D10 A: (SQ Spots:2)
1- Cochranton
The clear cut favorites out of D10, and one of the top 5 teams in A statewide, Cochranton is proving they are a force to be reckoned with this fall. Led by duo Noah Bernarding and Jac Cokley, this team has had some mixed results to kick off their 2018 fall campaign. They opened up with a win at the Hornet Harrier Invite, faltered a little bit at the Big Red Invite last week, but delivered a solid performance this past weekend at Commodore Perry. They were runners up to a very good AA Harbor Creek team, and were able to gap the rest of the field by over 20 points. They don't have the best spread, but often times in the A classification, schools are small, so having any depth at all is valued highly. Right now, I have this team power ranked at 4th in A right now, and should have no problem within their district.
2- West Middlesex
The other state spot out of District 10 is slated to go to West Middlesex. They're a very similar team to Cochranton, they just don't quite have the #2 punch that Jac Cokley serves for his squad. Luke Mantzell is a great leader for this team who will be challenging for the district title, and the Chlpka twins round out this team's top 3. Based off of how the other teams within the district look, as long as Mantzell can serve as the low stick he's expected to be, this team shouldn't have too much to worry about within the district other than Cochranton.
D10 AA: (SQ Spots:2)
1- General McLane
This district is going to be crazy! It was already crazy, but with the addition of North East, its truly going to be wild. This was a hard decision, but I felt that right now, despite not racing since opening weekend, General McLane just offers the most complete team through 5. The individual race between Price, Powell, and Lewis is going to be one for the ages, and should set up for an epic rematch at states. Either way, as long as Price can deliver a top 3 finish, with Dylan Throop and Erik Andrzejewski putting up top 10 finishes as well, GM will take the district crown and avoid the madness for the 2nd team spot. On top of their solid front running, they have the best #5 man in the field in Tim Fair. As I said, I think this is the most complete team on paper, and the title is theirs' to lose- for now.
2- North East
3- Grove City
This one was crazy hard to decide. Truthfully, it took me awhile to sort out 2nd through 4th. When it came down to it, I think this final spot could be decided a single point, and with Josh Lewis on the roster, I gave the edge to North East. Usually, two guys fighting for an individual title don't have a huge impact on scoring compared to their teammates, seeing that its really only a 1 point swing up front. However, the Powell versus Lewis race might be the deciding factor for the team qualifying. Both teams have run extremely well to kick off the year, and they match up nearly identically man by man, when comparing each team's top 5. With this one too close to call, I decided to go with my gut. I think Lewis is the man to beat for the title, so I have North East advancing to Hershey as of right now.
4- Harbor Creek
As I mentioned in our weekend recap, this Harbor Creek squad is one that is still coming together, and one that I truly believe has the raw talent to go toe to toe with any of teams listed above them. With the best 1-2 punch in the district, it will be up to Nolan Weber, Caleb Mandel, and most importantly, someone like freshman Max Dailey as a #5 to step up and solidify this team's scoring 5. I could see a 4th/5th finish for Starvaggi and Weber, so if they could realistically keep the rest of the scorers in the top 40 and keep the score around 100, it might be enough on a given day to slide into a state qualifying spot.
D10 AAA:
1- Cathedral Prep
Mixed with District 8 this year (according to sources on Penntrack), I'm not exactly sure how qualifying will work team-wise or individually wise. That being said, I'll just stick to the numbers I have access to. Cathedral Prep is actually a decent squad, led by Devan Bailey who ran 17:20 at R,W&B. With a full varsity squad sub 20, they will have a chance to go up against a Taylor Allderdice squad from D8.
I would have to disagree with the placement of North East above Grove City. Just comparing their times from Boardman, Grove City had an average time of 17:37 compared to North East's 17:59, so I don't think it's fair to say that they match up perfectly. The difference on the all important 5 runner was 18:13 to 19:09 - almost a full minute. Grove City is also still missing some guys that should be returning from their state team last year. I think the battle between them and General McLane for 1st place is the match up to be watching in this district.
ReplyDeleteThat’s fair. And I think you could easily make that switch. I tried to keep these a little more subjective versus being like a database and pumping out rankings based off of pr’s, seeing that North East was overall in a much slower field than the one that Grove City ran in. I think partially the reason why I decided to make that switch is because I had higher expectations for Grove City to open their season with, so I felt they deserved a bit of a drop. I absolutely agree that if this team is full strength, they could contend for the District title.
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