As promised folks, we're here to preview some of PA's finest talent on the trails and grass as they prepare for one more go around in the 2018 XC season. While PA will be well represented in each respective regional race, do any of our athletes have a legitimate shot at qualifying for NXN or FL?
NXR:
In an exciting surprise, all 4 of PA's top teams will be toeing the line up at Wappinger Falls. I expected North Allegheny and Downingtown West to appear in the entries, but I was happy to see that both Seneca Valley and LaSalle will also be running this weekend.
Realistically, Manhattan was a good indicator of where PA stands on the regional scene. There are a lot of powerhouse programs that are going to make it very difficult for any of our teams to make it to the west coast. However, I'm not ready to count out North Allegheny completely. While Dwest and LaSalle both got dismantled by a number of programs at Manhattan, I don't think either team ran very well, and North Allegheny proved that they're a slight step above the aforementioned squads. While the course isn't exactly a cakewalk, I think Kinne's postseason experience will bode him well for this regional race. If NA can put their duo in the top 10, they'll at least give their pack a fighting chance to maybe pull off an upset.
As for our individuals, I think anyone that wants to qualify will have to do it outright. I don't foresee any of our athletes earning an at-large bid. Again, like the team race, I think PA as a whole is buried a bit back in all the madness, but of course, we have athletes capable of sneaking in. The Unionville trio, the Seneca Valley duo, Payton Sewall, and the Tigers' duo all have some sort of possibility at making their way through to nationals. Keep an eye on Cole Walker. Kent Hall only finished 11th at the state meet his senior year before he went on to finish 6th at NXR at make it to nationals. Unionville knows how to prep their athletes for the big races, so Walker has some big upside in my opinion.
FL Regionals:
I don't have a full list of entries for this meet, but we have a decent idea of who we should expect to see from PA. With Mount Lebanon opting not to run at NXR, we will get to see state champion Patrick Anderson try and continue his hot streak and qualify for FL nationals out in San Diego. Truthfully, I think this is our safest chance of a qualifier between either regional race. PA has started to string a couple consecutive years of qualifiers (at least the past 5 years dating back to Ross Wilson in 2013), so history tells us we will likely get one athlete through. Anderson has proved to be both a gutsy and resilient runner, and I think this, coupled with his momentum will have Anderson pushing for a top 5 finish.
Outside of Anderson, our next two big guns are likely Jack Miller and Christian McComb. We've discussed both of these guys a lot this season, and rightfully so. Miller has not actually lost an XC race this season. You can say this or that about his classification and such, but anytime you come into a regional race still undefeated, you make for a promising candidate. McComb proved that he can excel against out of state competition when he popped of PA's fastest 4k time up at Manhattan. He'll also be extra motivated to bounce back from a tough states race. On paper, I have both of these guys just barely on the outside looking in, but don't be shocked if either of these guys pops a big race off and gets PA two male athletes to San Diego.
If anyone can get their hands on a full FL entries list, that would be greatly appreciated!
-The RunningHub
I think NA has a decent shot at making it. Two low sticks and improving runners 3-7 will make it close. LAS has an outside shot. Honestly, I didn't think they had their A game at states.
ReplyDeleteFootlocker: Does anyone know who else is entered?
I'm old so I don't really know how PA guys stack up right now, but I hope we have some good performances
ReplyDeletehttps://pa.milesplit.com/articles/252136/?page=3
ReplyDeletehttps://ny.milesplit.com/articles/252122-new-york-and-northeast-nxn-regional-previews
PennTrack and New York's Milesplit did nice previews of the races, I suggest checking them out. For Nike, I predict Kinne qualifies individually. I really like his previous experience running at regionals and nationals. McGoey should be close too and could get in if the region gets an at-large team qualifier. Then again, he might just take care of business and be in that top 5 right off the bat. That's all I see for PA individuals getting through, but I'll list my predictions for the top 15 PA guys:
1. Kinne
2. McGoey
3. Healey
4. Walker
5. Wirth
6. Sewall
7. Ketler
8. Twomey
9. Owori
10. Valderrabano
11. Hess
12. Maher
13. Quintana
14. Driver
15. Koors
Teamwise, I am really pumped to see the top 4 from states all entered. NY's preview has NA at #6 in the region, with LAS, DTW, and SV bunched closely together at 9, 11, and 12 respectively. Based on that, I think we have to say that we probably won't get a team in the top 2. NA is great but I think they are missing a #3 guy near Kinne/McGoey that would put them over the hump. Still, the subplot of who wins this rematch is worth watching. You gotta imagine that each team is hungry to be PA's top representative. A bounceback from Barnhill and Seiberlich to what they are capable of would go a long way for DTW and LAS. I think SV ran about as well as they could at Hershey, maybe Domencic could pick up a few spots at the 5. In the end though, I'll say it will be the same team order from states.
I haven't found the entries for Footlocker either so I'm basing this off of who was mentioned in PennTrack's writeup. They have Anderson as our best bet, but I actually think it is Miller. I honestly have the impression that he has not had to go all out this year until the last mile at Hershey. He has experience at this meet from last year. I love a good underdog, and I think Jack Miller is just that.
Anderson is right up there too. Why not cap this dream season with a berth to San Diego? I guess the only two things holding me back are 1) maybe he hit his peak and 2) does he have the sub 15:40 it might take to qualify? But you know what, here's what I come back to: he's the state champion. The past 6 AAA champs have all made it to nationals. He beat two guys who, if they were in this race, I would probably have little doubt would make it through. So I'll pick Anderson for top 10 too.
As with NXR, I think 2 is the magic number. I don't think anyone else will qualify, but that doesn't mean they won't end their seasons on high notes.
1. Miller
2. Anderson
3. Fitch
4. Harris
5. Klingenberg
6. McComb
7. Lewis
8. Brown
9. Dorenkamp
10. DiDonato
Final note: I am really rooting for Josh Lewis. He has not had his best races at states, but we should not forget how great he was earlier in the year. During September and October, he could match up with anyone in the state. He just seemed to run out of gas. I will go as far to say that he is the best XC runner in state history to never win a state medal. With that, I think he deserves a great final race on the trails.
Best of luck to all our athletes on Saturday. As ForrestCRN might say, PA Don't Play.
-Jiminy Cricket