Weekend Recap: NA wins, but Seneca Valley Surprises: Foundation and much more!

As I was watching the meets kick off this weekend, I thought to myself, what am I going to mess up the most this weekend? Will it be the smaller non-Foundation meets? Or, am I totally messing up these A and AA guesses at Foundation? There was also the unthinkable, could NA actually lose?

Well, I messed some things up pretty badly. But, like Etrain always used to say, he wanted people to #DerailTheTrain! So thank you all for keeping things interesting! Lets dive into what went down this weekend!

Council Rock Invitational-
Not sure what to make of these results if I'm being completely honest. The top 4 teams from last year's meet averaged under 17:20. This year, the winning team's average was 17:28. So despite some well-known names in this field, its hard to really gauge how good some of these teams are on account of the fact that it truly just wasn't that fast of a meet this time around. That being said, I will say that CR South has hopped back on my radar out of District 1. As some teams fade out of the picture and others hop in, CR South let us know that they are deep. They won the meet with just 81 points and took down a solid team in Twin Valley. While that's all well and exciting, they did it without their #1 man! Without Collin Ochs, who won Abington this year (over a contingent of Great Valley guys), CR South used a RIDICULOUS 18 second time spread to pack up and win the meet. With Ochs in the lineup, the CR South boys roll through this field. I haven't seen quite enough from them to have them go shooting up the rankings, but its fair to put this team in the 5th-7th place group out of District 1 (spoiler alert!). Individually, a slight surprise win from Mechanicsburg's Brandon Knepper. I've mentioned him as a name to watch since PTXC, but even then, he surprised me. I think Love faltered a little bit in this race, as I thought he could've walked away victorious. Glad to see a solid race out of Cornelison. After missing Abington and then not having a great race at Briarwood, I think he's just starting to get back to his old self, for whatever reason that may be. But nonetheless, Cornelison was a district title contender headed into the season, so while he may not be quite there, watch for him to start shooting up in races. Another solid race for Ermold after a great PTXC run. Also a nice race for Sam Kartsonis of Harriton. Big improvement for him.

Crimson Hawk Invitational-
Despite a tough race from Berzonsky, and a DNS for Budjos, the Indiana Area boys still rolled to a win, scoring just 28 points in the small meet. Despite being a relatively weak field, I liked this race from the winning squad. To rest your #1 and get a tough day from your #2 and still look great as a team shows this squad is growing, and getting deeper. They probably could've scored in the teens at this meet if they were racing full strength.

Penncrest Invitational-
In a solid 5k debut for the Penncrest boys, this is about what I had expected. They put 5 under 17:45 and dominated their small home meet, with Theveny looking solid up front. It'll be interesting to see how this team stacks up in a bigger meet, as they are absolutely a bubble team in District One right now.

Sharpsville Blue Devil Invitational-
Another week, yet another win for New Castle. Hard to believe this team is one of the few undefeated squad on the year. It'd take some digging, but if you look at teams that have competed in at least 3 meets this year, there isn't many undefeated teams out there. Off the top of my head, its North Allegheny, New Castle, and Jenkintown, though I'm probably missing some. Nonetheless, Anthony Litrenta and his squad continue to just quietly dismantle fields. Again, they have yet to face a truly fierce program, but they are not to be trifled with. I said they wouldn't have a shot at Greensburg Salem at districts, but after a slip up from GS this weekend, I wouldn't rule it out. Well, I tried to hype up the potential of this Harbor Creek team, but it looks like this squad just isn't going to come together. That being said, Starvaggi and Weber just continue to assert their dominance across AA. I'm super curious to see how they would've fared out in Hershey. I don't think they would've cracked the top two, but they certainly could've contended for top 5. Lastly, more solid racing from Cochranton who continue to show that they're one of the stronger programs in A statewide.

PIAA Foundation Invitational-
Alrighty, I made you wait till down here to get into it. The perennial powerhouse of a meet did not disappoint, and while I actually did have some good calls, I got my you-know-what handed to me by these athletes this weekend with my predictions, so I'll stop stalling and fill you in.

A:
You may not believe me, but I did think Miller was going to win this race. I had my doubts, but by no means was I surprised when he broke the tape. What stunned me was his sheer dominance in the second half of this race. After the race of the year was hyped up between him, Sands and Healey, Jack Miller did not just rise to the occasion, he took it and ran with it (no pun intended). I wasn't sure how legit his win at Mill Street was, which is why I think I had my doubts. With Miller's experience, and now his confidence, this title is his to lose. I think as long as he doesn't fall into some kind of pace trap, and runs his own race come November, he will be crowned state champion. Will we see a legitimate regionals threat out of the Jenkintown senior? Speaking of Jenkintown, they also made me look foolish. I really was not convinced this team was legit, and WT just looked so good at R,W&B that it made me hard to bet against them. Jenkintown held their own in the merge as well, against some of the best teams in the state. I really like the direction this team is headed in, and they are obviously the new favorites as of now. Though, truthfully, I would call Miller more of a clear favorite right now than his squad. WT is known for peaking beautifully in the postseason, so while I think they have tons of work to do, I wouldn't quite hand the title to Jenkintown just quite yet. I really like this Wyalusing Valley Area team though. They finished a strong 3rd, and they actually hung well with Jenkintown through 3 or 4 guys. They really closed the gap on our top 2 teams after the halfway mark too, which I really like to see. When states comes around and some guys blow up, if your team is picking guys off in the 2nd half of the race, anything is possible. Also shoutout to a solid race for Kauffman, because he helped me predict the top 5 finishers in the race.

AA:
Alright, so yes, I admit it. I have been stupidly oblivious to how good Grove City is and I don't know why it took me so long to realize it. Before I go over the results that make me look like a fool, I can proudly admit I called the top four individuals in the race in order. But that's about the only positive thing I can say. I really didn't see Greensburg Salem losing this race, and I think their front running needed to be a little more convincing. I think the Bindas didn't have their best day. So before I get to Grove City, I still see Greensburg Salem as the favorite due to only losing by 3 points, but obviously this one is up in the air now. Ok, now I can focus on Grove City. Yeah, they really brought it. With the overall runner up and the best 5th man in the field, it was hard to see this team losing. Like I said, I think the downfall of GS in this race was their top 3, and Grove City was able to keep it close up front and utilize their depth to pull out the win. Whether GS falters again, or if Jones and Somora step up for Grove City, the key to winning a state title for Powell and his boys will be keeping the score close through the top 3. Individually, we got exactly what we expected. A Powell/Lewis showdown that resulted in Lewis pulling away in the last mile. I liked Baublitz's rebound in this race after he fell apart at the end of Ben Bloser last week. Big race of the day for me was Dylan Throop finishing behind his star teammate Nate Price to sneak in the top 5. Its a shame because this ended up being the strongest duo in the field, yet the rest of the General McLane team couldn't tie it all together, finishing 5th behind York Suburban and North East.

AAA:
And here we are, the holy grail of all the races in PA so far this season. As many readers have already discussed, NA's win ended up having us question them more than praise them for being champions. With only a 3 point victory over their WPIAL counterparts in Seneca Valley, the scariest part about this close call is that Seth Ketler ran this race sick, and definitely could've dropped this score by about four points or so. So the question becomes, is LaSalle now the clear favorite? Or is this truly now a 3 horse race? Possibly four, because who knows what Dwest will unleash at Carlisle. Seneca Valley was the 3rd best team in the state headed into this weekend, and while they may still be 3rd, people are looking at that spot very differently than they were 48 hours ago. Lets unpack the rest of the top 5. While I had State College over Mount Lebanon, they finished within 10 points of each other, and both held their own behind the madness up front. I liked the run from Owen Isham, who stepped up and gave SC a low stick when they needed one in this deep field. For those who didn't know, Patrick Anderson is legit. I did not expect a top 3 finish for him, and he stepped up and comfortably beat the entire field except for the NA duo. The problem is, with Anderson running so well, I expected to see Lebo a tad bit closer to NA and SV. With a slightly better field at states, if Anderson has to hold off a couple other big names, SC's depth might take over and jump Lebo in the state standings. Not really sure what to make of Great Valley's performance, other than it was pretty impressive. They only fielded five guys, and still had the best 5th man in the field outside of SV and NA. The crazy thing is, their #2 didn't even race! This showcases Great Valley's depth, and I think they really are right with Lebo and State College as the 5th-7th best teams in the state right now. In other notable news, although the WPIAL dominated this meet, District 1 teams took 5th-10th in this race. As expected, OJR ran tough, and took the next spot behind Great Valley. I still think Blatz can run better than he did this weekend, and give OJR a real lift up front. I will say I'm very impressed with Methacton's performance. I didn't think much of their win at Rose Tree, but with Varghese getting back into form, this squad really has jumped into the qualifying conversation. Lowe Merion, Boyertown, and CB East rounded out the top 10. As of now, I no longer have these teams in my possible qualifying positions, as I just don't see the potential for these squads to jump some of the programs ahead of them. It should be noted that CB East was without Endres, but even then, mathematically, we probably would not have seen a better finish than maybe 8th with him at full strength.

Let's talk individuals. I still have Kinne-McGoey going 1-2 come states, but Anderson proved it isn't a guarantee at least. I like Wirth's bounce back race here after not looking his absolute best at PTXC, and he got his revenge on McComb. I like what Owori has been doing. He's usually just a step behind Ketler, but with health issues plaguing him, Owori has continued to perform well up front. McComb continues to run well as he makes his campaign for D1 favorite. Huge shoutout to Wirth's teammate, Dieter Burkes, for being the top sophomore in the field with an incredible jump from last year, coming in at 12th overall. Clearly, training under Wirth has done him well, and he might be the next big stud at Wallenpaupack. Possible DMR from these boys? I'll push that off till a later time...

As I finish up the district rankings, I'll start to shift my focus to more broad, statewide rankings to give you guys a better idea of who I think is on top. Thank you for reading as always!

Stay Happy, stay healthy
-The RunningHub