D1 A: (Team Spots:1/Individual Spots:5)
1st-Jenkintown
1-Jack Miller
2-Carter Geer
3-Pat Wagner
4-Luke Miller
5-Travis Geer
6-Aiden Michell
7-Sanjay George
8-Jack Samms
9-Matt Visomirski
10-Matthew Birch
11-Ian Harrington
12-Phillip Rogers
D1 AA: (Team Spots:1/Individual Spots:5)
1st-Pope John Paul II
2nd-Pottsgrove
1-Jack Brosius
2-Shane Cohen
3-Shane Coll
4-Jack Phillips
5-LaRee Hills
6-Simon Keen
7-Kaden Buchler
8-Christian Kruse
D1 AAA: (Team Spots:6/Individual Spots:30)
On paper, after spending a lot of time with this one, I think I feel comfortable with my six teams. After a lot of time looking this up and down, I think these six teams, for various reasons, from a really good low stick to having a very reliable group of 5, are the best 6 teams for me to pick.
Obviously, its going to be way crazier, and this is going to be horribly wrong, but eh, I tried. Dwest was honestly one of the harder parts with this one. I truthfully meant to have Barnhill further up, but I decided to stick with it. I don't think Dwest is in any danger of losing, but if they run like they did at Manhattan (which is the lean I took here), I think its going to be close. Especially now that I have this all down on paper, I think Unionville is a 5th man away from winning this thing. Since I know this is going to cause some drama, I'll give you my reasons for the why I left out the teams I did.
OJR- Figured I might take some heat for this, but I leaned towards it. I don't think they have that much firepower up behind Lantz, and anytime you don't have low sticks in this meet, you need to cut your scoring off fast, and I just don't think this team is quite deep enough to sneak in, though it'll be close.
WCE-Big wildcard here. They ran well at Chesmonts, but there's some big questions around this team. Lewin is up and down, and when he races poorly, its usually a quick drop off. While the team is very tight, I think this group of guys is pretty far back from Lewin. If it all comes together tomorrow, I think they make it at 4th or so. Just a lot of shakiness from this team, and even more importantly, even when you have your bad days, they still need to be at least decent results. WCE lost to North Penn at Manhattan.
Methacton/Central Bucks East- Once I got here, it was pretty easy. On paper, both teams are extremely well-balanced, but I just don't think they have it. Whether it just be a pure lack of firepower (Methacton), or some major consistency issues (Central Bucks East), I think these teams, along with North Penn, are going to be short of Hershey. But we will see. Soon.
I also want to apologize, I was hoping to have this mini analysis for all my district previews, but the end of the week really snuck up on me, and before I knew it, I was typing up predictions the mornings before these meets started. I wanted to prioritize getting them out to you. With some downtime, I should have the weekend district meet previews out tomorrow with some time to discuss before Saturday. Thanks for your understanding and cooperation!
1st-Downingtown West = 120 or so
2nd-Haverford= 140 or so
3rd-Unionville= 170 or so
4th-Great Valley= 200 or so
5th-Council Rock South=200 or so
6th-Lower Merion=210 or so
7th-Owen J Roberts=275 or so
8th-West Chester East=275 or so
9th-Methacton
10th-Central Bucks East
1-Christian McComb
2-Cole Walker
3-Payton Sewall
4-Noah Demis
5-Jonah Hoey
6-Mike Donnelly
7-Josh Lewin
8-Joey Litvin
9-Jason Cornelison
10-Patrick Theveny
11-Ethan McIntyre
12-Linus Blatz
13-Jack McManus
14-Collin Ochs
15-Evan Peetros
16-Seth Hoffritz
17-Kyle Kutney
18-Isaac Valderrabano
19-Charlie Hermann
20-Cole Driver
21-Calvin Pash
22-Matt Varghese
23-Samir Razi
24-Tyler Clifford
25-Andrew Gillespie
26-Aidan Tomov
27-Riley Casey
28-Nick Rhodes
29-James Conway
30-Brendan Duff
31-Devon Comber
32-Aidan Barnhill
33-Kevin Wagner
34-David Brunton
35-Solomon Thistle
36-Joe Mazza
37-Joe Chamoun
38-Christopher Sears
39-Ethan Zeh
40-Gavin Maxwell
41-Evan Campbell
42-Hayden Coates
43-Brendan Campbell
44-Rahman Mohammed
45-Ethan Saville
46-Ben Datte
47-David Endres
48-Luke Cimakasky
49-Josh Fingerhut
50-John Zawislak
51-Benjamin Klinger
52-Shane Goldman
53-Vikas Miller
54-Luke Miles
55-Luke Talham
56-Jalen Chin
57-Tyler Daley
Apologize? Not necessary at all. Thanks for the blog!
ReplyDeleteYeah I think the Dwest guys are going to be way higher, but I can see how they're a little vulnerable to dropping after Manhattan. Other than that though, I can tell this is a really well thought out list. Good mix of all leagues. Man I can't wait. For a year where both the individual and team firepower is a little lackluster up front, I don't know the last time we had a team race this deep. I think there are going to be some fun surprises. Good luck to all.
ReplyDelete1. DTW
ReplyDelete2. CRS
3. Haverford
4. GV
5. CBE
6. LM
7. OJR
8. Unionville
9. NP
10. WCE
Teams 5 to 10 will be closed
1. DTW-easy win
Delete2. CRS-this team is good
3. Haverford
4. GV
5. CBE- I think they put it together.
6. LM
7. OJR
8. Unionville - 5th man a huge question mark
9. NP
10. WCE too inconsistent
Another very competitive D1, at least 10 teams with a great shot at getting to states. A very tough one to predict but always fun to try.
ReplyDeleteDTW should take the top spot comfortably, even if Haverford has a huge day the DTW depth should cover if one or two guys are a little bit off. After DTW and Haverford it's anyone's guess. CRS is looking real solid, they could even sneak into 2nd if all run well. Unionville I like a lot because of the low sticks. Conway had a nice bounce back from Chesmonts at the Henderson Invite. They need someone to step up a drop in their 5 spot and they have 3 guys all capable of getting it done. Walker is my pick to win it the race.
D1 is always so crowded and with so many teams equal it's probably going to be the guys who pick up 10 seconds in the 16:40 - 17:10 range that are the ones that will get their teams to states. CBE has a big group in that range a I'm guessing they'll run as a solid pack and come through.
I was really struggling to put North Penn or Lower Merion in the 6 spot but just couldn't keep OJR out of my top 6 guess. NP, WCE, LM, Methacton and GV could all make my predictions look real bad. It should be a great day!
1) Downingtown West
2) Haverford
3) Council Rock South
4) Unionville
5) Central Bucks East
6) Owen J. Roberts
- RJJL
CB East making it through? RJJL you're better than this cmon now
DeleteProbably his alma mater.
DeleteDTW
Hvrfd
CRS
OJR
GV
WCE
NP
Meth
CBE
WCH
Lol RJJL strikes again! CB East moving on!
DeleteIn the future I'm just gonna copy RJJL's predictions. Did not see CB East having that kind of day!
Delete-Yifter
6 out of 6 plus picking Walker to win? I want this RJJL guy to pick some lottery numbers for me.
Delete1. Haverford - With the 5 point upset, they're on a roll
ReplyDelete2. Dwest - tend to struggle on the big stage
3. CRS
4. NP
5. OJR
6. WCE
Copy and pasting from the other thread
ReplyDelete1. DT West
2. Haverford
3. Unionville
4. Great Valley
5. CR South
6. OJR
7. Lower Merion
8. WC East
-Yifter
I don't know how I forgot NA. I meant to put them 2nd but it voids my whole list
Delete-Yifter
Oh wait these are D1 predictions, I wash trying to look at my State predictions lol I'm an idiot
DeleteChesmont league dominated, 6 teams in the top 12. 11 runners in the top 25.
ReplyDeleteDTW looks like the front runner for states now.
DeleteThey are definitely in the running. But, I find it hard to think they would beat the 18 sec spread LS had between their top 5. Even more impressive was the 33 second spread 1 thru 7 with the last runner being still 15 seconds BELOW 17 min on Belmont. Knowing that something can always go wrong at States, I tend to lean toward the team that has 7 runners that close together in time. Could you imagine if DTW and LS take the top 2 spots and make it to the medal stand and NA does not? It is going to be a great race.
DeleteJenkintown would have held their own in AAA.
ReplyDeleteJack Miller likely would have won the AAA race, and their 2-5 would likely have also dropped significant time in a bigger race, I wonder if they would have qualified out of AAA. Very impressive times for a small school.
DeleteIt's fair to wonder if this is the best A team the state has ever seen? We can only go back to 2012, so there's not a lot of teams to compare. Still, there are only three other teams in contention:
Delete2013 Saegertown
60 points, 17:01-17:05-17:16-17:35-17:42, 8th in unofficial results merge
2016 Winchester Thurston
62 points, 16:33-16:42-17:02-17:35-17:35, 7th in unofficial results merge
2017 Penns Valley
68 points, 16:48-16:55-17:02-17:10-17:37, probably ~12th in unofficial results merge (none was provided)
Certainly they are the best through 4. WT in 2016 had 3 in the top 15, but their 4 was right around 50th. Jenkintown could have their whole front 4 on the medal stand. I guess their 5th man might bring them down a bit, but that is completely understandable for a small school team. With all the attention that will be on the AAA race, let's not overlook how historic of a team Jenkintown might be.
-Jiminy Cricket
^Somehow I overlooked that last year's Penns Valley squad did indeed have 4 individual medalists. So they probably hold the distinction for best class A top 4. I still believe that Jenkintown can/will surpass that. Just wanted to provide some clarification.
Delete-Jiminy Cricket
I'm headed back to watch the state meet this year and haven't been since they reconfigured the course 2-3 years back. What is the best place nowadays to watch the action?
ReplyDelete