Lets take a look at our first BIG district rankings, checking out some of our state's finest talent in the WPIAL!
D7 A: (SQ Spots:4)
1- Winchester Thurston
In what should be pretty self-explanatory, the boys of WT find themselves as the clear cut favorites out of D7 for A. After a flashy showing at R,W&B, Winchester Thurston has their eyes set on a state title. There's a chance we even see the WT boys take it easy at their district meet in anticipation of their battle with Jenkintown and Co. the following week. Scott Routledge has top 5 finisher potential, and this team is well-rounded. Benjamin Bermann will need to improve as the team's #5 if they want to walk away atop the podium at Hershey, but we are still nearly two months away from the state meet.
2- Riverview
As we start to exit the "early season" and get into midseason form, Riverview has emerged as the next best team behind WT in my opinion. Mason Ochs has made an incredible jump to cement himself as a solid #1 for the squad, and the rest of his team is starting to fill in behind him. Despite having their #5 man back around the 19:50's, this is where their entire back end of the varsity squad is, meaning there is a fair chance this team will push each other and eventually close up that time spread. Add in Gideon Deasy as a solid #2, and this team is looking very comfortable with snagging one of the top 4 state spots.
3- Shenango
Shenango is an interesting program. They boast a spread of just 40 seconds from 1-5, and they actually have the best #7 in the entire district (including WT). That being said, this team fails to have anyone under 18:20 right now/anyone in the top 15 of the district. This is a situation where Shenango's depth will be extremely useful in landing in the top 4 and advancing to states, but without any true front runner, they will not find themselves at the front of meets, nor will they be able to succeed at states.
4- Chartiers Houston
5- Serra Catholic
6- Laurel
I switched the order on these teams about a million times, and this is finally what I decided on. None of these teams exactly have the flashiest times, so I did my best to really go and look at how these teams have done in terms of their finishes. Well, Chartiers Houston hasn't run since R,W&B where they were a surprise top 5 finisher as a team. I like their upside, and not to mention that they beat Serra Catholic by roughly 40 points there as well.
D7 AA: (SQ Spots: 3)
1- Greensburg Salem
As should be expected, the boys from GS are district title favorites again. Similarly to Winchester Thurston, I think this squad's focus is already more on the state meet the following weekend, where they will look to take down General McLane, York Suburban, and a host of other schools. While Mark Brown and Cameron Binda are favored to finish 1-2, they will not have it easy, due to the emergence of new stud Jack Aulbach from Blackhawk. While I don't imagine GS losing this meet, I don't think they can afford to be as comfortable as WT is. There are some solid squads in this district that we're going to touch on, so Noah Calisti and Quintin Gatons will have to run well as the 4th and 5th men of GS to ensure a district title.
2- New Castle
In one of the surprises of the season so far, New Castle remains undefeated on the season, picking up wins at both McDowell and the Big Red Invitational. They've taken down a host of other AA and AAA schools, including Taylor Allderdice, Butler, North East (x2), Harbor Creek, Grove City, and Cochranton (A). The squad has a perfect set up, led by front runner Anthony Litrenta, who has hung in well with some of the top AA talent statewide, especially at McDowell. The rest of this scoring 5 sits within 13 seconds of each other, and is all under 17:35. Despite possibly not winning their district, New Castle might be one of the best teams in AA right now. Will some of Greensburg Salem's stiffest competition come straight from its own district?
3- Indiana Area
The Indiana Area squad is currently slotted in for the last team spot out of District 7. Runners up to Greensburg Salem at R,W&B, we've touched on this squad already this season. With a really solid duo of Budjos and Berzonsky, this squad will have to run well enough to hold off Ringgold to advance to Hershey. I don't think this team is quite on the level of their counterparts listed above them, but I do feel that this team is the clear, established, 3rd best team in this district. They have the best depth outside of the top 2 teams, and have enough pieces to have an off day from someone at districts and still advance.
D7 AAA: (SQ Spots: 3)
1- North Allegheny
Should be no surprise here. Regarded by many as the favorite for the AAA state title, the Tigers sit atop District 7. Despite housing some of the best team firepower in all of PA, NA might be one of the most obvious favorites in any AAA district, which I think is a testament to just how good this program is. We will see their first true exposure to statewide talent this weekend, where they will have a rematch with their fellow WPIAL powerhouses, on top of some of eastern PA's best talent at the Foundation meet. With Kinne and McGoey at the helm, are the Tigers primed to snag their first team title since 2014?
2- Seneca Valley
Up next in D7 is the team that many picked to have the best shot at dethroning LaSalle before the news of Kinne's transfer at the end of last year. Seneca Valley undoubtedly has the best trio in the state, returning two state medalists in Sam Owori and Seth Ketler, as well as Connor Volk-Klos, who many argue was a medal threat as well before a poor states race last fall. The depth is starting to fill in well for Seneca Valley, with Aidan Domencic and Max Weaver running well as of so far in the #4 and #5 positions. I think if this team has any chance to stun NA, it has to start from up front. While the Tigers opened up with a 1-2 finish at R,W&B, I thought SV's trio didn't race up to their fullest capability. I think if Owori, Ketler, anf Volk-Klos can fill in right behind the NA duo to keep things mostly even up front, the back half of SV's scoring 5 will have a fighting chance to stack up against NA's pack behind their dynamic duo. NA's not invulnerable, but SV will have to be perfect.
3- Mount Lebanon
Having opened up their season with a couple wins, the Mt. Lebo boys put themselves in a position to advance to yet another state championship. In fact, with the resume they've put down so far this fall, they have every right to be ahead of Seneca Valley. But, we've seen this before. Mt. Lebo is known for being a state title contender in the early season seemingly every fall, and then lose steam towards the end of the season. In most years, they just sneak through past districts. Other years, they aren't even that lucky. So for now, they are here to stay amongst the top teams in the district. But, they have to keep this up. Patrick Anderson looks more than stellar as of now, and this team is certainly one of the best in AAA right now. But like I said, for now.
4- Upper Saint Clair
If any team is going to pull a dramatic upset in the postseason and knock Mount Lebanon, I think its this Upper St Clair team. They've quietly strung together some solid performances. Although they've fallen short to Mt. Lebo in both of their performances, their pack is able to hang with Mt. Lebo through 4. If Shaw can continue to run well as a front runner, and if they can develop a better 5th man, this team, might, just might, be able to pull a massive upset.
Tuesday, September 18, 2018
District 8 and 9 Team Rankings
D8 AAA: (SQ Spots: 1)
1- Taylor Allderdice
Combined with District 10, Allderdice still looks favored to win yet another district title. Despite the loss of the two great runners in Ethan Hermann and Tavonne Davis, this is still a surprisingly complete squad. With 4 guys under 17:30, Allderdice may struggle to make an impact on the statewide AAA level, but they will most likely steamroll through D8 and D10.
D9 A: (SQ Spots: 2)
1- Elk County Catholic
Fresh off of a team win at the Bradford Invitational, ECC looks primed to return to Hershey for yet another year. Led by the 8th place finisher from last year's state championships, Ben Hoffman is primed for another district title. Isaac Wortman helped ECC put 2 in the top 3 at districts last fall, can he repeat this? No matter what questions there are about ECCs depth, if Hoffman and Wortman can deliver the kind of performance they put on last year, ECC should have no issues. Look for ECC to put possibly 4 in the top 10 of this district meet, but then struggle with their drop off at #5. The question becomes, can this team's solid top 4 help them replicate their podium finish from last year, or will their lack of a 5th man push them way back from the 2nd place they delivered last fall?
2- Cranberry
3- Clarion Area
With two teams fighting for the last spot out of District 9, it felt fitting to put them together, because they're so similar. Unlike ECC, both teams here utilize tight pack running and strong depth up through 7 guys. I gave the edge to Cranberry because of the big advantage they have with their #2 runner in Daniel Fisher. With likely 2 top 10 finishes, and then an even balance between the rest of the teams' scoring 5's, I foresee Cranberry just coming away with the second spot and headed to Hershey.
D9 AA: (SQ Spots: 1)
1- Bradford Area
Look for Bradford to take the lone state spot for another consecutive season. Led by Tyler Kraft, Bradford currently has their entire top 5 in the top 13 of the small district. As the only team with all scorers under 19, let alone 19:30, Bradford's focus will likely be on improving their 17th place finish at states last fall.
1- Taylor Allderdice
Combined with District 10, Allderdice still looks favored to win yet another district title. Despite the loss of the two great runners in Ethan Hermann and Tavonne Davis, this is still a surprisingly complete squad. With 4 guys under 17:30, Allderdice may struggle to make an impact on the statewide AAA level, but they will most likely steamroll through D8 and D10.
D9 A: (SQ Spots: 2)
1- Elk County Catholic
Fresh off of a team win at the Bradford Invitational, ECC looks primed to return to Hershey for yet another year. Led by the 8th place finisher from last year's state championships, Ben Hoffman is primed for another district title. Isaac Wortman helped ECC put 2 in the top 3 at districts last fall, can he repeat this? No matter what questions there are about ECCs depth, if Hoffman and Wortman can deliver the kind of performance they put on last year, ECC should have no issues. Look for ECC to put possibly 4 in the top 10 of this district meet, but then struggle with their drop off at #5. The question becomes, can this team's solid top 4 help them replicate their podium finish from last year, or will their lack of a 5th man push them way back from the 2nd place they delivered last fall?
2- Cranberry
3- Clarion Area
With two teams fighting for the last spot out of District 9, it felt fitting to put them together, because they're so similar. Unlike ECC, both teams here utilize tight pack running and strong depth up through 7 guys. I gave the edge to Cranberry because of the big advantage they have with their #2 runner in Daniel Fisher. With likely 2 top 10 finishes, and then an even balance between the rest of the teams' scoring 5's, I foresee Cranberry just coming away with the second spot and headed to Hershey.
D9 AA: (SQ Spots: 1)
1- Bradford Area
Look for Bradford to take the lone state spot for another consecutive season. Led by Tyler Kraft, Bradford currently has their entire top 5 in the top 13 of the small district. As the only team with all scorers under 19, let alone 19:30, Bradford's focus will likely be on improving their 17th place finish at states last fall.
Monday, September 17, 2018
District 10 Team Rankings
D10 A: (SQ Spots:2)
1- Cochranton
The clear cut favorites out of D10, and one of the top 5 teams in A statewide, Cochranton is proving they are a force to be reckoned with this fall. Led by duo Noah Bernarding and Jac Cokley, this team has had some mixed results to kick off their 2018 fall campaign. They opened up with a win at the Hornet Harrier Invite, faltered a little bit at the Big Red Invite last week, but delivered a solid performance this past weekend at Commodore Perry. They were runners up to a very good AA Harbor Creek team, and were able to gap the rest of the field by over 20 points. They don't have the best spread, but often times in the A classification, schools are small, so having any depth at all is valued highly. Right now, I have this team power ranked at 4th in A right now, and should have no problem within their district.
2- West Middlesex
The other state spot out of District 10 is slated to go to West Middlesex. They're a very similar team to Cochranton, they just don't quite have the #2 punch that Jac Cokley serves for his squad. Luke Mantzell is a great leader for this team who will be challenging for the district title, and the Chlpka twins round out this team's top 3. Based off of how the other teams within the district look, as long as Mantzell can serve as the low stick he's expected to be, this team shouldn't have too much to worry about within the district other than Cochranton.
D10 AA: (SQ Spots:2)
1- General McLane
This district is going to be crazy! It was already crazy, but with the addition of North East, its truly going to be wild. This was a hard decision, but I felt that right now, despite not racing since opening weekend, General McLane just offers the most complete team through 5. The individual race between Price, Powell, and Lewis is going to be one for the ages, and should set up for an epic rematch at states. Either way, as long as Price can deliver a top 3 finish, with Dylan Throop and Erik Andrzejewski putting up top 10 finishes as well, GM will take the district crown and avoid the madness for the 2nd team spot. On top of their solid front running, they have the best #5 man in the field in Tim Fair. As I said, I think this is the most complete team on paper, and the title is theirs' to lose- for now.
2- North East
3- Grove City
This one was crazy hard to decide. Truthfully, it took me awhile to sort out 2nd through 4th. When it came down to it, I think this final spot could be decided a single point, and with Josh Lewis on the roster, I gave the edge to North East. Usually, two guys fighting for an individual title don't have a huge impact on scoring compared to their teammates, seeing that its really only a 1 point swing up front. However, the Powell versus Lewis race might be the deciding factor for the team qualifying. Both teams have run extremely well to kick off the year, and they match up nearly identically man by man, when comparing each team's top 5. With this one too close to call, I decided to go with my gut. I think Lewis is the man to beat for the title, so I have North East advancing to Hershey as of right now.
4- Harbor Creek
As I mentioned in our weekend recap, this Harbor Creek squad is one that is still coming together, and one that I truly believe has the raw talent to go toe to toe with any of teams listed above them. With the best 1-2 punch in the district, it will be up to Nolan Weber, Caleb Mandel, and most importantly, someone like freshman Max Dailey as a #5 to step up and solidify this team's scoring 5. I could see a 4th/5th finish for Starvaggi and Weber, so if they could realistically keep the rest of the scorers in the top 40 and keep the score around 100, it might be enough on a given day to slide into a state qualifying spot.
D10 AAA:
1- Cathedral Prep
Mixed with District 8 this year (according to sources on Penntrack), I'm not exactly sure how qualifying will work team-wise or individually wise. That being said, I'll just stick to the numbers I have access to. Cathedral Prep is actually a decent squad, led by Devan Bailey who ran 17:20 at R,W&B. With a full varsity squad sub 20, they will have a chance to go up against a Taylor Allderdice squad from D8.
1- Cochranton
The clear cut favorites out of D10, and one of the top 5 teams in A statewide, Cochranton is proving they are a force to be reckoned with this fall. Led by duo Noah Bernarding and Jac Cokley, this team has had some mixed results to kick off their 2018 fall campaign. They opened up with a win at the Hornet Harrier Invite, faltered a little bit at the Big Red Invite last week, but delivered a solid performance this past weekend at Commodore Perry. They were runners up to a very good AA Harbor Creek team, and were able to gap the rest of the field by over 20 points. They don't have the best spread, but often times in the A classification, schools are small, so having any depth at all is valued highly. Right now, I have this team power ranked at 4th in A right now, and should have no problem within their district.
2- West Middlesex
The other state spot out of District 10 is slated to go to West Middlesex. They're a very similar team to Cochranton, they just don't quite have the #2 punch that Jac Cokley serves for his squad. Luke Mantzell is a great leader for this team who will be challenging for the district title, and the Chlpka twins round out this team's top 3. Based off of how the other teams within the district look, as long as Mantzell can serve as the low stick he's expected to be, this team shouldn't have too much to worry about within the district other than Cochranton.
D10 AA: (SQ Spots:2)
1- General McLane
This district is going to be crazy! It was already crazy, but with the addition of North East, its truly going to be wild. This was a hard decision, but I felt that right now, despite not racing since opening weekend, General McLane just offers the most complete team through 5. The individual race between Price, Powell, and Lewis is going to be one for the ages, and should set up for an epic rematch at states. Either way, as long as Price can deliver a top 3 finish, with Dylan Throop and Erik Andrzejewski putting up top 10 finishes as well, GM will take the district crown and avoid the madness for the 2nd team spot. On top of their solid front running, they have the best #5 man in the field in Tim Fair. As I said, I think this is the most complete team on paper, and the title is theirs' to lose- for now.
2- North East
3- Grove City
This one was crazy hard to decide. Truthfully, it took me awhile to sort out 2nd through 4th. When it came down to it, I think this final spot could be decided a single point, and with Josh Lewis on the roster, I gave the edge to North East. Usually, two guys fighting for an individual title don't have a huge impact on scoring compared to their teammates, seeing that its really only a 1 point swing up front. However, the Powell versus Lewis race might be the deciding factor for the team qualifying. Both teams have run extremely well to kick off the year, and they match up nearly identically man by man, when comparing each team's top 5. With this one too close to call, I decided to go with my gut. I think Lewis is the man to beat for the title, so I have North East advancing to Hershey as of right now.
4- Harbor Creek
As I mentioned in our weekend recap, this Harbor Creek squad is one that is still coming together, and one that I truly believe has the raw talent to go toe to toe with any of teams listed above them. With the best 1-2 punch in the district, it will be up to Nolan Weber, Caleb Mandel, and most importantly, someone like freshman Max Dailey as a #5 to step up and solidify this team's scoring 5. I could see a 4th/5th finish for Starvaggi and Weber, so if they could realistically keep the rest of the scorers in the top 40 and keep the score around 100, it might be enough on a given day to slide into a state qualifying spot.
D10 AAA:
1- Cathedral Prep
Mixed with District 8 this year (according to sources on Penntrack), I'm not exactly sure how qualifying will work team-wise or individually wise. That being said, I'll just stick to the numbers I have access to. Cathedral Prep is actually a decent squad, led by Devan Bailey who ran 17:20 at R,W&B. With a full varsity squad sub 20, they will have a chance to go up against a Taylor Allderdice squad from D8.
Sunday, September 16, 2018
Weekend Recap #3 (9/14-9/15)
Aaaaanndddd welcome back ladies and gentlemen to another installment of our weekend recaps! While there weren't many huge meets, we certainly had some fireworks, and we finally got some answers with our district team matchups. Its still very early in the season, but we're starting to see the state picture take its form. So lets hop into it!
Bradford Invitational-
In no huge surprise here, Elk County Catholic came out and picked up a solid win over some decent teams in Bradford and Clarion Area, who surprised me with a runner up finish. ECC dominated this race though, taking 4 of the top 8 spots. Unfortunately, as has been the problem with many teams this fall, their lack of a 5th man really hurt them in this meet. For measure, their top 4 combined for just 19 of the team's 53 points. The remaining 34 came from the drop off at #5. While they won decently comfortably in this meet, Clarion and other teams like Cranberry that have much stronger depth can make things interesting for the District 9 race. A solid individual win for Ben Hoffman as he defends his title from a year ago. Despite running slightly slower this year, a win is still a win. I would've picked him to win the A race at R,W&B last week, so its good to see him bounce back after his 3rd place finish. As mentioned, Clarion is not a bad team. With 2 team spots out of D9 A, it will be interesting to see if a team structured like Clarion with a deep pack can handle ECC any differently come the postseason. Shaping up to be a fun one!
George School Invite-
No big shockers in this one either. Jeffrey Love defends his title in strong fashion, running over 10 seconds faster in his title defense this year. Some great races behind Love though. Two duos from Germantown Academy and Malvern Prep rounded out the top 5, highlighted prominently by their youth. Germantown Academy junior Robert DiDonato came up 6 seconds short of almost stealing the title from Love, and it was his XC debut! The GA sophomore ran 4:38 as a freshman last spring, and has seemingly decided to try his luck at XC. If he was 6 seconds off of a seasoned veteran in Love in his debut, he might just be the favorite for the Independent League State title. Not to be outdone though, freshman from Malvern Prep Zachary Brill made his debut in his first HS race and came away with a top 3 finish and a 16:46! Despite being a freshman, Brill is experienced, having run 2:12 and 4:49 as just a middle schooler. Having graduated some great runners in Borger and Lindgren this past year, the private school side of PA is seemingly whipping up its next great batch of talent. Collin Hess finishes 4th in this race with a respectable sub 17 performance, within 10 seconds of his freshman teammate. I still think Hess has the capability to be one of the top talents in the area and classification, after running 16:20 and 9:57 as a freshman last year. With Brill alongside him now, this could be a deadly duo. Lenape (NJ) blew the field away for the team title, but the finish for PA teams was exciting. GFS took 2nd in this meet, holding off Phoenixville by a mere point, 104-105. Despite putting no one in the top 12, GFS used a bunched up top 3 all in the top 20 to hold off Phoenixville. For Phoenixville, this is the 2nd week in a row they've come up just short of being the top PA team. I still like Puleo as an individual though and I think he has stock as a possible state qualifier out of D1.
Altoona Mt. Lion XC Invitational-
As expected, without State College in the picture, Mifflin County was able to steamroll their way to victory, scoring just 48 points, and winning by double that amount. I think despite the craziness that will ensue out in District 1 and District 3, come the postseason, Mifflin County might be the best team statewide that sits home the weekend of Hershey. Having just one team come out of D6 has always been brutal, whether it be State College struggling to get past Wade Endress and Altoona 6 years ago or so, or whether it be Mifflin County now. I'm not completely ruling them out from having a shot at upsetting State College, but obviously they are far from favored, and will have to tighten up their spread if they want any shot at stunning the Little Lions. I have to give a shoutout to Ian Zimmerman for the individual victory though. Taking down the Mifflin County duo of Macknair and Harris, this was a huge breakthrough race for him. After winning a weak district last year as just a freshman, is this Zimmerman's statement race that puts him in contention for a high medal finish at states?
Boardman Spartan Invitational-
Before we hop onto the inevitable NA discussion, lets highlight the other PA performances here. Jonah Powell made his debut this weekend, and he did not disappoint. Before you look at times, know that Boardman is a merciless course, and that this was truly, an elite field. Powell came away with a 5th place finish overall, and notably was 15-16 seconds off of Dan McGoey (who we will touch on soon). Powell is the top returner in the state in AA, and blazed to stunning times of 4:18/1:55 this past spring. I'd like to call Powell the favorite for now, but he has a hell of a field behind him. Between Price, the Harbor Creek boys, the Greensburg Salem boys, and many others, a state title for Powell is far from certain, though this is an excellent start. Sticking to individuals, Josh Lewis just keeps getting better. He won the D3 race with a 16:11, which is arguably the most impressive PA performance of this weekend! Its crazy to think that Lewis just went out and had debatably a stronger race than McGoey, who is regarded by many as probably the 2nd best runner in the state right now. I feel foolish, having spent so much time talking about the A race between Miller, Healey, and Sands, but Lewis may have just jumped all of them with this race and thrust himself into the driver seat for the A title. Edit: Thanks to our commenter for clarifying that Lewis is indeed AA, not A. Powell versus Lewis will still be an absolute blast. Now we can talk about NA. I don't want to talk too much about the absence of Kinne, as I'm sure it was just a rest weekend for him, but it makes me wonder if he's even on the same plan as the rest of the team. Rest assured though, I'm sure the Tigers have it all under control. Obviously this was a fantastic race from McGoey, who continues to cement himself behind Kinne for a possible 1-2 finish at states. I'm looking for the NA pack to be just a hair closer to McGoey though. To my best estimates, I would say this course runs 10-15 seconds slower than Briarwood (both are unforgiving courses). With that conversion, the packs are essentially dead even, and it comes out to NA having an advantage with the duo up front. Yet, this was LaSalle's debut, whereas NA has been racing and experienced. I think this battle is going to be closer than people even think, and I'm not quite sure I'm ready to put Downingtown West up with these two teams anymore. This is going to be fun folks.
Bulldog Invitational (Rose Tree)-
As predicted, we saw a "B" team of sorts out of Dwest this weekend. Methacton put on a solid performance with Garrett Campbell picking up the win and Matt Varghese picking up 3rd. Methacton isn't quite on the list of teams I have fighting for a SQ spot out of District 1, but this is a solid win nonetheless, and we should at least keep an eye on them moving forward. This is a nice win for Campbell, who barely broke 17 last year, and now opens his season with a 17:11 win. Varghese just missed out on a state spot last year in XC, running 16:27. He seems to be still finding his early season form, but he is a solid XC runner who has the possibility to find himself in the top 30 or so come districts. A BIG sleeper to keep an eye on here is Ethan Zeh of Radnor. He ran 16:39 last year, yet ran a minute faster at Bulldog this year compared to last. The 1:54/4:27 speedster clearly benefits from a faster course like Lehigh, so don't be surprised if this kid comes from nowhere and steals a state spot come districts.
Commodore Perry Invitational-
A solid win for Harbor Creek as this team's top 5 starts to find its form. This team isn't built to be a powerhouse, but I wouldn't completely rule them out of contention out of AA. There is the possibility for Weber and Starvaggi to give HC two of the top 5 at states, and I liked what I saw out of their #3 and #4 in this race. Nolan Weber and Caleb Mandel are starting to close that gap just a little bit, but that spread is crucial. And while the #5 man is back a little far, Max Dailey is just a freshman. Anytime you have such a young piece in your scoring 5, big jumps are not just possible, but sometimes likely. Obviously this team has some work to do, but the potential is there for this team to come together. Cole Frazier of Hickory continues his hot start to his season. He has consistently been running 30-40 seconds faster in all of his meets this year, and is looking like a guaranteed medal threat.
Kiski Area Cross Country Invitational-
Another week, another win for Mount Lebanon. It looks like some of the varsity guys got to rest, while Patrick Anderson picks up another individual win on the season. As mentioned by one of our readers (much appreciated for the info), Fox Chapel sat out Fitch, and thus we missed out on a opportunity for a great individual race. Having mentioned them both already this year, we saw more solid races out of Greater Latrobe's Justin Carlson, and Indiana Area's Joey Budjos.
White Clay Creek Classic-
We finally got some 5k's out of Unionville this weekend. Despite most of the squad running in different races, here's how the results came out:
Cole Walker-16:02
Cole Driver 17:06
Ethan McIntyre 17:24
James Conway 18:00
James Hoopman 18:27
This wasn't quite what I was expecting from this squad, as this White Clay Creek course isn't super fast, but by no means is it slow. As I said earlier, if Conway can get healthy and get back up towards Walker, this team has a shot at making out of the district. Until then, they aren't primed to even be top 10. Walker is looking extremely solid. As the District one picture continues to heat up with guys like McComb making some noise, Walker should not be ignored in that conversation.
Briarwood Invitational-
In the big premier meet of the weekend, we saw some exciting stuff! Lets hop straight to the team champions in LaSalle. I said they needed to come out and really make a statement, and they did. Dropping 44 points on this field in their season opener to win by 50 points was more than enough. You even got the vibe from their post race interview that this is not the team at full strength. From the sounds of things, this was just their rust-buster. If a rust-buster is dominating a championship caliber field, they're in good shape. I think as of right now, the back half of NA's scoring 5 is a little too far back, so despite it being extremely close, I lean towards LaSalle right now. Twomey will have to be a little stronger up front for them to clinch it, but like I said earlier, its going to be extremely close. The surprise of the weekend was the boys from Great Valley. On paper, I had West Chester East beating them, CB East beating them, and Twin Valley pulling it close. While GV may have lost to LaSalle by 50 points, they beat the rest of the PA field by 50 points themselves! Taking down WCE and CB East by this kind of margin gives me the confidence to say that this team is now one of the favorites to get out of District 1. I don't think they're at Dwest's level quite yet, but this team is right up there at the top, and I think a state spot is their's to lose. I was worried about their lack of front running, but Seth Hoffritz gave the team a huge lift up front and might be a top 15-20 guy in the district right now. Behind GV, things have only gotten more complicated. WCE took down CB East by a good 30 points, without Lewin having a great day. As for now, I have CB East on the outside looking in, and WCE is right on the cusp. While its still early season, I think if Lewin runs like himself in a big race like districts, WC East will still find themselves advancing to states. I was hoping for a better performance from Twin Valley as well, but I think they're better than the day they had on Saturday. As we'll discuss in just a second, I think District 3 is the craziest one to watch right now team-wise, so its very hard to gauge just where Twin Valley falls right now. Servis and Schlegel are great runners, and they'll need to step up to get this team to Hershey. Noah Demis looked great in this race. I think he went out a little hard and paid the price for it, but he is absolutely a contender for a state medal this fall.
Ben Bloser Bulldog Invite- Big Spring-
Well damn District 3, you're crazy. We'd seen most of these teams by now, except, of course, the top two finishing teams in the meet. Cedar Crest and Hempfield made their debuts, and finished 1-2 in the deep meet at Big Spring. Cedar Crest came out with a surprisingly clear victory, whereas 4 points separated 2nd through 5th! This Cedar Crest team is extremely dangerous. They rode to victory off of putting 3 in the top 15, 1 of which is a sophomore Tommy Bildheiser, and the other two are freshmen! These were the top two freshmen in the meet, and Bildheiser was the top sophomore of the meet. Despite a noticeable drop off to their 4th and 5th men, there is not a single senior in the scoring 5 for Cedar Crest. This team has endless potential with all this youth and we might finally have at least a semi-favorite out in District 3 now. It should be noted that although this youth is promising for Cedar Crest, its possible that the inexperience from this group could also be their downfall come the postseason. The other teams up in the mix were runners up Hempfield, Chambersburg, and Carlisle. I did think Carlisle was a little overrated coming into the season (Penntrack has them at the 6th in the state), but this is still a solid squad. Jack Wisner is an absolute beast and Casey Padgett is a formidable #2 man. I think Bryce Dunkelberger had an off day, as he is one of the last guys with experience from running when the Affolders were around. I think if he moves up more towards Padgett (which is very realistic) Carlisle takes this meet by a point or so. I think Carlisle and Cedar Crest are my first two choices for this district title right now, but Chambersburg has put together a string of solid meets, and Hempfield is one of the strongest programs in terms of consistency. Hempfield had the best #5 of the entire meet, and a very tight 43 second spread. I think if either Rittenhouse can step up as their #1, or if this pack can tighten up even more, Hempfield has the chance to sneak away with a district championship. But this will take a perfect race from this whole squad. Not a whole lot to be critical with in regards to Chambersburg, they just have to run a little bit better as a whole. They have a front runner in Trentin Overcash, and they've got decent depth, so there's no surprise as to why they've been hanging around the top of these meets. I think its going to take developing a strong #2 man for this team to breakthrough towards the top, but they can still very realistically make it to Hershey. Lastly, I was disappointed with Oxford. I still think they're better than they've been in the past two meets (even though they won LVC), but this doesn't do them a lot of good in the bigger picture. In an already crowded D1, its going to take near perfection, and more importantly, consistency from teams to make their case. Its obviously still very early, but this kind of performance won't get to Hershey. With that being said, I wouldn't say that if I didn't think they didn't have a shot at getting there.
That's all for now folks! Keep checking back for content! And remember, stay happy, stay healthy!
-The RunningHub
Bradford Invitational-
In no huge surprise here, Elk County Catholic came out and picked up a solid win over some decent teams in Bradford and Clarion Area, who surprised me with a runner up finish. ECC dominated this race though, taking 4 of the top 8 spots. Unfortunately, as has been the problem with many teams this fall, their lack of a 5th man really hurt them in this meet. For measure, their top 4 combined for just 19 of the team's 53 points. The remaining 34 came from the drop off at #5. While they won decently comfortably in this meet, Clarion and other teams like Cranberry that have much stronger depth can make things interesting for the District 9 race. A solid individual win for Ben Hoffman as he defends his title from a year ago. Despite running slightly slower this year, a win is still a win. I would've picked him to win the A race at R,W&B last week, so its good to see him bounce back after his 3rd place finish. As mentioned, Clarion is not a bad team. With 2 team spots out of D9 A, it will be interesting to see if a team structured like Clarion with a deep pack can handle ECC any differently come the postseason. Shaping up to be a fun one!
George School Invite-
No big shockers in this one either. Jeffrey Love defends his title in strong fashion, running over 10 seconds faster in his title defense this year. Some great races behind Love though. Two duos from Germantown Academy and Malvern Prep rounded out the top 5, highlighted prominently by their youth. Germantown Academy junior Robert DiDonato came up 6 seconds short of almost stealing the title from Love, and it was his XC debut! The GA sophomore ran 4:38 as a freshman last spring, and has seemingly decided to try his luck at XC. If he was 6 seconds off of a seasoned veteran in Love in his debut, he might just be the favorite for the Independent League State title. Not to be outdone though, freshman from Malvern Prep Zachary Brill made his debut in his first HS race and came away with a top 3 finish and a 16:46! Despite being a freshman, Brill is experienced, having run 2:12 and 4:49 as just a middle schooler. Having graduated some great runners in Borger and Lindgren this past year, the private school side of PA is seemingly whipping up its next great batch of talent. Collin Hess finishes 4th in this race with a respectable sub 17 performance, within 10 seconds of his freshman teammate. I still think Hess has the capability to be one of the top talents in the area and classification, after running 16:20 and 9:57 as a freshman last year. With Brill alongside him now, this could be a deadly duo. Lenape (NJ) blew the field away for the team title, but the finish for PA teams was exciting. GFS took 2nd in this meet, holding off Phoenixville by a mere point, 104-105. Despite putting no one in the top 12, GFS used a bunched up top 3 all in the top 20 to hold off Phoenixville. For Phoenixville, this is the 2nd week in a row they've come up just short of being the top PA team. I still like Puleo as an individual though and I think he has stock as a possible state qualifier out of D1.
Altoona Mt. Lion XC Invitational-
As expected, without State College in the picture, Mifflin County was able to steamroll their way to victory, scoring just 48 points, and winning by double that amount. I think despite the craziness that will ensue out in District 1 and District 3, come the postseason, Mifflin County might be the best team statewide that sits home the weekend of Hershey. Having just one team come out of D6 has always been brutal, whether it be State College struggling to get past Wade Endress and Altoona 6 years ago or so, or whether it be Mifflin County now. I'm not completely ruling them out from having a shot at upsetting State College, but obviously they are far from favored, and will have to tighten up their spread if they want any shot at stunning the Little Lions. I have to give a shoutout to Ian Zimmerman for the individual victory though. Taking down the Mifflin County duo of Macknair and Harris, this was a huge breakthrough race for him. After winning a weak district last year as just a freshman, is this Zimmerman's statement race that puts him in contention for a high medal finish at states?
Boardman Spartan Invitational-
Before we hop onto the inevitable NA discussion, lets highlight the other PA performances here. Jonah Powell made his debut this weekend, and he did not disappoint. Before you look at times, know that Boardman is a merciless course, and that this was truly, an elite field. Powell came away with a 5th place finish overall, and notably was 15-16 seconds off of Dan McGoey (who we will touch on soon). Powell is the top returner in the state in AA, and blazed to stunning times of 4:18/1:55 this past spring. I'd like to call Powell the favorite for now, but he has a hell of a field behind him. Between Price, the Harbor Creek boys, the Greensburg Salem boys, and many others, a state title for Powell is far from certain, though this is an excellent start. Sticking to individuals, Josh Lewis just keeps getting better. He won the D3 race with a 16:11, which is arguably the most impressive PA performance of this weekend! Its crazy to think that Lewis just went out and had debatably a stronger race than McGoey, who is regarded by many as probably the 2nd best runner in the state right now. I feel foolish, having spent so much time talking about the A race between Miller, Healey, and Sands, but Lewis may have just jumped all of them with this race and thrust himself into the driver seat for the A title. Edit: Thanks to our commenter for clarifying that Lewis is indeed AA, not A. Powell versus Lewis will still be an absolute blast. Now we can talk about NA. I don't want to talk too much about the absence of Kinne, as I'm sure it was just a rest weekend for him, but it makes me wonder if he's even on the same plan as the rest of the team. Rest assured though, I'm sure the Tigers have it all under control. Obviously this was a fantastic race from McGoey, who continues to cement himself behind Kinne for a possible 1-2 finish at states. I'm looking for the NA pack to be just a hair closer to McGoey though. To my best estimates, I would say this course runs 10-15 seconds slower than Briarwood (both are unforgiving courses). With that conversion, the packs are essentially dead even, and it comes out to NA having an advantage with the duo up front. Yet, this was LaSalle's debut, whereas NA has been racing and experienced. I think this battle is going to be closer than people even think, and I'm not quite sure I'm ready to put Downingtown West up with these two teams anymore. This is going to be fun folks.
Bulldog Invitational (Rose Tree)-
As predicted, we saw a "B" team of sorts out of Dwest this weekend. Methacton put on a solid performance with Garrett Campbell picking up the win and Matt Varghese picking up 3rd. Methacton isn't quite on the list of teams I have fighting for a SQ spot out of District 1, but this is a solid win nonetheless, and we should at least keep an eye on them moving forward. This is a nice win for Campbell, who barely broke 17 last year, and now opens his season with a 17:11 win. Varghese just missed out on a state spot last year in XC, running 16:27. He seems to be still finding his early season form, but he is a solid XC runner who has the possibility to find himself in the top 30 or so come districts. A BIG sleeper to keep an eye on here is Ethan Zeh of Radnor. He ran 16:39 last year, yet ran a minute faster at Bulldog this year compared to last. The 1:54/4:27 speedster clearly benefits from a faster course like Lehigh, so don't be surprised if this kid comes from nowhere and steals a state spot come districts.
Commodore Perry Invitational-
A solid win for Harbor Creek as this team's top 5 starts to find its form. This team isn't built to be a powerhouse, but I wouldn't completely rule them out of contention out of AA. There is the possibility for Weber and Starvaggi to give HC two of the top 5 at states, and I liked what I saw out of their #3 and #4 in this race. Nolan Weber and Caleb Mandel are starting to close that gap just a little bit, but that spread is crucial. And while the #5 man is back a little far, Max Dailey is just a freshman. Anytime you have such a young piece in your scoring 5, big jumps are not just possible, but sometimes likely. Obviously this team has some work to do, but the potential is there for this team to come together. Cole Frazier of Hickory continues his hot start to his season. He has consistently been running 30-40 seconds faster in all of his meets this year, and is looking like a guaranteed medal threat.
Kiski Area Cross Country Invitational-
Another week, another win for Mount Lebanon. It looks like some of the varsity guys got to rest, while Patrick Anderson picks up another individual win on the season. As mentioned by one of our readers (much appreciated for the info), Fox Chapel sat out Fitch, and thus we missed out on a opportunity for a great individual race. Having mentioned them both already this year, we saw more solid races out of Greater Latrobe's Justin Carlson, and Indiana Area's Joey Budjos.
White Clay Creek Classic-
We finally got some 5k's out of Unionville this weekend. Despite most of the squad running in different races, here's how the results came out:
Cole Walker-16:02
Cole Driver 17:06
Ethan McIntyre 17:24
James Conway 18:00
James Hoopman 18:27
This wasn't quite what I was expecting from this squad, as this White Clay Creek course isn't super fast, but by no means is it slow. As I said earlier, if Conway can get healthy and get back up towards Walker, this team has a shot at making out of the district. Until then, they aren't primed to even be top 10. Walker is looking extremely solid. As the District one picture continues to heat up with guys like McComb making some noise, Walker should not be ignored in that conversation.
Briarwood Invitational-
In the big premier meet of the weekend, we saw some exciting stuff! Lets hop straight to the team champions in LaSalle. I said they needed to come out and really make a statement, and they did. Dropping 44 points on this field in their season opener to win by 50 points was more than enough. You even got the vibe from their post race interview that this is not the team at full strength. From the sounds of things, this was just their rust-buster. If a rust-buster is dominating a championship caliber field, they're in good shape. I think as of right now, the back half of NA's scoring 5 is a little too far back, so despite it being extremely close, I lean towards LaSalle right now. Twomey will have to be a little stronger up front for them to clinch it, but like I said earlier, its going to be extremely close. The surprise of the weekend was the boys from Great Valley. On paper, I had West Chester East beating them, CB East beating them, and Twin Valley pulling it close. While GV may have lost to LaSalle by 50 points, they beat the rest of the PA field by 50 points themselves! Taking down WCE and CB East by this kind of margin gives me the confidence to say that this team is now one of the favorites to get out of District 1. I don't think they're at Dwest's level quite yet, but this team is right up there at the top, and I think a state spot is their's to lose. I was worried about their lack of front running, but Seth Hoffritz gave the team a huge lift up front and might be a top 15-20 guy in the district right now. Behind GV, things have only gotten more complicated. WCE took down CB East by a good 30 points, without Lewin having a great day. As for now, I have CB East on the outside looking in, and WCE is right on the cusp. While its still early season, I think if Lewin runs like himself in a big race like districts, WC East will still find themselves advancing to states. I was hoping for a better performance from Twin Valley as well, but I think they're better than the day they had on Saturday. As we'll discuss in just a second, I think District 3 is the craziest one to watch right now team-wise, so its very hard to gauge just where Twin Valley falls right now. Servis and Schlegel are great runners, and they'll need to step up to get this team to Hershey. Noah Demis looked great in this race. I think he went out a little hard and paid the price for it, but he is absolutely a contender for a state medal this fall.
Ben Bloser Bulldog Invite- Big Spring-
Well damn District 3, you're crazy. We'd seen most of these teams by now, except, of course, the top two finishing teams in the meet. Cedar Crest and Hempfield made their debuts, and finished 1-2 in the deep meet at Big Spring. Cedar Crest came out with a surprisingly clear victory, whereas 4 points separated 2nd through 5th! This Cedar Crest team is extremely dangerous. They rode to victory off of putting 3 in the top 15, 1 of which is a sophomore Tommy Bildheiser, and the other two are freshmen! These were the top two freshmen in the meet, and Bildheiser was the top sophomore of the meet. Despite a noticeable drop off to their 4th and 5th men, there is not a single senior in the scoring 5 for Cedar Crest. This team has endless potential with all this youth and we might finally have at least a semi-favorite out in District 3 now. It should be noted that although this youth is promising for Cedar Crest, its possible that the inexperience from this group could also be their downfall come the postseason. The other teams up in the mix were runners up Hempfield, Chambersburg, and Carlisle. I did think Carlisle was a little overrated coming into the season (Penntrack has them at the 6th in the state), but this is still a solid squad. Jack Wisner is an absolute beast and Casey Padgett is a formidable #2 man. I think Bryce Dunkelberger had an off day, as he is one of the last guys with experience from running when the Affolders were around. I think if he moves up more towards Padgett (which is very realistic) Carlisle takes this meet by a point or so. I think Carlisle and Cedar Crest are my first two choices for this district title right now, but Chambersburg has put together a string of solid meets, and Hempfield is one of the strongest programs in terms of consistency. Hempfield had the best #5 of the entire meet, and a very tight 43 second spread. I think if either Rittenhouse can step up as their #1, or if this pack can tighten up even more, Hempfield has the chance to sneak away with a district championship. But this will take a perfect race from this whole squad. Not a whole lot to be critical with in regards to Chambersburg, they just have to run a little bit better as a whole. They have a front runner in Trentin Overcash, and they've got decent depth, so there's no surprise as to why they've been hanging around the top of these meets. I think its going to take developing a strong #2 man for this team to breakthrough towards the top, but they can still very realistically make it to Hershey. Lastly, I was disappointed with Oxford. I still think they're better than they've been in the past two meets (even though they won LVC), but this doesn't do them a lot of good in the bigger picture. In an already crowded D1, its going to take near perfection, and more importantly, consistency from teams to make their case. Its obviously still very early, but this kind of performance won't get to Hershey. With that being said, I wouldn't say that if I didn't think they didn't have a shot at getting there.
That's all for now folks! Keep checking back for content! And remember, stay happy, stay healthy!
-The RunningHub
Thursday, September 13, 2018
Weeknd #3 Quick Preview
Hard to believe we're already on our 3rd weekend of XC folks! With a lot of meets this weekend as well as a lot of team rankings to work on, I'm going to try and keep this week's preview a little more terse and to the point. Always time for more in-depth analysis during the recaps!
White Clay Creek Classic-
Another grade by grade meet, but at least its a 5k. Keep an eye on what the boys from Unionville drop in their 5k debut on the season.
23rd Annual Ben Bloser Bulldog XC Invite-
Always exciting when we get runners back on the Big Spring course! Hard to give a ton of predictions with a limited amount of teams listed on penntrack's attendance, but what I'm looking at here is a big D3 clash with Oxford hopping in. Hopefully this helps settle some of the madness out in District 3, and also give us a better idea of where Oxford stands against some stronger competition.
66th Annual George School Invite-
Big private school field here, with some PIAA schools hopping in as well as some out of state teams. Team wise, it will be interesting to see what GFS puts out, having gradually lost a lot of their top guys over the past two years. I picked wrong on them last week, but watch out for Phoenixville in this race. With some racing under their belt now, I'll be interested to see how they stack up against the private school talent from eastern PA. Individually, hometown George School senior Jeffrey Love will look to pick up his first win of the season after losing to Miller last week. However, watch out for a big sleeper in Collin Hess from Malvern Prep. The 16:20 freshman ran beautifully under the shadow of Peter Borger, and now has his own chance to step up and steal the spotlight.
Altoona Mt. Lion XC Invitational-
Big contingent of D6 teams out in Altoona. With State College seemingly taking the weekend off, look for Mifflin County to come through and dominate this field both as a team and individually.
Bradford Invitational-
Should be a good matchup between Elk County Catholic, Cathedral Prep, and Bradford. ECC has the defending champ in Ben Hoffman, and I think they walk away with a win from this meet as well.
Briarwood Invitational-
With no big meet out west this weekend, this is the premier meet to watch across the state. The championship section is headlined by the returning state champs LaSalle making their debut. I fully expect them to win this race, but how much they dominate the field by will give me a better idea as to just how good they are going to be. Behind LaSalle is where the real dogfight of the weekend will be. Alongside some seemingly very good out of state teams, the rest of the field looks like this: Twin Valley, West Chester East, Great Valley, North Penn. We have four teams here who are all legitimate threats to make it to Hershey. This should help clean up the D1 picture just a little more, while Twin Valley will look to assert themselves as a possible favorite out of D3 if they can pick up a big 2nd place finish here. Great Valley will have to run very well and get someone close to the front if they want to take down Lewin and the WC East squad. North Penn is a question mark. They'll be making their invitational debut, what do they have in store for us? Individually, look for Twomey and frankly half the LaSalle team to try and take down Josh Lewin and some solid out of state talent.
Unfortunately, CB East has opted to run in the Challenge race. I think they could've helped make this one of the meets of the year if they hopped in to the Championship section. Nonetheless, look for CB East to dominate the race, while Jason Cornelison will be favored for the individual title.
Bulldog Invitational- Rose Tree-
Decent contingent of D1 teams coming out to Rose Tree Media park this year. While Dwest is entered, I wouldn't be surprised if they sent out some form of a "B" team. A big question mark here is Shanahan. I can't imagine Hoey will run, but aside from that, what pieces does this team have? Aside from the graduation of Hoey, they lost Shultz to Loudon Valley, and a big piece in Jon McGrory graduated. Very interested to see what Shanahan can do this weekend. Sleeper teams to watch are Methacton and St. Joes Prep. Individually, look for Matt Varghese to go for the win.
Gingerbread/Saucony Kiski Area XC Invitational-
In western PA's biggest meet of the weekend, expect Mount Lebanon to go out and pick up a decent sized victory. There should be a fun battle behind them, with teams like Indiana Area and Fox Chapel duking it out. Individually though, we should theoretically get another great battle between Patrick Anderson and Christian Fitch.
White Clay Creek Classic-
Another grade by grade meet, but at least its a 5k. Keep an eye on what the boys from Unionville drop in their 5k debut on the season.
23rd Annual Ben Bloser Bulldog XC Invite-
Always exciting when we get runners back on the Big Spring course! Hard to give a ton of predictions with a limited amount of teams listed on penntrack's attendance, but what I'm looking at here is a big D3 clash with Oxford hopping in. Hopefully this helps settle some of the madness out in District 3, and also give us a better idea of where Oxford stands against some stronger competition.
66th Annual George School Invite-
Big private school field here, with some PIAA schools hopping in as well as some out of state teams. Team wise, it will be interesting to see what GFS puts out, having gradually lost a lot of their top guys over the past two years. I picked wrong on them last week, but watch out for Phoenixville in this race. With some racing under their belt now, I'll be interested to see how they stack up against the private school talent from eastern PA. Individually, hometown George School senior Jeffrey Love will look to pick up his first win of the season after losing to Miller last week. However, watch out for a big sleeper in Collin Hess from Malvern Prep. The 16:20 freshman ran beautifully under the shadow of Peter Borger, and now has his own chance to step up and steal the spotlight.
Altoona Mt. Lion XC Invitational-
Big contingent of D6 teams out in Altoona. With State College seemingly taking the weekend off, look for Mifflin County to come through and dominate this field both as a team and individually.
Bradford Invitational-
Should be a good matchup between Elk County Catholic, Cathedral Prep, and Bradford. ECC has the defending champ in Ben Hoffman, and I think they walk away with a win from this meet as well.
Briarwood Invitational-
With no big meet out west this weekend, this is the premier meet to watch across the state. The championship section is headlined by the returning state champs LaSalle making their debut. I fully expect them to win this race, but how much they dominate the field by will give me a better idea as to just how good they are going to be. Behind LaSalle is where the real dogfight of the weekend will be. Alongside some seemingly very good out of state teams, the rest of the field looks like this: Twin Valley, West Chester East, Great Valley, North Penn. We have four teams here who are all legitimate threats to make it to Hershey. This should help clean up the D1 picture just a little more, while Twin Valley will look to assert themselves as a possible favorite out of D3 if they can pick up a big 2nd place finish here. Great Valley will have to run very well and get someone close to the front if they want to take down Lewin and the WC East squad. North Penn is a question mark. They'll be making their invitational debut, what do they have in store for us? Individually, look for Twomey and frankly half the LaSalle team to try and take down Josh Lewin and some solid out of state talent.
Unfortunately, CB East has opted to run in the Challenge race. I think they could've helped make this one of the meets of the year if they hopped in to the Championship section. Nonetheless, look for CB East to dominate the race, while Jason Cornelison will be favored for the individual title.
Bulldog Invitational- Rose Tree-
Decent contingent of D1 teams coming out to Rose Tree Media park this year. While Dwest is entered, I wouldn't be surprised if they sent out some form of a "B" team. A big question mark here is Shanahan. I can't imagine Hoey will run, but aside from that, what pieces does this team have? Aside from the graduation of Hoey, they lost Shultz to Loudon Valley, and a big piece in Jon McGrory graduated. Very interested to see what Shanahan can do this weekend. Sleeper teams to watch are Methacton and St. Joes Prep. Individually, look for Matt Varghese to go for the win.
Gingerbread/Saucony Kiski Area XC Invitational-
In western PA's biggest meet of the weekend, expect Mount Lebanon to go out and pick up a decent sized victory. There should be a fun battle behind them, with teams like Indiana Area and Fox Chapel duking it out. Individually though, we should theoretically get another great battle between Patrick Anderson and Christian Fitch.
District 11 Team Rankings
Lets take a closer look at how the team race will shape up this fall in District 11!
D11 A: (SQ Spots: 1)
1- Moravian Academy
I was ready to write another basic paragraph about how Notre Dame ES was poised to repeat for their title because they had the best group of returners. However, without looking great on paper, Moravian Academy showed up at the Lions Invitational and absolutely torched the defending champs, beating them by nearly 200 points. They averaged 19:38, which, for an early season small school, is not a bad performance. There are many other schools, like Schuylkill Haven, Shenandoah Valley, and Marian Catholic that will make this team race interesting, but I felt obliged to slide Moravian into the lone state spot right now.
D11 AA: (SQ Spots: 2)
1- Bangor Area
Similar to the A field, we got a great preview of the district matchups in AA at the Lions Invitational. Those results are what allowed Bangor to snag the top spot in the rankings, winning over the next AA team in D11 by over 10 points. Bangor has a great duo in Marino Bubba and Morgan O'Brien that I think is going to be very hard to beat from a team perspective if Bangor can tighten up their spread. The drop off to their 3-4-5 is their biggest weakness, and if any of those 3 see a jump, Bangor can seal up this district title.
2-Jim Thorpe
The team that fell 12 points short of Bangor still finds themselves slotted in the 2nd state spot for now. Jim Thorpe used a much more balanced attack to their racing, utilizing a spread that was half the size of Bangor's. I think Jim Thorpe has a group that can go toe to toe for the district championship, but I feel that until they can have any sort of front runner to counteract Bubba and O'Brien, I think Jim Thorpe will struggle to secure a district championship.
3-Blue Mountain
The first team out of the state spots for now, is Blue Mountain. However, that could change very quickly. They have an excellent runner up front in Kevin Haas that was able to break up the Bangor duo, and while the BM boys fell short at Lions, they are the best returning team on paper. I think if Coltin Albitz, the team's clear cut #2, can slowly find himself moving up closer and closer to Haas up front, this team will be able to take down Bangor. Both teams are structured very similarly, and it will be a battle of the depth (or lack thereof) to see how this district race shapes up. This will be an exciting one that I think leaves one pretty solid team home from Hershey.
D11 AAA (SQ Spots:2)
1- Parkland
While I think this will be one of the stronger years for the district in recent memory, I still feel comfortable about slotting Parkland in as the clear favorites. They looked incredibly solid at PTXC, and were the top PA team in a very, very talented field. I think Williamson is a medal threat this year, and Bower is looking like a great #2 man. I think this is a top 5 team in AAA right now. As good as they are, I wouldn't say their district title is completely safe, but they are the runaway favorites as of now.
2- Easton
While Northampton times are known for being very fast, its hard not to deny that Easton's performance was impressive. Finishing just off of CB East for the team title, Easton has a lot to be excited about (though it should be noted that Parkland dismantled CB East at PTXC). Ozgar and Cardone look like they could at least hang with Bower if they are looking to truly have a shot at Parkland. Throw in sophomore Trey Rhinehart, and Easton might have a top 3 that can take Parkland. Easton remains solid through 4 with the younger Cardone brother, but a lack of a 5th man is where they will struggle mightily against a top tier program like Parkland. As long as their top guys can keep themselves at the front of races, it should be enough for the Easton boys to get out of this semi-crowded district.
3- Liberty
We've already discussed how many A and AA teams represented D11 at the Lion's Invitational. Well, AAA Liberty showed up and handily defeated the entirety of the field. Putting 3 in the top 10 and 5 in the top 31, Liberty delivered a performance that was strong enough to at least put their name on the board for possible qualifiers. Having run on a slower course, with Easton dropping blazing times on the Northampton course, the teams may not look comparable, but this is not a team to be ignored. It's a long season, and each runner in Liberty's scoring five has a decent individual resume. There was something about Liberty's win that I felt deserved some recognition, so for now, they sit one team away from a state qualifying position.
4- Stroudsburg
On paper, this team is as good as any in the district based off of returners. However, as many of us know, in this sport, that means nothing until we see results. However, I felt compelled to keep Stroudsburg in this top tier of teams. Resembling Easton, Stroudsburg found themselves towards the top of the Northampton meet through a strong top 3, and then a drop off to a distant 4th and 5th men. Truthfully, they hung right with Easton, but their top 3 just came up a little short of the top 10 finishes that Easton was able to deliver, and that was where they fell off. I think on any given day, Stroudsburg could have a shot at beating Easton, but I think in general, they have some improvements to make. From what I've seen, it will take a perfect performance from this squad to beat Liberty and Easton and grab a state qualifier, which is why they sit back in 4th. However, I don't think its impossible, which is why I still kept them included in this list.
D11 A: (SQ Spots: 1)
1- Moravian Academy
I was ready to write another basic paragraph about how Notre Dame ES was poised to repeat for their title because they had the best group of returners. However, without looking great on paper, Moravian Academy showed up at the Lions Invitational and absolutely torched the defending champs, beating them by nearly 200 points. They averaged 19:38, which, for an early season small school, is not a bad performance. There are many other schools, like Schuylkill Haven, Shenandoah Valley, and Marian Catholic that will make this team race interesting, but I felt obliged to slide Moravian into the lone state spot right now.
D11 AA: (SQ Spots: 2)
1- Bangor Area
Similar to the A field, we got a great preview of the district matchups in AA at the Lions Invitational. Those results are what allowed Bangor to snag the top spot in the rankings, winning over the next AA team in D11 by over 10 points. Bangor has a great duo in Marino Bubba and Morgan O'Brien that I think is going to be very hard to beat from a team perspective if Bangor can tighten up their spread. The drop off to their 3-4-5 is their biggest weakness, and if any of those 3 see a jump, Bangor can seal up this district title.
2-Jim Thorpe
The team that fell 12 points short of Bangor still finds themselves slotted in the 2nd state spot for now. Jim Thorpe used a much more balanced attack to their racing, utilizing a spread that was half the size of Bangor's. I think Jim Thorpe has a group that can go toe to toe for the district championship, but I feel that until they can have any sort of front runner to counteract Bubba and O'Brien, I think Jim Thorpe will struggle to secure a district championship.
3-Blue Mountain
The first team out of the state spots for now, is Blue Mountain. However, that could change very quickly. They have an excellent runner up front in Kevin Haas that was able to break up the Bangor duo, and while the BM boys fell short at Lions, they are the best returning team on paper. I think if Coltin Albitz, the team's clear cut #2, can slowly find himself moving up closer and closer to Haas up front, this team will be able to take down Bangor. Both teams are structured very similarly, and it will be a battle of the depth (or lack thereof) to see how this district race shapes up. This will be an exciting one that I think leaves one pretty solid team home from Hershey.
D11 AAA (SQ Spots:2)
1- Parkland
While I think this will be one of the stronger years for the district in recent memory, I still feel comfortable about slotting Parkland in as the clear favorites. They looked incredibly solid at PTXC, and were the top PA team in a very, very talented field. I think Williamson is a medal threat this year, and Bower is looking like a great #2 man. I think this is a top 5 team in AAA right now. As good as they are, I wouldn't say their district title is completely safe, but they are the runaway favorites as of now.
2- Easton
While Northampton times are known for being very fast, its hard not to deny that Easton's performance was impressive. Finishing just off of CB East for the team title, Easton has a lot to be excited about (though it should be noted that Parkland dismantled CB East at PTXC). Ozgar and Cardone look like they could at least hang with Bower if they are looking to truly have a shot at Parkland. Throw in sophomore Trey Rhinehart, and Easton might have a top 3 that can take Parkland. Easton remains solid through 4 with the younger Cardone brother, but a lack of a 5th man is where they will struggle mightily against a top tier program like Parkland. As long as their top guys can keep themselves at the front of races, it should be enough for the Easton boys to get out of this semi-crowded district.
3- Liberty
We've already discussed how many A and AA teams represented D11 at the Lion's Invitational. Well, AAA Liberty showed up and handily defeated the entirety of the field. Putting 3 in the top 10 and 5 in the top 31, Liberty delivered a performance that was strong enough to at least put their name on the board for possible qualifiers. Having run on a slower course, with Easton dropping blazing times on the Northampton course, the teams may not look comparable, but this is not a team to be ignored. It's a long season, and each runner in Liberty's scoring five has a decent individual resume. There was something about Liberty's win that I felt deserved some recognition, so for now, they sit one team away from a state qualifying position.
4- Stroudsburg
On paper, this team is as good as any in the district based off of returners. However, as many of us know, in this sport, that means nothing until we see results. However, I felt compelled to keep Stroudsburg in this top tier of teams. Resembling Easton, Stroudsburg found themselves towards the top of the Northampton meet through a strong top 3, and then a drop off to a distant 4th and 5th men. Truthfully, they hung right with Easton, but their top 3 just came up a little short of the top 10 finishes that Easton was able to deliver, and that was where they fell off. I think on any given day, Stroudsburg could have a shot at beating Easton, but I think in general, they have some improvements to make. From what I've seen, it will take a perfect performance from this squad to beat Liberty and Easton and grab a state qualifier, which is why they sit back in 4th. However, I don't think its impossible, which is why I still kept them included in this list.
Wednesday, September 12, 2018
Weeknd Recap #2 (9/8-9/9) PART TWO
As promised, here is the second half of our weekend recap. Enjoy!
LVC Dutchmen Invitational-
A common theme across this weekend, this meet came down to 2 teams blowing away the field. In this particular case, Oxford area found themselves taking the title, winning over Palmyra by 10 points. In a constantly growing list of contenders, Oxford throws their name in the hat for one the 6 spots out of District one. This team caught some peoples' eyes after they shined with their youth last year, most notably winning the Championship section of the Carlisle Invite. While Evan Campbell was the team's #1 in this race, the squad is very versatile. In a handful of races last year, Gavin Fitzgerald was the team's top guy as just a freshman, although he didn't have a great race this weekend. The team struggled heavily last year at districts without a solid #5, however, from the looks of things, they seem to have addressed that with a 3rd Campbell! Mitchell Campbell cut off the scoring at 17:32 and helped secure the team victory. This team has all the right pieces to get out of Lehigh and advance to Hershey, however, I seem to be saying that for many teams, so we will have to see...
Still lots to be happy about if you're Palmyra. You hold your own against one of the better teams in District one, and as I mentioned with Twin Valley in the Centaur recap, District 3 AAA is very wide open this year. Palmyra would have to pull some pretty decent upsets to find themselves in a state spot, but this is a great start. Sophomore Jakolby Fackler (dope name) is asserting himself as a threat to the entire district with a stunning victory. The Palmyra sophomore ran 9:46 as just a freshman, so remember that name moving forward (like I said, its a cool name, so it shouldn't be that hard).
Mill Street Run-
In my RW&B recap, I mentioned how exciting it would be to see a WT versus Jenkintown showdown at states. Well with both teams' performances this weekend, it is certainly shaping up to be interesting. Jenkintown has completely vamped up its talent from last year. Whereas last year they were partially carried by the duo of Miller and Jackson, this looks like a much more complete squad. Although the times are fast because its a rare road race, this team is strong through 5 with a decent level of backend depth. With two pairs of brothers, the Millers and Geers, alongside Pat Wagner, this squad seems locked in to do more than just win a district title. Jack Miller is an absolute beast who will have to deal with the likes of Healey and a very strong Colton Sands, but this kid is a gamer who has loads of experience. As for outside of Jenkintown, Jeffrey Love had a great race, and is also someone who heads into their senior year with loads of experience. Pennsbury looked decent, but will have to make some adjustments and show some improvement to hop into the crowded mix at the front of District one AAA.
Unionville Two mile Bash:
Although the scoring in this meet is very untraditional, the grade-by-grade results have Dwest and Unionville taking the top two spots, with Henderson and Haverford rounding out the top 4. If anything, this meet only raises more questions rather than answer any. These four squads round out the roughly 11 or so schools that I think truly have a shot at the 6 spots out of D1. Cole Walker is a big sleeper for the district title after snagging a medal in the 3200 last spring, and he proved that by dropping the fastest time of the day, ahead of all of Dwest's contingent. Overall, I think D1 is Dwest's for the taking. I haven't seen a strong enough performance from any other squad for me to believe that they can be beaten. Personally, I think Unionville is the biggest hit or miss in this 50+ team district. They return two XC state qualifiers from last year in Walker and Cole Driver, as well as super sophomore Ethan McIntyre who won the sophomore race at this meet. However, the big question for me is this team's depth. This trio is incredibly strong, but James Conway is where the equation all comes together. Conway, now a senior, was a 16:07 sophomore state qualifier back in 2016. After dealing with injury problems last fall and some sparse racing in the spring, there will be huge question marks surrounding his ability to perform. If, and only if, Conway can find his old form and rejoin his teammates at the front of the district, Unionville will have a shot at the district title and Dwest. If not, I think it will be tough for this team to find itself in one of the top 6 spots come late October at Lehigh. Henderson and Haverford are two historically great programs who both hold the pedigree and necessary coaching to help utilize the talent they have to push into states. Mike Donnelly of Haverford is a big individual sleeper as well.
Harry Groves Spiked Shoe Invitational- (Friday)
Before most of the weekend meets kicked off, PSU hosted a huge meet for high school and college athletes alike. There were two main takeaways from this meet. The first being that State College was able to defend its home turf with relative ease over both PA and out of state teams. Using an army of depth, SC had no problem packing up and riding a tight time spread to a 71 point victory. SC has asserted themselves as one of the best teams in the state and the clear favorite out of District 6. However, without a Milligan, Feffer, or Etter as a true low stick in bigger meets, I think the boys of State College will have trouble hanging with the top tier of teams in the state (top 5 or so) if they can't get a guy in the medals come November. Moving down in classifications, Colton Sands is something special. The sophomore is probably the best in his class by a decent amount as things stand. Despite not having much of a team, having fellow sophomore Brendan Colwell to compliment him and be a fellow state title contender makes Sands that much more dangerous. As good as Sands is, I think it will take something pretty special to beat Miller this fall, though if Sands continues to race as well as he is, that may become more and more realistic. Could Sands and Colwell become one of the greatest pair of sophomore teammates to come through PA?
PTXC 10-
Had to save the biggest for last. I think times were overall not too fast, so I tried to look at things more from strictly a performance against fellow competitors standpoint. If you told me that Christian McComb would have been PA's top finisher in this race, I probably wouldn't have believed you. But nonetheless, the Boyertown junior proved his win at Northampton was no fluke, and dropped an incredible 15:58 to lose only to the likes of some truly elite out of state competition. I wasn't entirely sold on McComb, but after this, he very well may be the newest favorite in a wide open individual race in District one. Without any stunning performances elsewhere, I think McComb has been an absolute beast, and most importantly, has been consistent. Its a long season, but Boyertown's junior has been lights out as of now. Behind him were our usual suspects in Tyler Wirth and Andrew Healey. Wirth was the favored PA runner in this race, but falling 6 seconds short of a true breakthrough race from McComb is nothing to be ignored. Wirth is debatably the most well rounded returner in the state, from his 1:56/4:14 track credentials to his top 5 finish at XC states last fall. If this 16:04 at PTXC was Wirth's rust buster, something tells me he'll be just fine. Although his name has been mentioned a lot, this is the first time we finally have a result from Healey. The Holy Cross junior has two state medals to his name already, finishing 4th in XC last fall (one spot behind Miller) and 3rd in the 3200 last spring. This is a great race for Healey and absolutely keeps him in the conversation for the A title alongside Miller and Sands. It probably would've taken something just a tad stronger for me to declare him the favorite, as one solid race from anyone of the trio could shift my thoughts. Healey has the best PR's across the board, and has proved to run well in the postseason, so despite what I've said about his fellow A counterparts, is the A state title Andrew Healey's to lose?
Parkland was the one team that really asserted themselves within their district this weekend. I predicted both this squad and Riley Williamson to run well, and both parts came to fruition. Williamson snuck into the top 15 overall, and helped pull Parkland nearly 80 points in front of the next PA team. Nicholas Bower helped give Parkland a nice 1-2 punch in the top 25, and the rest of the squad was able to tuck in the top 60 of scorers. Parkland has produced a solid squad year in and year out, and this might finally be the year they breakthrough near the top. I think this race puts Parkland at the top of D11 for now, though we can't forget Easton's solid race out at Northampton last week. Another district race shaping up to be exciting!
I was hoping for a stronger performance from CB East this weekend. I wanted to be able to put them as a 2nd team I felt comfortable about advancing through District 1, but they've only added to the mass mayhem. Endres ran well, but not great. Nothing bad to say about their performance as a whole, I just think they have a better day in them. A solid from Chambersburg also only adds to the quickly growing field of teams fighting for spots in District 3.
Thank you all for reading! Keep checking back as we will continue to release our district team rankings! (Although you guys are making it very hard to pick)
Stay happy, stay healthy
-The RunningHub
LVC Dutchmen Invitational-
A common theme across this weekend, this meet came down to 2 teams blowing away the field. In this particular case, Oxford area found themselves taking the title, winning over Palmyra by 10 points. In a constantly growing list of contenders, Oxford throws their name in the hat for one the 6 spots out of District one. This team caught some peoples' eyes after they shined with their youth last year, most notably winning the Championship section of the Carlisle Invite. While Evan Campbell was the team's #1 in this race, the squad is very versatile. In a handful of races last year, Gavin Fitzgerald was the team's top guy as just a freshman, although he didn't have a great race this weekend. The team struggled heavily last year at districts without a solid #5, however, from the looks of things, they seem to have addressed that with a 3rd Campbell! Mitchell Campbell cut off the scoring at 17:32 and helped secure the team victory. This team has all the right pieces to get out of Lehigh and advance to Hershey, however, I seem to be saying that for many teams, so we will have to see...
Still lots to be happy about if you're Palmyra. You hold your own against one of the better teams in District one, and as I mentioned with Twin Valley in the Centaur recap, District 3 AAA is very wide open this year. Palmyra would have to pull some pretty decent upsets to find themselves in a state spot, but this is a great start. Sophomore Jakolby Fackler (dope name) is asserting himself as a threat to the entire district with a stunning victory. The Palmyra sophomore ran 9:46 as just a freshman, so remember that name moving forward (like I said, its a cool name, so it shouldn't be that hard).
Mill Street Run-
In my RW&B recap, I mentioned how exciting it would be to see a WT versus Jenkintown showdown at states. Well with both teams' performances this weekend, it is certainly shaping up to be interesting. Jenkintown has completely vamped up its talent from last year. Whereas last year they were partially carried by the duo of Miller and Jackson, this looks like a much more complete squad. Although the times are fast because its a rare road race, this team is strong through 5 with a decent level of backend depth. With two pairs of brothers, the Millers and Geers, alongside Pat Wagner, this squad seems locked in to do more than just win a district title. Jack Miller is an absolute beast who will have to deal with the likes of Healey and a very strong Colton Sands, but this kid is a gamer who has loads of experience. As for outside of Jenkintown, Jeffrey Love had a great race, and is also someone who heads into their senior year with loads of experience. Pennsbury looked decent, but will have to make some adjustments and show some improvement to hop into the crowded mix at the front of District one AAA.
Unionville Two mile Bash:
Although the scoring in this meet is very untraditional, the grade-by-grade results have Dwest and Unionville taking the top two spots, with Henderson and Haverford rounding out the top 4. If anything, this meet only raises more questions rather than answer any. These four squads round out the roughly 11 or so schools that I think truly have a shot at the 6 spots out of D1. Cole Walker is a big sleeper for the district title after snagging a medal in the 3200 last spring, and he proved that by dropping the fastest time of the day, ahead of all of Dwest's contingent. Overall, I think D1 is Dwest's for the taking. I haven't seen a strong enough performance from any other squad for me to believe that they can be beaten. Personally, I think Unionville is the biggest hit or miss in this 50+ team district. They return two XC state qualifiers from last year in Walker and Cole Driver, as well as super sophomore Ethan McIntyre who won the sophomore race at this meet. However, the big question for me is this team's depth. This trio is incredibly strong, but James Conway is where the equation all comes together. Conway, now a senior, was a 16:07 sophomore state qualifier back in 2016. After dealing with injury problems last fall and some sparse racing in the spring, there will be huge question marks surrounding his ability to perform. If, and only if, Conway can find his old form and rejoin his teammates at the front of the district, Unionville will have a shot at the district title and Dwest. If not, I think it will be tough for this team to find itself in one of the top 6 spots come late October at Lehigh. Henderson and Haverford are two historically great programs who both hold the pedigree and necessary coaching to help utilize the talent they have to push into states. Mike Donnelly of Haverford is a big individual sleeper as well.
Harry Groves Spiked Shoe Invitational- (Friday)
Before most of the weekend meets kicked off, PSU hosted a huge meet for high school and college athletes alike. There were two main takeaways from this meet. The first being that State College was able to defend its home turf with relative ease over both PA and out of state teams. Using an army of depth, SC had no problem packing up and riding a tight time spread to a 71 point victory. SC has asserted themselves as one of the best teams in the state and the clear favorite out of District 6. However, without a Milligan, Feffer, or Etter as a true low stick in bigger meets, I think the boys of State College will have trouble hanging with the top tier of teams in the state (top 5 or so) if they can't get a guy in the medals come November. Moving down in classifications, Colton Sands is something special. The sophomore is probably the best in his class by a decent amount as things stand. Despite not having much of a team, having fellow sophomore Brendan Colwell to compliment him and be a fellow state title contender makes Sands that much more dangerous. As good as Sands is, I think it will take something pretty special to beat Miller this fall, though if Sands continues to race as well as he is, that may become more and more realistic. Could Sands and Colwell become one of the greatest pair of sophomore teammates to come through PA?
PTXC 10-
Had to save the biggest for last. I think times were overall not too fast, so I tried to look at things more from strictly a performance against fellow competitors standpoint. If you told me that Christian McComb would have been PA's top finisher in this race, I probably wouldn't have believed you. But nonetheless, the Boyertown junior proved his win at Northampton was no fluke, and dropped an incredible 15:58 to lose only to the likes of some truly elite out of state competition. I wasn't entirely sold on McComb, but after this, he very well may be the newest favorite in a wide open individual race in District one. Without any stunning performances elsewhere, I think McComb has been an absolute beast, and most importantly, has been consistent. Its a long season, but Boyertown's junior has been lights out as of now. Behind him were our usual suspects in Tyler Wirth and Andrew Healey. Wirth was the favored PA runner in this race, but falling 6 seconds short of a true breakthrough race from McComb is nothing to be ignored. Wirth is debatably the most well rounded returner in the state, from his 1:56/4:14 track credentials to his top 5 finish at XC states last fall. If this 16:04 at PTXC was Wirth's rust buster, something tells me he'll be just fine. Although his name has been mentioned a lot, this is the first time we finally have a result from Healey. The Holy Cross junior has two state medals to his name already, finishing 4th in XC last fall (one spot behind Miller) and 3rd in the 3200 last spring. This is a great race for Healey and absolutely keeps him in the conversation for the A title alongside Miller and Sands. It probably would've taken something just a tad stronger for me to declare him the favorite, as one solid race from anyone of the trio could shift my thoughts. Healey has the best PR's across the board, and has proved to run well in the postseason, so despite what I've said about his fellow A counterparts, is the A state title Andrew Healey's to lose?
Parkland was the one team that really asserted themselves within their district this weekend. I predicted both this squad and Riley Williamson to run well, and both parts came to fruition. Williamson snuck into the top 15 overall, and helped pull Parkland nearly 80 points in front of the next PA team. Nicholas Bower helped give Parkland a nice 1-2 punch in the top 25, and the rest of the squad was able to tuck in the top 60 of scorers. Parkland has produced a solid squad year in and year out, and this might finally be the year they breakthrough near the top. I think this race puts Parkland at the top of D11 for now, though we can't forget Easton's solid race out at Northampton last week. Another district race shaping up to be exciting!
I was hoping for a stronger performance from CB East this weekend. I wanted to be able to put them as a 2nd team I felt comfortable about advancing through District 1, but they've only added to the mass mayhem. Endres ran well, but not great. Nothing bad to say about their performance as a whole, I just think they have a better day in them. A solid from Chambersburg also only adds to the quickly growing field of teams fighting for spots in District 3.
Thank you all for reading! Keep checking back as we will continue to release our district team rankings! (Although you guys are making it very hard to pick)
Stay happy, stay healthy
-The RunningHub
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