Sunday, September 16, 2018

Weekend Recap #3 (9/14-9/15)

Aaaaanndddd welcome back ladies and gentlemen to another installment of our weekend recaps! While there weren't many huge meets, we certainly had some fireworks, and we finally got some answers with our district team matchups. Its still very early in the season, but we're starting to see the state picture take its form. So lets hop into it!

Bradford Invitational-
In no huge surprise here, Elk County Catholic came out and picked up a solid win over some decent teams in Bradford and Clarion Area, who surprised me with a runner up finish. ECC dominated this race though, taking 4 of the top 8 spots. Unfortunately, as has been the problem with many teams this fall, their lack of a 5th man really hurt them in this meet. For measure, their top 4 combined for just 19 of the team's 53 points. The remaining 34 came from the drop off at #5. While they won decently comfortably in this meet, Clarion and other teams like Cranberry that have much stronger depth can make things interesting for the District 9 race. A solid individual win for Ben Hoffman as he defends his title from a year ago. Despite running slightly slower this year, a win is still a win. I would've picked him to win the A race at R,W&B last week, so its good to see him bounce back after his 3rd place finish. As mentioned, Clarion is not a bad team. With 2 team spots out of D9 A, it will be interesting to see if a team structured like Clarion with a deep pack can handle ECC any differently come the postseason. Shaping up to be a fun one!

George School Invite-
No big shockers in this one either. Jeffrey Love defends his title in strong fashion, running over 10 seconds faster in his title defense this year. Some great races behind Love though. Two duos from Germantown Academy and Malvern Prep rounded out the top 5, highlighted prominently by their youth. Germantown Academy junior Robert DiDonato came up 6 seconds short of almost stealing the title from Love, and it was his XC debut! The GA sophomore ran 4:38 as a freshman last spring, and has seemingly decided to try his luck at XC. If he was 6 seconds off of a seasoned veteran in Love in his debut, he might just be the favorite for the Independent League State title. Not to be outdone though, freshman from Malvern Prep Zachary Brill made his debut in his first HS race and came away with a top 3 finish and a 16:46! Despite being a freshman, Brill is experienced, having run 2:12 and 4:49 as just a middle schooler. Having graduated some great runners in Borger and Lindgren this past year, the private school side of PA is seemingly whipping up its next great batch of talent. Collin Hess finishes 4th in this race with a respectable sub 17 performance, within 10 seconds of his freshman teammate. I still think Hess has the capability to be one of the top talents in the area and classification, after running 16:20 and 9:57 as a freshman last year. With Brill alongside him now, this could be a deadly duo. Lenape (NJ) blew the field away for the team title, but the finish for PA teams was exciting. GFS took 2nd in this meet, holding off Phoenixville by a mere point, 104-105. Despite putting no one in the top 12, GFS used a bunched up top 3 all in the top 20 to hold off Phoenixville. For Phoenixville, this is the 2nd week in a row they've come up just short of being the top PA team. I still like Puleo as an individual though and I think he has stock as a possible state qualifier out of D1.

Altoona Mt. Lion XC Invitational-
As expected, without State College in the picture, Mifflin County was able to steamroll their way to victory, scoring just 48 points, and winning by double that amount. I think despite the craziness that will ensue out in District 1 and District 3, come the postseason, Mifflin County might be the best team statewide that sits home the weekend of Hershey. Having just one team come out of D6 has always been brutal, whether it be State College struggling to get past Wade Endress and Altoona 6 years ago or so, or whether it be Mifflin County now. I'm not completely ruling them out from having a shot at upsetting State College, but obviously they are far from favored, and will have to tighten up their spread if they want any shot at stunning the Little Lions. I have to give a shoutout to Ian Zimmerman for the individual victory though. Taking down the Mifflin County duo of Macknair and Harris, this was a huge breakthrough race for him. After winning a weak district last year as just a freshman, is this Zimmerman's statement race that puts him in contention for a high medal finish at states?

Boardman Spartan Invitational-
Before we hop onto the inevitable NA discussion, lets highlight the other PA performances here. Jonah Powell made his debut this weekend, and he did not disappoint. Before you look at times, know that Boardman is a merciless course, and that this was truly, an elite field. Powell came away with a 5th place finish overall, and notably was 15-16 seconds off of Dan McGoey (who we will touch on soon). Powell is the top returner in the state in AA, and blazed to stunning times of 4:18/1:55 this past spring. I'd like to call Powell the favorite for now, but he has a hell of a field behind him. Between Price, the Harbor Creek boys, the Greensburg Salem boys, and many others, a state title for Powell is far from certain, though this is an excellent start. Sticking to individuals, Josh Lewis just keeps getting better. He won the D3 race with a 16:11, which is arguably the most impressive PA performance of this weekend! Its crazy to think that Lewis just went out and had debatably a stronger race than McGoey, who is regarded by many as probably the 2nd best runner in the state right now. I feel foolish, having spent so much time talking about the A race between Miller, Healey, and Sands, but Lewis may have just jumped all of them with this race and thrust himself into the driver seat for the A title. Edit: Thanks to our commenter for clarifying that Lewis is indeed AA, not A. Powell versus Lewis will still be an absolute blast. Now we can talk about NA. I don't want to talk too much about the absence of Kinne, as I'm sure it was just a rest weekend for him, but it makes me wonder if he's even on the same plan as the rest of the team. Rest assured though, I'm sure the Tigers have it all under control. Obviously this was a fantastic race from McGoey, who continues to cement himself behind Kinne for a possible 1-2 finish at states. I'm looking for the NA pack to be just a hair closer to McGoey though. To my best estimates, I would say this course runs 10-15 seconds slower than Briarwood (both are unforgiving courses). With that conversion, the packs are essentially dead even, and it comes out to NA having an advantage with the duo up front. Yet, this was LaSalle's debut, whereas NA has been racing and experienced. I think this battle is going to be closer than people even think, and I'm not quite sure I'm ready to put Downingtown West up with these two teams anymore. This is going to be fun folks.

Bulldog Invitational (Rose Tree)-
As predicted, we saw a "B" team of sorts out of Dwest this weekend. Methacton put on a solid performance with Garrett Campbell picking up the win and Matt Varghese picking up 3rd. Methacton isn't quite on the list of teams I have fighting for a SQ spot out of District 1, but this is a solid win nonetheless, and we should at least keep an eye on them moving forward. This is a nice win for Campbell, who barely broke 17 last year, and now opens his season with a 17:11 win. Varghese just missed out on a state spot last year in XC, running 16:27. He seems to be still finding his early season form, but he is a solid XC runner who has the possibility to find himself in the top 30 or so come districts. A BIG sleeper to keep an eye on here is Ethan Zeh of Radnor. He ran 16:39 last year, yet ran a minute faster at Bulldog this year compared to last. The 1:54/4:27 speedster clearly benefits from a faster course like Lehigh, so don't be surprised if this kid comes from nowhere and steals a state spot come districts.

Commodore Perry Invitational-
A solid win for Harbor Creek as this team's top 5 starts to find its form. This team isn't built to be a powerhouse, but I wouldn't completely rule them out of contention out of AA. There is the possibility for Weber and Starvaggi to give HC two of the top 5 at states, and I liked what I saw out of their #3 and #4 in this race. Nolan Weber and Caleb Mandel are starting to close that gap just a little bit, but that spread is crucial. And while the #5 man is back a little far, Max Dailey is just a freshman. Anytime you have such a young piece in your scoring 5, big jumps are not just possible, but sometimes likely. Obviously this team has some work to do, but the potential is there for this team to come together. Cole Frazier of Hickory continues his hot start to his season. He has consistently been running 30-40 seconds faster in all of his meets this year, and is looking like a guaranteed medal threat.

Kiski Area Cross Country Invitational-
Another week, another win for Mount Lebanon. It looks like some of the varsity guys got to rest, while Patrick Anderson picks up another individual win on the season. As mentioned by one of our readers (much appreciated for the info), Fox Chapel sat out Fitch, and thus we missed out on a opportunity for a great individual race. Having mentioned them both already this year, we saw more solid races out of Greater Latrobe's Justin Carlson, and Indiana Area's Joey Budjos.

White Clay Creek Classic-
We finally got some 5k's out of Unionville this weekend. Despite most of the squad running in different races, here's how the results came out:
Cole Walker-16:02
Cole Driver 17:06
Ethan McIntyre 17:24
James Conway 18:00
James Hoopman 18:27
This wasn't quite what I was expecting from this squad, as this White Clay Creek course isn't super fast, but by no means is it slow. As I said earlier, if Conway can get healthy and get back up towards Walker, this team has a shot at making out of the district. Until then, they aren't primed to even be top 10. Walker is looking extremely solid. As the District one picture continues to heat up with guys like McComb making some noise, Walker should not be ignored in that conversation.

Briarwood Invitational-
In the big premier meet of the weekend, we saw some exciting stuff! Lets hop straight to the team champions in LaSalle. I said they needed to come out and really make a statement, and they did. Dropping 44 points on this field in their season opener to win by 50 points was more than enough. You even got the vibe from their post race interview that this is not the team at full strength. From the sounds of things, this was just their rust-buster. If a rust-buster is dominating a championship caliber field, they're in good shape. I think as of right now, the back half of NA's scoring 5 is a little too far back, so despite it being extremely close, I lean towards LaSalle right now. Twomey will have to be a little stronger up front for them to clinch it, but like I said earlier, its going to be extremely close. The surprise of the weekend was the boys from Great Valley. On paper, I had West Chester East beating them, CB East beating them, and Twin Valley pulling it close. While GV may have lost to LaSalle by 50 points, they beat the rest of the PA field by 50 points themselves! Taking down WCE and CB East by this kind of margin gives me the confidence to say that this team is now one of the favorites to get out of District 1. I don't think they're at Dwest's level quite yet, but this team is right up there at the top, and I think a state spot is their's to lose. I was worried about their lack of front running, but Seth Hoffritz gave the team a huge lift up front and might be a top 15-20 guy in the district right now. Behind GV, things have only gotten more complicated. WCE took down CB East by a good 30 points, without Lewin having a great day. As for now, I have CB East on the outside looking in, and WCE is right on the cusp. While its still early season, I think if Lewin runs like himself in a big race like districts, WC East will still find themselves advancing to states. I was hoping for a better performance from Twin Valley as well, but I think they're better than the day they had on Saturday. As we'll discuss in just a second, I think District 3 is the craziest one to watch right now team-wise, so its very hard to gauge just where Twin Valley falls right now. Servis and Schlegel are great runners, and they'll need to step up to get this team to Hershey. Noah Demis looked great in this race. I think he went out a little hard and paid the price for it, but he is absolutely a contender for a state medal this fall.

Ben Bloser Bulldog Invite- Big Spring-
Well damn District 3, you're crazy. We'd seen most of these teams by now, except, of course, the top two finishing teams in the meet. Cedar Crest and Hempfield made their debuts, and finished 1-2 in the deep meet at Big Spring. Cedar Crest came out with a surprisingly clear victory, whereas 4 points separated 2nd through 5th! This Cedar Crest team is extremely dangerous. They rode to victory off of putting 3 in the top 15, 1 of which is a sophomore Tommy Bildheiser, and the other two are freshmen! These were the top two freshmen in the meet, and Bildheiser was the top sophomore of the meet. Despite a noticeable drop off to their 4th and 5th men, there is not a single senior in the scoring 5 for Cedar Crest. This team has endless potential with all this youth and we might finally have at least a semi-favorite out in District 3 now. It should be noted that although this youth is promising for Cedar Crest, its possible that the inexperience from this group could also be their downfall come the postseason. The other teams up in the mix were runners up Hempfield, Chambersburg, and Carlisle. I did think Carlisle was a little overrated coming into the season (Penntrack has them at the 6th in the state), but this is still a solid squad. Jack Wisner is an absolute beast and Casey Padgett is a formidable #2 man. I think Bryce Dunkelberger had an off day, as he is one of the last guys with experience from running when the Affolders were around. I think if he moves up more towards Padgett (which is very realistic) Carlisle takes this meet by a point or so. I think Carlisle and Cedar Crest are my first two choices for this district title right now, but Chambersburg has put together a string of solid meets, and Hempfield is one of the strongest programs in terms of consistency. Hempfield had the best #5 of the entire meet, and a very tight 43 second spread. I think if either Rittenhouse can step up as their #1, or if this pack can tighten up even more, Hempfield has the chance to sneak away with a district championship. But this will take a perfect race from this whole squad. Not a whole lot to be critical with in regards to Chambersburg, they just have to run a little bit better as a whole. They have a front runner in Trentin Overcash, and they've got decent depth, so there's no surprise as to why they've been hanging around the top of these meets. I think its going to take developing a strong #2 man for this team to breakthrough towards the top, but they can still very realistically make it to Hershey. Lastly, I was disappointed with Oxford. I still think they're better than they've been in the past two meets (even though they won LVC), but this doesn't do them a lot of good in the bigger picture. In an already crowded D1, its going to take near perfection, and more importantly, consistency from teams to make their case. Its obviously still very early, but this kind of performance won't get to Hershey. With that being said,  I wouldn't say that if I didn't think they didn't have a shot at getting there.

That's all for now folks! Keep checking back for content! And remember, stay happy, stay healthy!
-The RunningHub


8 comments:

  1. Other than the obvious, Christian McComb and Cole Walker are the individuals to watch. For team, Great Valley looked good at Briarwood. I had LaSalle at my pre-season pick but have since changed to NA. Two low sticks and great depth going to be difficult to overcome. It's going to be close though.

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  2. I forgot to include Fitch. These are the 3 that didn't medal last year and I see then breaking top 10 and even top 5 for 1 or 2 of them. Also, I have to include Penncrest as a surprise team.




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  3. When're the district 1 rankings coming out

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    1. As you can see, we're releasing our team district rankings from 12 down. Check out our D10 rankings that we just dropped! I'm hoping to pump these out a little faster than I have been, so I hope to release my D1 rankings no later than next week. I may just have been stalling so that I have more data to go off of ;)

      -The RunningHub

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  4. Enjoying the blog so far. I just thought I should mention that Josh Lewis and North East moved up to AA this year.

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    1. Thank you very much for clarifying. I was hesitant to mention it one way or the other, because I had been hearing conflicting reports on it. Will update this.

      -The RunningHub

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  5. Week 3 Top 25

    1. Zachary Kinne, Sr. North Allegheny (7 AAA)
    2. Dan McGoey, Jr. North Allegheny (7 AAA)- Took 3rd at Boardman, so far I see the NA duo as being a real threat to go 1-2 at states. We'll get a better idea this weekend at Foundation but right now the top two looks clear cut.

    3. Tyler Wirth, Sr. Wallenpaupack (2 AAA)- Despite not having his best day at PTXC, I think it’s hard to not see Wirth as someone who can win the state title. I expect his race against the NA boys this weekend to be very telling for how the state scene will shake out.

    4. Jonah Powell, Sr. Grove City (10 AA)- 5th place in a fast Boardman race was a pretty good way for Powell to open his season. Despite some fast early season performances from Josh Lewis, I still have Powell fixed as the top guy in AA.

    5. Seth Ketler, Sr. Seneca Valley (7 AAA)- I try not to be too reactionary to what happens in one race. Despite finishing 9th at RWB, Ketler has shown me enough over the last several years to make me think this is just a temporary snag and he'll be back to putting up great performances in the near future.

    6. Nate Price, Sr. General McLane (10 AA)- Ran a very fast time at Lock Haven without any great competition. I don't read too much into that time because of how fast the course generally is but still a good way to start a season

    7. Andrew Healey, Jr. Holy Cross (2 A)- Ran well to finish as the 3rd PA guy at PTXC. Also ran nearly a minute faster than he did last year on the same course that could be a great sign for things to come.

    8. Patrick Anderson, Jr. Mount Lebanon (7 AAA)
    9. Christian Fitch, Jr. Fox Chapel Area (7 AAA)- I felt compelled to put these two together seeing as the finished within a second of each other at RWB. Although I think they may not be quite ready to compete for D7 title, I'm excited to watch these two mix it up with the best of the best over the next two years.
    10. Josh Lewis, Jr. North East (10 AA)- I feel confident in saying that Lewis has had the hottest start of any runner in the state this year going 3/3 to start the year. This makes me not quite sure where to place him. Seeing him race at Foundation will tell us more about where he will end up in the AA mix.
    11. Jack Miller, Sr. Jenkinstown (1 A)- The top returner in A started his season well with a win at Mill Street. Be on the lookout for him and Healey to mix it up at Foundation in what is sure to be an exciting battle.
    12. Saw Owori, Sr. Seneca Valley (7 AAA)
    13. Christian McComb, Jr. Boyertown (1 AAA)- Very impressive as the top PA finisher at PTXC. Interested to see if he can pull out another big performance at Foundation
    14. Ryan Starvaggi, Sr. Harbor Creek (10 AA)
    15. Garrett Baublitz, Jr. Juniata (6 AA)
    16. Payton Sewall, Sr. Downingtown West (1 AAA)
    17. Jonah Hoey, Jr. Bishop Shanahan (1 AAA)
    18. Cole Walker, Jr. Unionville (1 AAA)
    19. Colton Sands, So. Penn’s Valley Area (6 A)
    20. Jeffery Love, Sr. George School (Independent)
    21. Chayce Macknair, Sr. Mifflin County (6 AAA)
    22. Logan Horst, Sr. Lancaster Mennonite (3 AA)
    23. Jack Wisner, Sr. Carlisle (3 AAA)
    24. Vincent Twomey, Sr. LaSalle (12 AAA)
    25. Alexander Ermold, Sr. Governor Mifflin (3 AAA)

    -FB

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    1. FB, great list. I've put mine below for comparison sake, but I can see that we have some similar ideas. Please comment on who I left off. It could be that I just didn't think there was room, but there's also gotta be guys that I completely forgot about.

      1. Zach Kinne (North Allegheny/Senior)- 7 AAA
      2. Dan McGoey (North Allegheny/Junior)- 7 AAA
      3. Josh Lewis (North East/Senior)- 10 AA
      4. Jonah Powell (Grove City/Senior)- 10 AA
      5. Patrick Anderson (Mount Lebanon/Junior)- 7 AAA
      6. Tyler Wirth (Wallenpaupack/Senior)- 2 AAA
      7. Nate Price (General McLane/Senior)- 10 AA
      8. Jonah Hoey (Bishop Shanahan/Junior)- 1 AAA
      9. Garrett Baublitz (Juniata/Junior)- 6 AA
      10. Seth Ketler (Seneca Valley/Senior)- 7 AAA
      11. Christian McComb (Boyertown/Junior)- 1 AAA
      12. Christian Fitch (Fox Chapel/Junior)- 7 AAA
      13. Colton Sands (Penns Valley/Sophomore)- 6 A
      14. Andrew Healey (Holy Cross/Junior)- 2 A
      15. Mark Brown (Greensburg Salem/Senior)- 7 AA
      16. Jack Miller (Jenkintown/Senior)- 1 A
      17. Cameron Binda (Greensburg Salem/Senior)- 7 AA
      18. Sam Owori (Seneca Valley/Senior)- 7 AAA
      19. Ryan Starvaggi (Harbor Creek/Senior)- 10 AA
      20. Payton Sewall (Downingtown West/Senior)- 1 AAA
      21. Chayce Macknair (Mifflin County/Senior)- 6 AAA
      22. Vincent Twomey (LaSalle/Junior)- 12 AAA
      23. Jack Wisner (Carlisle/Senior)- 3 AAA
      24. Jeffrey Love (George School/Senior)- Independent
      25. Jason Cornelison (Cheltenham/Senior)- 1 AAA
      26. Cole Walker (Unionville/Junior)- 1 AAA
      27. Luke Klingenberg (Cumberland Valley/Senior)- 3 AAA
      28. Linus Blatz (Owen J. Roberts/Senior)- 1 AAA
      29. Ethan Maher (LaSalle/Junior)- 12 AAA
      30. Brayden Harris (Mifflin County/Sophomore)- 6 AAA
      31. Isaac Valderrabano (Downingtown West/Senior)- 1 AAA
      32. Logan Horst (Lancaster Mennonite/Senior)- 3 AA
      33. Noah Demis (North Penn/Junior)- 1 AAA
      34. Alexander Ermold (Governor Mifflin/Senior)- 3 AAA
      35. Scott Routledge (Winchester Thurston/Junior)- 7 A
      36. Ethan Knoebel (Southern Columbia/Senior)- 4 A
      37. Ian Zimmerman (Northern Bedford/Sophomore)- 5 A
      38. Ben Hoffman (Elk County Catholic/Junior)- 9 A
      39. Mitchell Rome (Dallas/Senior)- 2 AA
      40. Connor Shields (Warwick/Senior)- 3 AAA
      41. Liam Mead (Montrose/Senior)- 2 A
      42. Joshua Lewin (WC East/Junior)- 1 AAA
      43. Aiden Weber (Harbor Creek/Senior)- 10 AA
      44. Zachary Leachman (Mars/Junior)- 7 AAA
      45. Brendan Colwell (Penns Valley/Sophomore)- 6 A
      46. Ben Kuhn (Wyomissing/Junior)- 3 AA
      47. Evan Kreider (Cocalico/Senior)- 3 AAA
      48. Adam Hessler (Freedom/Junior)- 7 A
      49. Jarrett Raudensky (York Suburban/Senior)- 3 AA
      50. Nathan Grucelski (Conestoga Valley/Senior)- 3 AAA

      Honorable Mention: Jakolby Fackler (Palmyra/Sophomore)- 3 AAA; Seth Hoffritz (Great Valley/Senior)- 1 AAA; Erik Andrzejewski (General McLane/Senior)- 10 AA; Bradden Koors (LaSalle/Junior)- 12 AAA; Riley Williamson (Parkland/Senior)- 11 AAA

      Left Off for Injury Concerns: Kendall Branan (Indiana/Junior)- 7 AA


      -Jiminy Cricket

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