Hey everybody! I know things are a little slow right now, but don't fret, spring kicks off this weekend! Be sure to check out my rising stars post that went up last week, as it highlights some of the youngsters who had killer indoor and XC seasons this year, and should be on your radar for the spring.
I thought about just doing some AAA previews, but I felt it was getting to be redundant mentioning the same names (Eissler, Hoey, Shue, Kinne, etc.) so I thought it would be cool to put a spotlight on some of the AA guys as we head into the season.
Before I get into that though, speaking of Kinne, how about a PA #2 all time 14:38 5k down in Texas? He isn't quite what Affolder was a couple years ago, but I think he's going to run faster than Rusty did outdoor, and he's truly just an all-around special distance talent.
Lets talk small schools!
With a great class of guys like Jihad, Forsythe, Leeser, and Brenden Miler graduated, there will be new state champs in every distance event this spring. However, despite all of last year's champs having graduated, most of the depth/medalists in the 1600 and 3200 from last year do return.
The 800 is by far the most wide open event on this list. The top 4 finishers, and 8 of the top 12 finalists from last year's race were all seniors. The top returner from the state race is Seneca's Jake Schneider, who ran 1:58.26 to finish 5th last year. The current senior had a solid indoor season, running 2:02. He only ran 2:07 indoor last year before his outdoor season last year, so will we see a 1:55-1:56 mark and a fight for the state title from Schneider?
Of course, a lot of this comes down to what Jonah Powell decides to do. Doubling or not, I just think Powell is a class above everyone else in AA this year. I think he has a 1:52-1:53 in him fresh, and because the AA 800 field is a little weaker than usual this year, I do think Powell could cruise a 1:55 and win double gold.
Aside from Schneider, if there's anyone I think who could actually challenge Powell, its Quaker Valley's Dan Ford. He struggled at the state meet, but his 1:58.55 at the PTFCA Carnival is truly a really, really good race. It converts to 1:57.95, and puts him not all that far off of Powell. This year has been full of breakthroughs for Ford, and he's only a junior. I think he is also someone who has 1:55 potential in the right race, and I think if anyone has a chance to stun a doubling Powell, its this kid right here.
Other returning medalists from last year's AA 800 final include Sebastian Brudnicki (7th, 1:59.67) and Josh Yourish (8th, 1:59.72). Yourish had a solid indoor season where he ran 2:01, and while we really didn't see Brudnicki this winter, he was only a sophomore last year, so he has loads of upside.
Ethan Knoebel ran 1:58 last year, but struggled at the state meet after an impressive 1600 performance. Because of an expectation of continued focus on the 16, Knoebel's stock in this event is up in the air.
The other names to watch would be the Wyomissing duo of Josiah Taylor and Ryan Vargo who both ran 2:00 this indoor season, as well as Colby Belczyk of Riverview, who ran an impressive 2:02 this winter as just a sophomore.
As I'll discuss below, if Baublitz reemerges onto the scene, he's pretty much better than any other runner I just mentioned.
The 1600 is another event I expect to be dominated by the likes of Jonah Powell, but there is certainly more firepower and depth here compared to the 800. Of the 8 medalists from last year, 5 return. The biggest wildcard here would have to be Garrett Baublitz of Juniata. The junior is one of the only guys in PA (not just AA) that has the talent to hang with Powell with PR's of 1:55/4:18. Unfortunately though, he was AWOL all of indoor with what we can only presume to be an injury. He was kind of forgotten by people, but he could've easily matched Powell's double at indoor states in my opinion. He was 2nd behind Forsythe last year, and man, a Baublitz v Powell showdown in the 1600 would be amazing if Baublitz came out this season at full fitness.
While he had a tough indoor campaign, Ethan Knoebel was 3rd at states last year, blasting a PR of 4:20 to cement himself as a legit stud in AA. He'll have to show signs of life again after an indoor season that was mostly in the 4:40's, but the kid is talented enough that if he's clicking, he can also hang around the front of this 1600 field.
Another notable absence from indoor this year was Colton Sands of Penns Valley. Despite his teammate Colwell making some appearances, we saw none of Sands. The super sophomore struggled at the end of XC after looking to be a shoe-in for a top 3 finish in A, which leads me to believe that he too, was dealing with some injury issues. He's another kid who, if he reemerges at full fitness, could be a contender. He ran 4:28 at the state final last spring as just a freshman (as well as a 4:26 in the prelim), and also holds a 9:39 in his first year. I can't rule him out as being a 4:20 type runner who can contend for a top 3 spot.
Someone who did compete in indoor that would be a threat is Ben Kuhn of Wyomissing. The junior opted to run the 3000 indoor, and may very well lean towards the 3200 outdoor, but don't rule out the fact that he ran a 4:25.86c mile this indoor season. Not to mention that he ran 4:21 as a sophomore last year, but shockingly decided not to run it at states. His 9:32 is impressive, but I have to think there's some untapped potential in the 1600 for Kuhn.
While I already mentioned it above, this has been a year of breakthroughs for Dan Ford. He already ran 4:28 for a medal last spring (0.1 behind Sands), but Ford has really upped his game this year. While I think he is better off competing in the 800 field, Ford could still contend for a top 5 finish if he so chooses to.
Guys like Jack Miller and Andrew Healey are guys who ran solid miles indoor this season, and could very well contend at the front of this field, but will likely opt to run the 3200 come states.
One last name to keep an eye on would be the last medalist from last year, Palmerton's Jake Martinez, who ran 4:29 in the finals but holds a PR of 4:25. He's never raced indoor so we don't know much about where he's at, but the Lehigh commit showed some steady improvement with a solid XC season, and is a sleeper that nobody has mentioned at all heading into this outdoor season.
Our last open event, the 3200, might be the deepest heading into the 2019 spring. There were only 3 seniors in the top 12 of last year's state finals, and the AA guys put on a really strong showing in the 3000 this past indoor season. We saw Miller, Kuhn, and Healey all run sub 8:55, and in total AA had 8 guys go sub 9:10. This total doesn't even include two returning medalists in Josh Lewis and Colton Sands, who did not race indoor this season. These five names are pretty much the top tier in my opinion. These guys are all either experienced state medalists, or had really solid indoor seasons where they too medaled.
Logan Horst is the only other returning medalist I have yet to name. He was 7th with a 9:41, and had a solid XC season where he finished 2nd to Kuhn at the D3 AA XC championships. While he also did not compete indoors, he is a name similar to Martinez in the 1600 in the sense that he really isn't getting talked about as much as he should be.
The other sub 9:10 kids from this indoor season are the same guys who were the non-seniors in that top 12 from last year's outdoor state meet. Scott Routledge and Adam Hessler are two Pittsburgh guys who are hard to differentiate as they went 10th-11th at the state meet last spring, and both ran 9:04 this indoor season. They've both proven to be consistent, and are likely contenders for a medal in this field. It will be interesting to see if both/or just one of these guys can close the gap on that top tier of AA guys.
I'd say the last group of names to keep an eye on would be Zachary Gould of Trinity Christian (10th last spring, 9:56 3200 indoor), Brendan Colwell (9:09 indoor, great XC season), and Krystof Lapotsky (9:06c indoor out of nowhere, big sleeper in my opinion).
Lastly, the hardest to preview this early on in the season, would be the 4x800. I feel comfortable saying that Wyomissing isn't going to lose this race. They ran 8:08 indoor, (the next closest was 8:34 North East), and are the defending champs. They're just too deep, and I think this is a slightly down year for AA in the middle distances, so other than one team (who we'll get to), I just don't see anyone touching the Wyo squad.
Picking teams to watch for in a relay is tricky, especially in AA, where your data to work with is slim. I like programs with depth who have choices, so squads like Lewisburg and Jenkintown could throw together some solid relays. Elk County Catholic ran 8:02 last year and return some solid pieces.
I will say, if anyone is going to challenge Wyomissing, I really like Warrior Run. They've got depth, and a sub 2 open leg. It might be easy for AAA guys to smirk at that, but for these smaller schools, that's gold. They've got returning times of 1:59-2:03-2:04-2:07-2:11(freshman). I do think this program could do some damage and really challenge Wyomissing if they back up these times from last year. I'm sure Wyomissing's dream scenario would be to win gold in this race without Kuhn having to run, but I'm not so sure they can make that happen with Warrior Run in the picture.
One other program I wouldn't forget about is Riverside. They also ran 8:02 in the finals last year, and I like the look of Colby Belczyk developing as an ace in the 800 for the squad.
Hope you all enjoyed some new content! Pay attention to opening weekend!
Stay Happy, Stay Healthy
-The RunningHub
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