Our Savior Etrain11 Has Returned! (Well, partially)

Ladies and gentlemen, 99% of you probably are on this blog because you came here from Etrain. He was my inspiration to start this blog, and is probably an inspiration to many of you still competing. He was gracious enough to share his thoughts with us on the season so far, which are better than anything I put out, so how could I say no. Please enjoy!

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Hello again readership, it’s been a while. Thanks to the PAXCTF Hub for letting me spout off a few of my ramblings. I’ve only been very loosely monitoring the action from afar, but after the always great stretch of races that is Foundation, Carlisle and Paul Short, I had an itch to throw out a few thoughts. Here’s my top 7 thoughts from the first month of the season.

1. The AAA team race is setting up to be an all-time great race

For those of you who are new to an etrain post, I should warn you now that I do a lot of historical stuff so be prepared for the mentioning of a lot of names you don’t recognize. Now that I’ve gotten that disclaimer typed out, let’s move on.

It’s not every year that you get a wide open state championship race. Usually people will try to hype up a few other teams who aren’t quite state caliber, but typically they are just hoping rather than being realistic. There’s only been a few seasons where the race was actually between more than 1 or 2 teams. One of them, funny enough, was last year where I thought LaSalle, CRN, DT West and Seneca Valley all had a chance at victory. The last time we had that kind of race was 2009 (we can debate 2011 later).

This year’s edition could be even more fun. LaSalle’s 2018 squad is very deep and I think their 1-5 is the best and most experienced on paper. However, we saw that they missed having Evan Addison around as a low stick and that somebody (Maher, Koors, Twomey or a sleeper) will need to step up at states. The element of front running at the state championships sometimes gets overvalued (especially by people like me who love spread talk), but it’s incredibly rare to win a state title without multiple state medalists or a slew of top 50 guys. Last year was a somewhat wacky exception (LaSalle won the title with just 2 top 50 guys and 1 medalist, but CRN had 3 medalists and 4 top 50).

DT West looks a bit more like LaSalle’s 2017 team ironically. They’ve got a proven stud (Peyton Sewall), they have a redemption story (after winning districts last year over CRN, they took 3rd at states) and they are a powerhouse, absurdly deep program. DT West is now close to what Henderson was during my peak blogging years. No matter the circumstances, they are in the state championship discussion (4th, 1st, 3rd, 3rd the last 4 years at states). They showed their pack can beat anybody, running stride for stride with an awesome group of state champions from LaSalle. However, I still think they need to establish a #2 star alongside Sewall. Especially when you consider the front running they will be up against.

NA and Seneca Valley both look great. They put up terrific scores at a really loaded Foundation meet. They also both compete in the WPIAL which appears to be the best district in the state. That should set them up as experienced competitors by the time they hit November. Much like West, both of these teams have something to prove after slightly disappointing days at states last year. SV’s top 3 is unreal, but that 5-6 gap is something to watch. Realistically, that’s where the title could swing. Bad days always happen at states so you need that extra insurance.

By the way, NA was 12th last year at states, the team’s worst finish since 2005. In 2016, they finished 6th at states which was the first time they were outside the top 5 since 2005 (when they were also 6th). Most programs would be thrilled with 12th at states (I would have cut off some toes to be 12th at states my senior year of high school), but the Tigers know they can be better. Factor in that they return 6 of 7 from last year’s team that and that they added in the perennial favorite for state gold and you’ve got yourself a real title contender that looks awfully similar on paper to the 2010 squad that went all the way.

2. Will this be the year one team sweeps the top 2 spots at states?

Zach Kinne and Dan McGoey are the next pair on a long list of talented runners from the same school who are trying to finish in the 1-2 spot at the XC state championships. Kinne looks legit, logically reminding us of Noah Affolder’s transfer from a few years back (not sure Kinne is quite Affolder good, but he’s clearly a favorite for state gold and a Footlocker birth). Meanwhile Dan McGoey has quietly been a clutch performer who excels on the Hershey hills. His best two races from last season were probably Foundation and States (where he finished just a tic behind Noah Beveridge in 3rd place).

But there’s been dominant 1-2 punches before that have seen their streaks dashed at Hershey. One of the most memorable was Ian Gottesfield (defending state champ) and Greg Williams from Henderson who seemed destine for a 1-2 before Craig Miller pulled the upset. In 2008 you had Ben Furcht and Neal Berman as likely candidates after they finished as the top two names from PA at Paul Short. However, the Lower Merion duo struggled at states (neither even finished in the top 10) before rebounding at regionals as PA’s top two finishers.

The North Hills monster (swept the top 3 spots at WPIALs), Tony Russell and Reiny Barchet, the Hoeys, the Affolders and more all seemed to be in position to chase that illustrious podium finish, but none quite came to fruition (although Russell-Barchet and Affolder-Affolder did it at the regional meet). So maybe after all this time waiting around, this is the year it happens?

3. Jenkintown looks legit in A, who is the top team in AA?

We all have a tendency to get caught up in the large school stuff (just ask Ben Havleck), but let’s not overlook this Jenkintown team. This is a school in the smallest division we’ve got, but they are taking it to some top notch programs (GFS and Wyomissing are state caliber teams). They rolled through the White Race at Paul Short with a 100+ point win. They also beat the class of the A division in Winchester Thurston by 42 points at Foundation. Jack Miller has been on a tear (feels like top 20 at FLs could be in play if he has his day) and Carter Geer is one of the most impressive developments in the A division. Nothing is guaranteed, especially when you have 4 sophomores in your top 7, but this might be the best team in A or AA in 2018 and Miller is arguably the best individual (although I think that A state race is going to be interesting with the likes of Colton Sands and Andrew Healey staying involved).

Which reminds me, who is the top school in AA this year? I haven’t had to worry about any rankings so I haven’t been paying attention, but this one looks potentially even more up for grabs than AAA. Grove City is the top dog after their Foundation win, but that was only a narrow victory over Greensburg Salem (who has a monster top 3). Throw in York Suburban (a monster of a program) and Wyomissing (the defending state champions) and probably some other schools completely off my radar (if Indiana is healthy?) and you’ve got a fun pack that should make for a race just as exciting as last year’s (which was absurdly exciting by the way). Man, XC is so much fun.

4. Looks like a big year for the WPIAL

District One is usually the powerhouse, but it feels like this is the year that the WPIAL takes over. In 2016, after the Affolders transferred in and changed the game, District 3 took a huge leap forward. That lead to a 1-4 finish by the district at states. This year, it might be the WPIALs turn. They’ve got Kinne and McGoey, but they also have an absolute monster in Patrick Anderson (this kid has a real chance to split those guys by season’s end). Throw in the SV trio, an underrated talent in Zach Leachman, Aden Dressler of Butler (don’t sleep on him) and a few other names (Fitch if he’s healthy, Zack Marmol, the Lebo boys) and you’ve got yourself a nice list of medal threats from a district that only gets to send 15 individuals and 3 teams (or at least that was how it was back in my day).

5. Luke Klingenberg, Christian McComb, Josh Lewis among the breakthrough names  

Yes, Zach Kinne will dominate the headlines and rankings, but where did Cumberland Valley’s Luke Klinenberg come from? This kid just continues to impress, starting with an awesome showing at PTXC and then a sub 16 run in the slop at Carlisle. He may be District champ before all is said and done. That’s a huge talent that I’d never heard of before (and I’ve heard of a lot of dudes) who is a name you need to remember this season.

I think Christian McComb has a chance to win the state championship. It may sound crazy given the talent of the WPIAL guys, but McComb has been having a monster season and, as we saw in 2017, the kid shows up for the Hershey hills. He had one of the 2 or 3 most surprising performances last year and nearly snuck into the medals as just a soph. By the way, Boyertown is no stranger to getting results at Hershey. They had two different state champs in 2007 (Weller) and 2008 (Dennin) plus a top 3 guy in 2011 (Brett Kelly) and two top 50 guys just last year. It’s a longshot bet, certainly, but if you are giving me long shot odds, then I’ll put down some dollars.

Josh Lewis has also clearly taken a leap. Let’s not get it twisted, the kid was really, really good last year. He was sub 9:30 for 3200 on the track and dropped monster times in a monster district during XC. But this year something about his running seems a little more confident. The only real question for him now is can he handle the state championship stage. As good as Lewis looks, I think Powell might still be my pick for the W and to finally get Grove City the state gold they have been sniffing around for years.

6. Changing of the guard in District One?

This looks like a pretty open year. Obviously, DT West is still a super power, but after some other top programs lost some huge names to graduation, it feels like there will be some new blood coming out of the district for the first time. Owen J. Roberts is a team I’m watching closely. They lost their three best runners, including a program changer in Liam Conway and a state medalist in Andrew Malmstrom (plus their x-factor Kyle). However, after a 4th place finish at Paul Short, this team is lurking similar to how they looked a year ago right before they surged through the Pioneer and onto 3rd at Districts with under 200 points. Let’s see if they can prove 2017 was no fluke with another set of Hershey bars (I’m assuming teams still buy Hershey bars for their kids when they make states).

I like Haverford as a sleeper, they’ve got a strong young core, but they have been relatively quiet on the invitational stage to date. Great Valley seems like an up and coming squad and their program has a nice history of results in the past (they were consistent state qualifiers in the early part of this decade), and they really came through at Districts last year (an impressive 11th). They remind me a bit of the Spring Ford teams that have sniffed around the state bubble the past few years. West Chester East and CR South are a few other teams that might be in the mix this year after finishing outside the top 10 last year. It’s fun because if they make it we still have a West Chester and a Council Rock team in the state meet like always. They just wear different colors.

7. This new blog is looking great!

I appreciate the opportunity to guest star during my retirement tour. This new site looks great and I’d imagine it will grow quickly once people realize how special it is. Maybe the Hub will allow me to interject one last time around State week.

Stay classy,

Train