Well ladies and gents, its hard to believe that after so much buildup, and so much hype, just like that, our indoor season in PA has come to a close (since NBIN is in New York). While truthfully, I didn't have a ton of time to watch the events live on Sunday, I did take the opportunity to sit down and watch all the races after the fact.
My initial reactions from a quick scan over the results were, "man, this year's meet was just flat out slow". Which, if you look at the results and results only, is a fair judgement to make. However, it didn't take much time and digging to discover many of the unfortunate circumstances that came to fruition over the weekend. In an unprecedented manner, we saw nasty spills from Josh Lewin and Tyler Shue in the mile (two different heats for that matter), and then one that took down Eissler in the early stages of the 800.
These undoubtedly had some major impacts at the top of both events that ultimately slowed things down. Not only did it take some major players out of the field, but anytime there is a big enough of a collision to take someone out of the race, it will naturally slow almost everyone else down in the field as well.
If there is any consolation for this chaos though, every runner that suffered a DNF ended up picking up medals in other events. Shue ended up getting his glory by winning the 800, while Eissler ended up with double golds in the 4x4 and 4x8, and Lewin's West Chester East squad grabbed a medal in the DMR.
800m:
This was a really fun race to go back and watch, as the top four broke away in the 3rd lap of this race, and it really just looked like a mad dash from that point forward. A push by Endres to the front pulled the top group away, while Hoey tried to go for glory with 200 to go. Ketler responded, but ultimately, Shue had the last gear and swung past all of them in the final curve, clinching his first state title.
I think part of the reason the winning time was so slow was due to the relaxed early pace, coming through in 56 high. I also think crowding the heats with more guys caused some more jostling for position (obviously) which overall impeded some comfortable, free racing to run quick times. I will say though, the lack of depth really surprised me. It took 1:57.85 to medal, which historically, is as slow as they come-
8th place finishers:
2018 1:55.37
2017 1:56.10
2016 1:56.99
2015 1:55.15
Again, obviously, having Eissler out played a role, but this race ended up being a bit underwhelming in my opinion. Its crazy to note that, Jonah Hoey ran slower than he did last year, and got 4th. He didn't even medal last year.
Hopefully, if the PTFCA cares even the slightest bit about giving these athletes a chance to run fast, then they'll take notice to the consequences of making larger heats. In the meantime, the athletes will have to adapt to still being able to run fast in crowded races.
Truthfully, I think Powell could've won this race. Although he locked up right at the very end, the kid completely solo'd his 1:56, and even casually pointed to someone in the crowd on the last lap. He looked comfortable enough for me to say that had he come in with a faster seed time, we'd be talking about how Conway and Powell both took home double golds in their senior year.
Closing note on this race, its crazy to think that Jack Balick was one place off of medaling. I had hyped this kid all year as a sleeper, so I thought it was cool to see him end up being the runner up to Powell in the first heat.
Mile:
While I didn't have the opportunity to post a preview for the mile (my dearest apologies), I did have the race coming down to Anderson and Powell, though I can admit, I would've picked Anderson. Like the 800, the top 4 separated themselves in this race, and it was pretty much a moshpit of guys within 1-2 seconds of one another for the last few medal spots. It should come as no surprise that a crop of experienced veterans in Anderson, Powell, and Wirth pulled away from the pack. The race I was pleasantly surprised by was Cameron Binda, the only other runner in the field to dip under 4:20. Binda has historically been a consistently been a state qualifier and a sub 4:25 guy, but this was the first time in my opinion that we really saw him step up and hang around the front of a field this good.
There was then a big four second gap back to the second half of medalists, which was Owori, Macknair, Twomey, and Shields. While none of these guys were surprises to land on the podium, this field was deep enough where none of them were guarantees. Klingenberg just missed out on his first track medal in PA, but held his own well given the fact that he raced so sparsely over the course of the indoor season.
The District 1 guys struggled a bit in this race. There was the fall from Lewin, and the remaining three D1 athletes all finished in the bottom three spots of the race. As for McComb, he really struggled in the XC postseason, yet still decided to kick off his season in early December, and I think that may have hurt him. As for Piercy, I don't think he had as overall as strong of a winter from when he made it last year, and I just think his fitness wasn't quite there. And finally, for Walker, as I predicted, we never really saw him again after his debut, which was when he qualified back in early December. My guess is this was treated as more of a tune-up for outdoor than a legitimate chance to run fast against PA's best.
Stay tuned for Part 2 coming at some point tomorrow!
-The RunningHub
Wednesday, February 27, 2019
Wednesday, February 20, 2019
PTFCA State Championship Predictions: 800
Be sure to check out our predictions that have already been posted for the relays at PSU this weekend!
4x8 Predictions: https://pahsrunninghub.blogspot.com/2019/02/ptfca-state-championship-predictions-4x8.html
DMR Predictions: https://pahsrunninghub.blogspot.com/2019/02/ptfca-state-championship-predictions-dmr.html
800:
Accepted Entries-
1 Albright, Eric 10 Garnet Valle
2 Balick, Jack 12 Abing Friends
3 Branan, Kendall 11 Indiana Area
4 Cj, Thimons 11 Highlands
5 Eissler, Matt 12 Pennridge 6 Endres, David 12 CB East
7 Ford, Daniel 11 Quaker Valley
8 Hoey, Jonah 11 Bish Shanahan
9 Ketler, Seth 12 Seneca Valle
10 Messner, Joe 12 State College
11 Ochs, Collin 12 CR South
12 Powell, Jonah 12 Grove City A
13 Raup, Ricky 11 St. Joe Prep
14 Shields, Connor 12 Warwick
15 Shue, Tyler 11 Ephrata
16 Wirth, Tyler 12 Wallenpaupack
17 Wisner, Jack 12 Carlisle
18 Zajicek, Elias 12 Chartiers Valley 19 Zeh, Ethan 12 Radnor 20 Zelinsky, Jarett 12 Holy Ghost Prep
Initial Reactions:
The top 11 guys in the state are all entered, which is a real treat. We ended up having six scratches, which is a little less than average, which resulted in a decently quick cut off of 1:59.57. Some of the surprising entries in my opinion were Powell and Shields. Although I suppose with no relay duty and their main events (the mile) being earlier in the day, it makes no sense not to run it.
The race:
Ok, so back when there were 24 guys, there were 3 heats of 8, which makes rational sense. With 20 guys accepted, my guess is unfortunately this race gets a little more crowded with two heats? Will they do 10 and 10? I'm not entirely sure, so if anyone has any insight on this it would be much appreciated. For now, I'm going to operate under that assumption, but I will make the necessary adjustments to this post if I hear otherwise.
Heat 1-
CJ Thimons
Jonah Powell
Daniel Ford
Kendall Branan
Tyler Wirth
Jack Balick
Ricky Raup
Connor Shields
Joe Messner
Elias Zajicek
I'm used to breaking down the indoor 800 race by the three heats, so looking at this at a two section race really changes a lot of things. The higher number of guys in the slower section raises the likelihood that someone will take it out hard, which could end up throwing more guys into the medals that aren't from the fast heat. Of course, on the contrary, having more guys in the fast heat makes it harder for guys to medal in a slower section.
Realistically speaking, the way the 800 runs, there's bound to be one or two guys that lock up and open the door for medalists in the slower section. The question simply becomes, how many?
We saw three medalists outside the fast heat at last year's championships, but that was in an unorthodox scenario in which the middle section came through 400 faster than the top heat. I think having veteran milers in the field like Powell, Wirth, and Shields will help keep the pace honest in the middle of the race if things do go out hard, which could set up for a really fast race.
Thimons is the top seed in this section, but hasn't quite shown a knack for winning races this season. I like guys like Branan and Balick, who have come up with either a big win or a string of wins throughout the season. The two most talented guys in the field are hands down, Wirth and Powell, but both guys are running in off distances.
When it comes down to it, I think Powell is just a class above the rest of these guys in the 800, and ends up pulling away in a 1:55 type time to hop into the medals. I see Shields, Branan, and Balick all kicking hard close behind in 1:56-1:57 marks.
Heat 2-
Tyler Shue
David Endres
Matt Eissler
Jack Wisner
Seth Ketler
Jonah Hoey
Collin Ochs
Ethan Zeh
Eric Albright
Jarrett Zelinsky
While there are certainly cons with having the track slightly more crowded for the elite athletes, we are fortunate that we get to see all the best names in the event rightfully get to go head to head against one another. There's usually more than just eight guys that can compete for a top five finish, especially in an event as wild as the 800 (just take a lot at all the medals from outside the fast heat over the years). Every guy in this field has proven they belong here, and are not here from just one fluke race. Fun fact, the top eight guys in this field all have some type of individual state medal to their name.
This race might be the one I'm most excited for. Our top three seeds are some of the most well-known names in track and field over the past few years, yet all lack an individual gold medal. Of course, that list doesn't include Jonah Hoey, who arguably has the best resume in all of PA and lacks a gold himself. Seth Ketler has been apart of historically fast DMRs while Ethan Zeh is a returning outdoor medalist who has proven to be extremely consistent.
So how the heck could someone outside of this list of names win this thing?
Jack Wisner is fresh ladies and gentlemen.
The Pitt commit has historically had quiet indoor seasons, while unleashing impressive PR's of 4:18 and 1:56 in the spring. So naturally, when he went out and solo'd a 1:56 on a flat track this past weekend, people took notice.
If you aren't aware of Matt Wisner's epic high school career, I suggest you take a gander. The Duke athlete has been thriving in the middle distances, but could never capture a state gold in high school.
As Jack Wisner enters this weekend as the 4th seed and the only fresh one, is it possible that the Carlisle senior pulls an upset on a pack of guys that have been racing against each other for years?
Despite all the buildup hype I just gave him, I think he's going to come up just short.
Matt Eissler seems to be the logical pick, as he has proven to be the king of successful doubles after years of 4x8 duties. But, we can't forget that Endres did beat him head to head at Ocean Breeze. Honestly, I've had some inclination to pick Jonah Hoey to win this thing, but he's just been a little too flat for me this season to pick him to win. I think a lot of people are quick to pick Shue to win this thing, but he has very little experience successfully doubling back from a mile. Collin Ochs has been great at winning races this year, but is he ready to step up to the top tier and take everyone in PA down?
Seth Ketler got caught up in the unfortunate fall during the outdoor final last spring, and has to be hungry for vengeance. Zeh and Zelinsky are two extremely consistent 800 guys who will also have to overcome doubling back from the 4x8. Lastly, there's Eric Albright. The sophomore superstar has been a surprise to everyone this season. Can he drop another wild 2-3 second PR and compete at the front?
Ultimately, I think this race comes down to Eissler, Endres, Wisner and Shue. My guess is despite his excellent closing speed, the mile legs are too much for Shue to overcome, and Eissler gets his first state gold. Cheers to a double gold for the Penn commit! My guess is despite the heartbreak of yet another state silver, Shue learns his lesson and gets his gold this spring...
1. Matt Eissler 1:53.2
2. Tyler Shue 1:53.5
3. Jack Wisner 1:53.9
4. David Endres 1:54.2
5. Seth Ketler 1:54.6
6. Jonah Powell 1:55.1
7. Collin Ochs 1:55.1
8. Jonah Hoey 1:55.3
-The RunningHub
4x8 Predictions: https://pahsrunninghub.blogspot.com/2019/02/ptfca-state-championship-predictions-4x8.html
DMR Predictions: https://pahsrunninghub.blogspot.com/2019/02/ptfca-state-championship-predictions-dmr.html
800:
Accepted Entries-
1 Albright, Eric 10 Garnet Valle
2 Balick, Jack 12 Abing Friends
3 Branan, Kendall 11 Indiana Area
4 Cj, Thimons 11 Highlands
5 Eissler, Matt 12 Pennridge 6 Endres, David 12 CB East
7 Ford, Daniel 11 Quaker Valley
8 Hoey, Jonah 11 Bish Shanahan
9 Ketler, Seth 12 Seneca Valle
10 Messner, Joe 12 State College
11 Ochs, Collin 12 CR South
12 Powell, Jonah 12 Grove City A
13 Raup, Ricky 11 St. Joe Prep
14 Shields, Connor 12 Warwick
15 Shue, Tyler 11 Ephrata
16 Wirth, Tyler 12 Wallenpaupack
17 Wisner, Jack 12 Carlisle
18 Zajicek, Elias 12 Chartiers Valley 19 Zeh, Ethan 12 Radnor 20 Zelinsky, Jarett 12 Holy Ghost Prep
Initial Reactions:
The top 11 guys in the state are all entered, which is a real treat. We ended up having six scratches, which is a little less than average, which resulted in a decently quick cut off of 1:59.57. Some of the surprising entries in my opinion were Powell and Shields. Although I suppose with no relay duty and their main events (the mile) being earlier in the day, it makes no sense not to run it.
The race:
Ok, so back when there were 24 guys, there were 3 heats of 8, which makes rational sense. With 20 guys accepted, my guess is unfortunately this race gets a little more crowded with two heats? Will they do 10 and 10? I'm not entirely sure, so if anyone has any insight on this it would be much appreciated. For now, I'm going to operate under that assumption, but I will make the necessary adjustments to this post if I hear otherwise.
Heat 1-
CJ Thimons
Jonah Powell
Daniel Ford
Kendall Branan
Tyler Wirth
Jack Balick
Ricky Raup
Connor Shields
Joe Messner
Elias Zajicek
I'm used to breaking down the indoor 800 race by the three heats, so looking at this at a two section race really changes a lot of things. The higher number of guys in the slower section raises the likelihood that someone will take it out hard, which could end up throwing more guys into the medals that aren't from the fast heat. Of course, on the contrary, having more guys in the fast heat makes it harder for guys to medal in a slower section.
Realistically speaking, the way the 800 runs, there's bound to be one or two guys that lock up and open the door for medalists in the slower section. The question simply becomes, how many?
We saw three medalists outside the fast heat at last year's championships, but that was in an unorthodox scenario in which the middle section came through 400 faster than the top heat. I think having veteran milers in the field like Powell, Wirth, and Shields will help keep the pace honest in the middle of the race if things do go out hard, which could set up for a really fast race.
Thimons is the top seed in this section, but hasn't quite shown a knack for winning races this season. I like guys like Branan and Balick, who have come up with either a big win or a string of wins throughout the season. The two most talented guys in the field are hands down, Wirth and Powell, but both guys are running in off distances.
When it comes down to it, I think Powell is just a class above the rest of these guys in the 800, and ends up pulling away in a 1:55 type time to hop into the medals. I see Shields, Branan, and Balick all kicking hard close behind in 1:56-1:57 marks.
Heat 2-
Tyler Shue
David Endres
Matt Eissler
Jack Wisner
Seth Ketler
Jonah Hoey
Collin Ochs
Ethan Zeh
Eric Albright
Jarrett Zelinsky
While there are certainly cons with having the track slightly more crowded for the elite athletes, we are fortunate that we get to see all the best names in the event rightfully get to go head to head against one another. There's usually more than just eight guys that can compete for a top five finish, especially in an event as wild as the 800 (just take a lot at all the medals from outside the fast heat over the years). Every guy in this field has proven they belong here, and are not here from just one fluke race. Fun fact, the top eight guys in this field all have some type of individual state medal to their name.
This race might be the one I'm most excited for. Our top three seeds are some of the most well-known names in track and field over the past few years, yet all lack an individual gold medal. Of course, that list doesn't include Jonah Hoey, who arguably has the best resume in all of PA and lacks a gold himself. Seth Ketler has been apart of historically fast DMRs while Ethan Zeh is a returning outdoor medalist who has proven to be extremely consistent.
So how the heck could someone outside of this list of names win this thing?
Jack Wisner is fresh ladies and gentlemen.
The Pitt commit has historically had quiet indoor seasons, while unleashing impressive PR's of 4:18 and 1:56 in the spring. So naturally, when he went out and solo'd a 1:56 on a flat track this past weekend, people took notice.
If you aren't aware of Matt Wisner's epic high school career, I suggest you take a gander. The Duke athlete has been thriving in the middle distances, but could never capture a state gold in high school.
As Jack Wisner enters this weekend as the 4th seed and the only fresh one, is it possible that the Carlisle senior pulls an upset on a pack of guys that have been racing against each other for years?
Despite all the buildup hype I just gave him, I think he's going to come up just short.
Matt Eissler seems to be the logical pick, as he has proven to be the king of successful doubles after years of 4x8 duties. But, we can't forget that Endres did beat him head to head at Ocean Breeze. Honestly, I've had some inclination to pick Jonah Hoey to win this thing, but he's just been a little too flat for me this season to pick him to win. I think a lot of people are quick to pick Shue to win this thing, but he has very little experience successfully doubling back from a mile. Collin Ochs has been great at winning races this year, but is he ready to step up to the top tier and take everyone in PA down?
Seth Ketler got caught up in the unfortunate fall during the outdoor final last spring, and has to be hungry for vengeance. Zeh and Zelinsky are two extremely consistent 800 guys who will also have to overcome doubling back from the 4x8. Lastly, there's Eric Albright. The sophomore superstar has been a surprise to everyone this season. Can he drop another wild 2-3 second PR and compete at the front?
Ultimately, I think this race comes down to Eissler, Endres, Wisner and Shue. My guess is despite his excellent closing speed, the mile legs are too much for Shue to overcome, and Eissler gets his first state gold. Cheers to a double gold for the Penn commit! My guess is despite the heartbreak of yet another state silver, Shue learns his lesson and gets his gold this spring...
1. Matt Eissler 1:53.2
2. Tyler Shue 1:53.5
3. Jack Wisner 1:53.9
4. David Endres 1:54.2
5. Seth Ketler 1:54.6
6. Jonah Powell 1:55.1
7. Collin Ochs 1:55.1
8. Jonah Hoey 1:55.3
-The RunningHub
PTFCA State Championship Predictions: 4x800
Our next installment of predictions for this weekend's state championships are the 4x8! However, before you read this, make sure to check out our prediction post for the DMR, which already has some great discussion going on in the comments. Once all the predictions are posted, I'll be sure to throw up a main discussion post with links to each event.
4x8:
Accepted Teams:
1 Bensalem 2 Bishop Shanahan
3 Central Bucks East
4 Central Bucks South
5 Central Bucks West
6 Cheltenham
7 Council Rock North 8 Council Rock South
9 Downingtown West
10 Haverford Township HS 11 Holy Ghost Preparatory School
12 Indiana Area
13 LaSalle College High School
14 North Penn
15 Owen J. Roberts
16 Penn Wood
17 Penncrest
18 Pennridge
19 Radnor
20 State College Area High School
21 Wyomissing Area
Initial Reactions:
The two scratches from this field are Twin Valley and West Chester East, as they are going all in on the DMR to try and come away with a win (although yes, Lewin is running the mile).
The schools I'm most interested in seeing are the super deep ones such as CB West, LaSalle, Downingtown West, Haverford, to see which guys are and aren't on the relay.
If you told me at the beginning of the season that Shanahan would put out a 4x800 at states with Jonah Hoey on it, I probably would've laughed at you.
The race:
Heat 1-
Penncrest
Central Bucks South
Bensalem
Cheltenham
Central Bucks East
Holy Ghost
North Penn
Downingtown West
Council Rock North
Owen J Roberts
Penn Wood
There are a lot of interesting dynamics in this first heat. You have a lot of teams that made their way into this field with no ace whatsoever. Cheltenham, Council Rock North, North Penn, Owen J Roberts, and Penn Wood seemingly all made this field without having a single guy capable of going sub 2 (Blatz possibly).Then you have relays that will likely ride off the coattails of strong anchors such as Holy Ghost and CB East with Zelinsky and Endres. So how will things shake out?
I really like Penncrest and Central Bucks East in this first heat. Penncrest has quietly run very well this year, consistently holding their own in good fields both in PA and up in NY. They have a very balanced relay all while still having a legit solid sub 2 leg in Woolery. CB East has an army of guys to choose from, but with the high likelihood that Endres gets the baton behind a team like Penncrest, this anchor leg could end up being wicked fast.
There were two medalists from the first heat in last year's 2018 state championships, and I think while its possible, my guess is we only see one this year.
Heat 2-
Central Bucks West
Haverford Township
Pennridge
Council Rock South
Bishop Shanahan
State College
Wyomissing
Radnor
Indiana Area
LaSalle
Although we've become accustomed to seeing 7:40's and 7:50's galore over the past few years, make no mistake, this is an excellent state championship field.
I've said it all year, and I'm going to stick by it. I don't see Pennridge losing this race at full strength. I give credit to CB West for the times they've thrown down this year, and I think through 3 guys they're actually better than Pennridge, but I think this is Matt Eissler's race to lose. Anderson Dimon just blasted a record-setting 400 at MOC. Luke Eissler has proven he can be a consistent sub 2 guy. Yes, Laatsch and Shields are great 1:59-2:00 pieces for CB West, but I think when you match these teams up, the question becomes, can Luke Fehrman match up against Eissler with maybe a second gap or so on him? And when it comes down to that, naturally, I side with Eissler. I do think this is going to be a great race, but ultimately, I feel comfortable about picking Pennridge for this title.
This will be no two horse race though. Haverford is obviously, on paper, in contention to beat out both these teams. They ran 8:03 at Lehigh, and have 2 guaranteed sub 2 legs in Tomov and Campbell. After that, they have a great pool to pick from of Peetros, Fingerhut, Jack Roth, and even Donnelly.
The rest of the teams that I think have a legitimate chance to somehow win this thing would be Council Rock South and State College. As was discussed by some fellow readers on the last post, it was a bit of a surprise to see CR South opt for just the 4x8 over the DMR. Well clearly, they feel as if they can do some serious damage in this event. And who is to say they couldn't? They have one of the best legs in the field with Collin Ochs, another all-around talented runner in Kutney, and a 2:00-2:01 split type guy in Connor Dickel. I think Kutney could absolutely keep this team around the front of the race on a leadoff leg, and if whoever the fourth leg of this relay is can duplicate a 2:00 ish leg in the middle with Dickel, Ochs could absolutely anchor this relay home in a time well below 8:00.
My other sleepers for the win would be the boys from State College. It should go without saying that this program has proven itself time and time again that it can be a force in the middle distance events regardless of what pieces it has in the beginning of the season. And sure enough, heading into states this weekend, two pieces in Joe Messner and Zach Decarmine have emerged from the shadows. Like CR South, they also have proven 2:01 ish type guys on their middle legs with Marc Allerheiligen and Henry Ballard. While other teams have to prove they're deep enough through four legs, I think the key for State College will be having their new stars rise up to the occasion. Decarmine's 800 from the Carnival converts to a 1:57 high open mark. If the junior can ride this momentum to a 1:55ish split on the anchor, it might be just enough for the boys from Happy Valley to pull off a MASSIVE upset on their home turf.
LaSalle is obviously probably the deepest team here, but I just don't see them having the 1:55 leg or faster to propel them to a victory.
Shanahan is a huge question mark because of how unexpected their 8:09 at MOC, and while having Jonah on anchor will definitely put them towards the front, I think the major lack of experience from a majority of this relay will prohibit them from contending for a win.
On paper, Radnor honestly has all the pieces to contend for a win in this race. I think they'll be in contention for a high medal in this race, I just don't see it all coming together for them to win this whole thing.
Lastly, Indiana Area and Wyomissing are two smaller AA teams that should be applauded for their ability to make it into the fast heat at the state championships. Indiana Area has surprised us before (see XC), and Kendall Brennan has been running great lately, I just don't think they have quite enough firepower to contend for a win in this field. I have pretty much the same to say for Wyomissing.
Predictions:
1. Pennridge 7:53.9
2. Central Bucks West 7:54.8
3. State College 7:56.9
4. Council Rock South 7:57.1
5. Haverford 7:59.0
6. Bishop Shanahan 7:59.4
7. Penncrest 8:03.1
8. LaSalle 8:03.3
9. Radnor 8:03.9
-The RunningHub
4x8:
Accepted Teams:
1 Bensalem 2 Bishop Shanahan
3 Central Bucks East
4 Central Bucks South
5 Central Bucks West
6 Cheltenham
7 Council Rock North 8 Council Rock South
9 Downingtown West
10 Haverford Township HS 11 Holy Ghost Preparatory School
12 Indiana Area
13 LaSalle College High School
14 North Penn
15 Owen J. Roberts
16 Penn Wood
17 Penncrest
18 Pennridge
19 Radnor
20 State College Area High School
21 Wyomissing Area
Initial Reactions:
The two scratches from this field are Twin Valley and West Chester East, as they are going all in on the DMR to try and come away with a win (although yes, Lewin is running the mile).
The schools I'm most interested in seeing are the super deep ones such as CB West, LaSalle, Downingtown West, Haverford, to see which guys are and aren't on the relay.
If you told me at the beginning of the season that Shanahan would put out a 4x800 at states with Jonah Hoey on it, I probably would've laughed at you.
The race:
Heat 1-
Penncrest
Central Bucks South
Bensalem
Cheltenham
Central Bucks East
Holy Ghost
North Penn
Downingtown West
Council Rock North
Owen J Roberts
Penn Wood
There are a lot of interesting dynamics in this first heat. You have a lot of teams that made their way into this field with no ace whatsoever. Cheltenham, Council Rock North, North Penn, Owen J Roberts, and Penn Wood seemingly all made this field without having a single guy capable of going sub 2 (Blatz possibly).Then you have relays that will likely ride off the coattails of strong anchors such as Holy Ghost and CB East with Zelinsky and Endres. So how will things shake out?
I really like Penncrest and Central Bucks East in this first heat. Penncrest has quietly run very well this year, consistently holding their own in good fields both in PA and up in NY. They have a very balanced relay all while still having a legit solid sub 2 leg in Woolery. CB East has an army of guys to choose from, but with the high likelihood that Endres gets the baton behind a team like Penncrest, this anchor leg could end up being wicked fast.
There were two medalists from the first heat in last year's 2018 state championships, and I think while its possible, my guess is we only see one this year.
Heat 2-
Central Bucks West
Haverford Township
Pennridge
Council Rock South
Bishop Shanahan
State College
Wyomissing
Radnor
Indiana Area
LaSalle
Although we've become accustomed to seeing 7:40's and 7:50's galore over the past few years, make no mistake, this is an excellent state championship field.
I've said it all year, and I'm going to stick by it. I don't see Pennridge losing this race at full strength. I give credit to CB West for the times they've thrown down this year, and I think through 3 guys they're actually better than Pennridge, but I think this is Matt Eissler's race to lose. Anderson Dimon just blasted a record-setting 400 at MOC. Luke Eissler has proven he can be a consistent sub 2 guy. Yes, Laatsch and Shields are great 1:59-2:00 pieces for CB West, but I think when you match these teams up, the question becomes, can Luke Fehrman match up against Eissler with maybe a second gap or so on him? And when it comes down to that, naturally, I side with Eissler. I do think this is going to be a great race, but ultimately, I feel comfortable about picking Pennridge for this title.
This will be no two horse race though. Haverford is obviously, on paper, in contention to beat out both these teams. They ran 8:03 at Lehigh, and have 2 guaranteed sub 2 legs in Tomov and Campbell. After that, they have a great pool to pick from of Peetros, Fingerhut, Jack Roth, and even Donnelly.
The rest of the teams that I think have a legitimate chance to somehow win this thing would be Council Rock South and State College. As was discussed by some fellow readers on the last post, it was a bit of a surprise to see CR South opt for just the 4x8 over the DMR. Well clearly, they feel as if they can do some serious damage in this event. And who is to say they couldn't? They have one of the best legs in the field with Collin Ochs, another all-around talented runner in Kutney, and a 2:00-2:01 split type guy in Connor Dickel. I think Kutney could absolutely keep this team around the front of the race on a leadoff leg, and if whoever the fourth leg of this relay is can duplicate a 2:00 ish leg in the middle with Dickel, Ochs could absolutely anchor this relay home in a time well below 8:00.
My other sleepers for the win would be the boys from State College. It should go without saying that this program has proven itself time and time again that it can be a force in the middle distance events regardless of what pieces it has in the beginning of the season. And sure enough, heading into states this weekend, two pieces in Joe Messner and Zach Decarmine have emerged from the shadows. Like CR South, they also have proven 2:01 ish type guys on their middle legs with Marc Allerheiligen and Henry Ballard. While other teams have to prove they're deep enough through four legs, I think the key for State College will be having their new stars rise up to the occasion. Decarmine's 800 from the Carnival converts to a 1:57 high open mark. If the junior can ride this momentum to a 1:55ish split on the anchor, it might be just enough for the boys from Happy Valley to pull off a MASSIVE upset on their home turf.
LaSalle is obviously probably the deepest team here, but I just don't see them having the 1:55 leg or faster to propel them to a victory.
Shanahan is a huge question mark because of how unexpected their 8:09 at MOC, and while having Jonah on anchor will definitely put them towards the front, I think the major lack of experience from a majority of this relay will prohibit them from contending for a win.
On paper, Radnor honestly has all the pieces to contend for a win in this race. I think they'll be in contention for a high medal in this race, I just don't see it all coming together for them to win this whole thing.
Lastly, Indiana Area and Wyomissing are two smaller AA teams that should be applauded for their ability to make it into the fast heat at the state championships. Indiana Area has surprised us before (see XC), and Kendall Brennan has been running great lately, I just don't think they have quite enough firepower to contend for a win in this field. I have pretty much the same to say for Wyomissing.
Predictions:
1. Pennridge 7:53.9
2. Central Bucks West 7:54.8
3. State College 7:56.9
4. Council Rock South 7:57.1
5. Haverford 7:59.0
6. Bishop Shanahan 7:59.4
7. Penncrest 8:03.1
8. LaSalle 8:03.3
9. Radnor 8:03.9
-The RunningHub
Tuesday, February 19, 2019
PTFCA State Championship Predictions: DMR
Well folks, its hard to believe that we've already hit indoor states week! As I'm sure all of you know, the entries dropped this past Sunday, and our fields are assembled. I wanted to kick off our previews/predictions for the state meet with the relays, since I didn't get around to compiling the cutoffs for them before this weekend (you really don't appreciate how much time Etrain put into this until you try pumping out the content at the same rate he did). My hope is to have both relays out by tonight, and then cover the 800, mile, and 3000 over the next two days, and have everything done by Thursday so we can get some great discussion going on the site for the two days or so leading up to the meet. I hope you're all excited for this weekend!
DMR:
Accepted Teams-
1 Central Bucks West 2 Downingtown West
3 Garnet Valley
4 Haverford Township HS 5 LaSalle College High School 6 Lower Merion 7 Mifflin County High School
8 Mount Lebanon
9 Penncrest 10 Radnor
11 Seneca Valley
12 Twin Valley
13 West Chester East
Initial Reactions:
The only team who scratched out of the 12 team field was Council Rock South, allowing Central Bucks West to sneak into the last spot. I'm honestly surprised by this seeing as that the DMR is late in the meet, and CR South's 10:41 was over a month ago, meaning they could've done some serious damage in this race.
This field saw a big last minute shakeup with Mifflin County, Seneca Valley, Mount Lebanon, Garnet Valley, and Penncrest all earning spots in the last weekend of qualifying. The defending champs are in safely, but they sure look a lot more vulnerable this time around than at this point last year.
That TFCAofGP Last Chance Meet DMR ended up being heartbreaking in the way things turned out. In a race that came down to a final kick, with Garnet Valley beating out CB West and CB South by less than a second, that ended up being the difference between making states and being at home. This was a tough break for CB South.
The Race:
This might be the most wide open race at the state level we've had in years. There's only 10-11 seconds separating the entire field, and a lot of these teams haven't run the DMR in several weeks.
The keys to winning the DMR are ideally keeping the relay fresh, and either having one of the best milers in the state, or having such a good 1200-400-800 that your mile leg just has to hold on for dear life (see Ryan James and Cardinal O'Hara a few years back). Well, no team really checks off two boxes. Haverford, CB West, Downingtown West, LaSalle, and Radnor are seemingly going all in on both relays, Harris is supposedly going to try and pull off one of the hardest doubles imaginable (3000/DMR), Seneca Valley has their two biggest pieces doubling, and the teams who DO have big anchors (West Chester East and Mount Lebanon) are having those studs run the open mile.
So who the heck is going to win this thing?
The 1200 leg should be a great battle between guys like Albright, Owori, Brown, Hill, Macknair, and Seiberlich (?). Owori handed off at the front last year next to Jonah in a 3:10-3:11 split, and is by far the most experienced guy in this leg. A key thing to note is that Hill and Sieberlich (possibly) will be the only guy on fresh legs of the names listed above. I don't think there is anyone here with enough firepower to blast something well under 3:10, so if this thing stays slow, I like Hill's odds of closing hard and getting Twin Valley near the front of the race early on. A lot of these guys are milers moving down in distance, while Hill is the opposite. If he can hang in the middle part of the race, he's got the chance to utilize his 800 speed.
The 800 legs will be pretty all over the place. The same goes for this leg as well, where there really aren't any guys who are expected to blast a split way below 2:00. I know Schlegel has gone 1:58ish, and that might be the best split any of these teams have had on a DMR so far this year. I think if Brendan Campbell is on this leg for Haverford, he could drop the quickest split of the day with a 1:56 ish type mark. Tomov is a big wildcard on anchor for me right now, but if Campbell can run as fast as I think he can, Haverford will definitely be in contention to win this on the last leg.
Obviously, it all comes down to the anchor. My prediction is Haverford, LaSalle, Downingtown West, and Twin Valley are hanging around the front at this point, with Mount Lebanon, West Chester East, and Seneca Valley all chasing close behind. The best anchor in this field is obviously Patrick Anderson, it is simply a matter of how close to the front his team can get him. He almost chased down Ketler at the TSTCA champs meet last week, but came up just short. I think this is truly where tired, doubling legs will come into play. I think Chamoun, Twomey, Tomov, and Servis will all be pretty fresh, and will have to run really well to hold off the likes of Ketler, Anderson, and Lewin.
My best guess for this crazy race is that Aidan Tomov is the only one that can hold off a hard charging Patrick Anderson, and Haverford (my preseason pick to win the relay) gets somewhat of an upset gold in the DMR. Lewin and Ketler also track down the front quartet, but tired doubling legs keeps them from breaking into the top 3.
Predictions:
1. Haverford 10:26.98
2. Mount Lebanon 10:28.1
3. LaSalle 10:28.9
4. Downingtown West 10:29.8
5. Seneca Valley 10:31.2
6. Twin Valley 10:33.4
7. West Chester East 10:35.4
8. Mifflin County 10:36.1
DMR:
Accepted Teams-
1 Central Bucks West 2 Downingtown West
3 Garnet Valley
4 Haverford Township HS 5 LaSalle College High School 6 Lower Merion 7 Mifflin County High School
8 Mount Lebanon
9 Penncrest 10 Radnor
11 Seneca Valley
12 Twin Valley
13 West Chester East
Initial Reactions:
The only team who scratched out of the 12 team field was Council Rock South, allowing Central Bucks West to sneak into the last spot. I'm honestly surprised by this seeing as that the DMR is late in the meet, and CR South's 10:41 was over a month ago, meaning they could've done some serious damage in this race.
This field saw a big last minute shakeup with Mifflin County, Seneca Valley, Mount Lebanon, Garnet Valley, and Penncrest all earning spots in the last weekend of qualifying. The defending champs are in safely, but they sure look a lot more vulnerable this time around than at this point last year.
That TFCAofGP Last Chance Meet DMR ended up being heartbreaking in the way things turned out. In a race that came down to a final kick, with Garnet Valley beating out CB West and CB South by less than a second, that ended up being the difference between making states and being at home. This was a tough break for CB South.
The Race:
This might be the most wide open race at the state level we've had in years. There's only 10-11 seconds separating the entire field, and a lot of these teams haven't run the DMR in several weeks.
The keys to winning the DMR are ideally keeping the relay fresh, and either having one of the best milers in the state, or having such a good 1200-400-800 that your mile leg just has to hold on for dear life (see Ryan James and Cardinal O'Hara a few years back). Well, no team really checks off two boxes. Haverford, CB West, Downingtown West, LaSalle, and Radnor are seemingly going all in on both relays, Harris is supposedly going to try and pull off one of the hardest doubles imaginable (3000/DMR), Seneca Valley has their two biggest pieces doubling, and the teams who DO have big anchors (West Chester East and Mount Lebanon) are having those studs run the open mile.
So who the heck is going to win this thing?
The 1200 leg should be a great battle between guys like Albright, Owori, Brown, Hill, Macknair, and Seiberlich (?). Owori handed off at the front last year next to Jonah in a 3:10-3:11 split, and is by far the most experienced guy in this leg. A key thing to note is that Hill and Sieberlich (possibly) will be the only guy on fresh legs of the names listed above. I don't think there is anyone here with enough firepower to blast something well under 3:10, so if this thing stays slow, I like Hill's odds of closing hard and getting Twin Valley near the front of the race early on. A lot of these guys are milers moving down in distance, while Hill is the opposite. If he can hang in the middle part of the race, he's got the chance to utilize his 800 speed.
The 800 legs will be pretty all over the place. The same goes for this leg as well, where there really aren't any guys who are expected to blast a split way below 2:00. I know Schlegel has gone 1:58ish, and that might be the best split any of these teams have had on a DMR so far this year. I think if Brendan Campbell is on this leg for Haverford, he could drop the quickest split of the day with a 1:56 ish type mark. Tomov is a big wildcard on anchor for me right now, but if Campbell can run as fast as I think he can, Haverford will definitely be in contention to win this on the last leg.
Obviously, it all comes down to the anchor. My prediction is Haverford, LaSalle, Downingtown West, and Twin Valley are hanging around the front at this point, with Mount Lebanon, West Chester East, and Seneca Valley all chasing close behind. The best anchor in this field is obviously Patrick Anderson, it is simply a matter of how close to the front his team can get him. He almost chased down Ketler at the TSTCA champs meet last week, but came up just short. I think this is truly where tired, doubling legs will come into play. I think Chamoun, Twomey, Tomov, and Servis will all be pretty fresh, and will have to run really well to hold off the likes of Ketler, Anderson, and Lewin.
My best guess for this crazy race is that Aidan Tomov is the only one that can hold off a hard charging Patrick Anderson, and Haverford (my preseason pick to win the relay) gets somewhat of an upset gold in the DMR. Lewin and Ketler also track down the front quartet, but tired doubling legs keeps them from breaking into the top 3.
Predictions:
1. Haverford 10:26.98
2. Mount Lebanon 10:28.1
3. LaSalle 10:28.9
4. Downingtown West 10:29.8
5. Seneca Valley 10:31.2
6. Twin Valley 10:33.4
7. West Chester East 10:35.4
8. Mifflin County 10:36.1
Wednesday, February 13, 2019
PTFCA State Championship Standards (3000)
Welcome back everybody! I was planning on publishing the rest of the state cutoffs this weekend, but with all the big meets going on, it just made sense to wait until after all those results were in and published. The 3000 picture is one that is coming down to just fractions of seconds right around the 9:00 barrier. Naturally, TSTCA and TFCAofGP championships this weekend will likely give these rankings one last shakeup, but here they are!
3000 (SQS: 8:59.23/8:58.43) Number of acceptances: 12
Takeaways:
-Obviously, Kinne asserted himself as the favorite this weekend. With the resume he has, it was really only a matter of time until he dropped a mark that put him far ahead of the rest of the field. Can't see him losing this race.
-The only scratch I project is Sewall, which would be for the DMR.
-With Kuhn scratching the mile in my projections, I'm predicting this 4x800/3000 double
-If anyone is going to challenge Kinne, look for Jack Miller.
The ** indicates times that were full two mile times, while * denotes 3200's. The 3200's get 35sec, while full two miles get 38sec.
This list was definitely more complicated, so if you see any mistakes please let me know!
Rank Name School Time Converted Date Scratch?
1 Zach Kinne North Allegheny 8:41.22O 8:41.22 2/9/19
5 Jeffrey Love George School 8:53.61 8:52.81 2/9/19
6 Patrick Theveny Penncrest 9:31.14B** 8:53.14 1/26/19
7 Jack Miller Jenkintown 8:53.33B 8:53.33 1/12/19
8 Andrew Foster Ephrata 9:31.92B** 8:53.92 1/19/19
9 Andrew Healey Holy Cross 8:54.93B 8:54.93 1/12/19
10 Payton Sewall DT West 8:57.41B 8:57.41 1/12/19 Y
11 Dan McGoey North Allegheny 8:57.86O 8:57.86 2/9/19
12 Ben Kuhn Wyomissing Area 8:58.36B 8:58.36 1/5/19
13 Dalton Kalbaugh Shaler 9:00.36O 9:00.36 1/25/19
14 Luke Klingenberg Cumb. Valley 9:02.06 9:01.26 2/9/19
15 Mitchell Rome Dallas 9:02.30O 9:01.50 1/12/19
16 Alex Shaw Upper Saint Clair 9:01.86O 9:01.86 1/25/19
3000 (SQS: 8:59.23/8:58.43) Number of acceptances: 12
Takeaways:
-Obviously, Kinne asserted himself as the favorite this weekend. With the resume he has, it was really only a matter of time until he dropped a mark that put him far ahead of the rest of the field. Can't see him losing this race.
-The only scratch I project is Sewall, which would be for the DMR.
-With Kuhn scratching the mile in my projections, I'm predicting this 4x800/3000 double
-If anyone is going to challenge Kinne, look for Jack Miller.
The ** indicates times that were full two mile times, while * denotes 3200's. The 3200's get 35sec, while full two miles get 38sec.
This list was definitely more complicated, so if you see any mistakes please let me know!
Rank Name School Time Converted Date Scratch?
1 Zach Kinne North Allegheny 8:41.22O 8:41.22 2/9/19
2 Ian Miller Manheim Township 8:50.06 8:49.26 2/9/19
3 Zach Leachman Mars Area 9:26.36O* 8:51.36 2/10/19
4 Brayden Harris Mifflin County 8:51.73B 8:51.73 1/5/195 Jeffrey Love George School 8:53.61 8:52.81 2/9/19
6 Patrick Theveny Penncrest 9:31.14B** 8:53.14 1/26/19
7 Jack Miller Jenkintown 8:53.33B 8:53.33 1/12/19
8 Andrew Foster Ephrata 9:31.92B** 8:53.92 1/19/19
9 Andrew Healey Holy Cross 8:54.93B 8:54.93 1/12/19
10 Payton Sewall DT West 8:57.41B 8:57.41 1/12/19 Y
11 Dan McGoey North Allegheny 8:57.86O 8:57.86 2/9/19
12 Ben Kuhn Wyomissing Area 8:58.36B 8:58.36 1/5/19
13 Dalton Kalbaugh Shaler 9:00.36O 9:00.36 1/25/19
14 Luke Klingenberg Cumb. Valley 9:02.06 9:01.26 2/9/19
15 Mitchell Rome Dallas 9:02.30O 9:01.50 1/12/19
16 Alex Shaw Upper Saint Clair 9:01.86O 9:01.86 1/25/19
Friday, February 8, 2019
PTFCA State Championship Standards (Mile)
Hey all! Here is the next event cutoffs for our state meet in just a few short weeks! Having just finished this list, I did go in and adjust for Chayce Macknair's really solid 4:23 last night at State College. With a pretty empty day tomorrow, my hope is to have the 3k, 4x8, and DMR out tomorrow as well. If you get a chance to read them, understand that they're likely changing very quickly with the Carnival and other meets going down tomorrow. Best of luck to everybody who is fighting for one of these last spots as we enter the postseason!
Mile (SQS: 4:32.43/4:31.73) Number of acceptances: 20
Quick takeaways:
-Over the past few years, we've seen a ridiculous amount of scratches in the mile, because people can get pulled away from really any of the other four distance events. Now that I'm the one making the lists, I realized how hard it was to call out who is scratching and who is running.
-I see Zeh opting for a relay/800 double, while I think Miller takes his talents to the 3000
-Lewin and Tomov are guys who could very well double, but are both on relays with potential to win gold, so my guess is both opt out
-Pretty much the same thought process for Chamoun and Sieberlich
-Kuhn is a toughie. I think he has the potential to be a major darkhorse, but with a sub 9 3000 and a sub 8:10 4x8, my guess is he scratches
-Truthfully, there's actually a slight chance that this list falls back a couple spots. My guess is because we haven't seen a massive DMR yet out west, a lot of those teams are going to absolutely load up this weekend. I didn't scratch a single Seneca Valley (Ketler was, but he could go either way if they do go open events), Greensburg Salem, Mount Lebanon, or North Allegheny guy, which makes up 8 names on the list. One quick race this weekend could end up scratching 5 or so more guys off this list.
Rank Name School Time Converted Date Scratch?
1 Tyler Shue Ephrata 4:20.76B 4:20.76 1/19/2019
2 Tyler Wirth Wallenpaupack 4:21.62B 4:21.62 1/19/2019
3 Vincent Twomey LaSalle 4:21.88B 4:21.88 1/26/2019
4 Jonah Powell Grove City 4:22.87O 4:22.87 1/25/2019
5 Chayce Macknair Mifflin County 4:23.41B 4:23.41 2/7/2019
6 Ethan Zeh Radnor 4:23.45B 4:23.45 1/5/2019 Y
7 Cameron Binda Greensburg Salem 4:23.82O 4:23.82 2/2/2019
8 Jack Miller Jenkintown 4:24.07B 4:24.07 1/26/2019 Y
9 Patrick Anderson Mount Lebanon 4:24.12O 4:24.12 1/25/2019
10 Josh Lewin West Chester East 4:24.31B 4:24.31 1/12/2019 Y
11 Aidan Tomov Haverford 4:25.32B 4:25.32 1/26/2019 Y
12 Dylan Binda Greensburg Salem 4:25.68O 4:25.68 2/2/2019
13 Jack Seiberlich LaSalle 4:26.03B 4:26.03 1/26/2019 Y
14 Joe Chamoun Downingtown West 4:26.13B 4:26.13 1/26/2019 Y
15 Ben Kuhn Wyomissing Area 4:26.96 4:26.26 12/22/2018 Y
16 Jonah Hoey Bishop Shanahan 4:26.41B 4:26.41 2/4/2019
17 Zachary Kinne North Allegheny 4:26.66O 4:26.66 1/25/2019
18 Nate Grucelski Conestoga Valley 4:27.65B 4:27.65 1/5/2019
19 Collin Ochs Council Rock South 4:28.47 4:27.77 1/26/2019 Y
20 Mark Brown Greensburg Salem 4:27.90O 4:27.90 2/2/2019
21 Cole Walker Unionville 4:28.83 4:28.13 12/8/2018
22 Connor Shields Warwick 4:29.03 4:28.33 1/26/2019
23 Christian McComb Boyertown 4:29.56 4:28.86 12/8/2018
24 Seth Ketler Seneca Valley 4:29.30B 4:29.30 1/19/2019 Y
25 Sam Owori Seneca Valley 4:29.36B 4:29.36 1/19/2019
26 Brayden Harris Mifflin County 4:29.44B 4:29.44 1/5/2019 Y
27 Frank Brown Radnor 4:29.50B 4:29.50 1/5/2019 Y
28 Connor Volk-Klos Seneca Valley 4:29.59O 4:29.59 1/25/2019
29 Jack Wisner Carlisle 4:30.71 4:30.01 1/27/2019
30 Alex Shaw Upper Saint Clair 4:30.13O 4:30.13 2/2/2019
Mile (SQS: 4:32.43/4:31.73) Number of acceptances: 20
Quick takeaways:
-Over the past few years, we've seen a ridiculous amount of scratches in the mile, because people can get pulled away from really any of the other four distance events. Now that I'm the one making the lists, I realized how hard it was to call out who is scratching and who is running.
-I see Zeh opting for a relay/800 double, while I think Miller takes his talents to the 3000
-Lewin and Tomov are guys who could very well double, but are both on relays with potential to win gold, so my guess is both opt out
-Pretty much the same thought process for Chamoun and Sieberlich
-Kuhn is a toughie. I think he has the potential to be a major darkhorse, but with a sub 9 3000 and a sub 8:10 4x8, my guess is he scratches
-Truthfully, there's actually a slight chance that this list falls back a couple spots. My guess is because we haven't seen a massive DMR yet out west, a lot of those teams are going to absolutely load up this weekend. I didn't scratch a single Seneca Valley (Ketler was, but he could go either way if they do go open events), Greensburg Salem, Mount Lebanon, or North Allegheny guy, which makes up 8 names on the list. One quick race this weekend could end up scratching 5 or so more guys off this list.
Rank Name School Time Converted Date Scratch?
1 Tyler Shue Ephrata 4:20.76B 4:20.76 1/19/2019
2 Tyler Wirth Wallenpaupack 4:21.62B 4:21.62 1/19/2019
3 Vincent Twomey LaSalle 4:21.88B 4:21.88 1/26/2019
4 Jonah Powell Grove City 4:22.87O 4:22.87 1/25/2019
5 Chayce Macknair Mifflin County 4:23.41B 4:23.41 2/7/2019
6 Ethan Zeh Radnor 4:23.45B 4:23.45 1/5/2019 Y
7 Cameron Binda Greensburg Salem 4:23.82O 4:23.82 2/2/2019
8 Jack Miller Jenkintown 4:24.07B 4:24.07 1/26/2019 Y
9 Patrick Anderson Mount Lebanon 4:24.12O 4:24.12 1/25/2019
10 Josh Lewin West Chester East 4:24.31B 4:24.31 1/12/2019 Y
11 Aidan Tomov Haverford 4:25.32B 4:25.32 1/26/2019 Y
12 Dylan Binda Greensburg Salem 4:25.68O 4:25.68 2/2/2019
13 Jack Seiberlich LaSalle 4:26.03B 4:26.03 1/26/2019 Y
14 Joe Chamoun Downingtown West 4:26.13B 4:26.13 1/26/2019 Y
15 Ben Kuhn Wyomissing Area 4:26.96 4:26.26 12/22/2018 Y
16 Jonah Hoey Bishop Shanahan 4:26.41B 4:26.41 2/4/2019
17 Zachary Kinne North Allegheny 4:26.66O 4:26.66 1/25/2019
18 Nate Grucelski Conestoga Valley 4:27.65B 4:27.65 1/5/2019
19 Collin Ochs Council Rock South 4:28.47 4:27.77 1/26/2019 Y
20 Mark Brown Greensburg Salem 4:27.90O 4:27.90 2/2/2019
21 Cole Walker Unionville 4:28.83 4:28.13 12/8/2018
22 Connor Shields Warwick 4:29.03 4:28.33 1/26/2019
23 Christian McComb Boyertown 4:29.56 4:28.86 12/8/2018
24 Seth Ketler Seneca Valley 4:29.30B 4:29.30 1/19/2019 Y
25 Sam Owori Seneca Valley 4:29.36B 4:29.36 1/19/2019
26 Brayden Harris Mifflin County 4:29.44B 4:29.44 1/5/2019 Y
27 Frank Brown Radnor 4:29.50B 4:29.50 1/5/2019 Y
28 Connor Volk-Klos Seneca Valley 4:29.59O 4:29.59 1/25/2019
29 Jack Wisner Carlisle 4:30.71 4:30.01 1/27/2019
30 Alex Shaw Upper Saint Clair 4:30.13O 4:30.13 2/2/2019
Wednesday, February 6, 2019
PTFCA State Championship Standards (800m)
800 meters (SQS: 2:00.23/1:59.63) Number of Acceptances: 20
Here it is! The first list of official state rankings!
*If you are having difficulty viewing the list on the mobile version, my best advice is just flip
your orientation to landscape and that will pretty much fix it. It should look cleanest on a laptop or tablet. Sorry for not being tech savvy*
My initial thoughts:
-There aren't nearly as many scratches as I thought there would be, but the cutoff still sits above 2:00 for now. With two weeks left, I think we'll see this get down to our typical 1:59.4-1:59.8 range.
-I scratched the LaSalle and Twin Valley guys because I just see them putting all their focus on the DMR, even though the double is doable. I see guys like Eissler, Fehrman, and Zeh all doubling back from the 4x8 which is much earlier in the day.
-I was excited to see Dabi Chanez dip under 2:00 earlier this week at the Armory. He's a name who I think has a lot of raw speed (see Bensalem 4x4) and could keep that first heat really honest.
Rank Name School Time Converted Date Scratch?
1 David Endres Central Bucks East 1:55.19B 1:55.19 1/26/2019
2 Matt Eissler Pennridge 1:55.48B 1:55.48 1/26/2019
3 Seth Ketler Seneca Valley 1:56.24O 1:56.24 2/2/2019
4 Jonah Hoey Bishop Shanahan 1:56.38B 1:56.38 12/28/2018
5 Ethan Zeh Radnor 1:56.67B 1:56.67 1/26/2019
6 Eric Albright Garnet Valley 1:56.86B 1:56.86 1/26/2019
7 Jarrett Zelinksy HG Prep 1:57.39B 1:57.39 1/26/2019
8 Collin Ochs CR South 1:58.13 1:57.53 12/22/2018
9 Luke Fehrman CB West 1:57.69B 1:57.69 1/26/2019
10 Dylan Servis Twin Valley 1:57.95B 1:57.95 1/26/2019 Y
11 Jonah Powell Grove City 1:58.35O 1:58.35 2/2/2019 Y
12 Brendan Campbell Haverford 1:58.88B 1:58.88 1/26/2019 Y
13 CJ Thimons Highlands 1:59.02O 1:59.02 1/5/2019
14 Ricky Raup Saint Joseph's Prep 1:59.75 1:59.15 1/5/2019
15 Trey Hill Twin Valley 1:59.37B 1:59.37 1/26/2019 Y
16 Mac Costonis LaSalle 1:59.52B 1:59.52 1/26/2019 Y
17 Elias Zajicek Chartiers Valley 1:59.57O 1:59.57 2/2/2019
18 Zach Decarmine State College 2:00.33 1:59.73 1/27/2019
19 Dabi Chanez Bensalem 1:59.84B 1:59.84 2/4/2019
20 Chris Hess Upper Saint Clair 1:59.88O 1:59.88 2/2/2019
21 Joey Power Spring Ford 2:00.70 2:00.10 1/6/2019
22 Ryan Doherty Bishop Shanahan 2:00.12B 2:00.12 2/4/2019
23 Kevin Haas Blue Mountain 2:00.14B 2:00.14 1/5/2019
24 Jack Balick Abington Friends 2:00.93 2:00.33 2/2/2019
25 Josiah Taylor Wyomissing Area 2:00.40B 2:00.40 1/5/2019
26 Tyler Wirth Wallenpaupack 2:01.40 2:00.80 1/4/2019 Y
27 Luke O'Malley Radnor 2:01.41 2:00.81 2/2/2019 Y
28 Michael Eastmond LaSalle 2:00.91B 2:00.91 1/26/2019 Y
Here it is! The first list of official state rankings!
*If you are having difficulty viewing the list on the mobile version, my best advice is just flip
your orientation to landscape and that will pretty much fix it. It should look cleanest on a laptop or tablet. Sorry for not being tech savvy*
My initial thoughts:
-There aren't nearly as many scratches as I thought there would be, but the cutoff still sits above 2:00 for now. With two weeks left, I think we'll see this get down to our typical 1:59.4-1:59.8 range.
-I scratched the LaSalle and Twin Valley guys because I just see them putting all their focus on the DMR, even though the double is doable. I see guys like Eissler, Fehrman, and Zeh all doubling back from the 4x8 which is much earlier in the day.
-I was excited to see Dabi Chanez dip under 2:00 earlier this week at the Armory. He's a name who I think has a lot of raw speed (see Bensalem 4x4) and could keep that first heat really honest.
Rank Name School Time Converted Date Scratch?
1 David Endres Central Bucks East 1:55.19B 1:55.19 1/26/2019
2 Matt Eissler Pennridge 1:55.48B 1:55.48 1/26/2019
3 Seth Ketler Seneca Valley 1:56.24O 1:56.24 2/2/2019
4 Jonah Hoey Bishop Shanahan 1:56.38B 1:56.38 12/28/2018
5 Ethan Zeh Radnor 1:56.67B 1:56.67 1/26/2019
6 Eric Albright Garnet Valley 1:56.86B 1:56.86 1/26/2019
7 Jarrett Zelinksy HG Prep 1:57.39B 1:57.39 1/26/2019
8 Collin Ochs CR South 1:58.13 1:57.53 12/22/2018
9 Luke Fehrman CB West 1:57.69B 1:57.69 1/26/2019
10 Dylan Servis Twin Valley 1:57.95B 1:57.95 1/26/2019 Y
11 Jonah Powell Grove City 1:58.35O 1:58.35 2/2/2019 Y
12 Brendan Campbell Haverford 1:58.88B 1:58.88 1/26/2019 Y
13 CJ Thimons Highlands 1:59.02O 1:59.02 1/5/2019
14 Ricky Raup Saint Joseph's Prep 1:59.75 1:59.15 1/5/2019
15 Trey Hill Twin Valley 1:59.37B 1:59.37 1/26/2019 Y
16 Mac Costonis LaSalle 1:59.52B 1:59.52 1/26/2019 Y
17 Elias Zajicek Chartiers Valley 1:59.57O 1:59.57 2/2/2019
18 Zach Decarmine State College 2:00.33 1:59.73 1/27/2019
19 Dabi Chanez Bensalem 1:59.84B 1:59.84 2/4/2019
20 Chris Hess Upper Saint Clair 1:59.88O 1:59.88 2/2/2019
21 Joey Power Spring Ford 2:00.70 2:00.10 1/6/2019
22 Ryan Doherty Bishop Shanahan 2:00.12B 2:00.12 2/4/2019
23 Kevin Haas Blue Mountain 2:00.14B 2:00.14 1/5/2019
24 Jack Balick Abington Friends 2:00.93 2:00.33 2/2/2019
25 Josiah Taylor Wyomissing Area 2:00.40B 2:00.40 1/5/2019
26 Tyler Wirth Wallenpaupack 2:01.40 2:00.80 1/4/2019 Y
27 Luke O'Malley Radnor 2:01.41 2:00.81 2/2/2019 Y
28 Michael Eastmond LaSalle 2:00.91B 2:00.91 1/26/2019 Y
Monday, February 4, 2019
Jiminy Cricket's Latest Top 50 Rankings
Hey guys! I literally just posted my last recap post about 5 minutes ago, so don't think this is the only new content out right now! Check it out below this post.
Jiminy Cricket's latest rankings are out! I must apologize, his list slipped right past my eyes, and its from a couple days back, so take that into account if you have any questions or concerns based on his rankings.
Like I said, keep your eyes on the site for a state cutoffs post coming within the week. Enjoy the list below, which I'm super grateful for from Mr. Cricket.
**Oh and also, within the 5 minutes of these two posts, I checked Twitter to see that Downingtown West just dropped a PA #1 10:36 DMR. How's that to start off our week??**
Indoor Track Top 50
Week #2 (1-30-19)
Honorable Mention: Saabir Ali (Overbrook/Senior)- District 1; Jakolby Fackler (Palmyra/Sophomore)- District 3; CJ Thimons (Highlands/Junior)- District 7; Brendan Colwell (Penns Valley/Sophomore)- District 6; Tyler Clifford (Perkiomen Valley/Junior)- District 1
- Alex Shaw (Upper St. Clair/Junior)- District 7 (NR)
- Mitchell Rome (Dallas/Senior)- District 2 (NR)
- Mark Brown (Greensburg Salem/Senior)- District 7 (-12)
- Connor Volk-Klos (Seneca Valley/Senior)- District 7 (NR)
- Christian Fitch (Fox Chapel/Junior)- District 7 (-21)
- Frank Brown (Radnor/Junior)- District 1 (+1)
- Dalton Kalbaugh (Shaler/Junior)- District 7 (NR)
- Joey Bujdos (Indiana/Senior)- District 7 (NR)
- Luke Klingenberg (Cumberland Valley/Senior)- District 3 (-3)
- Dylan Servis (Twin Valley/Senior)- District 3 (NR)
- Robert DiDonato (Germantown Academy/Sophomore)- Independent (-6)
- Brandan Knepper (Mechanicsburg/Senior)- District 3 (NR)
- Christian McComb (Boyertown/Junior)- District 1 (-20)
- Cameron Binda (Greensburg Salem/Senior)- District 7 (-5)
- Brendan Campbell (Haverford/Senior)- District 1 (+14)
- Sam Owori (Seneca Valley/Senior)- District 7 (-16)
- Joseph Chamoun (DT West/Senior)- District 1 (NR)
- Luke Fehrman (CB West/Senior)- District 1 (NR)
- Ian Miller (Manheim Township/Senior)- District 3 (-12)
- Payton Sewall (DT West/Senior)- District 1 (+16)
- Jarett Zelinsky (Holy Ghost Prep/Senior)- District 1 (-4)
- Cole Walker (Unionville/Junior)- District 1 (-14)
- Seth Ketler (Seneca Valley/Senior)- District 7 (-6)
- Jack Wisner (Carlisle/Senior)- District 3 (+6)
- Jack Seiberlich (LaSalle/Senior)- District 12 (+16)
- Andrew Healey (Holy Cross/Junior)- District 2 (+12)
- Chayce Macknair (Mifflin County/Senior)- District 6 (-1)
- Nathan Grucelski (Conestoga Valley/Senior)- District 3 (-6)
- Dan McGoey (North Allegheny/Junior)- District 7 (-13)
- Connor Shields (Warwick/Senior)- District 3 (+7)
- Patrick Theveny (Penncrest/Junior)- District 1 (+4)
- Joshua Lewin (WC East/Junior)- District 1 (+22)
- Zachary Leachman (Mars/Junior)- District 7 (+25)
- Eric Albright (Garnet Valley/Sophomore)- District 1 (+23)
- Ben Kuhn (Wyomissing/Junior)- District 3 (-3)
- Andrew Foster (Ephrata/Senior)- District 3 (+16)
- Aiden Tomov (Haverford/Senior)- District 1 (-2)
- David Endres (CB East/Senior)- District 1 (+16)
- Vincent Twomey (LaSalle/Junior)- District 12 (+9)
- Collin Ochs (CR South/Senior)- District 1 (+0)
- Jonah Hoey (Bishop Shanahan/Junior)- District 1 (-8)
- Jack Miller (Jenkintown/Senior)- District 1 (+7)
- Tyler Wirth (Wallenpaupack/Senior)- District 2 (+0)
- Matt Eissler (Pennridge/Senior)- District 1 (-2)
- Brayden Harris (Mifflin County/Sophomore)- District 6 (-2)
- Jonah Powell (Grove City/Senior)- District 10 (+5)
- Ethan Zeh (Radnor/Senior)- District 1 (+3)
- Zach Kinne (North Allegheny/Senior)- District 7 (-2)
- Tyler Shue (Ephrata/Junior)- District 3 (+12)
- Patrick Anderson (Mount Lebanon/Junior)- District 7 (+2)
Notes:
- The parentheses indicate how much the runner moved since my last rankings. A (+) sign means they moved “up” the rankings (toward the #1 spot) and a (-) sign means toward #50.
- I decided to take off everyone who hasn’t run yet. This includes some big names like Baublitz, Lewis, and Dorenkamp. Hopefully these guys make their debuts soon.
- I had a very tough time figuring out a #1. I defaulted to Anderson, the state champ who opened up with a 4:24. You could probably make a case for anyone in the top 10.
- Again, I try to reward versatility and who is running well right now. This way the list doesn’t just turn out to be a carbon copy of the state leaderboard.
-Jiminy Cricket
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