled as we expected it to be. Just for statistical comparison, here is the average time of the 6th place team over the past years...
2017-Central Bucks East (16:34)
2016-Spring Ford (16:32)
2015-Spring Ford (16:33)
2014-Central Bucks East (16:23)-- Two teams with 16:30 averages got in
2013-Bensalem (16:25)
2012-Pennsbury (16:23)
2011-Haverford Township (16:41)
2010-Conestoga (16:38)
This year, the top 11 teams all averaged under 16:30.
Great Valley, the first team out, finishing 7th, averaged 16:21.
And will be sitting at home this weekend.
In a year where we saw a major lack of firepower up front in District 1, it was quickly made up for by probably the deepest district race in D1 history. There were many teams in this race that, any other year, would be contenders for a top 5 finish at states. This year however, are sitting at home. These squads should not hang their heads. Like many of the teams out in D3, there was simply madness with so many good teams this year, and someone had to be sent home. To all the teams in D1 and D3, and those in other districts who were sent home with their hearts broken, use this as fuel for the future. As I said with Twin Valley, teams like Lower Merion, West Chester East, and Great Valley have major potential for some relays in the winter...
But back to the teams that did make it. We saw the dominant Dwest, and not the shaky Dwest, as they rolled to a district title, averaging 15:51 and scoring just 71 points. I think if Kinne isn't healthy, this squad has the best chance to take the title. I know LaSalle will be up there, but I feel very confident in the Whippets after this performance. How about those boys from Unionville? Damn, did they kill it. I repeatedly mentioned that I thought they had the raw talent to finish 2nd, but I didn't think they'd tie it together. They actually destroyed Dwest through 4 guys, and lost it on their lack of a 5th man. With that being said, the jump that their 5th man did make, Jarrett Conway, was a big one. If he can come up big again next weekend, Unionville could shock some people. I gotta give credit to Council Rock South. I thought their league performance may have been a fluke, but they came out and took care of business. The same goes for OJR and Haverford. Haverford was expected to make it through, and they did not crack under the pressure, and finished a respectable 4th. OJR silenced my doubts, riding a great performance from all 5 of their guys as they snagged the last spot from Great Valley and Henderson. The big shock was CB East. I truly have no idea where that came from (shoutout RJJL for the call). They were inconsistent, shaky, and unpredictable throughout the season. But when it mattered most, they came up big, and shocked a lot of people.
Individually, obviously, this was lacking up front. But that doesn't mean it wasn't exciting. With Demis, Walker, McComb, and Sewall all sticking around in the final straightaway, Walker snuck away for the win, with Demis and McComb faltering, and Sewall making up major ground in the last seconds. It was a thrilling finish, and with Unionville putting 3 in the top 6, I wonder if people were worried about them stealing the title at first. All of these top 4 are obvious medal threats next weekend, and I'm excited to see how they stack up against the western PA guys.
Start tuning in for the state predictions throughout the week! Love you guys!
-The RunningHub
Thursday, October 25, 2018
PIAA District 1 Predictions
D1 A: (Team Spots:1/Individual Spots:5)
1st-Jenkintown
1-Jack Miller
2-Carter Geer
3-Pat Wagner
4-Luke Miller
5-Travis Geer
6-Aiden Michell
7-Sanjay George
8-Jack Samms
9-Matt Visomirski
10-Matthew Birch
11-Ian Harrington
12-Phillip Rogers
D1 AA: (Team Spots:1/Individual Spots:5)
1st-Pope John Paul II
2nd-Pottsgrove
1-Jack Brosius
2-Shane Cohen
3-Shane Coll
4-Jack Phillips
5-LaRee Hills
6-Simon Keen
7-Kaden Buchler
8-Christian Kruse
D1 AAA: (Team Spots:6/Individual Spots:30)
On paper, after spending a lot of time with this one, I think I feel comfortable with my six teams. After a lot of time looking this up and down, I think these six teams, for various reasons, from a really good low stick to having a very reliable group of 5, are the best 6 teams for me to pick.
Obviously, its going to be way crazier, and this is going to be horribly wrong, but eh, I tried. Dwest was honestly one of the harder parts with this one. I truthfully meant to have Barnhill further up, but I decided to stick with it. I don't think Dwest is in any danger of losing, but if they run like they did at Manhattan (which is the lean I took here), I think its going to be close. Especially now that I have this all down on paper, I think Unionville is a 5th man away from winning this thing. Since I know this is going to cause some drama, I'll give you my reasons for the why I left out the teams I did.
OJR- Figured I might take some heat for this, but I leaned towards it. I don't think they have that much firepower up behind Lantz, and anytime you don't have low sticks in this meet, you need to cut your scoring off fast, and I just don't think this team is quite deep enough to sneak in, though it'll be close.
WCE-Big wildcard here. They ran well at Chesmonts, but there's some big questions around this team. Lewin is up and down, and when he races poorly, its usually a quick drop off. While the team is very tight, I think this group of guys is pretty far back from Lewin. If it all comes together tomorrow, I think they make it at 4th or so. Just a lot of shakiness from this team, and even more importantly, even when you have your bad days, they still need to be at least decent results. WCE lost to North Penn at Manhattan.
Methacton/Central Bucks East- Once I got here, it was pretty easy. On paper, both teams are extremely well-balanced, but I just don't think they have it. Whether it just be a pure lack of firepower (Methacton), or some major consistency issues (Central Bucks East), I think these teams, along with North Penn, are going to be short of Hershey. But we will see. Soon.
I also want to apologize, I was hoping to have this mini analysis for all my district previews, but the end of the week really snuck up on me, and before I knew it, I was typing up predictions the mornings before these meets started. I wanted to prioritize getting them out to you. With some downtime, I should have the weekend district meet previews out tomorrow with some time to discuss before Saturday. Thanks for your understanding and cooperation!
1st-Downingtown West = 120 or so
2nd-Haverford= 140 or so
3rd-Unionville= 170 or so
4th-Great Valley= 200 or so
5th-Council Rock South=200 or so
6th-Lower Merion=210 or so
7th-Owen J Roberts=275 or so
8th-West Chester East=275 or so
9th-Methacton
10th-Central Bucks East
1-Christian McComb
2-Cole Walker
3-Payton Sewall
4-Noah Demis
5-Jonah Hoey
6-Mike Donnelly
7-Josh Lewin
8-Joey Litvin
9-Jason Cornelison
10-Patrick Theveny
11-Ethan McIntyre
12-Linus Blatz
13-Jack McManus
14-Collin Ochs
15-Evan Peetros
16-Seth Hoffritz
17-Kyle Kutney
18-Isaac Valderrabano
19-Charlie Hermann
20-Cole Driver
21-Calvin Pash
22-Matt Varghese
23-Samir Razi
24-Tyler Clifford
25-Andrew Gillespie
26-Aidan Tomov
27-Riley Casey
28-Nick Rhodes
29-James Conway
30-Brendan Duff
31-Devon Comber
32-Aidan Barnhill
33-Kevin Wagner
34-David Brunton
35-Solomon Thistle
36-Joe Mazza
37-Joe Chamoun
38-Christopher Sears
39-Ethan Zeh
40-Gavin Maxwell
41-Evan Campbell
42-Hayden Coates
43-Brendan Campbell
44-Rahman Mohammed
45-Ethan Saville
46-Ben Datte
47-David Endres
48-Luke Cimakasky
49-Josh Fingerhut
50-John Zawislak
51-Benjamin Klinger
52-Shane Goldman
53-Vikas Miller
54-Luke Miles
55-Luke Talham
56-Jalen Chin
57-Tyler Daley
1st-Jenkintown
1-Jack Miller
2-Carter Geer
3-Pat Wagner
4-Luke Miller
5-Travis Geer
6-Aiden Michell
7-Sanjay George
8-Jack Samms
9-Matt Visomirski
10-Matthew Birch
11-Ian Harrington
12-Phillip Rogers
D1 AA: (Team Spots:1/Individual Spots:5)
1st-Pope John Paul II
2nd-Pottsgrove
1-Jack Brosius
2-Shane Cohen
3-Shane Coll
4-Jack Phillips
5-LaRee Hills
6-Simon Keen
7-Kaden Buchler
8-Christian Kruse
D1 AAA: (Team Spots:6/Individual Spots:30)
On paper, after spending a lot of time with this one, I think I feel comfortable with my six teams. After a lot of time looking this up and down, I think these six teams, for various reasons, from a really good low stick to having a very reliable group of 5, are the best 6 teams for me to pick.
Obviously, its going to be way crazier, and this is going to be horribly wrong, but eh, I tried. Dwest was honestly one of the harder parts with this one. I truthfully meant to have Barnhill further up, but I decided to stick with it. I don't think Dwest is in any danger of losing, but if they run like they did at Manhattan (which is the lean I took here), I think its going to be close. Especially now that I have this all down on paper, I think Unionville is a 5th man away from winning this thing. Since I know this is going to cause some drama, I'll give you my reasons for the why I left out the teams I did.
OJR- Figured I might take some heat for this, but I leaned towards it. I don't think they have that much firepower up behind Lantz, and anytime you don't have low sticks in this meet, you need to cut your scoring off fast, and I just don't think this team is quite deep enough to sneak in, though it'll be close.
WCE-Big wildcard here. They ran well at Chesmonts, but there's some big questions around this team. Lewin is up and down, and when he races poorly, its usually a quick drop off. While the team is very tight, I think this group of guys is pretty far back from Lewin. If it all comes together tomorrow, I think they make it at 4th or so. Just a lot of shakiness from this team, and even more importantly, even when you have your bad days, they still need to be at least decent results. WCE lost to North Penn at Manhattan.
Methacton/Central Bucks East- Once I got here, it was pretty easy. On paper, both teams are extremely well-balanced, but I just don't think they have it. Whether it just be a pure lack of firepower (Methacton), or some major consistency issues (Central Bucks East), I think these teams, along with North Penn, are going to be short of Hershey. But we will see. Soon.
I also want to apologize, I was hoping to have this mini analysis for all my district previews, but the end of the week really snuck up on me, and before I knew it, I was typing up predictions the mornings before these meets started. I wanted to prioritize getting them out to you. With some downtime, I should have the weekend district meet previews out tomorrow with some time to discuss before Saturday. Thanks for your understanding and cooperation!
1st-Downingtown West = 120 or so
2nd-Haverford= 140 or so
3rd-Unionville= 170 or so
4th-Great Valley= 200 or so
5th-Council Rock South=200 or so
6th-Lower Merion=210 or so
7th-Owen J Roberts=275 or so
8th-West Chester East=275 or so
9th-Methacton
10th-Central Bucks East
1-Christian McComb
2-Cole Walker
3-Payton Sewall
4-Noah Demis
5-Jonah Hoey
6-Mike Donnelly
7-Josh Lewin
8-Joey Litvin
9-Jason Cornelison
10-Patrick Theveny
11-Ethan McIntyre
12-Linus Blatz
13-Jack McManus
14-Collin Ochs
15-Evan Peetros
16-Seth Hoffritz
17-Kyle Kutney
18-Isaac Valderrabano
19-Charlie Hermann
20-Cole Driver
21-Calvin Pash
22-Matt Varghese
23-Samir Razi
24-Tyler Clifford
25-Andrew Gillespie
26-Aidan Tomov
27-Riley Casey
28-Nick Rhodes
29-James Conway
30-Brendan Duff
31-Devon Comber
32-Aidan Barnhill
33-Kevin Wagner
34-David Brunton
35-Solomon Thistle
36-Joe Mazza
37-Joe Chamoun
38-Christopher Sears
39-Ethan Zeh
40-Gavin Maxwell
41-Evan Campbell
42-Hayden Coates
43-Brendan Campbell
44-Rahman Mohammed
45-Ethan Saville
46-Ben Datte
47-David Endres
48-Luke Cimakasky
49-Josh Fingerhut
50-John Zawislak
51-Benjamin Klinger
52-Shane Goldman
53-Vikas Miller
54-Luke Miles
55-Luke Talham
56-Jalen Chin
57-Tyler Daley
PIAA District 7 (WPIAL) AAA Predictions
D7 AAA: (Team Spots:3/Individual Spots:15)
1st-North Allegheny
2nd-Mount Lebanon
3rd-Seneca Valley
4th-Upper St. Clair
1-Zach Kinne
2-Patrick Anderson
3-Daniel McGoey
4-Christian Fitch
5-Zach Leachman
6-Sam Owori
7-Peter Consentino
8-Connor Volk-Klos
9-Aden Dressler
10-Dalton Kalbaugh
11-Seth Ketler
12-Zack Marmol
13-Skyler Vavro
14-Andrew Kollitz
15-Robert O'Brien
16-Alex Brokaw
17-Alex Shaw
18-Justin Carlson
19-Stephen Nalepa
20-Eli Allridge
21-Joey Buehner
22-Stephen Nalepa
23-Ethan James
24-Luke Turkovich
25-Teddy Boehm
26-Matt Gust
27-Joey Cafaro
28-Connor Foody
29-Dominic Spatolisano
1st-North Allegheny
2nd-Mount Lebanon
3rd-Seneca Valley
4th-Upper St. Clair
1-Zach Kinne
2-Patrick Anderson
3-Daniel McGoey
4-Christian Fitch
5-Zach Leachman
6-Sam Owori
7-Peter Consentino
8-Connor Volk-Klos
10-Dalton Kalbaugh
11-Seth Ketler
12-Zack Marmol
13-Skyler Vavro
14-Andrew Kollitz
15-Robert O'Brien
16-Alex Brokaw
17-Alex Shaw
18-Justin Carlson
19-Stephen Nalepa
20-Eli Allridge
21-Joey Buehner
22-Stephen Nalepa
23-Ethan James
24-Luke Turkovich
25-Teddy Boehm
26-Matt Gust
27-Joey Cafaro
28-Connor Foody
29-Dominic Spatolisano
PIAA District 7 (WPIAL) A and AA Predictions
Check out Jiminy Cricket's WPIAL predictions as well in the comments of the District 12 prediction post!
D7 A: (Team Spots:4/Individual Spots:20)
1st-Winchester Thurston
2nd-Riverview
3rd-Shenango
4th-Neshanock
5th-Chartiers Houston
1-Scott Routledge
2-Adam Hessler
3-Sean Heintzleman
4-Mason Ochs
5-Patrick Malone
6-CJ Singleton
7-Colby Belczyk
8-Lukas Dunaway
9-Gus Robinson
10-Gideon Deasy
11-Matthew Rees
12-Tyler Lemak
13-Charles Roberts
14-Desmond Corrdado
15-Benjamin Bermann
16-Eric Gronbeck
17-Adam Lauer
18-Ian Jackson
19-Bryce Patterson
20-Finn Sweeney
21-Jensen Lewis
22-Noah Black
23-Wesley Rodu
24-Mat Clark
25-Leo Liu
26-Thomas Pressner
27-Ty Kent
28-Alex Siege
29-Jackson Habala
30-Aidan Barker
31-Lucas Wilton
D7 AA: (Team Spots:3/Individual Spots:15)
1st-Greensburg Salem
2nd-New Castle
3rd-Indiana Area
4th-Uniontown
1-Daniel Ford
2-Cameron Binda
3-Mark Brown
4-Jack Aulbach
5-Lucas Pajak
6-Anthony Litrenta
7-Zach Connor
8-Dylan Binda
9-Joey Budjos
10-Zachary Gould
11-Zac Gibson
12-Matt Berzonsky
13-Sam Killinger
14-Jonah Miller
15-Ethan Gamble
16-Logan Moust
17-Josh Yourish
18-Iago Jopia
19-CJ Thimons
20-Mason Jobe
21-Will Lamb
22-Braden Zukowski
23-Julian Yerger
24-Joseph O'Connell
25-Brendan Kopich
26-Ryan Hunyadi
27-Eric Obringer
D7 A: (Team Spots:4/Individual Spots:20)
1st-Winchester Thurston
2nd-Riverview
3rd-Shenango
4th-Neshanock
5th-Chartiers Houston
1-Scott Routledge
2-Adam Hessler
3-Sean Heintzleman
4-Mason Ochs
5-Patrick Malone
6-CJ Singleton
7-Colby Belczyk
8-Lukas Dunaway
9-Gus Robinson
10-Gideon Deasy
11-Matthew Rees
12-Tyler Lemak
13-Charles Roberts
14-Desmond Corrdado
15-Benjamin Bermann
16-Eric Gronbeck
17-Adam Lauer
18-Ian Jackson
19-Bryce Patterson
20-Finn Sweeney
21-Jensen Lewis
22-Noah Black
23-Wesley Rodu
24-Mat Clark
25-Leo Liu
26-Thomas Pressner
27-Ty Kent
28-Alex Siege
29-Jackson Habala
30-Aidan Barker
31-Lucas Wilton
D7 AA: (Team Spots:3/Individual Spots:15)
1st-Greensburg Salem
2nd-New Castle
3rd-Indiana Area
4th-Uniontown
1-Daniel Ford
2-Cameron Binda
3-Mark Brown
4-Jack Aulbach
5-Lucas Pajak
6-Anthony Litrenta
7-Zach Connor
8-Dylan Binda
9-Joey Budjos
10-Zachary Gould
11-Zac Gibson
12-Matt Berzonsky
13-Sam Killinger
14-Jonah Miller
15-Ethan Gamble
16-Logan Moust
17-Josh Yourish
18-Iago Jopia
19-CJ Thimons
20-Mason Jobe
21-Will Lamb
22-Braden Zukowski
23-Julian Yerger
24-Joseph O'Connell
25-Brendan Kopich
26-Ryan Hunyadi
27-Eric Obringer
PIAA District 4 Predictions
Really going to be pumping these predictions out to get them all in before they go off today!
D4 A: (Team Spots:1/Individual Spots:5)
1st-Wyalusing Valley Area
2nd-South Williamsport
1-Ethan Knoebel
2-Kevin Heeman
3-Alex Patton
4-Hunter Foust
5-Port Habalar
6-Kemuel Laudermilch
7-Ryan Bahr
8-Evan Laudenslager
9-Ethan Laudenslager
D4 AA: (Team Spots:2/Individual Spots:10)
1st-Lewisburg Area
2nd-Warrior Run
3rd-Shikellamy
Shikellamy took down Warrior Run by 20 points at the Shikellamy Booster Cross Country Classic, but Warrior Run was missing #3 man Addison Magyar. If he runs today, Warrior Run should make it through.
1-Jacob Hess
2-Alejandro Quintana
3-Logan Strouse
4-Calvin Bailey
5-Peter Lantz
6-Damien Moser
7-Joshua Broadt
8-Doug Hallman
9-Eli Zakarian
10-Tanner Walker
11-Evan Hart
12-Alex Reed
13-Jacob Busch
14-Caden Dufrene
15-James Zola
16-Kellan Guinn-Bailey
D4 AAA: (Team Spots:
D4 A: (Team Spots:1/Individual Spots:5)
1st-Wyalusing Valley Area
2nd-South Williamsport
1-Ethan Knoebel
2-Kevin Heeman
3-Alex Patton
4-Hunter Foust
5-Port Habalar
6-Kemuel Laudermilch
7-Ryan Bahr
8-Evan Laudenslager
9-Ethan Laudenslager
D4 AA: (Team Spots:2/Individual Spots:10)
1st-Lewisburg Area
2nd-Warrior Run
3rd-Shikellamy
Shikellamy took down Warrior Run by 20 points at the Shikellamy Booster Cross Country Classic, but Warrior Run was missing #3 man Addison Magyar. If he runs today, Warrior Run should make it through.
1-Jacob Hess
2-Alejandro Quintana
3-Logan Strouse
4-Calvin Bailey
5-Peter Lantz
6-Damien Moser
7-Joshua Broadt
8-Doug Hallman
9-Eli Zakarian
10-Tanner Walker
11-Evan Hart
12-Alex Reed
13-Jacob Busch
14-Caden Dufrene
15-James Zola
16-Kellan Guinn-Bailey
D4 AAA: (Team Spots:
Wednesday, October 24, 2018
PIAA District 12 Predictions
D12 A: (Team Spots:1/Individual Spots:5)
1st-Masterman
2nd-Science Leadership Academy at Beeber
In my leagues recap post, I mistakenly stated that Engineering & Science would give Masterman a tough fight, but with Engineering & Science in AA, Masterman should cruise for yet another year.
1-Stephen Njiru
2-Noah Bradley
3-Camilo Ruiz
4-Hayden Keller
5-Owen Moss
6-Adam Gizis
7-Adam McAvoy
8-Kesi Hatton
9-Calvin Hu
10-Kaleb Harris
11-Tobias Beidler-Shenk
12-Awet Hussen
D12 AA: (Team Spots:2/Individual Spots:10)
1st-Engineering & Science
2nd-Cardinal O'Hara
3rd- Lansdale Catholic
LC took down O'Hara comfortably at PCL's but O'Hara's #1 Angelo Brunetti was absent from the field. If he's healthy and racing, O'Hara should be able to rally for the 2nd state spot.
1-Aidan Doherty
2-Tyree Gatewood
3-Angelo Brunetti
4-Brian McGarrity
5-Josh Hayes
6-Kevin McCullagh-Beatty
7-Meless Badume
8-John Murphy
9-Aaron Drumwright
10-Joseph Menta
11-Kendrick Key
12-Andrew Drumwright
13-Thomas Haas
14-Stephen O'Donnell
15-Andrew Moreland
16-Thomas Gelaye
17-Billy DiRita
18-Ben Lilly
19-Chris Lacey
20-Jack Crotty
D12 AAA: (Team Spots1/Individual Spots:5)
1st-LaSalle
2nd-Father Judge
1-Vincent Twomey
2-Ethan Maher
3-Paul Ghantous
4-Bradden Koors
5-Matthew Zilligen
6-Jack Seiberlich
7-Dan Gervino
8-Ricky Raup
9-Shane Curran
10-Sean Hamilton
11-Anthony Villari
12-Adam Knuttel
1st-Masterman
2nd-Science Leadership Academy at Beeber
In my leagues recap post, I mistakenly stated that Engineering & Science would give Masterman a tough fight, but with Engineering & Science in AA, Masterman should cruise for yet another year.
1-Stephen Njiru
2-Noah Bradley
3-Camilo Ruiz
4-Hayden Keller
5-Owen Moss
6-Adam Gizis
7-Adam McAvoy
8-Kesi Hatton
9-Calvin Hu
10-Kaleb Harris
11-Tobias Beidler-Shenk
12-Awet Hussen
D12 AA: (Team Spots:2/Individual Spots:10)
1st-Engineering & Science
2nd-Cardinal O'Hara
3rd- Lansdale Catholic
LC took down O'Hara comfortably at PCL's but O'Hara's #1 Angelo Brunetti was absent from the field. If he's healthy and racing, O'Hara should be able to rally for the 2nd state spot.
1-Aidan Doherty
2-Tyree Gatewood
3-Angelo Brunetti
4-Brian McGarrity
5-Josh Hayes
6-Kevin McCullagh-Beatty
7-Meless Badume
8-John Murphy
9-Aaron Drumwright
10-Joseph Menta
11-Kendrick Key
12-Andrew Drumwright
13-Thomas Haas
14-Stephen O'Donnell
15-Andrew Moreland
16-Thomas Gelaye
17-Billy DiRita
18-Ben Lilly
19-Chris Lacey
20-Jack Crotty
D12 AAA: (Team Spots1/Individual Spots:5)
1st-LaSalle
2nd-Father Judge
1-Vincent Twomey
2-Ethan Maher
3-Paul Ghantous
4-Bradden Koors
5-Matthew Zilligen
6-Jack Seiberlich
7-Dan Gervino
8-Ricky Raup
9-Shane Curran
10-Sean Hamilton
11-Anthony Villari
12-Adam Knuttel
District 2 Predictions
D2 A: (Team Spots:1/Individual Spots: 5) *bold indicates qualifying
1st-Montrose
2nd-Holy Cross
3rd-Elk Lake
1-Andrew Healey
2-Peyton Jones
3-Liam Mead
4-Kevin Jumper
5-Max Brewer
6-Noah Johnson
7-Colin Spellman
8-Nick Coy
9-Thomas Lee
D2 AA:(Team Spots:2/Individual Spots:10) *bold indicates qualifying
1st-Holy Redeemer
2nd-Abington Heights
3rd-Lakeland
1-Mitchell Rome
2-Bryce Zapusek
3-Ethan Maddox
4-Lukas Volpetti
5-Chris Hine
6-Nicholas Gershey
7-Stephen Postupak
8-Stephen Haggerty
9-Ryan Siebecker
10-Joey Rowley
11-Peter Sayre
12-George Strish
13-Dominic Capaci
14-Dustin Edsall
15-Josh Vituszynski
16-Chandler Longstreth
17-Chris Noldy
18-Zach Reeves
D3 AAA:(Team Spots:1/Individual Spots:5) *bold indicates qualifying
1st-Wallenpaupack
2nd-Hazelton
1-Tyler Wirth
2-Josh Christianson
3-Dieter Burkes
4-Zack Keiner
5-Tavian McKenna
6-Jared Krick
7-J. Henry Lyon
8-Nick Lancaster
9-Seth Brown
1st-Montrose
2nd-Holy Cross
3rd-Elk Lake
1-Andrew Healey
2-Peyton Jones
3-Liam Mead
4-Kevin Jumper
5-Max Brewer
6-Noah Johnson
7-Colin Spellman
8-Nick Coy
9-Thomas Lee
D2 AA:(Team Spots:2/Individual Spots:10) *bold indicates qualifying
1st-Holy Redeemer
2nd-Abington Heights
3rd-Lakeland
1-Mitchell Rome
2-Bryce Zapusek
3-Ethan Maddox
4-Lukas Volpetti
5-Chris Hine
6-Nicholas Gershey
7-Stephen Postupak
8-Stephen Haggerty
9-Ryan Siebecker
10-Joey Rowley
11-Peter Sayre
12-George Strish
13-Dominic Capaci
14-Dustin Edsall
15-Josh Vituszynski
16-Chandler Longstreth
17-Chris Noldy
18-Zach Reeves
D3 AAA:(Team Spots:1/Individual Spots:5) *bold indicates qualifying
1st-Wallenpaupack
2nd-Hazelton
1-Tyler Wirth
2-Josh Christianson
3-Dieter Burkes
4-Zack Keiner
5-Tavian McKenna
6-Jared Krick
7-J. Henry Lyon
8-Nick Lancaster
9-Seth Brown
Tuesday, October 23, 2018
District 5 and 11 Predictions
Here's our first set of district predictions! Be sure to check out Etrain's latest post below, and be sure to check out some of the great discussion going on in the league recap posts!
D5 A: (Team Spots: 1/ Individual Spots: 5) *bold indicates qualifying
D5 A: (Team Spots: 1/ Individual Spots: 5) *bold indicates qualifying
1st- Northern Bradford
2nd-Windber Area
Individuals
1. Ian Zimmerman
2. Ian Sherlock
3. Tyler Napora
4. Connor Laird
5. Matthew Shank
6. Gabriel Kretchman
7. Reese Kennell
8. Austin Bloom
D11 A: (Team Spots:1/Individual Spots:5) *bold indicates qualifying
1-Weatherly Area
2-Shenandoah Valley
1-Wayne Reilly (Tri-Valley)
2-Frankie Willis
3-Brandon Stasulli
4-Scott Zoscin
5-Anthony Maguschak
6-Wayne Reilly (Minersville)
7-Educ Zamudio
8-Cole Striesel
D11 AA: (Team Spots:2/Individual Spots:10) *bold indicates qualifying
1-Blue Mountain
2-Bangor Area
3-Jim Thorpe
1-Kevin Haas
2-John Koons
3-Travis Anderson
4-Marino Bubba
5-Matthew Chaikowsky
6-Anthony Coppolella
7-Morgan O'Brien
8-Colton Albitz
9-Jacob Martinez
10-Shane Artis
11-Sean McCabe
12-Jack Flynn
13-Cody Smith
14-Mike Coleman
15-Samuel Hydro
D11 AAA: (Team Spots:2/Individual Spots:10)
1-Parkland
2-Easton
3-Stroudsburg
1-Riley Williamson
2-Joseph Ozgar
3-Alex Kane
4-Nick Bower
5-Shu-Yu Chen
6-Cosmo Cardone
7-Cole Frank
8-Darlyn Fermin
9-Zachary Landvik-Larsen
10-Nathan Reimer
11-Alex Fillman
12-Matthew Santacoloma
13-Marco Cardone
14-Andre Green
15-Mason Brown
16-Vince Gallagher
17-Jacob Brown
18-Ethan Warren
19-Keshav Shankar
Train is Back... but with Questions!
As the postseason approaches, its only natural that our main man Etrain chimes in... but this time, he's asking for your help! Enjoy his piece below, and I'll be starting district predictions later this afternoon/tonight!
Yes, I’m back again, but (surprisingly) I’m not here to spew a bunch of knowledge at you. I’m actually here to ask for your help (and to do some shameless self-promotion (unsurprisingly)). You see, I haven’t been following along this year as closely as I did in year’s past and, just in case I feel the urge to write up some predictions at some point, I’d like to have the knowledge that only the readers can provide. So here are my questions. There are, naturally, 7 questions.
1. How possible is it that no Suburban One schools will make states this year?
I grew up in the SOL (unfortunate abbreviation in retrospect) so it’s kinda crazy to imagine no Suburban One teams on the line at states. It would be the first time that happened in at least 13 years. But the Ches-mont is great again, the Central League has a couple teams that are quite good and the Pioneer will certainly be a factor after sending 2 teams last year. It kinda feels like CR South, CB East and North may end up just barely missing the top 5.
What do you think PA? Who are the five teams that will make states out of District One?
2. Someone convince me that North Allegheny didn’t just clinch the state title this past weekend.
Maybe it’s just me, but the Tigers looked awesome at Tri-States. Their pack is coming together, they have that classic NA depth (crazy tight pack at 2-7) and they have two guys with the potential to win the state championship in Kinne and McGoey. So somebody out there convince me that DT West, LaSalle or somebody else is going to make North Allegheny sweat out at Hershey in November.
3. Will there be District One dominance this year?
Here’s my hot take – District One is good. Last year at AAA states, D1 took 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 7th. Since the move to three classifications, the District always has a team in the state championship hunt (I think they’ve had a podium team every year and the state champ almost every year) and all the D1 teams get in the top 10. Is this year going to be different? The WPIAL has three legit top 5 contenders, LaSalle is in the mix, Wallenpaupack, Parkland and Easton seem like they might be heard from, State College has a nice squad and District 3 is very confusing to me and should probably be its own question.
And don’t even get me started on the individual race. Could this be a down year for D1 medalists or will what usually happens happen (i.e. D1 explodes over the final few weeks and we remember that they are a massive district with insane competition that brings out the best in everyone)?
4. Do kids these days still like Harry Potter?
Honest question. Because I’m curious if I’m the only one that’s shaking with excitement over the new Fantastic Beats movie. When I was your guys age, I was in love with that book series and it was basically my life. Also I was in love with running and it was basically my life. Also I did not have a girlfriend. So …
5. Who is winning the AA Team Title?
I’ve been looking it over and it just feels like it’s going to be a wild race. Grove City and Greensburg Salem both seem like strong teams, but, in my opinion, they still need to prove they have the clutch gene in Hershey. GS has the top 3 to be super dangerous and make this question seem silly so they’d probably be my pick right now, but something in my gut tells me there will be some madness.
Can Wyomissing take a shot at defending their title? They seem like they are one PR away from the upset. York Suburban is always dangerous although this may be the year they finally were hit hard enough by graduation to slip out of the top 2. General McLane is putting together a monster top 3 in their own right. Are we sleeping too much on them? And if Indiana gets to full strength look out.
By the way, the WPIAL and D10 races will probably be absurd in AA. Especially considering the WPIAL race isn’t at Coopers and people are going to blow up on that course (I’ve never run it, but it sounds impossible). I’m waiting for Uniontown to do their usual clutch running at districts and further complicate that race.
6. If Gritty showed up at states, how many PRs would be run?
Probably 105% of the runners in the race would get a PR. This wasn’t a question so much as a chance for everyone to picture Gritty at the XC state meet and smile. Your welcome.
7. Did Winchester Thurston just make me regret announcing that Jenkintown would win states almost 2 months before states?
I suppose that exact question is not something that you can answer, but all the same, check out what the WT boys did at the Freedom Invitational. They tied arguably the best team in AA (I’m hoping that you guys will settle that argument for me) and showed a nice mix of both front running and pack potential. The entire top 5 was non-seniors too.
Of course Jenkintown rolled through their league meet with under 20 points so maybe it doesn’t matter (they’ve got 3 sophomores in the scoring spots I believe). Also, Montrose? Not really sure what the full question is there but it’s kind of like where are they, are they going to be really, I feel like they might be really good, should we talk more about them or nah.
Another fun point as I’m already rambling past my allotted word count, if Jack Miller and Jenkintown both win it will be a double gold performance. How often does that happen? Off the top of my head, not very often. Tony Russell did it twice (2012, 2013), Ryan Gil did it (2010). Those are the only guys that come to mind in the past 13+ years and they’re both AAA guys. When is the last time it happened in non-AAA?
Not to speak for the Hub or the Hub community, but I think everyone would really enjoy if we loaded up the comment section discussing the answers to these questions. I know that I will be diligently checking up on the responses.
Last thing (circling back to that shameless self-promotion), you may remember that I wanted to work on my book during my retirement tour and I have done that. The first two parts of my fiction series are available on Amazon now and if you guys enjoy reading words that I type but are sad that I don’t do that as much anymore, this may be the purchase for you.
They come highly rated by my mom and my friends so you know that it has to be good.
I’m actually planning to head up to states this year (I live in PA again) and may even be attending with my wife this year (!). If people decide to buy the book, bring it with you to states and I’ll sign it, answer questions, pretend like I might come back to blogging in the future, and most importantly get the chance to thank you for all the support you’ve given over the decade or so that I’ve been doing this stuff.
Anyway, enjoy the blog, answer my questions and support the Hub. All the best.
- Train
Monday, October 22, 2018
League Week Recaps (Part 2)
Don't worry, we're back! As promised, here are the rest of the league recaps!
Schuylkill League Championships-
Blue Mountain claimed both the individual and team titles in their respective league meet. Kevin Haas continues his great season, picking up his first win of the fall. He was a top 5 finisher in the Lions Invitational, the Unionville 2 Mile Bash, and the NEPA invitational. Consistency has been key for Haas, and he has clearly stepped it up a notch as we approach the postseason. He's now the likely favorite to take the district title next week after his big performance. Blue Mountain's squad picked up a big win, taking down a district rival contender in Jim Thorpe, who finished a distant 3rd. Blue Mountain and Bangor are going to clash for the D11 AA crown next week, and it should be a fun one to watch.
LHAC Championships-
The heavy favorites Central Cambria out of D6 AA picked up an easy win in their league meet, scoring just 35 points for the win. They are an incredibly deep squad, as they put 10 in the top 30 of this race! While this team doesn't necessarily have a front runner, they've got a great pack and could definitely utilize their depth in the AA race at Hershey. Individually, junior Nick Fetzer picked up a huge individual win, wining by over 20 seconds. He was 3rd last year with a 16:51, so this was a solid jump for Fetzer, who will look to contend for a top spot in D6 AA next week. I don't expect him to hang with Baublitz, but he could absolutely be top 3.
Freedom XC Invitational-
In a shocking Pittsburgh showdown, we got a matchup between probably the 2nd best teams in both A and AA. In an unexpected twist, Winchester Thurston held their own with Greensburg Salem, just falling short on a 6th man tiebreaker. Going up against an AA powerhouse and almost coming away with a win is huge for WT. They've clearly made the necessary adjustments since Foundation, and are poised for a big rematch against Jenkintown. This one is going to be closer than people think. Buckle up. I liked General McLane's performance in this one. Their ace Nate Price didn't even have his best day, and they only finished 13 points off of Greensburg Salem. And to be very clear, GS did not run poorly. These are not fluke performances for either WT or GM. General McLane is now back in the mix of the craziness in AA for a podium spot with teams like Lewisburg threatening as well. Adam Hessler pulled what I would consider an upset win over Scott Routledge, the GS trio, and a struggling Nate Price. This was a very solid field, and now the D7 A individual title will be a rematch between Routledge and Hessler next week. As I mentioned above, Greensburg Salem didn't run poorly. However, if they want a shot at beating Grove City for the title, they will have to have their top runners be stronger. If I'm looking at this race from a purely objective standpoint, Brown and Binda should both be looking to be top 3 in this race. While it didn't mean all that much in this smaller race, it will absolutely have a bigger impact as we enter the postseason.
Bicentennial Athletic League Championships-
While their A rivals were fighting for a win in their respective meet, Jenkintown had quite the opposite route in their league meet. Cruising to a 16 point performance, the Drakes had no issues sailing through a weak league. This is indeed the best scoring 5 in A, no matter how well WT runs. However, this Jenkintown squad is not deep. While I think Jenkintown is still favored, there will be pressure on each member of this scoring 5 to not blow up and cost them a title. I think if they go out conservatively to prevent a blow up, that could be the safest way for this team to win a title, but who knows.
TSTCA Championships-
Obviously, one of the biggies of last week. In the AA field, we saw a clash between two of the newest WPIAL stars, with Daniel Ford taking down Jack Aulbach for the win. New Castle ace Anthony Litrenta rounded out the top 3, with Lucas Pajak finishing 4th. The top 3 in this race will all match up with the Greensburg Salem boys in what should be a great individual battle in D7 AA next week. Team wise, we're in for an even better treat than we thought out of this aforementioned district. While New Castle remains undefeated on the season, we have a new team to watch for. I had New Castle and Indiana Area both comfortably advancing, but Uniontown came up just 9 points of a huge upset. This makes things much more stressful for the Indiana Area boys, as well as the New Castle boys themselves. Uniontown is an extremely balanced team who, despite not having as much power up front as New Castle, are very balanced and deep. I think they match up with Indiana Area very well and it will be a dogfight for the 3rd and last team spot out of D7 AA.
Then of course, there was the AAA race. There were many shocks and surprises, but none of which I think are too earth-shattering in the grand scheme of things. With the top programs being as elite as they are, its hard to tell who actually put all of their efforts into this race. Anderson handed Kinne his first lost of the season, but from Kinne's interview, he couldn't seem to care any less. He seemed happy that his team won, and that all of his focus was on next week. The big story for me in this one was that NA handily won this meet without McGoey. If the back end of NA's scoring 5 is starting to look this good, they may have just locked up the title. The other big surprise was Mount Lebanon taking down the Seneca Valley boys for runner up. This one is a little harder to gauge. Mt. Lebo has a ton of momentum right now, and frankly, the SV boys have seemed vulnerable almost all season. Its truly hard to tell what every teams' intentions were heading into this meet, so its tough to have definite takeaways. The one big thing I will say though is the meteoric rise of Peter Cosentino. This team went from "Patrick Anderson and the Lebo boys" to a monstrous top 2. Obviously they aren't quite a Kinne/McGoey, but I have to credit the Lebo boys this fall. This program is known for running out of steam towards the end of the season, but they're coming together really well.
Pioneer Athletic Conference Championships (PACs)-
In of the many D1 leagues, we saw OJR continue to prove that they are a favored contender to make it out of D1. They scored just 44 points and were the only team to average under 17 on the Heebner Park course. Blatz ran a strong race to finish runner up to the likely D1 champ, while David Brunton and freshman Thomas Damiani also found themselves in the top 10. I will say though, Methacton held their own. They scored 64 points to finish 2nd against an OJR squad that has top 3 potential in D1. The back end of D1 AAA qualifying continues to get crazier and crazier, and I'm running out of options as to how to sort it all out. Something a little more definite is Christian McComb. I officially think he's the favorite. The kid has just been lights out all year, and his run at Manhattan was highly overlooked because it wasn't in the Eastern States race. I think he'll have to hold off Walker, Demis, and Sewall, but I think this is his race to win, maybe in low 15:20's depending on conditions.
Philadelphia Public League Championships-
Out at Belmont Plateau, we got a preview of some D12 A action. While Masterman has been the favorite for years, their quest for a title won't be so easy this year. Although they won the meet, they held off a solid performance from Engineering & Science, who finished just 6 points off. While these aren't exactly powerhouse teams in the PIAA, I find this development exciting seeing that Masterman has won the district title for at least the past 5 years.
Henderson Invitational-
As a D1 tune-up, some Chesmont teams took to the track looking for a fast 3200. Under the lights, reigning Chesmont champ Cole Walker took the win in 9:40. Despite Walker being a possible D1 champ and top 10 finisher at states, this wasn't the story of the meet. The big development was the sudden resurfacing of Jonah Hoey who, in his first race since last spring, ran 9:41 for 2nd. The question becomes, what does this mean for the XC realm? Was this a warmup race for Jonah before he finally appears at districts, or was this just a fitness checkup as he gears up for indoor? Shanahan is known for their flexibility and their unorthodox approach with how they choose to race their athletes, so your guess is as good as mine with what Jonah chooses to do. All I'll say is, don't forget Jonah was 10th at districts and 6 places off of a state medal last fall. While its absolutely absurd to consider, there is the freak possibility that Jonah shows up next week and wins a district title.
Team wise, it was big news for Unionville. With Conway back with the top guys, the Uville boys put 4 under 10 in this race. This is huge as they turn their attention to districts this Friday. I've said this before, but if this team's top 4 is healthy, they're talented enough to finish 2nd in D1.
SOL Championships-
American:
In the American division, Jason Cornelison continues to prepare for a big districts race. I think expectations for Cornelison were a little higher heading into this season, but it also isn't clear as to whether or not he was shaking off the remnants of an injury. Regardless, Cornelison is looking stronger and stronger week by week and could contend for a top 5 spot on Friday. As if D1 needed another team to worry about, Wissahickon threw their name in the mix with a solid performance. They put their entire scoring 5 under 17 and rode a 21 spread to an easy victory. I think there's simply too many good programs to give Wissahickon a legitimate shot at making it through, but they're a good enough team that they should at least be mentioned.
National:
In probably the performance of the week, CR South sent a message to the rest of D1. I had them on the outside looking in due to some consistency issues throughout the season, but if they run like they did this past week, they're advancing regardless of other program's performances. I specifically said, if Ochs gets back to the front, this team is very dangerous, and he did just that. The boys in gold went 1-4, put 3 under 16:30, and 5 all under 17. They're also deep past 5, and have tons of experience on this Lehigh course. CR South now becomes a very desirable pick for Friday amongst all the madness. If Ochs replicates this performance, they should be set.
Continental:
The most competitive of the 3 divisions, North Penn and CB East went at it again for the league title, with CB West lurking in 3rd. While Demis secured the individual title, CB East was still able to triumph by just 3 points. I think both of these programs are going to be two of the best teams in AAA that are sent home before states, simply because of how deep D1 AAA is this year. With that being said, both teams have the potential to send 2 individuals or so to states. Demis is obviously one of the top guys in D1 right now, and McManus has come on very strong for CB East as of late. Depending on which Endres shows up, he could easily make it through as well. The CB West guys have developed out of nowhere as well. Andrew Gillespie had struggled in the early season having lost so many key training partners, but he has made huge jumps the past two weeks and could make it through as an individual on Friday.
Northwest PA Cross Country Invitational-
In a shocker, Fairview upset Harbor Creek for the team title. Despite the front running prowess of Starvaggi and Weber, this Harbor Creek squad just simply could not tie it all together this season. Credit to Fairview though. They put 5 in the top 16 and rode their depth to victory. Unfortunately, they're pretty buried in D10, but if they could beat HC again and crack the top 4, it would be a great way to wrap up the season.
Schuylkill League Championships-
Blue Mountain claimed both the individual and team titles in their respective league meet. Kevin Haas continues his great season, picking up his first win of the fall. He was a top 5 finisher in the Lions Invitational, the Unionville 2 Mile Bash, and the NEPA invitational. Consistency has been key for Haas, and he has clearly stepped it up a notch as we approach the postseason. He's now the likely favorite to take the district title next week after his big performance. Blue Mountain's squad picked up a big win, taking down a district rival contender in Jim Thorpe, who finished a distant 3rd. Blue Mountain and Bangor are going to clash for the D11 AA crown next week, and it should be a fun one to watch.
LHAC Championships-
The heavy favorites Central Cambria out of D6 AA picked up an easy win in their league meet, scoring just 35 points for the win. They are an incredibly deep squad, as they put 10 in the top 30 of this race! While this team doesn't necessarily have a front runner, they've got a great pack and could definitely utilize their depth in the AA race at Hershey. Individually, junior Nick Fetzer picked up a huge individual win, wining by over 20 seconds. He was 3rd last year with a 16:51, so this was a solid jump for Fetzer, who will look to contend for a top spot in D6 AA next week. I don't expect him to hang with Baublitz, but he could absolutely be top 3.
Freedom XC Invitational-
In a shocking Pittsburgh showdown, we got a matchup between probably the 2nd best teams in both A and AA. In an unexpected twist, Winchester Thurston held their own with Greensburg Salem, just falling short on a 6th man tiebreaker. Going up against an AA powerhouse and almost coming away with a win is huge for WT. They've clearly made the necessary adjustments since Foundation, and are poised for a big rematch against Jenkintown. This one is going to be closer than people think. Buckle up. I liked General McLane's performance in this one. Their ace Nate Price didn't even have his best day, and they only finished 13 points off of Greensburg Salem. And to be very clear, GS did not run poorly. These are not fluke performances for either WT or GM. General McLane is now back in the mix of the craziness in AA for a podium spot with teams like Lewisburg threatening as well. Adam Hessler pulled what I would consider an upset win over Scott Routledge, the GS trio, and a struggling Nate Price. This was a very solid field, and now the D7 A individual title will be a rematch between Routledge and Hessler next week. As I mentioned above, Greensburg Salem didn't run poorly. However, if they want a shot at beating Grove City for the title, they will have to have their top runners be stronger. If I'm looking at this race from a purely objective standpoint, Brown and Binda should both be looking to be top 3 in this race. While it didn't mean all that much in this smaller race, it will absolutely have a bigger impact as we enter the postseason.
Bicentennial Athletic League Championships-
While their A rivals were fighting for a win in their respective meet, Jenkintown had quite the opposite route in their league meet. Cruising to a 16 point performance, the Drakes had no issues sailing through a weak league. This is indeed the best scoring 5 in A, no matter how well WT runs. However, this Jenkintown squad is not deep. While I think Jenkintown is still favored, there will be pressure on each member of this scoring 5 to not blow up and cost them a title. I think if they go out conservatively to prevent a blow up, that could be the safest way for this team to win a title, but who knows.
TSTCA Championships-
Obviously, one of the biggies of last week. In the AA field, we saw a clash between two of the newest WPIAL stars, with Daniel Ford taking down Jack Aulbach for the win. New Castle ace Anthony Litrenta rounded out the top 3, with Lucas Pajak finishing 4th. The top 3 in this race will all match up with the Greensburg Salem boys in what should be a great individual battle in D7 AA next week. Team wise, we're in for an even better treat than we thought out of this aforementioned district. While New Castle remains undefeated on the season, we have a new team to watch for. I had New Castle and Indiana Area both comfortably advancing, but Uniontown came up just 9 points of a huge upset. This makes things much more stressful for the Indiana Area boys, as well as the New Castle boys themselves. Uniontown is an extremely balanced team who, despite not having as much power up front as New Castle, are very balanced and deep. I think they match up with Indiana Area very well and it will be a dogfight for the 3rd and last team spot out of D7 AA.
Then of course, there was the AAA race. There were many shocks and surprises, but none of which I think are too earth-shattering in the grand scheme of things. With the top programs being as elite as they are, its hard to tell who actually put all of their efforts into this race. Anderson handed Kinne his first lost of the season, but from Kinne's interview, he couldn't seem to care any less. He seemed happy that his team won, and that all of his focus was on next week. The big story for me in this one was that NA handily won this meet without McGoey. If the back end of NA's scoring 5 is starting to look this good, they may have just locked up the title. The other big surprise was Mount Lebanon taking down the Seneca Valley boys for runner up. This one is a little harder to gauge. Mt. Lebo has a ton of momentum right now, and frankly, the SV boys have seemed vulnerable almost all season. Its truly hard to tell what every teams' intentions were heading into this meet, so its tough to have definite takeaways. The one big thing I will say though is the meteoric rise of Peter Cosentino. This team went from "Patrick Anderson and the Lebo boys" to a monstrous top 2. Obviously they aren't quite a Kinne/McGoey, but I have to credit the Lebo boys this fall. This program is known for running out of steam towards the end of the season, but they're coming together really well.
Pioneer Athletic Conference Championships (PACs)-
In of the many D1 leagues, we saw OJR continue to prove that they are a favored contender to make it out of D1. They scored just 44 points and were the only team to average under 17 on the Heebner Park course. Blatz ran a strong race to finish runner up to the likely D1 champ, while David Brunton and freshman Thomas Damiani also found themselves in the top 10. I will say though, Methacton held their own. They scored 64 points to finish 2nd against an OJR squad that has top 3 potential in D1. The back end of D1 AAA qualifying continues to get crazier and crazier, and I'm running out of options as to how to sort it all out. Something a little more definite is Christian McComb. I officially think he's the favorite. The kid has just been lights out all year, and his run at Manhattan was highly overlooked because it wasn't in the Eastern States race. I think he'll have to hold off Walker, Demis, and Sewall, but I think this is his race to win, maybe in low 15:20's depending on conditions.
Philadelphia Public League Championships-
Out at Belmont Plateau, we got a preview of some D12 A action. While Masterman has been the favorite for years, their quest for a title won't be so easy this year. Although they won the meet, they held off a solid performance from Engineering & Science, who finished just 6 points off. While these aren't exactly powerhouse teams in the PIAA, I find this development exciting seeing that Masterman has won the district title for at least the past 5 years.
Henderson Invitational-
As a D1 tune-up, some Chesmont teams took to the track looking for a fast 3200. Under the lights, reigning Chesmont champ Cole Walker took the win in 9:40. Despite Walker being a possible D1 champ and top 10 finisher at states, this wasn't the story of the meet. The big development was the sudden resurfacing of Jonah Hoey who, in his first race since last spring, ran 9:41 for 2nd. The question becomes, what does this mean for the XC realm? Was this a warmup race for Jonah before he finally appears at districts, or was this just a fitness checkup as he gears up for indoor? Shanahan is known for their flexibility and their unorthodox approach with how they choose to race their athletes, so your guess is as good as mine with what Jonah chooses to do. All I'll say is, don't forget Jonah was 10th at districts and 6 places off of a state medal last fall. While its absolutely absurd to consider, there is the freak possibility that Jonah shows up next week and wins a district title.
Team wise, it was big news for Unionville. With Conway back with the top guys, the Uville boys put 4 under 10 in this race. This is huge as they turn their attention to districts this Friday. I've said this before, but if this team's top 4 is healthy, they're talented enough to finish 2nd in D1.
SOL Championships-
American:
In the American division, Jason Cornelison continues to prepare for a big districts race. I think expectations for Cornelison were a little higher heading into this season, but it also isn't clear as to whether or not he was shaking off the remnants of an injury. Regardless, Cornelison is looking stronger and stronger week by week and could contend for a top 5 spot on Friday. As if D1 needed another team to worry about, Wissahickon threw their name in the mix with a solid performance. They put their entire scoring 5 under 17 and rode a 21 spread to an easy victory. I think there's simply too many good programs to give Wissahickon a legitimate shot at making it through, but they're a good enough team that they should at least be mentioned.
National:
In probably the performance of the week, CR South sent a message to the rest of D1. I had them on the outside looking in due to some consistency issues throughout the season, but if they run like they did this past week, they're advancing regardless of other program's performances. I specifically said, if Ochs gets back to the front, this team is very dangerous, and he did just that. The boys in gold went 1-4, put 3 under 16:30, and 5 all under 17. They're also deep past 5, and have tons of experience on this Lehigh course. CR South now becomes a very desirable pick for Friday amongst all the madness. If Ochs replicates this performance, they should be set.
Continental:
The most competitive of the 3 divisions, North Penn and CB East went at it again for the league title, with CB West lurking in 3rd. While Demis secured the individual title, CB East was still able to triumph by just 3 points. I think both of these programs are going to be two of the best teams in AAA that are sent home before states, simply because of how deep D1 AAA is this year. With that being said, both teams have the potential to send 2 individuals or so to states. Demis is obviously one of the top guys in D1 right now, and McManus has come on very strong for CB East as of late. Depending on which Endres shows up, he could easily make it through as well. The CB West guys have developed out of nowhere as well. Andrew Gillespie had struggled in the early season having lost so many key training partners, but he has made huge jumps the past two weeks and could make it through as an individual on Friday.
Northwest PA Cross Country Invitational-
In a shocker, Fairview upset Harbor Creek for the team title. Despite the front running prowess of Starvaggi and Weber, this Harbor Creek squad just simply could not tie it all together this season. Credit to Fairview though. They put 5 in the top 16 and rode their depth to victory. Unfortunately, they're pretty buried in D10, but if they could beat HC again and crack the top 4, it would be a great way to wrap up the season.
Saturday, October 20, 2018
Plenty of Recaps To Go Around! PART 1
*EDIT*
Just a quick site update, not going to be able to post at all today, so check back tomorrow for Part 2 of the league recaps, and another surprise post!
As promised, we're here to take a look at the hundreds (well, feels like it) of league meets that went down this week. Because there's so many, and I don't want the quality of content to decrease just to get all the meets in one post, I'll probably break this into two parts. But anyways, I really love league meets. Before the pressure of qualifying/advancing ensues the next week, you and your teammates toe the line against rival schools in the area for nothing other than pride. For some, who realistically don't expect to make it through to states in most circumstances, this is their last chance to feel like they're fighting for something alongside their best buds one last time. League titles mean little to nothing for some programs, but for others, it means everything, and I've always respected that. Not that in anyway I condemn coaches who wisely rest their athletes for meets with higher stakes, but I always felt like lining up on your home course starting line week after week with some of your best friends held a certain level of sentiment that could be comparable to the excitement and adrenaline of big qualifying meet. But I digress. So how about those recaps!
Washington County Coaches Meet-
Out at Mingo Creek Park, Peter's Township ace Zack Marmol picked up the individual win, being the lone runner to dip under 17. Marmol is ranked #14 in the WPIAL from Jiminy Cricket's rankings, and is expected to advance through to states out of the crowded District 7. Finishing runner up was Ringgold's Lucas Pajak. I've mentioned him periodically throughout the past few weeks, as he's continued to find himself towards the front of race results. As I've said before, Ringgold has a history of athletes making absurd jumps at the state meet (look up Noah Curtin if you're too young), so I think Pajak is absolutely a medal threat with how consistently he's been running. Canon-McMillan picked up the team win over Peter's Township, 41-59.
YAIAA League Cross Country Championships-
In a great individual race, relatively unknown Andrew Hirneisen from Gettysburg took down a host of York Suburban runners and others. He quietly had an impressive run at Ben Bloser weeks ago, and that seemingly set him up to come in and steal the league crown. Hirneisen is definitely poised to fight for a top 10 finish in D3 AAA right now, and could be a big sleeper moving forward. Possibly an even bigger surprise in this race was the runner up, Northeastern's James Herman. With a 4:49/10:16 track resume, and having never broken 17, this was a huge breakthrough race for Herman. Herman will also navigate his way through this crowded D3 AAA field, and I'm really pulling for him to make it through. Unsurprisingly, York Suburban handily took down the field by over 40 points. They're gearing up for what should be a good battle with Wyomissing next week, and I think they're in the driver's seat right now for that D3 AA crown.
Lancaster-Lebanon League Championship-
In one of the craziest individual races we've seen all year, with the top 4 separated by 4 seconds, Nathan Grucelski pulled the upset (?) win for the league title. There were tons of individual studs in this race, with some of the expected names not even finishing towards the front, like Evan Kreider. Seeing as that Grucelski is a 4:20 miler with very solid closing speed, I shouldn't be surprised that he won a race that came down to a kick. With that being said, a win is a win, and he took down some big time distance names. Basically all of the top 7 finishers have gotten some kind of individual glory at some point this season, and all but Horst will have a rematch at the D3 champs next week, with the YAIAA and half of the Mid-Penn thrown in. Damn, this is going to be a blast! Team-wise, Warwick secured the victory, as I would've expected. I have them as the 2nd best team in D3 right now, and they should semi-comfortably make it through with the Shields-Martin duo up front. The big result to watch here was Manheim Township finishing just 3 points off of Cedar Crest. I said Cedar Crest has started to look more and more vulnerable as the season has progressed, and its showing. I feel comfortable about the top 3 teams in D3 right now, but man, there are some really good teams that are going to get left home. Hershey, Cedar Crest, Palmyra, Manheim Township, and Chambersburg have quite literally all gone back and forth all year long, and I could make a case for every single team here to grab that last spot.
Friends School League Championship-
Historically, no matter the circumstances, GFS just always seems to build an army to some extent. At their private school league meet, they showcased their depth yet again. They put 4 in the top 6, and 6 in the top 15 en route to scoring just 29 points for the win. While this isn't an NXR type of team, or even a top PIAA caliber team, I think credit is deserved where credit is due. As the last of the Dahl era faded with Colin Riley graduating last year, I'm sure many thought this team would slowly fade out of the picture. Their ability to rebuild so quickly with an entire new set of names is a testament to the coaching and culture over at GFS, and I think there is a lot to say about that. Individually, Jeffrey Love unsurprisingly cruised to a 30 second victory, winning with a fairly quick 16:21. This is the fittest Love has been in his HS career, and he may finally get his coveted Private League state title. However, I've said it before, the young guns in DiDonato and Brill are going to make things very interesting.
Eastern Pennsylvania Conference Championship-
In a mad dash to the finish, Easton's Joseph Ozgar wound up stealing the district title from Parkland's Riley Williamson by just a second. This sets up what should be a crazy rematch between the two at the D11 championships next weekend. While Ozgar snagged the individual win, it was Williamson's Parkland squad that found themselves as the league champs. Parkland caught many of our eyes when they finished as the top PA squad at PTXC way back during opening weekend, but have been relatively quiet since then. I think some may forget how good this team is, and when they likely roll to a district championship next week, they will have their eyes set on a top 8 or so finish in AAA. The intriguing part of this race though, was the battle for second. I was just about ready to hand the state spots to Parkland and Easton and call it a day, but not so fast. Even with Ozgar winning the title, Easton only held Stroudsburg off by 5 points. Stroudsburg is actually a stronger team through 4, but loses tons of ground from their #5. That will be the key to upsetting Easton for the 2nd qualifying spot. With Easton's #6 being very reliable though, I still feel safe about picking Easton to advance through to Hershey next week.
Colonial League Championships-
It was all Southern Lehigh in this one. With freshman phenom Alex Kane taking the win, SL won by basically 80 points. I'm really excited to see how Kane holds his own with the EPC guys at D11's next week. The hype is about the Ozgar/Williamson rematch, but don't rule out the rookie from mixing it up at the front.
Berks County (BCIAA) Championships-
In yet another meet containing likely D3 qualifiers, Twin Valley put on one of their best performances of the year, winning the title over Wyomissing 48-82. I feel more and more comfortable about Twin Valley qualifying through the D3 madness. This team has been crazy inconsistent this fall, but the past few weeks, they've started stringing together some solid performances. Servis continues to get back into his top form as a low stick, finishing 3rd overall. Schlegel has had his fair share of consistency issues this fall, but put together a nice performance to finish 6th. I don't think Twin Valley quite has a shot at the title, but this is a very experienced squad who has been around the front for awhile with the Knorr twin's presence. Wyomissing looked strong finishing 2nd, as they look to try and challenge York Suburban for a district title in AA next week. I think they're going to have to run a little stronger to win the title, but its certainly not impossible. Ben Kuhn is looking like an animal. He won this race by over 25 seconds, in a respectable 16:21. He went out a little hard with Jack Miller at Paul Short and paid the price for it, so I don't think people realized how fast this kid was until this race. The 4:21/9:32 track stud learned a lot under Cullen last year, and is a big threat to watch for in AA.
Wyoming Valley Conference XC Championships-
The big takeaways from this meet: Mitchell Rome is still a stud, despite losing the entirety of his training group from last year. Holy Redeemer is going to blow away the D2 AA field, and is a big sleeper moving amongst the crowded team race in AA. I expected Zapusek to be a bit closer to Rome in this race, but I still think he could be in the hunt for the medals if he runs as well as I think he can at Hershey.
Just a quick site update, not going to be able to post at all today, so check back tomorrow for Part 2 of the league recaps, and another surprise post!
As promised, we're here to take a look at the hundreds (well, feels like it) of league meets that went down this week. Because there's so many, and I don't want the quality of content to decrease just to get all the meets in one post, I'll probably break this into two parts. But anyways, I really love league meets. Before the pressure of qualifying/advancing ensues the next week, you and your teammates toe the line against rival schools in the area for nothing other than pride. For some, who realistically don't expect to make it through to states in most circumstances, this is their last chance to feel like they're fighting for something alongside their best buds one last time. League titles mean little to nothing for some programs, but for others, it means everything, and I've always respected that. Not that in anyway I condemn coaches who wisely rest their athletes for meets with higher stakes, but I always felt like lining up on your home course starting line week after week with some of your best friends held a certain level of sentiment that could be comparable to the excitement and adrenaline of big qualifying meet. But I digress. So how about those recaps!
Washington County Coaches Meet-
Out at Mingo Creek Park, Peter's Township ace Zack Marmol picked up the individual win, being the lone runner to dip under 17. Marmol is ranked #14 in the WPIAL from Jiminy Cricket's rankings, and is expected to advance through to states out of the crowded District 7. Finishing runner up was Ringgold's Lucas Pajak. I've mentioned him periodically throughout the past few weeks, as he's continued to find himself towards the front of race results. As I've said before, Ringgold has a history of athletes making absurd jumps at the state meet (look up Noah Curtin if you're too young), so I think Pajak is absolutely a medal threat with how consistently he's been running. Canon-McMillan picked up the team win over Peter's Township, 41-59.
YAIAA League Cross Country Championships-
In a great individual race, relatively unknown Andrew Hirneisen from Gettysburg took down a host of York Suburban runners and others. He quietly had an impressive run at Ben Bloser weeks ago, and that seemingly set him up to come in and steal the league crown. Hirneisen is definitely poised to fight for a top 10 finish in D3 AAA right now, and could be a big sleeper moving forward. Possibly an even bigger surprise in this race was the runner up, Northeastern's James Herman. With a 4:49/10:16 track resume, and having never broken 17, this was a huge breakthrough race for Herman. Herman will also navigate his way through this crowded D3 AAA field, and I'm really pulling for him to make it through. Unsurprisingly, York Suburban handily took down the field by over 40 points. They're gearing up for what should be a good battle with Wyomissing next week, and I think they're in the driver's seat right now for that D3 AA crown.
Lancaster-Lebanon League Championship-
In one of the craziest individual races we've seen all year, with the top 4 separated by 4 seconds, Nathan Grucelski pulled the upset (?) win for the league title. There were tons of individual studs in this race, with some of the expected names not even finishing towards the front, like Evan Kreider. Seeing as that Grucelski is a 4:20 miler with very solid closing speed, I shouldn't be surprised that he won a race that came down to a kick. With that being said, a win is a win, and he took down some big time distance names. Basically all of the top 7 finishers have gotten some kind of individual glory at some point this season, and all but Horst will have a rematch at the D3 champs next week, with the YAIAA and half of the Mid-Penn thrown in. Damn, this is going to be a blast! Team-wise, Warwick secured the victory, as I would've expected. I have them as the 2nd best team in D3 right now, and they should semi-comfortably make it through with the Shields-Martin duo up front. The big result to watch here was Manheim Township finishing just 3 points off of Cedar Crest. I said Cedar Crest has started to look more and more vulnerable as the season has progressed, and its showing. I feel comfortable about the top 3 teams in D3 right now, but man, there are some really good teams that are going to get left home. Hershey, Cedar Crest, Palmyra, Manheim Township, and Chambersburg have quite literally all gone back and forth all year long, and I could make a case for every single team here to grab that last spot.
Friends School League Championship-
Historically, no matter the circumstances, GFS just always seems to build an army to some extent. At their private school league meet, they showcased their depth yet again. They put 4 in the top 6, and 6 in the top 15 en route to scoring just 29 points for the win. While this isn't an NXR type of team, or even a top PIAA caliber team, I think credit is deserved where credit is due. As the last of the Dahl era faded with Colin Riley graduating last year, I'm sure many thought this team would slowly fade out of the picture. Their ability to rebuild so quickly with an entire new set of names is a testament to the coaching and culture over at GFS, and I think there is a lot to say about that. Individually, Jeffrey Love unsurprisingly cruised to a 30 second victory, winning with a fairly quick 16:21. This is the fittest Love has been in his HS career, and he may finally get his coveted Private League state title. However, I've said it before, the young guns in DiDonato and Brill are going to make things very interesting.
Eastern Pennsylvania Conference Championship-
In a mad dash to the finish, Easton's Joseph Ozgar wound up stealing the district title from Parkland's Riley Williamson by just a second. This sets up what should be a crazy rematch between the two at the D11 championships next weekend. While Ozgar snagged the individual win, it was Williamson's Parkland squad that found themselves as the league champs. Parkland caught many of our eyes when they finished as the top PA squad at PTXC way back during opening weekend, but have been relatively quiet since then. I think some may forget how good this team is, and when they likely roll to a district championship next week, they will have their eyes set on a top 8 or so finish in AAA. The intriguing part of this race though, was the battle for second. I was just about ready to hand the state spots to Parkland and Easton and call it a day, but not so fast. Even with Ozgar winning the title, Easton only held Stroudsburg off by 5 points. Stroudsburg is actually a stronger team through 4, but loses tons of ground from their #5. That will be the key to upsetting Easton for the 2nd qualifying spot. With Easton's #6 being very reliable though, I still feel safe about picking Easton to advance through to Hershey next week.
Colonial League Championships-
It was all Southern Lehigh in this one. With freshman phenom Alex Kane taking the win, SL won by basically 80 points. I'm really excited to see how Kane holds his own with the EPC guys at D11's next week. The hype is about the Ozgar/Williamson rematch, but don't rule out the rookie from mixing it up at the front.
Berks County (BCIAA) Championships-
In yet another meet containing likely D3 qualifiers, Twin Valley put on one of their best performances of the year, winning the title over Wyomissing 48-82. I feel more and more comfortable about Twin Valley qualifying through the D3 madness. This team has been crazy inconsistent this fall, but the past few weeks, they've started stringing together some solid performances. Servis continues to get back into his top form as a low stick, finishing 3rd overall. Schlegel has had his fair share of consistency issues this fall, but put together a nice performance to finish 6th. I don't think Twin Valley quite has a shot at the title, but this is a very experienced squad who has been around the front for awhile with the Knorr twin's presence. Wyomissing looked strong finishing 2nd, as they look to try and challenge York Suburban for a district title in AA next week. I think they're going to have to run a little stronger to win the title, but its certainly not impossible. Ben Kuhn is looking like an animal. He won this race by over 25 seconds, in a respectable 16:21. He went out a little hard with Jack Miller at Paul Short and paid the price for it, so I don't think people realized how fast this kid was until this race. The 4:21/9:32 track stud learned a lot under Cullen last year, and is a big threat to watch for in AA.
Wyoming Valley Conference XC Championships-
The big takeaways from this meet: Mitchell Rome is still a stud, despite losing the entirety of his training group from last year. Holy Redeemer is going to blow away the D2 AA field, and is a big sleeper moving amongst the crowded team race in AA. I expected Zapusek to be a bit closer to Rome in this race, but I still think he could be in the hunt for the medals if he runs as well as I think he can at Hershey.