Friday, March 22, 2019

Aint No Love for the Small Schools: Looking at AA

Hey everybody! I know things are a little slow right now, but don't fret, spring kicks off this weekend! Be sure to check out my rising stars post that went up last week, as it highlights some of the youngsters who had killer indoor and XC seasons this year, and should be on your radar for the spring.

I thought about just doing some AAA previews, but I felt it was getting to be redundant mentioning the same names (Eissler, Hoey, Shue, Kinne, etc.) so I thought it would be cool to put a spotlight on some of the AA guys as we head into the season.

Before I get into that though, speaking of Kinne, how about a PA #2 all time 14:38 5k down in Texas? He isn't quite what Affolder was a couple years ago, but I think he's going to run faster than Rusty did outdoor, and he's truly just an all-around special distance talent.

Lets talk small schools!

With a great class of guys like Jihad, Forsythe, Leeser, and Brenden Miler graduated, there will be new state champs in every distance event this spring. However, despite all of last year's champs having graduated, most of the depth/medalists in the 1600 and 3200 from last year do return.

The 800 is by far the most wide open event on this list. The top 4 finishers, and 8 of the top 12 finalists from last year's race were all seniors. The top returner from the state race is Seneca's Jake Schneider, who ran 1:58.26 to finish 5th last year. The current senior had a solid indoor season, running 2:02. He only ran 2:07 indoor last year before his outdoor season last year, so will we see a 1:55-1:56 mark and a fight for the state title from Schneider?

Of course, a lot of this comes down to what Jonah Powell decides to do. Doubling or not, I just think Powell is a class above everyone else in AA this year. I think he has a 1:52-1:53 in him fresh, and because the AA 800 field is a little weaker than usual this year, I do think Powell could cruise a 1:55 and win double gold.

Aside from Schneider, if there's anyone I think who could actually challenge Powell, its Quaker Valley's Dan Ford. He struggled at the state meet, but his 1:58.55 at the PTFCA Carnival is truly a really, really good race. It converts to 1:57.95, and puts him not all that far off of Powell. This year has been full of breakthroughs for Ford, and he's only a junior. I think he is also someone who has 1:55 potential in the right race, and I think if anyone has a chance to stun a doubling Powell, its this kid right here.

Other returning medalists from last year's AA 800 final include Sebastian Brudnicki (7th, 1:59.67) and Josh Yourish (8th, 1:59.72). Yourish had a solid indoor season where he ran 2:01, and while we really didn't see Brudnicki this winter, he was only a sophomore last year, so he has loads of upside.

Ethan Knoebel ran 1:58 last year, but struggled at the state meet after an impressive 1600 performance. Because of an expectation of continued focus on the 16, Knoebel's stock in this event is up in the air.

The other names to watch would be the Wyomissing duo of Josiah Taylor and Ryan Vargo who both ran 2:00 this indoor season, as well as Colby Belczyk of Riverview, who ran an impressive 2:02 this winter as just a sophomore.

As I'll discuss below, if Baublitz reemerges onto the scene, he's pretty much better than any other runner I just mentioned.

The 1600 is another event I expect to be dominated by the likes of Jonah Powell, but there is certainly more firepower and depth here compared to the 800. Of the 8 medalists from last year, 5 return. The biggest wildcard here would have to be Garrett Baublitz of Juniata. The junior is one of the only guys in PA (not just AA) that has the talent to hang with Powell with PR's of 1:55/4:18. Unfortunately though, he was AWOL all of indoor with what we can only presume to be an injury. He was kind of forgotten by people, but he could've easily matched Powell's double at indoor states in my opinion. He was 2nd behind Forsythe last year, and man, a Baublitz v Powell showdown in the 1600 would be amazing if Baublitz came out this season at full fitness.

While he had a tough indoor campaign, Ethan Knoebel was 3rd at states last year, blasting a PR of 4:20 to cement himself as a legit stud in AA. He'll have to show signs of life again after an indoor season that was mostly in the 4:40's, but the kid is talented enough that if he's clicking, he can also hang around the front of this 1600 field.

Another notable absence from indoor this year was Colton Sands of Penns Valley. Despite his teammate Colwell making some appearances, we saw none of Sands. The super sophomore struggled at the end of XC after looking to be a shoe-in for a top 3 finish in A, which leads me to believe that he too, was dealing with some injury issues. He's another kid who, if he reemerges at full fitness, could be a contender. He ran 4:28 at the state final last spring as just a freshman (as well as a 4:26 in the prelim), and also holds a 9:39 in his first year. I can't rule him out as being a 4:20 type runner who can contend for a top 3 spot.

Someone who did compete in indoor that would be a threat is Ben Kuhn of Wyomissing. The junior opted to run the 3000 indoor, and may very well lean towards the 3200 outdoor, but don't rule out the fact that he ran a 4:25.86c mile this indoor season. Not to mention that he ran 4:21 as a sophomore last year, but shockingly decided not to run it at states. His 9:32 is impressive, but I have to think there's some untapped potential in the 1600 for Kuhn.

While I already mentioned it above, this has been a year of breakthroughs for Dan Ford. He already ran 4:28 for a medal last spring (0.1 behind Sands), but Ford has really upped his game this year. While I think he is better off competing in the 800 field, Ford could still contend for a top 5 finish if he so chooses to.

Guys like Jack Miller and Andrew Healey are guys who ran solid miles indoor this season, and could very well contend at the front of this field, but will likely opt to run the 3200 come states.

One last name to keep an eye on would be the last medalist from last year, Palmerton's Jake Martinez, who ran 4:29 in the finals but holds a PR of 4:25. He's never raced indoor so we don't know much about where he's at, but the Lehigh commit showed some steady improvement with a solid XC season, and is a sleeper that nobody has mentioned at all heading into this outdoor season.

Our last open event, the 3200, might be the deepest heading into the 2019 spring. There were only 3 seniors in the top 12 of last year's state finals, and the AA guys put on a really strong showing in the 3000 this past indoor season. We saw Miller, Kuhn, and Healey all run sub 8:55, and in total AA had 8 guys go sub 9:10. This total doesn't even include two returning medalists in Josh Lewis and Colton Sands, who did not race indoor this season. These five names are pretty much the top tier in my opinion. These guys are all either experienced state medalists, or had really solid indoor seasons where they too medaled.

Logan Horst is the only other returning medalist I have yet to name. He was 7th with a 9:41, and had a solid XC season where he finished 2nd to Kuhn at the D3 AA XC championships. While he also did not compete indoors, he is a name similar to Martinez in the 1600 in the sense that he really isn't getting talked about as much as he should be.

The other sub 9:10 kids from this indoor season are the same guys who were the non-seniors in that top 12 from last year's outdoor state meet. Scott Routledge and Adam Hessler are two Pittsburgh guys who are hard to differentiate as they went 10th-11th at the state meet last spring, and both ran 9:04 this indoor season. They've both proven to be consistent, and are likely contenders for a medal in this field. It will be interesting to see if both/or just one of these guys can close the gap on that top tier of AA guys.

I'd say the last group of names to keep an eye on would be Zachary Gould of Trinity Christian (10th last spring, 9:56 3200 indoor), Brendan Colwell (9:09 indoor, great XC season), and Krystof Lapotsky (9:06c indoor out of nowhere, big sleeper in my opinion).

Lastly, the hardest to preview this early on in the season, would be the 4x800. I feel comfortable saying that Wyomissing isn't going to lose this race. They ran 8:08 indoor, (the next closest was 8:34 North East), and are the defending champs. They're just too deep, and I think this is a slightly down year for AA in the middle distances, so other than one team (who we'll get to), I just don't see anyone touching the Wyo squad.

Picking teams to watch for in a relay is tricky, especially in AA, where your data to work with is slim. I like programs with depth who have choices, so squads like Lewisburg and Jenkintown could throw together some solid relays. Elk County Catholic ran 8:02 last year and return some solid pieces.

I will say, if anyone is going to challenge Wyomissing, I really like Warrior Run. They've got depth, and a sub 2 open leg. It might be easy for AAA guys to smirk at that, but for these smaller schools, that's gold. They've got returning times of 1:59-2:03-2:04-2:07-2:11(freshman). I do think this program could do some damage and really challenge Wyomissing if they back up these times from last year. I'm sure Wyomissing's dream scenario would be to win gold in this race without Kuhn having to run, but I'm not so sure they can make that happen with Warrior Run in the picture.

One other program I wouldn't forget about is Riverside. They also ran 8:02 in the finals last year, and I like the look of Colby Belczyk developing as an ace in the 800 for the squad.

Hope you all enjoyed some new content! Pay attention to opening weekend!

Stay Happy, Stay Healthy
-The RunningHub

Saturday, March 16, 2019

Youthful Stars: Underclassmen in the Spotlight

Welcome back everybody! After our short break from content, expect to hop right back into a consistent groove of articles being published as we head into the spring season.

Because I didn't really do anything leading up to the national meet, shoutout to those who qualified and competed. The notable highlights for our PA boys were

-Kinne runs an impressive 9:11 in the Championship 2 Mile
-Council Rock South runs 7:54 with a 1:54 anchor from Ochs
-Seneca Valley dips under 18 in the 4xmile with splits of 4:24/4:23/4:40/4:28
-Cameron Binda continues to impress with a 4:17 PR and 3rd overall in EE
-Ian Miller runs 9:28 respectively in the EE 2 Mile
-David Endres picked up an all-conditions PR of 1:54.05 in the EE 800

A bunch of these performances have me really excited for our outdoor postseason. I'm hoping that we can get back to the 2015 era where we had a crop of guys statewide that were running in that 9:00-9:10 range. Ochs and Endres proved from this meet that as always, the District 1 AAA 800 is going to be madness. Lastly, can Binda actually challenge Powell for the title in AA outdoor?

These are all things to be considering as we head back to the 400 meter oval.

However, this is not the focus of our article today!

One of our commenters must be psychic, as they (rather sternly, but justifiably I suppose) pointed out that I promised you all a piece on some of our young stars from this past indoor season. Well, I had been putting it together, but figured, what better way to kick off our upcoming season?

Here is a more in-depth look at some of our up and coming studs you should absolutely have on your radar moving forward.

Eric Albright-Garnet Valley, Sophomore
The first two or three names on this list will be guys that really don't need much of an introduction. Albright was a guy who certainly wasn't quiet his freshman year, running 2:00.03 outdoor, but he really didn't catch any eyes until he opened his indoor season this winter. In a pretty standard weekend Lehigh meet, both Albright and Ricky Raup cemented themselves as dark horses in the 800 state picture, dipping below 2 on a flat track.

After this race, I pointed out Albright as a guy to watch, but I wasn't sure how long it would take for him to step up to another level.

Well, fast forward 3 weeks, and boy, did we see another level.

Albright's 1:56.86 at Ocean Breeze is one of the fastest for his grade in the past 10 years, and I think because we've been spoiled with guys like Shue and the Hoey's running so fast at such a young age, many did not appreciate how legit this race was.

Although he struggled at the state meet, the field was a group of veterans with a lot of experience, which is something Albright lacked. I have no doubts that Albright is a talented enough individual that we'll see mixing it up at the D1 800 final, and beyond.

Brayden Harris-Mifflin County, Sophomore
Another youngster that you've probably already heard me talk enough about, is the long-distance stud from central PA.

The kid has proven himself pretty dang well across the board. He's gone sub 4:30 indoor, he's shown a little speed with a 2:01, and then of course, his dominant performances in the 3000, that includes 4 performances this season at 9 flat or under (including his 3200). Even when you criticize his struggles in the 3k at indoor states, those negatives are quickly squashed by the fact that he anchored his DMR to a state silver.

The scariest part is that despite the large and still growing resume he's developed on the track, many people seem to forget that this kid was FOURTH at AAA XC states. I distinctly remember standing with Etrain along the final stretch, and after the Anderson/Kinne/McGoey trio went charging past, even I had to turn to Jarrett and say, is that Brayden Harris?? I think that because XC is so often discussed as a battle between the D7 and D1 kids, this performance was overlooked by many.

Harris will be an interesting name to follow in the spring, because although I expect him to drop some jaw-dropping times, I just don't see anybody touching Kinne, so we can only hope that Harris amongst a host of others can try and close that gap.

Robert DiDonato-Germantown Academy, Sophomore
There are a lot of reasons to be excited about DiDonato. While he may be a sophomore, its hard not to look at this kid as a rookie, seeing as that he only ran outdoor his freshman year. In his first XC season, we saw him run a blistering 16:07 at Lehigh, take down an accomplished veteran in Jeffrey Love for the private school state title, and then finish in the top 60 at Foot Locker regionals.

In his first look at an indoor track, he ran 4:29 converted mile, and got his first exposure to a real state field at PSU. Although it'll be back to the PAISAA for outdoor, if DiDonato hops in some strong invitational fields this spring, I have no doubt in my mind he can be a 4:22 type guy. Knowing Germantown Academy's success with distance stars in the past, I have no doubt that DiDonato is on the verge of becoming one of PA's biggest stars.

Gavin Brophy-West Chester Henderson, Freshman
Speaking of established programs developing young stars, West Chester Henderson might hold that title. The Chesmont league program has been a historic powerhouse, and over the past few generations we've seen the likes of the Barchet/Russell duo (debatably one of the best duos in PA history), as well as recently graduated, all-time PA great Spencer Smucker.

So naturally, when they have the fastest freshman in the 3k from this past indoor season, its hard not to be excited.

Gavin Brophy was justifiably quiet for most of his freshman XC campaign, before dropping a 16:01 at Districts out of literally, and I mean LITERALLY, nowhere. It was a well over a minute PR, and he followed up with a top 90 finish at PIAA states a week later.

While this was thought to be just a flash in the pan, Brophy proved to us that he is an up and coming threat with his 9:22 3000 at Yale in January, which would hold to be the fastest time for a freshman statewide by 8 seconds.

As a school that hosts some really elite high school meets for the region in the outdoor season, look for Brophy to hop in some really good fields and hit some really quick times.

*I'm operating under the assumption that there is no relationship to Jake Brophy from CB East, but if someone could confirm or deny that, that would be a really interesting tidbit of info to have*

Zachary Brill-Malvern Prep, Freshman
Another southeast PA youngster that has caught some attention also hails from the PAISAA, like DiDonato. The 9th grader from Malvern has already amassed a lot of big meet experience in his first few seasons. He held his own to finish 3rd behind DiDonato and Love at XC PAISAA states, and went on to finish 5th in the 9th grade race at Foot Locker.

Although he didn't qualify for the state meet, his sub 4:40's got him into the freshman race at NBIN, where he dropped another few seconds to hit 4:35. That's the fastest mile from a freshman since Baublitz, Hoey, and Shultz all were sub 4:34 as freshmen two years ago. That's pretty dang good company to be in.

I think having DiDonato will really help Brill rise to the occasion outdoor, and generally elevate the competition of the PAISAA, which I think will benefit everyone.

Matthew Puleio-Meadville Area, Freshman
Our last featured youngster would be found out west, who, I won't lie, caught my attention not only from what he's done this year, but some of his past.

A quick look at Puleio's resume, and you'll find that, as just an 8th grader, the kid ran 10:20 in the 3200! We often spend time discussing how a middle schooler is a star if they break 5, and this kid went out and averaged 5:10.

Well, what got Puleio here is not his distance ability, but his speed that he flashed at TSTCA's. His 2:02 is fastest amongst all freshman, and it was really only his second recorded 800 to date.

The combination of his childhood talent and his early signs of speed made it too hard for me to not put him on the list. While he only ran 4:48 indoor, I have a feeling that his 2:02 is a foreshadowing of a big breakthrough for the freshman out west.


Other impressive freshmen names to keep an eye on:

Weber Long, Greencastle-Atrim
Sean Adams, State College
Alex Kane, Southern Lehigh
Thomas Damiani, Owen J. Roberts

-The RunningHub





Tuesday, March 5, 2019

A Week of Reflection: State Recap Part II

Hello folks, as promised, here is the second half of our state recaps! While it might seem like this took a little long to get out given that states was now a full week ago, I actually decided to do this on purpose. While I'm sure its a little annoying, I was hoping the discussion would continue on the first post. I felt that after I recapped the XC state meet, there was such a steady drop off in viewership and content for the page, that I thought that spacing these things out a bit more would allow for continued and prolonged traffic for the site. I won't keep you all waiting any longer though, so lets dive into the action!

3000:
Despite all of the craziness that went on at the state meet this past weekend, the 3000 was one of the few events that went pretty much as expected. Similarly to XC, the long distances were dominated by the western PA kids. However, this time around, Zach Kinne finally got his long-awaited first PA gold. Despite the high caliber field, Kinne threw down the most impressive distance performance of the day, blowing away the field in a runaway fashion. His time of 8:33 is a top 5 time nationally, and was only two seconds off of Rusty's winning time last year. I found this part to be really impressive, because while Rusty went on a tear week after week last year, this was only Kinne's 3rd race of the year. I think the Duke commit still has a lot of upside heading into the spring, and I just don't see him losing the 3200 outdoors.

Behind Kinne though, we saw some great battles for the rest of the medals. The glorified 1-2 finish for NA that we talked about in XC came to fruition in this race, with McGoey throwing down a massive kick to barely eek out fellow WPIAL junior Zach Leachman for the silver. Jack Miller was many people's top pick to go out and challenge Kinne, and although that was not the case, the Jenkintown senior put up a great result of 8:51 and 4th place. For someone who was criticized for not living up to his XC performances on the track, Miller has now cemented himself as truly, one of the best distance runners in the state.

Rounding out the top 5 in this race was the Wyomissing junior Ben Kuhn. There were a lot of impressive aspects of Kuhn's race in my opinion. The range of being a 3000 state medalist and a key piece on a sub 8:10 relay is rare. On top of that, Kuhn opened up his season very early, racing on opening weekend back in early December. Typically, guys that race that hard and often over the course of the winter season can justifiably fizzle out before the postseason, so for Kuhn to be this consistent all year is an impressive feat in itself.

Ian Miller might be the least talked about runner in PA to have 3+ state medals. This was his second consecutive year medaling in the 3000, and after finishing 13th in XC, it seems as if Miller is inching closer and closer to a breakthrough race that puts him in the conversation as one of the best long distance guys in all of PA.

Two juniors in Andrew Healey and Christian Fitch rounded out the medalists. This was the first indoor state championship for both of these guys, and they walked away with hardware with one year still left on their resumes. These guys were 9:29 and 9:32 as just sophomores, and while Fitch will have his hands full in AAA, the Healey v Miller matchup in AA outdoor is shaping up to be wild.

Tough day for Brayden Harris to be the first out of the medals, but it should go without saying that this kid had an incredible season. He was the only sophomore or freshman in the field, and he ended up getting his team into the medals for the DMR anyways. Make no mistake, this youngster is one of the bright spots for PA's future.

DMR:
Although I got 7 of the 8 medalists in this race, I still really wasn't all that close. The DMR was a race where, in my preview, people seemed adamant about certain programs winning. I picked Haverford in an upset, some saw Seneca Valley defending their title with ease, while others like Jiminy Cricket justifiably believed that Downingtown West would assert their consistent postseason power and take the title. Popular commenter Yifter with the correct call though!

After a full season of talking about how I thought they didn't have enough firepower, LaSalle went out and dominated the field, blowing away the competition in a US #5 10:23.32. Watching the race, it became increasingly clear that LaSalle was the class of the field, as the relay of Twomey, Sieberlich, Costonis, and Ghantous eased away from the field with every respective leg. Their splits of roughly 3:09~50~1:59high~4:24 were a balanced attack that no other teams had a response for. I thought putting Twomey on the leadoff and trusting Sieberlich on the anchor was a really bold move, and clearly they were rewarded. Once Twomey outkicked Macknair on the 1200 leg for the lead, the rest was history.

Mifflin County does deserve a lot of credit though. A lot of people (including myself) thought their lack of experience mixed with some tough doubles would lead to their demise. Yet, a hard-fought leadoff leg for Macknair put the squad towards the front of the race, and they never really lost their spot back in 2nd.

The excitement of the came for the 3rd-8th spots. Downingtown West, Seneca Valley, and Haverford all started reeling Harris in on the anchor, but just ran out of room, Ketler in particular looked like he was really charging hard to catch guys in the last 100 meters or so. I wish the race coverage at least panned to the chase pack at some points, but the focus was really all on LaSalle's dominant performance. I was glad to see Twin Valley did end up snagging a medal after going all in on the event.

Because of the lack of coverage of the rest of the field, I couldn't really tell who the pieces of the other relays were. Did Anderson even run for Mt. Lebanon? If so, I'm a little disappointed with the boys from Lebo, because they would've had to just ran average to give Anderson the chance to try and run down most of the field.

Kudos to Lower Merion, as they were the one squad that snuck into the medals that I didn't pick to break the top 8.

4x8:
The first distance event of the day was a victory for me as someone who was trying to call the events. As I made pretty clear, I was going all in on Pennridge to win this thing, and I was very confident in this pick despite knowing how close the race was going to be. But nevertheless, Matt Eissler clutched up and helped the boys in white and green grab the title. As expected, Andersen Dimon bumped up in distance to leadoff the relay and give the squad an early lead. State College, CB West, and Pennridge continued to break off from the pack, and it seemed like a three team race heading into the last leg.

While Eissler may have anchored his relay to a state gold, he was far from the fastest split.

As already pointed out by one of our commenters, an absolutely herculean effort by Collin Ochs singlehandedly carried his Council Rock South squad from way 20+ meters back from the lead pack, into a 2nd place, and he nearly caught Eissler too. His reported 1:52 split is absolutely legit, and its a shame, because I think this effort took a little too much out of his legs, as I'm sure he had higher aspirations for the open 800. But make no mistake, that anchor leg from Ochs shows that he is jut as talented as any other 800 runner in the state right now. District 1 has Eissler, Zeh, Ochs, Hoey, Zelinsky, and all the Central Bucks West guys. Like last year, it is going to be absolute madness to just try and make the state meet out of District 1.

How can you not root for State College at this point? Despite having no established names in the middle distance landscape heading into the season, they somehow, for yet another year, ump out a sub 8 relay that will contend for state gold. Whether its the coaching, the team culture, or something else, this program has to be commended for its extreme consistency of performing at an elite level, regardless of the pieces they're given.

The same should go for CB West. Although they were picked as contenders to win, they were in contention for the duration of the race, and just couldn't quite hang on during the wild close in the last 100 meters. Because of the pack at the front, their 4th place makes it seem as if they were back in the middle of the race, but if Eissler gets the baton in front and doesn't sit on Fehrman (?) on the anchor leg, this race could unfold an entirely different way.

Congrats to the Indiana Area boys, who, were emphatic in their belief that they would prove some people wrong this weekend. Well, sometimes you gotta speak things into existence. They dropped an 8:03.96, and snagged a medal in 7th. Congrats boys.

Many fans knew it was likely that we would see a medalist from the slow heat. Although myself and a few others thought it would be Penncrest, it was the boys from CB south who dropped a lightning quick 8:03 to grab a solid 6th place medal. 

Lastly, I was glad Radnor did end up squeezing into the top 8. They were very solid in both relays this year, but there was no guarantee that they could hang towards the front of a state field. They fell short in the DMR later in the day, so it was good to see that Zeh could hold off the LaSalle squad who finished 9th, to get this program a well-deserved medal.

Well folks, I know you're probably not thrilled with the wait, but I decided it would be for the best. As for nationals, I'll be throwing up a list of entries, and hopefully we can get some good discussion going. I don't have a plan as for what I'm going to be posting next in preparation for spring, so any and all recommendations are welcomed. Hopefully you guys can take some initiative in getting some discussion started, and I can act accordingly based off of what you guys would like to see. Thank you all for your continued support, and I hope that you guys are still finding this valuable to our coverage of the sport.

Cheers,
-The RunningHub