Welcome back ladies and gentlemen! As I continue to work on our district team rankings, lets recap our 2nd weekend of meets! I'm looking to go pretty in-depth on these, so I will probably break the recap into two posts for time and sanity sake. If you take a look back at my weekend preview, I think its fair to say that while I was spot on for some things, I absolutely whiffed big time on some other predictions. But that's what makes the sport fun! So lets get into it!
Red, White & Blue Classic-
AAA: Well, we all knew who was going to hang around the top, it was just a matter of what the order was going to end up being. Well, despite concerns over the Tiger's depth, North Allegheny answered any doubts by not only winning, but dismantling other top 5 caliber teams in the state. NA did not just overcome the depth concern, they reversed many of our thoughts by showcasing it as a strength. The team put their entire 7 in the top 33, which was ahead of every other team's #5 guy! Beyond that, they had a #8 guy in Scott Nalepa who finished 36th. Nalepa is only a freshman, so it isn't unreasonable to fathom that he could even help bolster this scoring 5 by season's end. And of course, you can't sum this performance up without mentioning NA's biggest asset. The Duo of Kinne and McGoey flexed their guns in this race, storming to a 1-2 finish. Not only that, but it was a comfortable 1-2 finish by about 10 seconds, over state medalists in Owori, Anderson, and Ketler! Overall, this performance exceeded my expectations. Despite what I had to say about LaSalle in my district 12 preview, NA absolutely has a chance to dethrone the returning state champions. Outside of NA, Seneca Valley should not be slighted for their performance. They still very well have a chance to find themselves on the podium at Hershey in November. I don't think Ketler had his best race this weekend, and you could make an easy argument that Ketler, Owori, and Volk-Klos is the best trio in the state. However, until they can address their lack of depth, they will realistically not have a chance at hoisting a championship trophy, whether it be in their district or at states. Mount Lebanon is looking at an opposite problem here. The boys from Lebo love to pack up, and put together a great performance this weekend, but until they can give Anderson some help up front, they will not be able to breakthrough at the top. Also, I'll give myself a small shoutout for the Fitch call. The kid ran absolutely incredibly for just getting back into form. To see him take an entire field down barring possibly the top 2 kids in the state right now is an incredibly promising sign. Lastly, great races for Zach Leachman of Mars and Justin Carlson of Greater Latrobe. Leachman was just outside the top 50 at states as a sophomore last year, whereas Carlson dropped an absolutely ridiculous 1:20 PR to finish 10th for PA athletes.
AA: After a loss to Mount Lebanon a week ago, the Greensburg Salem boys came back with some intensity this weekend. The GS boys, similarly to NA, flexed their frontrunners while surprising us with some depth. While unsurprisingly putting their trio in the top 6, the GS squad cut off their scoring at just 17th place. Their 16:57 average (not to mention in a slower overall race) would've put them right around 4th/5th in the AAA race, right off some of the best teams PA has to offer. Greensburg Salem got caught up in a very deep AA race last year and fell to 7th at states. However, this year they've already proven to have addressed the depth issue that killed them last year, and are now favorites for the title as far as I'm concerned. All 6 teams ahead of GS from last year encountered heavy loss from graduation, whereas GS has continued to build. Outside of GS, Indiana Area finished runner up, albeit nearly 40 points back. Overall, they are a very balanced team. Led by Joey Bujdos and Matt Berzonsky in the top 10, they also placed all 5 in the top 25. This was a solid race for the Indiana Area boys. Individually, we saw great races from Jack Aulbach of Blackhawk and Daniel Ford of Quaker Valley. Aulbach was 4:35 and 9:58 as a sophomore, and as a fellow D7 AA runner, he will be hanging around this field for awhile to come. Quaker Valley is now 2 years removed from former standout Zach Skolnekovich, is the 4:33 junior Ford the next upcoming star from QV?
A: Not too much to say here outside of an absolutely dominant performance by Winchester Thurston. I questioned their ability to perform with the loss of Forsythe and Pollock, yet they came out and made easy work of Pittsburgh's A competition. Led by individual winner Scott Routledge, the WT squad scored everyone in the top 20, and better yet, without a single senior. The A race is shaping up to be an interesting one. I don't foresee it being super deep, but a possible Jenkintown v Winchester Thurston state championship is looking to be very fun to watch. Although the runners up from last year in Elk County Catholic return 3 of their top 5 from last year, Hoffman and Wortman will need to run better at the front in order for ECC to contend. Look out for Adam Hessler of Freedom (7) who finished 2nd in this race. He was 13th in A last year, and having run 9:40's, he has the potential to do more than just finish in the top 10.
25th Lackawanna County Commissioners Invitational-
There was a surprising upset in this one, off of an impressive performance from the Wyalusing Valley Area boys. I picked against them after finishing well off of General McLane last week, but they came out and picked up a well deserved win, scoring just 50 points. It was a great battle with Phoenixville, with both teams putting 3 in the top 9. However, it was WVA's edge in their pack that allowed them to come out on top. I thought Puleo had the chance to win this race, which would've essentially pulled Phoenixville to a tie and made this a different outcome. However, that's not what happened, and WVA is looking like a great contender for the district title in D4 A, though South Williamsport will be a solid challenge. Notably, another great win for Josh Christianson of Scranton. I didn't have him winning this race over Heeman, but he notched a 9 second victory and remains undefeated. I wouldn't say he's quite ready for a shot at Wirth and the district title, but he stands as the 2nd best runner in this district right now.
40th Annual Centaur Invitational-
In what was predicted to be a Twin Valley versus Owen J Roberts showdown, the race lived up the hype. These two programs dominated the meet, with OJR coming out on top, 48-55. With DeSales known for being a brutal course, only one man broke 17, and that was OJR's Linus Blatz. Blatz had an incredible spring, dropping PR's of 4:24 and 9:31, just missing out on the state meet. With Conway and the Malmstrom's graduated, he has taken the helm for the boys in red and white, and will look to help bring them back to the state championships for the second year in a row. I don't think Twin Valley had their best day, yet they were still 7 points off of a team victory. If Trey Hill can be a little more consistent and run up where he has in the past, this is a very dangerous team that, despite losing the Knorr twins last year, has the chance to improve upon their runner up finish at the District 3 meet a year ago. With a wide open field between Mechanicsburg, Hempfield, Carlisle and many others, District 3 has no favorite moving forward. Big shoutout to Alex Kane of Southern Lehigh for a monster race. The freshman is already asserting himself as one of the best in his class statewide. We've continued to see more and more freshman and sophomores crack the top 50 since Spencer Smucker medaled back in 2015, is Kane the next big star in PA?
Abington Invitational-
Similarly to Centaur, the team race came down to a two horse race between Great Valley and Council Rock South. Despite snagging the individual win with Collin Ochs, CR South came up decently short, losing by 14 points in a decently small meet. Great Valley used an absolute pack mentality, putting all 5 in the top 9 of the race with a 35 second timespread. Anytime you have a pack like that, you are a very dangerous team, especially in bigger races. I think Great Valley is amongst the many choices for one of the 6 qualifying spots out of District 1, however, they will need to have someone from this pack step up. It is very difficult to qualify out of district 1 without having someone finish in the top 25 or so. If Seth Hoffritz or Rahman Mohammed can step up and provide the front running that this team desperately needs, or any of the other pack members for that matter, the boys from GV will be looking for more than just qualifying, they will be one of the top teams in the district alongside OJR and Central Bucks East behind Dwest.
Check back later for our 2nd half of our weekend recap! Stay happy, stay healthy!
-The RunningHub
More excellent analysis. I am so glad that you took the initiative to start this blog, hats off to you. My thoughts on RWB:
ReplyDelete-Kinne is for real. He's not necessarily the next Affolder, but I think we can draw comparisons. I mean, he put almost a full minute on the #3 returner from states (Ketler). I got him winning states and trying to snag a spot at nationals.
-The WPIAL is loaded. The top 8 from the AAA race, plus Brown and Binda, are all proven studs. With D1 up in the air, I wouldn't be surprised to see 5 AAA guys in the top 10 come states. (Note: I realize I'm biased).
-Bold prediction: Patrick Anderson will be the runner-up at states.
-NA is looking like the NA of old. They are the best bet to take down LaSalle, with DWest not far behind.
-Who is Jack Aulbach? Big time breakthrough for him. He embodies my favorite part of XC: the guys who come out of nowhere. Add him to the list of guys like McComb and Klingenberg who have just stepped up their game.
-Apologies for the lack of attention to A/AA. Quick thoughts: Routledge might be a legit title threat (and his team is the favorite), watch out for CJ Singleton, and where's Kendal Branan? Put him back in Indiana's lineup, and they have a great top trio in AA.
Just like this past spring, I am keeping a statewide top 50 list (plus a WPIAL one) that I'll be updating. If the new sitemaster doesn't mind, I'd like to post them so we can keep discussion going. I don't know how many people are on this, but I for one will be a loyal reader. I hope this site takes off.
-Jiminy Cricket
Thank you for reading, and thank you very much for the analysis! Like Etrain said earlier, you know you're doing well when Jiminy Cricket hops on the blog. I very much agree with your comparison of Kinne to Affolder. He's not quite there, but its not difficult to draw parallels between the two. Your top 50 lists/WPIAL lists would be very much welcomed and appreciated! Feel free to post it in the comments, or if you would like, shoot me an email at pahsrunning@gmail.com, and we'll get it posted up on the site. Thanks again, and hope you enjoy!
Delete-The RunningHub