PTFCA State Championship Predictions: 4x800

Our next installment of predictions for this weekend's state championships are the 4x8! However, before you read this, make sure to check out our prediction post for the DMR, which already has some great discussion going on in the comments. Once all the predictions are posted, I'll be sure to throw up a main discussion post with links to each event. 

4x8:

Accepted Teams:
1  Bensalem                                                     2  Bishop Shanahan                                             
3  Central Bucks East                                          
4  Central Bucks South                                         
5  Central Bucks West                                          
6  Cheltenham                                                  
7  Council Rock North                                           8  Council Rock South                                          
9  Downingtown West                                            
10  Haverford Township HS                                        11  Holy Ghost Preparatory School                               
12  Indiana Area                                                
13  LaSalle College High School                                 
14  North Penn                                                  
15  Owen J. Roberts                                             
16  Penn Wood                                                   
17  Penncrest                                                   
18  Pennridge                                                   
19  Radnor                                                      
20  State College Area High School                              
21  Wyomissing Area    

Initial Reactions:
The two scratches from this field are Twin Valley and West Chester East, as they are going all in on the DMR to try and come away with a win (although yes, Lewin is running the mile).

The schools I'm most interested in seeing are the super deep ones such as CB West, LaSalle, Downingtown West, Haverford, to see which guys are and aren't on the relay.

If you told me at the beginning of the season that Shanahan would put out a 4x800 at states with Jonah Hoey on it, I probably would've laughed at you.

The race:

Heat 1-
Penncrest
Central Bucks South
Bensalem
Cheltenham
Central Bucks East
Holy Ghost
North Penn
Downingtown West
Council Rock North
Owen J Roberts
Penn Wood

There are a lot of interesting dynamics in this first heat. You have a lot of teams that made their way into this field with no ace whatsoever. Cheltenham, Council Rock North, North Penn, Owen J Roberts, and Penn Wood seemingly all made this field without having a single guy capable of going sub 2 (Blatz possibly).Then you have relays that will likely ride off the coattails of strong anchors such as Holy Ghost and CB East with Zelinsky and Endres. So how will things shake out?

I really like Penncrest and Central Bucks East in this first heat. Penncrest has quietly run very well this year, consistently holding their own in good fields both in PA and up in NY. They have a very balanced relay all while still having a legit solid sub 2 leg in Woolery. CB East has an army of guys to choose from, but with the high likelihood that Endres gets the baton behind a team like Penncrest, this anchor leg could end up being wicked fast.

There were two medalists from the first heat in last year's 2018 state championships, and I think while its possible, my guess is we only see one this year.

Heat 2-
Central Bucks West
Haverford Township
Pennridge
Council Rock South
Bishop Shanahan
State College
Wyomissing
Radnor
Indiana Area
LaSalle

Although we've become accustomed to seeing 7:40's and 7:50's galore over the past few years, make no mistake, this is an excellent state championship field.

I've said it all year, and I'm going to stick by it. I don't see Pennridge losing this race at full strength. I give credit to CB West for the times they've thrown down this year, and I think through 3 guys they're actually better than Pennridge, but I think this is Matt Eissler's race to lose. Anderson Dimon just blasted a record-setting 400 at MOC. Luke Eissler has proven he can be a consistent sub 2 guy. Yes, Laatsch and Shields are great 1:59-2:00 pieces for CB West, but I think when you match these teams up, the question becomes, can Luke Fehrman match up against Eissler with maybe a second gap or so on him? And when it comes down to that, naturally, I side with Eissler. I do think this is going to be a great race, but ultimately, I feel comfortable about picking Pennridge for this title.

This will be no two horse race though. Haverford is obviously, on paper, in contention to beat out both these teams. They ran 8:03 at Lehigh, and have 2 guaranteed sub 2 legs in Tomov and Campbell. After that, they have a great pool to pick from of Peetros, Fingerhut, Jack Roth, and even Donnelly.

The rest of the teams that I think have a legitimate chance to somehow win this thing would be Council Rock South and State College. As was discussed by some fellow readers on the last post, it was a bit of a surprise to see CR South opt for just the 4x8 over the DMR. Well clearly, they feel as if they can do some serious damage in this event. And who is to say they couldn't? They have one of the best legs in the field with Collin Ochs, another all-around talented runner in Kutney, and a 2:00-2:01 split type guy in Connor Dickel. I think Kutney could absolutely keep this team around the front of the race on a leadoff leg, and if whoever the fourth leg of this relay is can duplicate a 2:00 ish leg in the middle with Dickel, Ochs could absolutely anchor this relay home in a time well below 8:00.

My other sleepers for the win would be the boys from State College. It should go without saying that this program has proven itself time and time again that it can be a force in the middle distance events regardless of what pieces it has in the beginning of the season. And sure enough, heading into states this weekend, two pieces in Joe Messner and Zach Decarmine have emerged from the shadows. Like CR South, they also have proven 2:01 ish type guys on their middle legs with Marc Allerheiligen and Henry Ballard. While other teams have to prove they're deep enough through four legs, I think the key for State College will be having their new stars rise up to the occasion. Decarmine's 800 from the Carnival converts to a 1:57 high open mark. If the junior can ride this momentum to a 1:55ish split on the anchor, it might be just enough for the boys from Happy Valley to pull off a MASSIVE upset on their home turf.

LaSalle is obviously probably the deepest team here, but I just don't see them having the 1:55 leg or faster to propel them to a victory.

Shanahan is a huge question mark because of how unexpected their 8:09 at MOC, and while having Jonah on anchor will definitely put them towards the front, I think the major lack of experience from a majority of this relay will prohibit them from contending for a win.

On paper, Radnor honestly has all the pieces to contend for a win in this race. I think they'll be in contention for a high medal in this race, I just don't see it all coming together for them to win this whole thing.

Lastly, Indiana Area and Wyomissing are two smaller AA teams that should be applauded for their ability to make it into the fast heat at the state championships. Indiana Area has surprised us before (see XC), and Kendall Brennan has been running great lately, I just don't think they have quite enough firepower to contend for a win in this field. I have pretty much the same to say for Wyomissing.

Predictions:
1. Pennridge  7:53.9
2. Central Bucks West 7:54.8
3. State College 7:56.9
4. Council Rock South 7:57.1
5. Haverford 7:59.0
6. Bishop Shanahan 7:59.4
7. Penncrest 8:03.1
8. LaSalle 8:03.3

9. Radnor 8:03.9

-The RunningHub