Although we had a few relay meets last week, this past weekend was the first set of big meets with individual events. There were a few really solid openers, and the stage is already being set for things to be much faster than indoor in my opinion.
To kick things off, we have to acknowledge the obvious performance of the weekend. In typical Hoey fashion, Jonah Hoey went down to Florida and competed at the Pepsi Relays, where he came away with two PA #1's. He ran just an "ok" 800 (for him personally) with a 1:56.59, but then uncorked a 4:17.02 to come away with a new PR. Hoey surprisingly opted to run the 1600 outdoor last year, a decision that still rewarded him with a state silver. Many thought he was going to come in this year as a junior and start ripping 1:51 type marks like his brothers, but he is showing more and more that the 1600 might end up being his best path to a state gold. Given that our indoor state champ Jonah Powell is in AA, Hoey certainly has the ability to takedown Anderson and others for a state title.
Altoona Area Igloo Invitational:
Altoona kicked things off with a win on their home track in the 4x8 with an 8:30. Elk County Catholic reminds us to not forget about them in the AA state picture as they were 2nd in 8:36.
There were two great doubles that headlined the distance events in this meet. Josh Yourish of Deer Lakes had an impressive 4:32.93 victory in the 1600, and then doubled back to hold on for the win in the 800 with a 2:05.45. I mentioned Yourish as a name to watch in the AA 800, but this was a really solid opener for him in the 16. I spent a lot of time outlining how the AA 800 is a much weaker field than the 1600, but if Yourish is already running 4:32, its hard to think he can't develop into a real medal threat in 6 weeks.
The other impressive double came from the Bedford sophomore Van May. He finished 2nd to Yourish in the 1600 with a solid 4:38, but then came back to runaway with the 3200 title in 10:08. Now, neither of these times are mind-blowing, but this is a solid double given his age, and given that he won the 3200 by 20 ish seconds, its hard to think the sophomore isn't already in 9:50's shape. Excited to see what this kid can do for the rest of the season.
Haverford Invitational:
The 800 was a showdown of frankly, a bunch of new names we haven't seen or heard of much before. Academy Park senior Ismael Americain is in his first year of track, and came away with a 4 second PR from the indoor season and a win. His 2:02 in his first spring meet of the year is a great sign as he'll try and inch closer to that district qualifier of 1:59.xx. Strath Haven sophomore Julian Carmichael also ran an impressive 2:02, while the Haverford School for Boys had an impressive duo of Lleyton Winslow and and AJ Sanford ran 2:03-2:04 for 3rd and 4th. Rounding out the top 5 was Radnor sophomore Chris Belz, who's 2:04 is yet another piece to add to Radnor's growing group of middle distance stars.
The 1600 was a show for the home team, with Aidan Tomov running away from the field in impressive fashion, as he clocked a 4:27 PA #3 for the win. I felt like we didn't get to see Tomov enough in the mile indoor, and this is just a sign that he's back in his best event, and he's ready to run fast this spring season. Brendan Campbell locked up a 1-2 finish for Haverford, running 4:38.80.
The 3200 was an awesome showdown between two great D1 teams in Haverford and West Chester East, as the two schools claimed the top 4 spots in the race. Josh Lewin kicked off his junior campaign with a thrilling win over fellow junior classmate Josh Fingerhut from Haverford, 9:52.73 to 9:53.83. The two pulled away from their respective teammates Mike Donnelly and Domenic Moser, and gave us a great race. I see Fingerhut pursuing the 3200 in the postseason, but as for Lewin, your guess is as good as mine. He's run 50 point in the open 400, 4:20 in the 1600, and 9:31 for 3200. Whatever he chooses, he'll be an immediate threat, so only time will tell.
Remember when I mentioned Radnor as a middle distance powerhouse this year?
They aren't playing around this season.
After an indoor season where they constantly hung around the top of the state, they asserted themselves as contenders for state gold at Shippensburg, as they blasted a 7:58 in March! 7:58 for this time of the year is absolutely no joke, and the dangerous part is, they probably have options to move around that fourth leg depending on who is running well at the moment. I really hope we see these guys at Penn Relays, as their locals who would have some great support and could really run something fast if they make the finals. It is not longer just the Ethan Zeh show anymore over at Radnor.
Not to be forgotten about though, West Chester East still ran an incredibly solid PA #2 8:05.87 right behind Radnor for 2nd. This is also a really deep program with guys like Moser, Daley, and Benditt all backing Lewin. These are the same programs we saw do damage indoor, but both squads are clearly ready to jack it up another level.
Jim Kelly Invitational:
CB East kicked off the outdoor season with a PA #3 8:06 to win over some fellow SOL rival schools in CB South and Pennridge. This was a really deep race as the top 7 teams were all sub 8:30. There's no names associated with splits, but the impressive part about some of these times are that a lot of big guns seem to be missing. For example, CB East didn't have a single sub 2 split on their relay, meaning they ran 8:06 likely without Endres. The same goes for Pennridge, who's 8:15 seems to have come without Matt Eissler. Having other programs such as CB South run 8:13 and Cheltenham run 8:19 show just how crowded the D1 AAA 4x8 will end up being as always.
We had a really exciting upset in the 800, where we saw Matt Eissler get caught by Holy Ghost's Jarrett Zelinsky in a 1:57.5-1:57.7 finish. Some may see this as a weak result for Eissler, but kicking off the season in 1:57 is nothing to scoff at. This was a great race for Zelinsky who should be gaining a lot of confidence as he will try and gear up for his first time of getting to outdoor states and dealing with prelims and trials 2 weekends in a row. As for Eissler, I still see him as the favorite for the district title. Holy Ghost is really getting their name back on the map though, as Burton Carbino also ripped a 1:58.69 to finish 3rd. This duo could quickly become one of the best 1-2 punches in the state in the 800, and if they could find some pieces around these guys, this is a dangerous 4x8. Familiar faces like Luke Eissler and Trey Hill rounded out the top 5.
The 1600 looked to be the thrilling race of the day, with the top 6 all finishing within 3 seconds of each other. The pack was all within a second of each other with 400 to go, and a blazing 62 last lap from Stefano Isabella got him the victory in a really impressive performance from the Hatboro Horsham junior. The Hatboro Horsham guys have been showing me glimpses of talent here and there between Isabella and Comber, and I'm waiting for one of thee guys to breakthrough. This sign of closing speed is very promising for Isabella, as that kind of kick can be very rewarding when it comes to advancing through prelims and such in the postseason. Josiah Moyer, Samir Razi, Garrett Campbell, Diego Lera-Lozano (sophomore), And Griffin Schlegel made up the rest of the top 6 and all had great races that put them in the 4:32-4:34 range.
Mount Lebanon Invitational:
Even if we didn't get to see all the Pittsburgh powerhouses here, there were still some great times thrown down. Carter Kauffman got the win in the 1600 with a 4:33 to throw himself on the AA radar, but the real story was his competitor. Coming in 2nd was Mount Lebanon's new secret weapon apparently, as 9th grader Barak Asher threw down a 4:34! This is a seriously legit mark for the youngster and has to be looked at as an emerging star in all of PA if this is correct.
The 800 gave us some more familiar faces, with Elias Zajicek picking up a really solid victory over two thirds of the Greensburg Salem trio in Mark Brown and Dylan Binda. There really isn't a standout 800 star in the D7 AAA 800, and I would love to see Zajicek drop into the mid 1:50's. As for the Greensburg Salem boys, we know how talented they are, and they're pretty much contenders in any event they pick down in AA.
Speaking of the Greensburg Salem boys, what the heck has gotten into Cameron Binda? After ripping a huge PR of 4:17 at NBIN, he almost took down Patrick Anderson in a 3200! The two studs went head to head and while the XC state champ ultimately prevailed, Anderson's 9:25 pulled Binda to, simply put, a colossal PR of 9:27. These are two of the top times in the state behind Kinne, and set the stage for the 3200 to be really deep this year. I talked about Binda challenging Powell in the AA 1600, but is Binda now considered a possible favorite for the AA 3200? What a crazy development.
Pennsylvania Track Classic:
Another year, another season opener for a lot of stud athletes at Plymouth Whitemarsh. The 800 wasn't blazing fast, but we saw some solid openers from some solid mid-tier state level guys, with Malachi Langley of Chester picking up the win in 2:03 over Alex Fillman of Southern Lehigh (2:05).
Similarly to his indoor season, Saabir Ali opened the spring hot, cruising to victory in the 1600 with a time of 4:31. I spent a lot of time hyping up Ali in the beginning of indoor and he fizzled out a little bit, so lets hope he can maintain his hot start this season and roll to some quick times. Penncrest sophomore Benjamin Klinger put together a solid race for himself, setting a new PR of 4:37 for 2nd.
The big story of this race was the 3200. Robert DiDonato was outlined in my rising stars article, and after this race, I think its fair to say that he is no longer "rising", he's already there. The sophomore solo'd a 9:27 to blow away the field, and tie Cameron Binda for the 3rd fastest time in PA. Even if its still March, anytime you're a sophomore and the only two people faster than you are Zach Kinne and Patrick Anderson, you know you're in pretty dang shape. I quite frankly didn't even expect DiDonato to open this fast, and if anything, it just makes me more upset he won't be at PIAA states. His teammate Matt Sandifer also ran a solid 9:52 to finish 2nd. Two non-seniors under 10 in the season opener for a PAISAA school is very impressive.
Mitchell Rome had a solid double of 4:38/9:56.
The Distance Project:
There were a lot of really weird events in this meet, so I'll just try and give the really big highlights. Unionville rolled to a 18:26 in the 4x1600. That's a 4:36.5 average per leg. That's unbelievable depth, and I'm not entirely sure there's many other teams in PA that could replicate that performance. The D1 XC runner ups clearly have a great group of fit athletes right now, and they're going to have some scary individual performers outside of just Cole Walker this year.
The awesome story for me in this meet was the dominance of Neshaminy out of nowhere. In the 800, Ethan Nolen took the win, breaking 2 and running 1:59 seemingly out of the blue! His teammates led a 1-2-3 sweep, running 2:05 and 2:06. Neshaminy suddenly has some really promising 4x8 stock, and I'm excited to see what this Nolen kid can do.
Tim Cook Memorial Invitational:
After a rough indoor campaign, 800 star Seth Phillips is returning to form, picking up a solid victory in 1:58. I'm sure he would love to knock down his 1:55 PR from last year, and get back to the state final and avenge his fall from last year. This is a great start, and there's obviously a great culture of success over at Mifflin County right now.
Phillip's teammate Chayce Macknair picked up where he left off in the indoor season, blasting a 4:26 to dominate a solid field of D3 guys. Casey Padgett and Trentin Overcash finished 2nd and 3rd in this race, both running 4:33, and they both had solid doubles in the 800 later on in the day. Greencastle-Atrim freshman Weber Long had a very impressive showing running 4:37 to finish 5th. Taryn Parks is no longer the fastest runner in the school!
A couple of sophomores went at it in the 3200, with Carlisle soph Evan Peachy taking the win in 10:09 over Henry J. Lyon and Graham Thomas.
Mifflin County also picked up the 4x8 win in 8:28.
That's all folks!
-The RunningHub
Monday, April 1, 2019
Friday, March 22, 2019
Aint No Love for the Small Schools: Looking at AA
Hey everybody! I know things are a little slow right now, but don't fret, spring kicks off this weekend! Be sure to check out my rising stars post that went up last week, as it highlights some of the youngsters who had killer indoor and XC seasons this year, and should be on your radar for the spring.
I thought about just doing some AAA previews, but I felt it was getting to be redundant mentioning the same names (Eissler, Hoey, Shue, Kinne, etc.) so I thought it would be cool to put a spotlight on some of the AA guys as we head into the season.
Before I get into that though, speaking of Kinne, how about a PA #2 all time 14:38 5k down in Texas? He isn't quite what Affolder was a couple years ago, but I think he's going to run faster than Rusty did outdoor, and he's truly just an all-around special distance talent.
Lets talk small schools!
With a great class of guys like Jihad, Forsythe, Leeser, and Brenden Miler graduated, there will be new state champs in every distance event this spring. However, despite all of last year's champs having graduated, most of the depth/medalists in the 1600 and 3200 from last year do return.
The 800 is by far the most wide open event on this list. The top 4 finishers, and 8 of the top 12 finalists from last year's race were all seniors. The top returner from the state race is Seneca's Jake Schneider, who ran 1:58.26 to finish 5th last year. The current senior had a solid indoor season, running 2:02. He only ran 2:07 indoor last year before his outdoor season last year, so will we see a 1:55-1:56 mark and a fight for the state title from Schneider?
Of course, a lot of this comes down to what Jonah Powell decides to do. Doubling or not, I just think Powell is a class above everyone else in AA this year. I think he has a 1:52-1:53 in him fresh, and because the AA 800 field is a little weaker than usual this year, I do think Powell could cruise a 1:55 and win double gold.
Aside from Schneider, if there's anyone I think who could actually challenge Powell, its Quaker Valley's Dan Ford. He struggled at the state meet, but his 1:58.55 at the PTFCA Carnival is truly a really, really good race. It converts to 1:57.95, and puts him not all that far off of Powell. This year has been full of breakthroughs for Ford, and he's only a junior. I think he is also someone who has 1:55 potential in the right race, and I think if anyone has a chance to stun a doubling Powell, its this kid right here.
Other returning medalists from last year's AA 800 final include Sebastian Brudnicki (7th, 1:59.67) and Josh Yourish (8th, 1:59.72). Yourish had a solid indoor season where he ran 2:01, and while we really didn't see Brudnicki this winter, he was only a sophomore last year, so he has loads of upside.
Ethan Knoebel ran 1:58 last year, but struggled at the state meet after an impressive 1600 performance. Because of an expectation of continued focus on the 16, Knoebel's stock in this event is up in the air.
The other names to watch would be the Wyomissing duo of Josiah Taylor and Ryan Vargo who both ran 2:00 this indoor season, as well as Colby Belczyk of Riverview, who ran an impressive 2:02 this winter as just a sophomore.
As I'll discuss below, if Baublitz reemerges onto the scene, he's pretty much better than any other runner I just mentioned.
The 1600 is another event I expect to be dominated by the likes of Jonah Powell, but there is certainly more firepower and depth here compared to the 800. Of the 8 medalists from last year, 5 return. The biggest wildcard here would have to be Garrett Baublitz of Juniata. The junior is one of the only guys in PA (not just AA) that has the talent to hang with Powell with PR's of 1:55/4:18. Unfortunately though, he was AWOL all of indoor with what we can only presume to be an injury. He was kind of forgotten by people, but he could've easily matched Powell's double at indoor states in my opinion. He was 2nd behind Forsythe last year, and man, a Baublitz v Powell showdown in the 1600 would be amazing if Baublitz came out this season at full fitness.
While he had a tough indoor campaign, Ethan Knoebel was 3rd at states last year, blasting a PR of 4:20 to cement himself as a legit stud in AA. He'll have to show signs of life again after an indoor season that was mostly in the 4:40's, but the kid is talented enough that if he's clicking, he can also hang around the front of this 1600 field.
Another notable absence from indoor this year was Colton Sands of Penns Valley. Despite his teammate Colwell making some appearances, we saw none of Sands. The super sophomore struggled at the end of XC after looking to be a shoe-in for a top 3 finish in A, which leads me to believe that he too, was dealing with some injury issues. He's another kid who, if he reemerges at full fitness, could be a contender. He ran 4:28 at the state final last spring as just a freshman (as well as a 4:26 in the prelim), and also holds a 9:39 in his first year. I can't rule him out as being a 4:20 type runner who can contend for a top 3 spot.
Someone who did compete in indoor that would be a threat is Ben Kuhn of Wyomissing. The junior opted to run the 3000 indoor, and may very well lean towards the 3200 outdoor, but don't rule out the fact that he ran a 4:25.86c mile this indoor season. Not to mention that he ran 4:21 as a sophomore last year, but shockingly decided not to run it at states. His 9:32 is impressive, but I have to think there's some untapped potential in the 1600 for Kuhn.
While I already mentioned it above, this has been a year of breakthroughs for Dan Ford. He already ran 4:28 for a medal last spring (0.1 behind Sands), but Ford has really upped his game this year. While I think he is better off competing in the 800 field, Ford could still contend for a top 5 finish if he so chooses to.
Guys like Jack Miller and Andrew Healey are guys who ran solid miles indoor this season, and could very well contend at the front of this field, but will likely opt to run the 3200 come states.
One last name to keep an eye on would be the last medalist from last year, Palmerton's Jake Martinez, who ran 4:29 in the finals but holds a PR of 4:25. He's never raced indoor so we don't know much about where he's at, but the Lehigh commit showed some steady improvement with a solid XC season, and is a sleeper that nobody has mentioned at all heading into this outdoor season.
Our last open event, the 3200, might be the deepest heading into the 2019 spring. There were only 3 seniors in the top 12 of last year's state finals, and the AA guys put on a really strong showing in the 3000 this past indoor season. We saw Miller, Kuhn, and Healey all run sub 8:55, and in total AA had 8 guys go sub 9:10. This total doesn't even include two returning medalists in Josh Lewis and Colton Sands, who did not race indoor this season. These five names are pretty much the top tier in my opinion. These guys are all either experienced state medalists, or had really solid indoor seasons where they too medaled.
Logan Horst is the only other returning medalist I have yet to name. He was 7th with a 9:41, and had a solid XC season where he finished 2nd to Kuhn at the D3 AA XC championships. While he also did not compete indoors, he is a name similar to Martinez in the 1600 in the sense that he really isn't getting talked about as much as he should be.
The other sub 9:10 kids from this indoor season are the same guys who were the non-seniors in that top 12 from last year's outdoor state meet. Scott Routledge and Adam Hessler are two Pittsburgh guys who are hard to differentiate as they went 10th-11th at the state meet last spring, and both ran 9:04 this indoor season. They've both proven to be consistent, and are likely contenders for a medal in this field. It will be interesting to see if both/or just one of these guys can close the gap on that top tier of AA guys.
I'd say the last group of names to keep an eye on would be Zachary Gould of Trinity Christian (10th last spring, 9:56 3200 indoor), Brendan Colwell (9:09 indoor, great XC season), and Krystof Lapotsky (9:06c indoor out of nowhere, big sleeper in my opinion).
Lastly, the hardest to preview this early on in the season, would be the 4x800. I feel comfortable saying that Wyomissing isn't going to lose this race. They ran 8:08 indoor, (the next closest was 8:34 North East), and are the defending champs. They're just too deep, and I think this is a slightly down year for AA in the middle distances, so other than one team (who we'll get to), I just don't see anyone touching the Wyo squad.
Picking teams to watch for in a relay is tricky, especially in AA, where your data to work with is slim. I like programs with depth who have choices, so squads like Lewisburg and Jenkintown could throw together some solid relays. Elk County Catholic ran 8:02 last year and return some solid pieces.
I will say, if anyone is going to challenge Wyomissing, I really like Warrior Run. They've got depth, and a sub 2 open leg. It might be easy for AAA guys to smirk at that, but for these smaller schools, that's gold. They've got returning times of 1:59-2:03-2:04-2:07-2:11(freshman). I do think this program could do some damage and really challenge Wyomissing if they back up these times from last year. I'm sure Wyomissing's dream scenario would be to win gold in this race without Kuhn having to run, but I'm not so sure they can make that happen with Warrior Run in the picture.
One other program I wouldn't forget about is Riverside. They also ran 8:02 in the finals last year, and I like the look of Colby Belczyk developing as an ace in the 800 for the squad.
Hope you all enjoyed some new content! Pay attention to opening weekend!
Stay Happy, Stay Healthy
-The RunningHub
I thought about just doing some AAA previews, but I felt it was getting to be redundant mentioning the same names (Eissler, Hoey, Shue, Kinne, etc.) so I thought it would be cool to put a spotlight on some of the AA guys as we head into the season.
Before I get into that though, speaking of Kinne, how about a PA #2 all time 14:38 5k down in Texas? He isn't quite what Affolder was a couple years ago, but I think he's going to run faster than Rusty did outdoor, and he's truly just an all-around special distance talent.
Lets talk small schools!
With a great class of guys like Jihad, Forsythe, Leeser, and Brenden Miler graduated, there will be new state champs in every distance event this spring. However, despite all of last year's champs having graduated, most of the depth/medalists in the 1600 and 3200 from last year do return.
The 800 is by far the most wide open event on this list. The top 4 finishers, and 8 of the top 12 finalists from last year's race were all seniors. The top returner from the state race is Seneca's Jake Schneider, who ran 1:58.26 to finish 5th last year. The current senior had a solid indoor season, running 2:02. He only ran 2:07 indoor last year before his outdoor season last year, so will we see a 1:55-1:56 mark and a fight for the state title from Schneider?
Of course, a lot of this comes down to what Jonah Powell decides to do. Doubling or not, I just think Powell is a class above everyone else in AA this year. I think he has a 1:52-1:53 in him fresh, and because the AA 800 field is a little weaker than usual this year, I do think Powell could cruise a 1:55 and win double gold.
Aside from Schneider, if there's anyone I think who could actually challenge Powell, its Quaker Valley's Dan Ford. He struggled at the state meet, but his 1:58.55 at the PTFCA Carnival is truly a really, really good race. It converts to 1:57.95, and puts him not all that far off of Powell. This year has been full of breakthroughs for Ford, and he's only a junior. I think he is also someone who has 1:55 potential in the right race, and I think if anyone has a chance to stun a doubling Powell, its this kid right here.
Other returning medalists from last year's AA 800 final include Sebastian Brudnicki (7th, 1:59.67) and Josh Yourish (8th, 1:59.72). Yourish had a solid indoor season where he ran 2:01, and while we really didn't see Brudnicki this winter, he was only a sophomore last year, so he has loads of upside.
Ethan Knoebel ran 1:58 last year, but struggled at the state meet after an impressive 1600 performance. Because of an expectation of continued focus on the 16, Knoebel's stock in this event is up in the air.
The other names to watch would be the Wyomissing duo of Josiah Taylor and Ryan Vargo who both ran 2:00 this indoor season, as well as Colby Belczyk of Riverview, who ran an impressive 2:02 this winter as just a sophomore.
As I'll discuss below, if Baublitz reemerges onto the scene, he's pretty much better than any other runner I just mentioned.
The 1600 is another event I expect to be dominated by the likes of Jonah Powell, but there is certainly more firepower and depth here compared to the 800. Of the 8 medalists from last year, 5 return. The biggest wildcard here would have to be Garrett Baublitz of Juniata. The junior is one of the only guys in PA (not just AA) that has the talent to hang with Powell with PR's of 1:55/4:18. Unfortunately though, he was AWOL all of indoor with what we can only presume to be an injury. He was kind of forgotten by people, but he could've easily matched Powell's double at indoor states in my opinion. He was 2nd behind Forsythe last year, and man, a Baublitz v Powell showdown in the 1600 would be amazing if Baublitz came out this season at full fitness.
While he had a tough indoor campaign, Ethan Knoebel was 3rd at states last year, blasting a PR of 4:20 to cement himself as a legit stud in AA. He'll have to show signs of life again after an indoor season that was mostly in the 4:40's, but the kid is talented enough that if he's clicking, he can also hang around the front of this 1600 field.
Another notable absence from indoor this year was Colton Sands of Penns Valley. Despite his teammate Colwell making some appearances, we saw none of Sands. The super sophomore struggled at the end of XC after looking to be a shoe-in for a top 3 finish in A, which leads me to believe that he too, was dealing with some injury issues. He's another kid who, if he reemerges at full fitness, could be a contender. He ran 4:28 at the state final last spring as just a freshman (as well as a 4:26 in the prelim), and also holds a 9:39 in his first year. I can't rule him out as being a 4:20 type runner who can contend for a top 3 spot.
Someone who did compete in indoor that would be a threat is Ben Kuhn of Wyomissing. The junior opted to run the 3000 indoor, and may very well lean towards the 3200 outdoor, but don't rule out the fact that he ran a 4:25.86c mile this indoor season. Not to mention that he ran 4:21 as a sophomore last year, but shockingly decided not to run it at states. His 9:32 is impressive, but I have to think there's some untapped potential in the 1600 for Kuhn.
While I already mentioned it above, this has been a year of breakthroughs for Dan Ford. He already ran 4:28 for a medal last spring (0.1 behind Sands), but Ford has really upped his game this year. While I think he is better off competing in the 800 field, Ford could still contend for a top 5 finish if he so chooses to.
Guys like Jack Miller and Andrew Healey are guys who ran solid miles indoor this season, and could very well contend at the front of this field, but will likely opt to run the 3200 come states.
One last name to keep an eye on would be the last medalist from last year, Palmerton's Jake Martinez, who ran 4:29 in the finals but holds a PR of 4:25. He's never raced indoor so we don't know much about where he's at, but the Lehigh commit showed some steady improvement with a solid XC season, and is a sleeper that nobody has mentioned at all heading into this outdoor season.
Our last open event, the 3200, might be the deepest heading into the 2019 spring. There were only 3 seniors in the top 12 of last year's state finals, and the AA guys put on a really strong showing in the 3000 this past indoor season. We saw Miller, Kuhn, and Healey all run sub 8:55, and in total AA had 8 guys go sub 9:10. This total doesn't even include two returning medalists in Josh Lewis and Colton Sands, who did not race indoor this season. These five names are pretty much the top tier in my opinion. These guys are all either experienced state medalists, or had really solid indoor seasons where they too medaled.
Logan Horst is the only other returning medalist I have yet to name. He was 7th with a 9:41, and had a solid XC season where he finished 2nd to Kuhn at the D3 AA XC championships. While he also did not compete indoors, he is a name similar to Martinez in the 1600 in the sense that he really isn't getting talked about as much as he should be.
The other sub 9:10 kids from this indoor season are the same guys who were the non-seniors in that top 12 from last year's outdoor state meet. Scott Routledge and Adam Hessler are two Pittsburgh guys who are hard to differentiate as they went 10th-11th at the state meet last spring, and both ran 9:04 this indoor season. They've both proven to be consistent, and are likely contenders for a medal in this field. It will be interesting to see if both/or just one of these guys can close the gap on that top tier of AA guys.
I'd say the last group of names to keep an eye on would be Zachary Gould of Trinity Christian (10th last spring, 9:56 3200 indoor), Brendan Colwell (9:09 indoor, great XC season), and Krystof Lapotsky (9:06c indoor out of nowhere, big sleeper in my opinion).
Lastly, the hardest to preview this early on in the season, would be the 4x800. I feel comfortable saying that Wyomissing isn't going to lose this race. They ran 8:08 indoor, (the next closest was 8:34 North East), and are the defending champs. They're just too deep, and I think this is a slightly down year for AA in the middle distances, so other than one team (who we'll get to), I just don't see anyone touching the Wyo squad.
Picking teams to watch for in a relay is tricky, especially in AA, where your data to work with is slim. I like programs with depth who have choices, so squads like Lewisburg and Jenkintown could throw together some solid relays. Elk County Catholic ran 8:02 last year and return some solid pieces.
I will say, if anyone is going to challenge Wyomissing, I really like Warrior Run. They've got depth, and a sub 2 open leg. It might be easy for AAA guys to smirk at that, but for these smaller schools, that's gold. They've got returning times of 1:59-2:03-2:04-2:07-2:11(freshman). I do think this program could do some damage and really challenge Wyomissing if they back up these times from last year. I'm sure Wyomissing's dream scenario would be to win gold in this race without Kuhn having to run, but I'm not so sure they can make that happen with Warrior Run in the picture.
One other program I wouldn't forget about is Riverside. They also ran 8:02 in the finals last year, and I like the look of Colby Belczyk developing as an ace in the 800 for the squad.
Hope you all enjoyed some new content! Pay attention to opening weekend!
Stay Happy, Stay Healthy
-The RunningHub
Saturday, March 16, 2019
Youthful Stars: Underclassmen in the Spotlight
Welcome back everybody! After our short break from content, expect to hop right back into a consistent groove of articles being published as we head into the spring season.
Because I didn't really do anything leading up to the national meet, shoutout to those who qualified and competed. The notable highlights for our PA boys were
-Kinne runs an impressive 9:11 in the Championship 2 Mile
-Council Rock South runs 7:54 with a 1:54 anchor from Ochs
-Seneca Valley dips under 18 in the 4xmile with splits of 4:24/4:23/4:40/4:28
-Cameron Binda continues to impress with a 4:17 PR and 3rd overall in EE
-Ian Miller runs 9:28 respectively in the EE 2 Mile
-David Endres picked up an all-conditions PR of 1:54.05 in the EE 800
A bunch of these performances have me really excited for our outdoor postseason. I'm hoping that we can get back to the 2015 era where we had a crop of guys statewide that were running in that 9:00-9:10 range. Ochs and Endres proved from this meet that as always, the District 1 AAA 800 is going to be madness. Lastly, can Binda actually challenge Powell for the title in AA outdoor?
These are all things to be considering as we head back to the 400 meter oval.
However, this is not the focus of our article today!
One of our commenters must be psychic, as they (rather sternly, but justifiably I suppose) pointed out that I promised you all a piece on some of our young stars from this past indoor season. Well, I had been putting it together, but figured, what better way to kick off our upcoming season?
Here is a more in-depth look at some of our up and coming studs you should absolutely have on your radar moving forward.
Eric Albright-Garnet Valley, Sophomore
The first two or three names on this list will be guys that really don't need much of an introduction. Albright was a guy who certainly wasn't quiet his freshman year, running 2:00.03 outdoor, but he really didn't catch any eyes until he opened his indoor season this winter. In a pretty standard weekend Lehigh meet, both Albright and Ricky Raup cemented themselves as dark horses in the 800 state picture, dipping below 2 on a flat track.
After this race, I pointed out Albright as a guy to watch, but I wasn't sure how long it would take for him to step up to another level.
Well, fast forward 3 weeks, and boy, did we see another level.
Albright's 1:56.86 at Ocean Breeze is one of the fastest for his grade in the past 10 years, and I think because we've been spoiled with guys like Shue and the Hoey's running so fast at such a young age, many did not appreciate how legit this race was.
Although he struggled at the state meet, the field was a group of veterans with a lot of experience, which is something Albright lacked. I have no doubts that Albright is a talented enough individual that we'll see mixing it up at the D1 800 final, and beyond.
Brayden Harris-Mifflin County, Sophomore
Another youngster that you've probably already heard me talk enough about, is the long-distance stud from central PA.
The kid has proven himself pretty dang well across the board. He's gone sub 4:30 indoor, he's shown a little speed with a 2:01, and then of course, his dominant performances in the 3000, that includes 4 performances this season at 9 flat or under (including his 3200). Even when you criticize his struggles in the 3k at indoor states, those negatives are quickly squashed by the fact that he anchored his DMR to a state silver.
The scariest part is that despite the large and still growing resume he's developed on the track, many people seem to forget that this kid was FOURTH at AAA XC states. I distinctly remember standing with Etrain along the final stretch, and after the Anderson/Kinne/McGoey trio went charging past, even I had to turn to Jarrett and say, is that Brayden Harris?? I think that because XC is so often discussed as a battle between the D7 and D1 kids, this performance was overlooked by many.
Harris will be an interesting name to follow in the spring, because although I expect him to drop some jaw-dropping times, I just don't see anybody touching Kinne, so we can only hope that Harris amongst a host of others can try and close that gap.
Robert DiDonato-Germantown Academy, Sophomore
There are a lot of reasons to be excited about DiDonato. While he may be a sophomore, its hard not to look at this kid as a rookie, seeing as that he only ran outdoor his freshman year. In his first XC season, we saw him run a blistering 16:07 at Lehigh, take down an accomplished veteran in Jeffrey Love for the private school state title, and then finish in the top 60 at Foot Locker regionals.
In his first look at an indoor track, he ran 4:29 converted mile, and got his first exposure to a real state field at PSU. Although it'll be back to the PAISAA for outdoor, if DiDonato hops in some strong invitational fields this spring, I have no doubt in my mind he can be a 4:22 type guy. Knowing Germantown Academy's success with distance stars in the past, I have no doubt that DiDonato is on the verge of becoming one of PA's biggest stars.
Gavin Brophy-West Chester Henderson, Freshman
Speaking of established programs developing young stars, West Chester Henderson might hold that title. The Chesmont league program has been a historic powerhouse, and over the past few generations we've seen the likes of the Barchet/Russell duo (debatably one of the best duos in PA history), as well as recently graduated, all-time PA great Spencer Smucker.
So naturally, when they have the fastest freshman in the 3k from this past indoor season, its hard not to be excited.
Gavin Brophy was justifiably quiet for most of his freshman XC campaign, before dropping a 16:01 at Districts out of literally, and I mean LITERALLY, nowhere. It was a well over a minute PR, and he followed up with a top 90 finish at PIAA states a week later.
While this was thought to be just a flash in the pan, Brophy proved to us that he is an up and coming threat with his 9:22 3000 at Yale in January, which would hold to be the fastest time for a freshman statewide by 8 seconds.
As a school that hosts some really elite high school meets for the region in the outdoor season, look for Brophy to hop in some really good fields and hit some really quick times.
*I'm operating under the assumption that there is no relationship to Jake Brophy from CB East, but if someone could confirm or deny that, that would be a really interesting tidbit of info to have*
Zachary Brill-Malvern Prep, Freshman
Another southeast PA youngster that has caught some attention also hails from the PAISAA, like DiDonato. The 9th grader from Malvern has already amassed a lot of big meet experience in his first few seasons. He held his own to finish 3rd behind DiDonato and Love at XC PAISAA states, and went on to finish 5th in the 9th grade race at Foot Locker.
Although he didn't qualify for the state meet, his sub 4:40's got him into the freshman race at NBIN, where he dropped another few seconds to hit 4:35. That's the fastest mile from a freshman since Baublitz, Hoey, and Shultz all were sub 4:34 as freshmen two years ago. That's pretty dang good company to be in.
I think having DiDonato will really help Brill rise to the occasion outdoor, and generally elevate the competition of the PAISAA, which I think will benefit everyone.
Matthew Puleio-Meadville Area, Freshman
Our last featured youngster would be found out west, who, I won't lie, caught my attention not only from what he's done this year, but some of his past.
A quick look at Puleio's resume, and you'll find that, as just an 8th grader, the kid ran 10:20 in the 3200! We often spend time discussing how a middle schooler is a star if they break 5, and this kid went out and averaged 5:10.
Well, what got Puleio here is not his distance ability, but his speed that he flashed at TSTCA's. His 2:02 is fastest amongst all freshman, and it was really only his second recorded 800 to date.
The combination of his childhood talent and his early signs of speed made it too hard for me to not put him on the list. While he only ran 4:48 indoor, I have a feeling that his 2:02 is a foreshadowing of a big breakthrough for the freshman out west.
Other impressive freshmen names to keep an eye on:
Weber Long, Greencastle-Atrim
Sean Adams, State College
Alex Kane, Southern Lehigh
Thomas Damiani, Owen J. Roberts
-The RunningHub
Because I didn't really do anything leading up to the national meet, shoutout to those who qualified and competed. The notable highlights for our PA boys were
-Kinne runs an impressive 9:11 in the Championship 2 Mile
-Council Rock South runs 7:54 with a 1:54 anchor from Ochs
-Seneca Valley dips under 18 in the 4xmile with splits of 4:24/4:23/4:40/4:28
-Cameron Binda continues to impress with a 4:17 PR and 3rd overall in EE
-Ian Miller runs 9:28 respectively in the EE 2 Mile
-David Endres picked up an all-conditions PR of 1:54.05 in the EE 800
A bunch of these performances have me really excited for our outdoor postseason. I'm hoping that we can get back to the 2015 era where we had a crop of guys statewide that were running in that 9:00-9:10 range. Ochs and Endres proved from this meet that as always, the District 1 AAA 800 is going to be madness. Lastly, can Binda actually challenge Powell for the title in AA outdoor?
These are all things to be considering as we head back to the 400 meter oval.
However, this is not the focus of our article today!
One of our commenters must be psychic, as they (rather sternly, but justifiably I suppose) pointed out that I promised you all a piece on some of our young stars from this past indoor season. Well, I had been putting it together, but figured, what better way to kick off our upcoming season?
Here is a more in-depth look at some of our up and coming studs you should absolutely have on your radar moving forward.
Eric Albright-Garnet Valley, Sophomore
The first two or three names on this list will be guys that really don't need much of an introduction. Albright was a guy who certainly wasn't quiet his freshman year, running 2:00.03 outdoor, but he really didn't catch any eyes until he opened his indoor season this winter. In a pretty standard weekend Lehigh meet, both Albright and Ricky Raup cemented themselves as dark horses in the 800 state picture, dipping below 2 on a flat track.
After this race, I pointed out Albright as a guy to watch, but I wasn't sure how long it would take for him to step up to another level.
Well, fast forward 3 weeks, and boy, did we see another level.
Albright's 1:56.86 at Ocean Breeze is one of the fastest for his grade in the past 10 years, and I think because we've been spoiled with guys like Shue and the Hoey's running so fast at such a young age, many did not appreciate how legit this race was.
Although he struggled at the state meet, the field was a group of veterans with a lot of experience, which is something Albright lacked. I have no doubts that Albright is a talented enough individual that we'll see mixing it up at the D1 800 final, and beyond.
Brayden Harris-Mifflin County, Sophomore
Another youngster that you've probably already heard me talk enough about, is the long-distance stud from central PA.
The kid has proven himself pretty dang well across the board. He's gone sub 4:30 indoor, he's shown a little speed with a 2:01, and then of course, his dominant performances in the 3000, that includes 4 performances this season at 9 flat or under (including his 3200). Even when you criticize his struggles in the 3k at indoor states, those negatives are quickly squashed by the fact that he anchored his DMR to a state silver.
The scariest part is that despite the large and still growing resume he's developed on the track, many people seem to forget that this kid was FOURTH at AAA XC states. I distinctly remember standing with Etrain along the final stretch, and after the Anderson/Kinne/McGoey trio went charging past, even I had to turn to Jarrett and say, is that Brayden Harris?? I think that because XC is so often discussed as a battle between the D7 and D1 kids, this performance was overlooked by many.
Harris will be an interesting name to follow in the spring, because although I expect him to drop some jaw-dropping times, I just don't see anybody touching Kinne, so we can only hope that Harris amongst a host of others can try and close that gap.
Robert DiDonato-Germantown Academy, Sophomore
There are a lot of reasons to be excited about DiDonato. While he may be a sophomore, its hard not to look at this kid as a rookie, seeing as that he only ran outdoor his freshman year. In his first XC season, we saw him run a blistering 16:07 at Lehigh, take down an accomplished veteran in Jeffrey Love for the private school state title, and then finish in the top 60 at Foot Locker regionals.
In his first look at an indoor track, he ran 4:29 converted mile, and got his first exposure to a real state field at PSU. Although it'll be back to the PAISAA for outdoor, if DiDonato hops in some strong invitational fields this spring, I have no doubt in my mind he can be a 4:22 type guy. Knowing Germantown Academy's success with distance stars in the past, I have no doubt that DiDonato is on the verge of becoming one of PA's biggest stars.
Gavin Brophy-West Chester Henderson, Freshman
Speaking of established programs developing young stars, West Chester Henderson might hold that title. The Chesmont league program has been a historic powerhouse, and over the past few generations we've seen the likes of the Barchet/Russell duo (debatably one of the best duos in PA history), as well as recently graduated, all-time PA great Spencer Smucker.
So naturally, when they have the fastest freshman in the 3k from this past indoor season, its hard not to be excited.
Gavin Brophy was justifiably quiet for most of his freshman XC campaign, before dropping a 16:01 at Districts out of literally, and I mean LITERALLY, nowhere. It was a well over a minute PR, and he followed up with a top 90 finish at PIAA states a week later.
While this was thought to be just a flash in the pan, Brophy proved to us that he is an up and coming threat with his 9:22 3000 at Yale in January, which would hold to be the fastest time for a freshman statewide by 8 seconds.
As a school that hosts some really elite high school meets for the region in the outdoor season, look for Brophy to hop in some really good fields and hit some really quick times.
*I'm operating under the assumption that there is no relationship to Jake Brophy from CB East, but if someone could confirm or deny that, that would be a really interesting tidbit of info to have*
Zachary Brill-Malvern Prep, Freshman
Another southeast PA youngster that has caught some attention also hails from the PAISAA, like DiDonato. The 9th grader from Malvern has already amassed a lot of big meet experience in his first few seasons. He held his own to finish 3rd behind DiDonato and Love at XC PAISAA states, and went on to finish 5th in the 9th grade race at Foot Locker.
Although he didn't qualify for the state meet, his sub 4:40's got him into the freshman race at NBIN, where he dropped another few seconds to hit 4:35. That's the fastest mile from a freshman since Baublitz, Hoey, and Shultz all were sub 4:34 as freshmen two years ago. That's pretty dang good company to be in.
I think having DiDonato will really help Brill rise to the occasion outdoor, and generally elevate the competition of the PAISAA, which I think will benefit everyone.
Matthew Puleio-Meadville Area, Freshman
Our last featured youngster would be found out west, who, I won't lie, caught my attention not only from what he's done this year, but some of his past.
A quick look at Puleio's resume, and you'll find that, as just an 8th grader, the kid ran 10:20 in the 3200! We often spend time discussing how a middle schooler is a star if they break 5, and this kid went out and averaged 5:10.
Well, what got Puleio here is not his distance ability, but his speed that he flashed at TSTCA's. His 2:02 is fastest amongst all freshman, and it was really only his second recorded 800 to date.
The combination of his childhood talent and his early signs of speed made it too hard for me to not put him on the list. While he only ran 4:48 indoor, I have a feeling that his 2:02 is a foreshadowing of a big breakthrough for the freshman out west.
Other impressive freshmen names to keep an eye on:
Weber Long, Greencastle-Atrim
Sean Adams, State College
Alex Kane, Southern Lehigh
Thomas Damiani, Owen J. Roberts
-The RunningHub
Tuesday, March 5, 2019
A Week of Reflection: State Recap Part II
Hello folks, as promised, here is the second half of our state recaps! While it might seem like this took a little long to get out given that states was now a full week ago, I actually decided to do this on purpose. While I'm sure its a little annoying, I was hoping the discussion would continue on the first post. I felt that after I recapped the XC state meet, there was such a steady drop off in viewership and content for the page, that I thought that spacing these things out a bit more would allow for continued and prolonged traffic for the site. I won't keep you all waiting any longer though, so lets dive into the action!
3000:
Despite all of the craziness that went on at the state meet this past weekend, the 3000 was one of the few events that went pretty much as expected. Similarly to XC, the long distances were dominated by the western PA kids. However, this time around, Zach Kinne finally got his long-awaited first PA gold. Despite the high caliber field, Kinne threw down the most impressive distance performance of the day, blowing away the field in a runaway fashion. His time of 8:33 is a top 5 time nationally, and was only two seconds off of Rusty's winning time last year. I found this part to be really impressive, because while Rusty went on a tear week after week last year, this was only Kinne's 3rd race of the year. I think the Duke commit still has a lot of upside heading into the spring, and I just don't see him losing the 3200 outdoors.
Behind Kinne though, we saw some great battles for the rest of the medals. The glorified 1-2 finish for NA that we talked about in XC came to fruition in this race, with McGoey throwing down a massive kick to barely eek out fellow WPIAL junior Zach Leachman for the silver. Jack Miller was many people's top pick to go out and challenge Kinne, and although that was not the case, the Jenkintown senior put up a great result of 8:51 and 4th place. For someone who was criticized for not living up to his XC performances on the track, Miller has now cemented himself as truly, one of the best distance runners in the state.
Rounding out the top 5 in this race was the Wyomissing junior Ben Kuhn. There were a lot of impressive aspects of Kuhn's race in my opinion. The range of being a 3000 state medalist and a key piece on a sub 8:10 relay is rare. On top of that, Kuhn opened up his season very early, racing on opening weekend back in early December. Typically, guys that race that hard and often over the course of the winter season can justifiably fizzle out before the postseason, so for Kuhn to be this consistent all year is an impressive feat in itself.
Ian Miller might be the least talked about runner in PA to have 3+ state medals. This was his second consecutive year medaling in the 3000, and after finishing 13th in XC, it seems as if Miller is inching closer and closer to a breakthrough race that puts him in the conversation as one of the best long distance guys in all of PA.
Two juniors in Andrew Healey and Christian Fitch rounded out the medalists. This was the first indoor state championship for both of these guys, and they walked away with hardware with one year still left on their resumes. These guys were 9:29 and 9:32 as just sophomores, and while Fitch will have his hands full in AAA, the Healey v Miller matchup in AA outdoor is shaping up to be wild.
Tough day for Brayden Harris to be the first out of the medals, but it should go without saying that this kid had an incredible season. He was the only sophomore or freshman in the field, and he ended up getting his team into the medals for the DMR anyways. Make no mistake, this youngster is one of the bright spots for PA's future.
DMR:
Although I got 7 of the 8 medalists in this race, I still really wasn't all that close. The DMR was a race where, in my preview, people seemed adamant about certain programs winning. I picked Haverford in an upset, some saw Seneca Valley defending their title with ease, while others like Jiminy Cricket justifiably believed that Downingtown West would assert their consistent postseason power and take the title. Popular commenter Yifter with the correct call though!
After a full season of talking about how I thought they didn't have enough firepower, LaSalle went out and dominated the field, blowing away the competition in a US #5 10:23.32. Watching the race, it became increasingly clear that LaSalle was the class of the field, as the relay of Twomey, Sieberlich, Costonis, and Ghantous eased away from the field with every respective leg. Their splits of roughly 3:09~50~1:59high~4:24 were a balanced attack that no other teams had a response for. I thought putting Twomey on the leadoff and trusting Sieberlich on the anchor was a really bold move, and clearly they were rewarded. Once Twomey outkicked Macknair on the 1200 leg for the lead, the rest was history.
Mifflin County does deserve a lot of credit though. A lot of people (including myself) thought their lack of experience mixed with some tough doubles would lead to their demise. Yet, a hard-fought leadoff leg for Macknair put the squad towards the front of the race, and they never really lost their spot back in 2nd.
The excitement of the came for the 3rd-8th spots. Downingtown West, Seneca Valley, and Haverford all started reeling Harris in on the anchor, but just ran out of room, Ketler in particular looked like he was really charging hard to catch guys in the last 100 meters or so. I wish the race coverage at least panned to the chase pack at some points, but the focus was really all on LaSalle's dominant performance. I was glad to see Twin Valley did end up snagging a medal after going all in on the event.
Because of the lack of coverage of the rest of the field, I couldn't really tell who the pieces of the other relays were. Did Anderson even run for Mt. Lebanon? If so, I'm a little disappointed with the boys from Lebo, because they would've had to just ran average to give Anderson the chance to try and run down most of the field.
Kudos to Lower Merion, as they were the one squad that snuck into the medals that I didn't pick to break the top 8.
4x8:
The first distance event of the day was a victory for me as someone who was trying to call the events. As I made pretty clear, I was going all in on Pennridge to win this thing, and I was very confident in this pick despite knowing how close the race was going to be. But nevertheless, Matt Eissler clutched up and helped the boys in white and green grab the title. As expected, Andersen Dimon bumped up in distance to leadoff the relay and give the squad an early lead. State College, CB West, and Pennridge continued to break off from the pack, and it seemed like a three team race heading into the last leg.
While Eissler may have anchored his relay to a state gold, he was far from the fastest split.
As already pointed out by one of our commenters, an absolutely herculean effort by Collin Ochs singlehandedly carried his Council Rock South squad from way 20+ meters back from the lead pack, into a 2nd place, and he nearly caught Eissler too. His reported 1:52 split is absolutely legit, and its a shame, because I think this effort took a little too much out of his legs, as I'm sure he had higher aspirations for the open 800. But make no mistake, that anchor leg from Ochs shows that he is jut as talented as any other 800 runner in the state right now. District 1 has Eissler, Zeh, Ochs, Hoey, Zelinsky, and all the Central Bucks West guys. Like last year, it is going to be absolute madness to just try and make the state meet out of District 1.
How can you not root for State College at this point? Despite having no established names in the middle distance landscape heading into the season, they somehow, for yet another year, ump out a sub 8 relay that will contend for state gold. Whether its the coaching, the team culture, or something else, this program has to be commended for its extreme consistency of performing at an elite level, regardless of the pieces they're given.
The same should go for CB West. Although they were picked as contenders to win, they were in contention for the duration of the race, and just couldn't quite hang on during the wild close in the last 100 meters. Because of the pack at the front, their 4th place makes it seem as if they were back in the middle of the race, but if Eissler gets the baton in front and doesn't sit on Fehrman (?) on the anchor leg, this race could unfold an entirely different way.
Congrats to the Indiana Area boys, who, were emphatic in their belief that they would prove some people wrong this weekend. Well, sometimes you gotta speak things into existence. They dropped an 8:03.96, and snagged a medal in 7th. Congrats boys.
Lastly, I was glad Radnor did end up squeezing into the top 8. They were very solid in both relays this year, but there was no guarantee that they could hang towards the front of a state field. They fell short in the DMR later in the day, so it was good to see that Zeh could hold off the LaSalle squad who finished 9th, to get this program a well-deserved medal.
Well folks, I know you're probably not thrilled with the wait, but I decided it would be for the best. As for nationals, I'll be throwing up a list of entries, and hopefully we can get some good discussion going. I don't have a plan as for what I'm going to be posting next in preparation for spring, so any and all recommendations are welcomed. Hopefully you guys can take some initiative in getting some discussion started, and I can act accordingly based off of what you guys would like to see. Thank you all for your continued support, and I hope that you guys are still finding this valuable to our coverage of the sport.
Cheers,
-The RunningHub
3000:
Despite all of the craziness that went on at the state meet this past weekend, the 3000 was one of the few events that went pretty much as expected. Similarly to XC, the long distances were dominated by the western PA kids. However, this time around, Zach Kinne finally got his long-awaited first PA gold. Despite the high caliber field, Kinne threw down the most impressive distance performance of the day, blowing away the field in a runaway fashion. His time of 8:33 is a top 5 time nationally, and was only two seconds off of Rusty's winning time last year. I found this part to be really impressive, because while Rusty went on a tear week after week last year, this was only Kinne's 3rd race of the year. I think the Duke commit still has a lot of upside heading into the spring, and I just don't see him losing the 3200 outdoors.
Behind Kinne though, we saw some great battles for the rest of the medals. The glorified 1-2 finish for NA that we talked about in XC came to fruition in this race, with McGoey throwing down a massive kick to barely eek out fellow WPIAL junior Zach Leachman for the silver. Jack Miller was many people's top pick to go out and challenge Kinne, and although that was not the case, the Jenkintown senior put up a great result of 8:51 and 4th place. For someone who was criticized for not living up to his XC performances on the track, Miller has now cemented himself as truly, one of the best distance runners in the state.
Rounding out the top 5 in this race was the Wyomissing junior Ben Kuhn. There were a lot of impressive aspects of Kuhn's race in my opinion. The range of being a 3000 state medalist and a key piece on a sub 8:10 relay is rare. On top of that, Kuhn opened up his season very early, racing on opening weekend back in early December. Typically, guys that race that hard and often over the course of the winter season can justifiably fizzle out before the postseason, so for Kuhn to be this consistent all year is an impressive feat in itself.
Ian Miller might be the least talked about runner in PA to have 3+ state medals. This was his second consecutive year medaling in the 3000, and after finishing 13th in XC, it seems as if Miller is inching closer and closer to a breakthrough race that puts him in the conversation as one of the best long distance guys in all of PA.
Two juniors in Andrew Healey and Christian Fitch rounded out the medalists. This was the first indoor state championship for both of these guys, and they walked away with hardware with one year still left on their resumes. These guys were 9:29 and 9:32 as just sophomores, and while Fitch will have his hands full in AAA, the Healey v Miller matchup in AA outdoor is shaping up to be wild.
Tough day for Brayden Harris to be the first out of the medals, but it should go without saying that this kid had an incredible season. He was the only sophomore or freshman in the field, and he ended up getting his team into the medals for the DMR anyways. Make no mistake, this youngster is one of the bright spots for PA's future.
DMR:
Although I got 7 of the 8 medalists in this race, I still really wasn't all that close. The DMR was a race where, in my preview, people seemed adamant about certain programs winning. I picked Haverford in an upset, some saw Seneca Valley defending their title with ease, while others like Jiminy Cricket justifiably believed that Downingtown West would assert their consistent postseason power and take the title. Popular commenter Yifter with the correct call though!
After a full season of talking about how I thought they didn't have enough firepower, LaSalle went out and dominated the field, blowing away the competition in a US #5 10:23.32. Watching the race, it became increasingly clear that LaSalle was the class of the field, as the relay of Twomey, Sieberlich, Costonis, and Ghantous eased away from the field with every respective leg. Their splits of roughly 3:09~50~1:59high~4:24 were a balanced attack that no other teams had a response for. I thought putting Twomey on the leadoff and trusting Sieberlich on the anchor was a really bold move, and clearly they were rewarded. Once Twomey outkicked Macknair on the 1200 leg for the lead, the rest was history.
Mifflin County does deserve a lot of credit though. A lot of people (including myself) thought their lack of experience mixed with some tough doubles would lead to their demise. Yet, a hard-fought leadoff leg for Macknair put the squad towards the front of the race, and they never really lost their spot back in 2nd.
The excitement of the came for the 3rd-8th spots. Downingtown West, Seneca Valley, and Haverford all started reeling Harris in on the anchor, but just ran out of room, Ketler in particular looked like he was really charging hard to catch guys in the last 100 meters or so. I wish the race coverage at least panned to the chase pack at some points, but the focus was really all on LaSalle's dominant performance. I was glad to see Twin Valley did end up snagging a medal after going all in on the event.
Because of the lack of coverage of the rest of the field, I couldn't really tell who the pieces of the other relays were. Did Anderson even run for Mt. Lebanon? If so, I'm a little disappointed with the boys from Lebo, because they would've had to just ran average to give Anderson the chance to try and run down most of the field.
Kudos to Lower Merion, as they were the one squad that snuck into the medals that I didn't pick to break the top 8.
4x8:
The first distance event of the day was a victory for me as someone who was trying to call the events. As I made pretty clear, I was going all in on Pennridge to win this thing, and I was very confident in this pick despite knowing how close the race was going to be. But nevertheless, Matt Eissler clutched up and helped the boys in white and green grab the title. As expected, Andersen Dimon bumped up in distance to leadoff the relay and give the squad an early lead. State College, CB West, and Pennridge continued to break off from the pack, and it seemed like a three team race heading into the last leg.
While Eissler may have anchored his relay to a state gold, he was far from the fastest split.
As already pointed out by one of our commenters, an absolutely herculean effort by Collin Ochs singlehandedly carried his Council Rock South squad from way 20+ meters back from the lead pack, into a 2nd place, and he nearly caught Eissler too. His reported 1:52 split is absolutely legit, and its a shame, because I think this effort took a little too much out of his legs, as I'm sure he had higher aspirations for the open 800. But make no mistake, that anchor leg from Ochs shows that he is jut as talented as any other 800 runner in the state right now. District 1 has Eissler, Zeh, Ochs, Hoey, Zelinsky, and all the Central Bucks West guys. Like last year, it is going to be absolute madness to just try and make the state meet out of District 1.
How can you not root for State College at this point? Despite having no established names in the middle distance landscape heading into the season, they somehow, for yet another year, ump out a sub 8 relay that will contend for state gold. Whether its the coaching, the team culture, or something else, this program has to be commended for its extreme consistency of performing at an elite level, regardless of the pieces they're given.
The same should go for CB West. Although they were picked as contenders to win, they were in contention for the duration of the race, and just couldn't quite hang on during the wild close in the last 100 meters. Because of the pack at the front, their 4th place makes it seem as if they were back in the middle of the race, but if Eissler gets the baton in front and doesn't sit on Fehrman (?) on the anchor leg, this race could unfold an entirely different way.
Congrats to the Indiana Area boys, who, were emphatic in their belief that they would prove some people wrong this weekend. Well, sometimes you gotta speak things into existence. They dropped an 8:03.96, and snagged a medal in 7th. Congrats boys.
Many fans knew it was likely that we would see a medalist from the slow heat. Although myself and a few others thought it would be Penncrest, it was the boys from CB south who dropped a lightning quick 8:03 to grab a solid 6th place medal.
Lastly, I was glad Radnor did end up squeezing into the top 8. They were very solid in both relays this year, but there was no guarantee that they could hang towards the front of a state field. They fell short in the DMR later in the day, so it was good to see that Zeh could hold off the LaSalle squad who finished 9th, to get this program a well-deserved medal.
Well folks, I know you're probably not thrilled with the wait, but I decided it would be for the best. As for nationals, I'll be throwing up a list of entries, and hopefully we can get some good discussion going. I don't have a plan as for what I'm going to be posting next in preparation for spring, so any and all recommendations are welcomed. Hopefully you guys can take some initiative in getting some discussion started, and I can act accordingly based off of what you guys would like to see. Thank you all for your continued support, and I hope that you guys are still finding this valuable to our coverage of the sport.
Cheers,
-The RunningHub
Wednesday, February 27, 2019
Recapping/Discussing the PTFCA States Action PART 1
Well ladies and gents, its hard to believe that after so much buildup, and so much hype, just like that, our indoor season in PA has come to a close (since NBIN is in New York). While truthfully, I didn't have a ton of time to watch the events live on Sunday, I did take the opportunity to sit down and watch all the races after the fact.
My initial reactions from a quick scan over the results were, "man, this year's meet was just flat out slow". Which, if you look at the results and results only, is a fair judgement to make. However, it didn't take much time and digging to discover many of the unfortunate circumstances that came to fruition over the weekend. In an unprecedented manner, we saw nasty spills from Josh Lewin and Tyler Shue in the mile (two different heats for that matter), and then one that took down Eissler in the early stages of the 800.
These undoubtedly had some major impacts at the top of both events that ultimately slowed things down. Not only did it take some major players out of the field, but anytime there is a big enough of a collision to take someone out of the race, it will naturally slow almost everyone else down in the field as well.
If there is any consolation for this chaos though, every runner that suffered a DNF ended up picking up medals in other events. Shue ended up getting his glory by winning the 800, while Eissler ended up with double golds in the 4x4 and 4x8, and Lewin's West Chester East squad grabbed a medal in the DMR.
800m:
This was a really fun race to go back and watch, as the top four broke away in the 3rd lap of this race, and it really just looked like a mad dash from that point forward. A push by Endres to the front pulled the top group away, while Hoey tried to go for glory with 200 to go. Ketler responded, but ultimately, Shue had the last gear and swung past all of them in the final curve, clinching his first state title.
I think part of the reason the winning time was so slow was due to the relaxed early pace, coming through in 56 high. I also think crowding the heats with more guys caused some more jostling for position (obviously) which overall impeded some comfortable, free racing to run quick times. I will say though, the lack of depth really surprised me. It took 1:57.85 to medal, which historically, is as slow as they come-
8th place finishers:
2018 1:55.37
2017 1:56.10
2016 1:56.99
2015 1:55.15
Again, obviously, having Eissler out played a role, but this race ended up being a bit underwhelming in my opinion. Its crazy to note that, Jonah Hoey ran slower than he did last year, and got 4th. He didn't even medal last year.
Hopefully, if the PTFCA cares even the slightest bit about giving these athletes a chance to run fast, then they'll take notice to the consequences of making larger heats. In the meantime, the athletes will have to adapt to still being able to run fast in crowded races.
Truthfully, I think Powell could've won this race. Although he locked up right at the very end, the kid completely solo'd his 1:56, and even casually pointed to someone in the crowd on the last lap. He looked comfortable enough for me to say that had he come in with a faster seed time, we'd be talking about how Conway and Powell both took home double golds in their senior year.
Closing note on this race, its crazy to think that Jack Balick was one place off of medaling. I had hyped this kid all year as a sleeper, so I thought it was cool to see him end up being the runner up to Powell in the first heat.
Mile:
While I didn't have the opportunity to post a preview for the mile (my dearest apologies), I did have the race coming down to Anderson and Powell, though I can admit, I would've picked Anderson. Like the 800, the top 4 separated themselves in this race, and it was pretty much a moshpit of guys within 1-2 seconds of one another for the last few medal spots. It should come as no surprise that a crop of experienced veterans in Anderson, Powell, and Wirth pulled away from the pack. The race I was pleasantly surprised by was Cameron Binda, the only other runner in the field to dip under 4:20. Binda has historically been a consistently been a state qualifier and a sub 4:25 guy, but this was the first time in my opinion that we really saw him step up and hang around the front of a field this good.
There was then a big four second gap back to the second half of medalists, which was Owori, Macknair, Twomey, and Shields. While none of these guys were surprises to land on the podium, this field was deep enough where none of them were guarantees. Klingenberg just missed out on his first track medal in PA, but held his own well given the fact that he raced so sparsely over the course of the indoor season.
The District 1 guys struggled a bit in this race. There was the fall from Lewin, and the remaining three D1 athletes all finished in the bottom three spots of the race. As for McComb, he really struggled in the XC postseason, yet still decided to kick off his season in early December, and I think that may have hurt him. As for Piercy, I don't think he had as overall as strong of a winter from when he made it last year, and I just think his fitness wasn't quite there. And finally, for Walker, as I predicted, we never really saw him again after his debut, which was when he qualified back in early December. My guess is this was treated as more of a tune-up for outdoor than a legitimate chance to run fast against PA's best.
Stay tuned for Part 2 coming at some point tomorrow!
-The RunningHub
My initial reactions from a quick scan over the results were, "man, this year's meet was just flat out slow". Which, if you look at the results and results only, is a fair judgement to make. However, it didn't take much time and digging to discover many of the unfortunate circumstances that came to fruition over the weekend. In an unprecedented manner, we saw nasty spills from Josh Lewin and Tyler Shue in the mile (two different heats for that matter), and then one that took down Eissler in the early stages of the 800.
These undoubtedly had some major impacts at the top of both events that ultimately slowed things down. Not only did it take some major players out of the field, but anytime there is a big enough of a collision to take someone out of the race, it will naturally slow almost everyone else down in the field as well.
If there is any consolation for this chaos though, every runner that suffered a DNF ended up picking up medals in other events. Shue ended up getting his glory by winning the 800, while Eissler ended up with double golds in the 4x4 and 4x8, and Lewin's West Chester East squad grabbed a medal in the DMR.
800m:
This was a really fun race to go back and watch, as the top four broke away in the 3rd lap of this race, and it really just looked like a mad dash from that point forward. A push by Endres to the front pulled the top group away, while Hoey tried to go for glory with 200 to go. Ketler responded, but ultimately, Shue had the last gear and swung past all of them in the final curve, clinching his first state title.
I think part of the reason the winning time was so slow was due to the relaxed early pace, coming through in 56 high. I also think crowding the heats with more guys caused some more jostling for position (obviously) which overall impeded some comfortable, free racing to run quick times. I will say though, the lack of depth really surprised me. It took 1:57.85 to medal, which historically, is as slow as they come-
8th place finishers:
2018 1:55.37
2017 1:56.10
2016 1:56.99
2015 1:55.15
Again, obviously, having Eissler out played a role, but this race ended up being a bit underwhelming in my opinion. Its crazy to note that, Jonah Hoey ran slower than he did last year, and got 4th. He didn't even medal last year.
Hopefully, if the PTFCA cares even the slightest bit about giving these athletes a chance to run fast, then they'll take notice to the consequences of making larger heats. In the meantime, the athletes will have to adapt to still being able to run fast in crowded races.
Truthfully, I think Powell could've won this race. Although he locked up right at the very end, the kid completely solo'd his 1:56, and even casually pointed to someone in the crowd on the last lap. He looked comfortable enough for me to say that had he come in with a faster seed time, we'd be talking about how Conway and Powell both took home double golds in their senior year.
Closing note on this race, its crazy to think that Jack Balick was one place off of medaling. I had hyped this kid all year as a sleeper, so I thought it was cool to see him end up being the runner up to Powell in the first heat.
Mile:
While I didn't have the opportunity to post a preview for the mile (my dearest apologies), I did have the race coming down to Anderson and Powell, though I can admit, I would've picked Anderson. Like the 800, the top 4 separated themselves in this race, and it was pretty much a moshpit of guys within 1-2 seconds of one another for the last few medal spots. It should come as no surprise that a crop of experienced veterans in Anderson, Powell, and Wirth pulled away from the pack. The race I was pleasantly surprised by was Cameron Binda, the only other runner in the field to dip under 4:20. Binda has historically been a consistently been a state qualifier and a sub 4:25 guy, but this was the first time in my opinion that we really saw him step up and hang around the front of a field this good.
There was then a big four second gap back to the second half of medalists, which was Owori, Macknair, Twomey, and Shields. While none of these guys were surprises to land on the podium, this field was deep enough where none of them were guarantees. Klingenberg just missed out on his first track medal in PA, but held his own well given the fact that he raced so sparsely over the course of the indoor season.
The District 1 guys struggled a bit in this race. There was the fall from Lewin, and the remaining three D1 athletes all finished in the bottom three spots of the race. As for McComb, he really struggled in the XC postseason, yet still decided to kick off his season in early December, and I think that may have hurt him. As for Piercy, I don't think he had as overall as strong of a winter from when he made it last year, and I just think his fitness wasn't quite there. And finally, for Walker, as I predicted, we never really saw him again after his debut, which was when he qualified back in early December. My guess is this was treated as more of a tune-up for outdoor than a legitimate chance to run fast against PA's best.
Stay tuned for Part 2 coming at some point tomorrow!
-The RunningHub
Wednesday, February 20, 2019
PTFCA State Championship Predictions: 800
Be sure to check out our predictions that have already been posted for the relays at PSU this weekend!
4x8 Predictions: https://pahsrunninghub.blogspot.com/2019/02/ptfca-state-championship-predictions-4x8.html
DMR Predictions: https://pahsrunninghub.blogspot.com/2019/02/ptfca-state-championship-predictions-dmr.html
800:
Accepted Entries-
1 Albright, Eric 10 Garnet Valle
2 Balick, Jack 12 Abing Friends
3 Branan, Kendall 11 Indiana Area
4 Cj, Thimons 11 Highlands
5 Eissler, Matt 12 Pennridge 6 Endres, David 12 CB East
7 Ford, Daniel 11 Quaker Valley
8 Hoey, Jonah 11 Bish Shanahan
9 Ketler, Seth 12 Seneca Valle
10 Messner, Joe 12 State College
11 Ochs, Collin 12 CR South
12 Powell, Jonah 12 Grove City A
13 Raup, Ricky 11 St. Joe Prep
14 Shields, Connor 12 Warwick
15 Shue, Tyler 11 Ephrata
16 Wirth, Tyler 12 Wallenpaupack
17 Wisner, Jack 12 Carlisle
18 Zajicek, Elias 12 Chartiers Valley 19 Zeh, Ethan 12 Radnor 20 Zelinsky, Jarett 12 Holy Ghost Prep
Initial Reactions:
The top 11 guys in the state are all entered, which is a real treat. We ended up having six scratches, which is a little less than average, which resulted in a decently quick cut off of 1:59.57. Some of the surprising entries in my opinion were Powell and Shields. Although I suppose with no relay duty and their main events (the mile) being earlier in the day, it makes no sense not to run it.
The race:
Ok, so back when there were 24 guys, there were 3 heats of 8, which makes rational sense. With 20 guys accepted, my guess is unfortunately this race gets a little more crowded with two heats? Will they do 10 and 10? I'm not entirely sure, so if anyone has any insight on this it would be much appreciated. For now, I'm going to operate under that assumption, but I will make the necessary adjustments to this post if I hear otherwise.
Heat 1-
CJ Thimons
Jonah Powell
Daniel Ford
Kendall Branan
Tyler Wirth
Jack Balick
Ricky Raup
Connor Shields
Joe Messner
Elias Zajicek
I'm used to breaking down the indoor 800 race by the three heats, so looking at this at a two section race really changes a lot of things. The higher number of guys in the slower section raises the likelihood that someone will take it out hard, which could end up throwing more guys into the medals that aren't from the fast heat. Of course, on the contrary, having more guys in the fast heat makes it harder for guys to medal in a slower section.
Realistically speaking, the way the 800 runs, there's bound to be one or two guys that lock up and open the door for medalists in the slower section. The question simply becomes, how many?
We saw three medalists outside the fast heat at last year's championships, but that was in an unorthodox scenario in which the middle section came through 400 faster than the top heat. I think having veteran milers in the field like Powell, Wirth, and Shields will help keep the pace honest in the middle of the race if things do go out hard, which could set up for a really fast race.
Thimons is the top seed in this section, but hasn't quite shown a knack for winning races this season. I like guys like Branan and Balick, who have come up with either a big win or a string of wins throughout the season. The two most talented guys in the field are hands down, Wirth and Powell, but both guys are running in off distances.
When it comes down to it, I think Powell is just a class above the rest of these guys in the 800, and ends up pulling away in a 1:55 type time to hop into the medals. I see Shields, Branan, and Balick all kicking hard close behind in 1:56-1:57 marks.
Heat 2-
Tyler Shue
David Endres
Matt Eissler
Jack Wisner
Seth Ketler
Jonah Hoey
Collin Ochs
Ethan Zeh
Eric Albright
Jarrett Zelinsky
While there are certainly cons with having the track slightly more crowded for the elite athletes, we are fortunate that we get to see all the best names in the event rightfully get to go head to head against one another. There's usually more than just eight guys that can compete for a top five finish, especially in an event as wild as the 800 (just take a lot at all the medals from outside the fast heat over the years). Every guy in this field has proven they belong here, and are not here from just one fluke race. Fun fact, the top eight guys in this field all have some type of individual state medal to their name.
This race might be the one I'm most excited for. Our top three seeds are some of the most well-known names in track and field over the past few years, yet all lack an individual gold medal. Of course, that list doesn't include Jonah Hoey, who arguably has the best resume in all of PA and lacks a gold himself. Seth Ketler has been apart of historically fast DMRs while Ethan Zeh is a returning outdoor medalist who has proven to be extremely consistent.
So how the heck could someone outside of this list of names win this thing?
Jack Wisner is fresh ladies and gentlemen.
The Pitt commit has historically had quiet indoor seasons, while unleashing impressive PR's of 4:18 and 1:56 in the spring. So naturally, when he went out and solo'd a 1:56 on a flat track this past weekend, people took notice.
If you aren't aware of Matt Wisner's epic high school career, I suggest you take a gander. The Duke athlete has been thriving in the middle distances, but could never capture a state gold in high school.
As Jack Wisner enters this weekend as the 4th seed and the only fresh one, is it possible that the Carlisle senior pulls an upset on a pack of guys that have been racing against each other for years?
Despite all the buildup hype I just gave him, I think he's going to come up just short.
Matt Eissler seems to be the logical pick, as he has proven to be the king of successful doubles after years of 4x8 duties. But, we can't forget that Endres did beat him head to head at Ocean Breeze. Honestly, I've had some inclination to pick Jonah Hoey to win this thing, but he's just been a little too flat for me this season to pick him to win. I think a lot of people are quick to pick Shue to win this thing, but he has very little experience successfully doubling back from a mile. Collin Ochs has been great at winning races this year, but is he ready to step up to the top tier and take everyone in PA down?
Seth Ketler got caught up in the unfortunate fall during the outdoor final last spring, and has to be hungry for vengeance. Zeh and Zelinsky are two extremely consistent 800 guys who will also have to overcome doubling back from the 4x8. Lastly, there's Eric Albright. The sophomore superstar has been a surprise to everyone this season. Can he drop another wild 2-3 second PR and compete at the front?
Ultimately, I think this race comes down to Eissler, Endres, Wisner and Shue. My guess is despite his excellent closing speed, the mile legs are too much for Shue to overcome, and Eissler gets his first state gold. Cheers to a double gold for the Penn commit! My guess is despite the heartbreak of yet another state silver, Shue learns his lesson and gets his gold this spring...
1. Matt Eissler 1:53.2
2. Tyler Shue 1:53.5
3. Jack Wisner 1:53.9
4. David Endres 1:54.2
5. Seth Ketler 1:54.6
6. Jonah Powell 1:55.1
7. Collin Ochs 1:55.1
8. Jonah Hoey 1:55.3
-The RunningHub
4x8 Predictions: https://pahsrunninghub.blogspot.com/2019/02/ptfca-state-championship-predictions-4x8.html
DMR Predictions: https://pahsrunninghub.blogspot.com/2019/02/ptfca-state-championship-predictions-dmr.html
800:
Accepted Entries-
1 Albright, Eric 10 Garnet Valle
2 Balick, Jack 12 Abing Friends
3 Branan, Kendall 11 Indiana Area
4 Cj, Thimons 11 Highlands
5 Eissler, Matt 12 Pennridge 6 Endres, David 12 CB East
7 Ford, Daniel 11 Quaker Valley
8 Hoey, Jonah 11 Bish Shanahan
9 Ketler, Seth 12 Seneca Valle
10 Messner, Joe 12 State College
11 Ochs, Collin 12 CR South
12 Powell, Jonah 12 Grove City A
13 Raup, Ricky 11 St. Joe Prep
14 Shields, Connor 12 Warwick
15 Shue, Tyler 11 Ephrata
16 Wirth, Tyler 12 Wallenpaupack
17 Wisner, Jack 12 Carlisle
18 Zajicek, Elias 12 Chartiers Valley 19 Zeh, Ethan 12 Radnor 20 Zelinsky, Jarett 12 Holy Ghost Prep
Initial Reactions:
The top 11 guys in the state are all entered, which is a real treat. We ended up having six scratches, which is a little less than average, which resulted in a decently quick cut off of 1:59.57. Some of the surprising entries in my opinion were Powell and Shields. Although I suppose with no relay duty and their main events (the mile) being earlier in the day, it makes no sense not to run it.
The race:
Ok, so back when there were 24 guys, there were 3 heats of 8, which makes rational sense. With 20 guys accepted, my guess is unfortunately this race gets a little more crowded with two heats? Will they do 10 and 10? I'm not entirely sure, so if anyone has any insight on this it would be much appreciated. For now, I'm going to operate under that assumption, but I will make the necessary adjustments to this post if I hear otherwise.
Heat 1-
CJ Thimons
Jonah Powell
Daniel Ford
Kendall Branan
Tyler Wirth
Jack Balick
Ricky Raup
Connor Shields
Joe Messner
Elias Zajicek
I'm used to breaking down the indoor 800 race by the three heats, so looking at this at a two section race really changes a lot of things. The higher number of guys in the slower section raises the likelihood that someone will take it out hard, which could end up throwing more guys into the medals that aren't from the fast heat. Of course, on the contrary, having more guys in the fast heat makes it harder for guys to medal in a slower section.
Realistically speaking, the way the 800 runs, there's bound to be one or two guys that lock up and open the door for medalists in the slower section. The question simply becomes, how many?
We saw three medalists outside the fast heat at last year's championships, but that was in an unorthodox scenario in which the middle section came through 400 faster than the top heat. I think having veteran milers in the field like Powell, Wirth, and Shields will help keep the pace honest in the middle of the race if things do go out hard, which could set up for a really fast race.
Thimons is the top seed in this section, but hasn't quite shown a knack for winning races this season. I like guys like Branan and Balick, who have come up with either a big win or a string of wins throughout the season. The two most talented guys in the field are hands down, Wirth and Powell, but both guys are running in off distances.
When it comes down to it, I think Powell is just a class above the rest of these guys in the 800, and ends up pulling away in a 1:55 type time to hop into the medals. I see Shields, Branan, and Balick all kicking hard close behind in 1:56-1:57 marks.
Heat 2-
Tyler Shue
David Endres
Matt Eissler
Jack Wisner
Seth Ketler
Jonah Hoey
Collin Ochs
Ethan Zeh
Eric Albright
Jarrett Zelinsky
While there are certainly cons with having the track slightly more crowded for the elite athletes, we are fortunate that we get to see all the best names in the event rightfully get to go head to head against one another. There's usually more than just eight guys that can compete for a top five finish, especially in an event as wild as the 800 (just take a lot at all the medals from outside the fast heat over the years). Every guy in this field has proven they belong here, and are not here from just one fluke race. Fun fact, the top eight guys in this field all have some type of individual state medal to their name.
This race might be the one I'm most excited for. Our top three seeds are some of the most well-known names in track and field over the past few years, yet all lack an individual gold medal. Of course, that list doesn't include Jonah Hoey, who arguably has the best resume in all of PA and lacks a gold himself. Seth Ketler has been apart of historically fast DMRs while Ethan Zeh is a returning outdoor medalist who has proven to be extremely consistent.
So how the heck could someone outside of this list of names win this thing?
Jack Wisner is fresh ladies and gentlemen.
The Pitt commit has historically had quiet indoor seasons, while unleashing impressive PR's of 4:18 and 1:56 in the spring. So naturally, when he went out and solo'd a 1:56 on a flat track this past weekend, people took notice.
If you aren't aware of Matt Wisner's epic high school career, I suggest you take a gander. The Duke athlete has been thriving in the middle distances, but could never capture a state gold in high school.
As Jack Wisner enters this weekend as the 4th seed and the only fresh one, is it possible that the Carlisle senior pulls an upset on a pack of guys that have been racing against each other for years?
Despite all the buildup hype I just gave him, I think he's going to come up just short.
Matt Eissler seems to be the logical pick, as he has proven to be the king of successful doubles after years of 4x8 duties. But, we can't forget that Endres did beat him head to head at Ocean Breeze. Honestly, I've had some inclination to pick Jonah Hoey to win this thing, but he's just been a little too flat for me this season to pick him to win. I think a lot of people are quick to pick Shue to win this thing, but he has very little experience successfully doubling back from a mile. Collin Ochs has been great at winning races this year, but is he ready to step up to the top tier and take everyone in PA down?
Seth Ketler got caught up in the unfortunate fall during the outdoor final last spring, and has to be hungry for vengeance. Zeh and Zelinsky are two extremely consistent 800 guys who will also have to overcome doubling back from the 4x8. Lastly, there's Eric Albright. The sophomore superstar has been a surprise to everyone this season. Can he drop another wild 2-3 second PR and compete at the front?
Ultimately, I think this race comes down to Eissler, Endres, Wisner and Shue. My guess is despite his excellent closing speed, the mile legs are too much for Shue to overcome, and Eissler gets his first state gold. Cheers to a double gold for the Penn commit! My guess is despite the heartbreak of yet another state silver, Shue learns his lesson and gets his gold this spring...
1. Matt Eissler 1:53.2
2. Tyler Shue 1:53.5
3. Jack Wisner 1:53.9
4. David Endres 1:54.2
5. Seth Ketler 1:54.6
6. Jonah Powell 1:55.1
7. Collin Ochs 1:55.1
8. Jonah Hoey 1:55.3
-The RunningHub
PTFCA State Championship Predictions: 4x800
Our next installment of predictions for this weekend's state championships are the 4x8! However, before you read this, make sure to check out our prediction post for the DMR, which already has some great discussion going on in the comments. Once all the predictions are posted, I'll be sure to throw up a main discussion post with links to each event.
4x8:
Accepted Teams:
1 Bensalem 2 Bishop Shanahan
3 Central Bucks East
4 Central Bucks South
5 Central Bucks West
6 Cheltenham
7 Council Rock North 8 Council Rock South
9 Downingtown West
10 Haverford Township HS 11 Holy Ghost Preparatory School
12 Indiana Area
13 LaSalle College High School
14 North Penn
15 Owen J. Roberts
16 Penn Wood
17 Penncrest
18 Pennridge
19 Radnor
20 State College Area High School
21 Wyomissing Area
Initial Reactions:
The two scratches from this field are Twin Valley and West Chester East, as they are going all in on the DMR to try and come away with a win (although yes, Lewin is running the mile).
The schools I'm most interested in seeing are the super deep ones such as CB West, LaSalle, Downingtown West, Haverford, to see which guys are and aren't on the relay.
If you told me at the beginning of the season that Shanahan would put out a 4x800 at states with Jonah Hoey on it, I probably would've laughed at you.
The race:
Heat 1-
Penncrest
Central Bucks South
Bensalem
Cheltenham
Central Bucks East
Holy Ghost
North Penn
Downingtown West
Council Rock North
Owen J Roberts
Penn Wood
There are a lot of interesting dynamics in this first heat. You have a lot of teams that made their way into this field with no ace whatsoever. Cheltenham, Council Rock North, North Penn, Owen J Roberts, and Penn Wood seemingly all made this field without having a single guy capable of going sub 2 (Blatz possibly).Then you have relays that will likely ride off the coattails of strong anchors such as Holy Ghost and CB East with Zelinsky and Endres. So how will things shake out?
I really like Penncrest and Central Bucks East in this first heat. Penncrest has quietly run very well this year, consistently holding their own in good fields both in PA and up in NY. They have a very balanced relay all while still having a legit solid sub 2 leg in Woolery. CB East has an army of guys to choose from, but with the high likelihood that Endres gets the baton behind a team like Penncrest, this anchor leg could end up being wicked fast.
There were two medalists from the first heat in last year's 2018 state championships, and I think while its possible, my guess is we only see one this year.
Heat 2-
Central Bucks West
Haverford Township
Pennridge
Council Rock South
Bishop Shanahan
State College
Wyomissing
Radnor
Indiana Area
LaSalle
Although we've become accustomed to seeing 7:40's and 7:50's galore over the past few years, make no mistake, this is an excellent state championship field.
I've said it all year, and I'm going to stick by it. I don't see Pennridge losing this race at full strength. I give credit to CB West for the times they've thrown down this year, and I think through 3 guys they're actually better than Pennridge, but I think this is Matt Eissler's race to lose. Anderson Dimon just blasted a record-setting 400 at MOC. Luke Eissler has proven he can be a consistent sub 2 guy. Yes, Laatsch and Shields are great 1:59-2:00 pieces for CB West, but I think when you match these teams up, the question becomes, can Luke Fehrman match up against Eissler with maybe a second gap or so on him? And when it comes down to that, naturally, I side with Eissler. I do think this is going to be a great race, but ultimately, I feel comfortable about picking Pennridge for this title.
This will be no two horse race though. Haverford is obviously, on paper, in contention to beat out both these teams. They ran 8:03 at Lehigh, and have 2 guaranteed sub 2 legs in Tomov and Campbell. After that, they have a great pool to pick from of Peetros, Fingerhut, Jack Roth, and even Donnelly.
The rest of the teams that I think have a legitimate chance to somehow win this thing would be Council Rock South and State College. As was discussed by some fellow readers on the last post, it was a bit of a surprise to see CR South opt for just the 4x8 over the DMR. Well clearly, they feel as if they can do some serious damage in this event. And who is to say they couldn't? They have one of the best legs in the field with Collin Ochs, another all-around talented runner in Kutney, and a 2:00-2:01 split type guy in Connor Dickel. I think Kutney could absolutely keep this team around the front of the race on a leadoff leg, and if whoever the fourth leg of this relay is can duplicate a 2:00 ish leg in the middle with Dickel, Ochs could absolutely anchor this relay home in a time well below 8:00.
My other sleepers for the win would be the boys from State College. It should go without saying that this program has proven itself time and time again that it can be a force in the middle distance events regardless of what pieces it has in the beginning of the season. And sure enough, heading into states this weekend, two pieces in Joe Messner and Zach Decarmine have emerged from the shadows. Like CR South, they also have proven 2:01 ish type guys on their middle legs with Marc Allerheiligen and Henry Ballard. While other teams have to prove they're deep enough through four legs, I think the key for State College will be having their new stars rise up to the occasion. Decarmine's 800 from the Carnival converts to a 1:57 high open mark. If the junior can ride this momentum to a 1:55ish split on the anchor, it might be just enough for the boys from Happy Valley to pull off a MASSIVE upset on their home turf.
LaSalle is obviously probably the deepest team here, but I just don't see them having the 1:55 leg or faster to propel them to a victory.
Shanahan is a huge question mark because of how unexpected their 8:09 at MOC, and while having Jonah on anchor will definitely put them towards the front, I think the major lack of experience from a majority of this relay will prohibit them from contending for a win.
On paper, Radnor honestly has all the pieces to contend for a win in this race. I think they'll be in contention for a high medal in this race, I just don't see it all coming together for them to win this whole thing.
Lastly, Indiana Area and Wyomissing are two smaller AA teams that should be applauded for their ability to make it into the fast heat at the state championships. Indiana Area has surprised us before (see XC), and Kendall Brennan has been running great lately, I just don't think they have quite enough firepower to contend for a win in this field. I have pretty much the same to say for Wyomissing.
Predictions:
1. Pennridge 7:53.9
2. Central Bucks West 7:54.8
3. State College 7:56.9
4. Council Rock South 7:57.1
5. Haverford 7:59.0
6. Bishop Shanahan 7:59.4
7. Penncrest 8:03.1
8. LaSalle 8:03.3
9. Radnor 8:03.9
-The RunningHub
4x8:
Accepted Teams:
1 Bensalem 2 Bishop Shanahan
3 Central Bucks East
4 Central Bucks South
5 Central Bucks West
6 Cheltenham
7 Council Rock North 8 Council Rock South
9 Downingtown West
10 Haverford Township HS 11 Holy Ghost Preparatory School
12 Indiana Area
13 LaSalle College High School
14 North Penn
15 Owen J. Roberts
16 Penn Wood
17 Penncrest
18 Pennridge
19 Radnor
20 State College Area High School
21 Wyomissing Area
Initial Reactions:
The two scratches from this field are Twin Valley and West Chester East, as they are going all in on the DMR to try and come away with a win (although yes, Lewin is running the mile).
The schools I'm most interested in seeing are the super deep ones such as CB West, LaSalle, Downingtown West, Haverford, to see which guys are and aren't on the relay.
If you told me at the beginning of the season that Shanahan would put out a 4x800 at states with Jonah Hoey on it, I probably would've laughed at you.
The race:
Heat 1-
Penncrest
Central Bucks South
Bensalem
Cheltenham
Central Bucks East
Holy Ghost
North Penn
Downingtown West
Council Rock North
Owen J Roberts
Penn Wood
There are a lot of interesting dynamics in this first heat. You have a lot of teams that made their way into this field with no ace whatsoever. Cheltenham, Council Rock North, North Penn, Owen J Roberts, and Penn Wood seemingly all made this field without having a single guy capable of going sub 2 (Blatz possibly).Then you have relays that will likely ride off the coattails of strong anchors such as Holy Ghost and CB East with Zelinsky and Endres. So how will things shake out?
I really like Penncrest and Central Bucks East in this first heat. Penncrest has quietly run very well this year, consistently holding their own in good fields both in PA and up in NY. They have a very balanced relay all while still having a legit solid sub 2 leg in Woolery. CB East has an army of guys to choose from, but with the high likelihood that Endres gets the baton behind a team like Penncrest, this anchor leg could end up being wicked fast.
There were two medalists from the first heat in last year's 2018 state championships, and I think while its possible, my guess is we only see one this year.
Heat 2-
Central Bucks West
Haverford Township
Pennridge
Council Rock South
Bishop Shanahan
State College
Wyomissing
Radnor
Indiana Area
LaSalle
Although we've become accustomed to seeing 7:40's and 7:50's galore over the past few years, make no mistake, this is an excellent state championship field.
I've said it all year, and I'm going to stick by it. I don't see Pennridge losing this race at full strength. I give credit to CB West for the times they've thrown down this year, and I think through 3 guys they're actually better than Pennridge, but I think this is Matt Eissler's race to lose. Anderson Dimon just blasted a record-setting 400 at MOC. Luke Eissler has proven he can be a consistent sub 2 guy. Yes, Laatsch and Shields are great 1:59-2:00 pieces for CB West, but I think when you match these teams up, the question becomes, can Luke Fehrman match up against Eissler with maybe a second gap or so on him? And when it comes down to that, naturally, I side with Eissler. I do think this is going to be a great race, but ultimately, I feel comfortable about picking Pennridge for this title.
This will be no two horse race though. Haverford is obviously, on paper, in contention to beat out both these teams. They ran 8:03 at Lehigh, and have 2 guaranteed sub 2 legs in Tomov and Campbell. After that, they have a great pool to pick from of Peetros, Fingerhut, Jack Roth, and even Donnelly.
The rest of the teams that I think have a legitimate chance to somehow win this thing would be Council Rock South and State College. As was discussed by some fellow readers on the last post, it was a bit of a surprise to see CR South opt for just the 4x8 over the DMR. Well clearly, they feel as if they can do some serious damage in this event. And who is to say they couldn't? They have one of the best legs in the field with Collin Ochs, another all-around talented runner in Kutney, and a 2:00-2:01 split type guy in Connor Dickel. I think Kutney could absolutely keep this team around the front of the race on a leadoff leg, and if whoever the fourth leg of this relay is can duplicate a 2:00 ish leg in the middle with Dickel, Ochs could absolutely anchor this relay home in a time well below 8:00.
My other sleepers for the win would be the boys from State College. It should go without saying that this program has proven itself time and time again that it can be a force in the middle distance events regardless of what pieces it has in the beginning of the season. And sure enough, heading into states this weekend, two pieces in Joe Messner and Zach Decarmine have emerged from the shadows. Like CR South, they also have proven 2:01 ish type guys on their middle legs with Marc Allerheiligen and Henry Ballard. While other teams have to prove they're deep enough through four legs, I think the key for State College will be having their new stars rise up to the occasion. Decarmine's 800 from the Carnival converts to a 1:57 high open mark. If the junior can ride this momentum to a 1:55ish split on the anchor, it might be just enough for the boys from Happy Valley to pull off a MASSIVE upset on their home turf.
LaSalle is obviously probably the deepest team here, but I just don't see them having the 1:55 leg or faster to propel them to a victory.
Shanahan is a huge question mark because of how unexpected their 8:09 at MOC, and while having Jonah on anchor will definitely put them towards the front, I think the major lack of experience from a majority of this relay will prohibit them from contending for a win.
On paper, Radnor honestly has all the pieces to contend for a win in this race. I think they'll be in contention for a high medal in this race, I just don't see it all coming together for them to win this whole thing.
Lastly, Indiana Area and Wyomissing are two smaller AA teams that should be applauded for their ability to make it into the fast heat at the state championships. Indiana Area has surprised us before (see XC), and Kendall Brennan has been running great lately, I just don't think they have quite enough firepower to contend for a win in this field. I have pretty much the same to say for Wyomissing.
Predictions:
1. Pennridge 7:53.9
2. Central Bucks West 7:54.8
3. State College 7:56.9
4. Council Rock South 7:57.1
5. Haverford 7:59.0
6. Bishop Shanahan 7:59.4
7. Penncrest 8:03.1
8. LaSalle 8:03.3
9. Radnor 8:03.9
-The RunningHub
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