PIAA A State Championship Predictions

It is truly hard to believe that states week is upon us! I suppose time really does fly when you're having fun. As has been pointed out by a handful throughout these past few weeks, although the A classification is still in its early years, this could be a historic year for the smaller school division. With a debate over whether or not Jenkintown is the best team in A history, coupled with the fact that some don't even think they're a lock for the title, shows just how competitive these small schools have gotten over the years. Without any further hesitation, lets start crunching the numbers!

Team Race:

Although I said that some people aren't ready to hand the title to Jenkintown, I am not one of those people. I have simply seen too many impressive performances from this squad to have any doubts in my mind that they will lose this state championship. Their top 4 of the Millers, Wagner, and Geer is just absolutely electric. I think they could honestly put 4 in front of Winchester Thurston's #2 (Heintzleman) and seal the deal early on. Obviously Jenkintown's 5th man is their weakness, but if you have the capability of putting 4 in the top 15 at the state meet, your odds of winning are pretty damn high.

Obviously, Winchester Thurston has their hands full here. Lets look at how they have any realistic shot at stealing this thing. With Sands struggling, if Routledge could snag 2nd amongst team scorers (no Hessler, Healey, etc.), that would be a great start. If Heintzleman can pull Malone (WT #3) with him, and avoid having Jenkintown putting 4 in front of them, this could easily make this a close race. Both teams aren't incredibly solid through 5, so a blow up from Jenkintown's back half of their scoring could give this one to Winchester Thurston. After all of that, I still have Jenkintown taking it by 20 or so points. I think the best chance for WT would be for Henitzleman and Malone to have lifetime races and make a push for the top 10 instead of just the top 20.

As much as we have glorified the team matchup between WT and Jenkintown, there are some other really solid programs that we have continually mentioned throughout the course of the season. I think outside of the two aforementioned programs, Montrose and Wyalusing Valley are our big sleepers watch. WVA ran very well at Foundation, and while they hit a rough patch in early October, they've been looking better and better as we approach the postseason. They have an incredible top 3 of Heeman, Patton, and Laudermilch, and like so many other schools in A, lack a 5th man. Caleb Stoddard, only a freshman, has started to make some big progress in the past few weeks for WVA. If this kid rides some momentum and lands a high finish as WVA's #5, they could very realistically take down WT.

Montrose is in a very similar situation. In incredibly muddy, cold conditions, they scored just 30 points in D2 over decent teams in Elk Lake and Holy Cross. Their ability to run in tough conditions makes them a very desirable team to pick as we turn toward the Hershey hills on Saturday. I don't think they have quite enough firepower up front to catch a team like WT, but they'll certainly be within striking distance. If WT blows up and WVA's 5th man doesn't show up, Montrose could suddenly find themselves on the podium.

I'd say lastly watch for Cochranton and Cranberry. I feel confident about the 4 teams listed above, but these two programs should not be forgotten about. Cochranton has been lurking around the top of the state rankings all year, and Cranberry nearly stole a district title from them last week. I really like Cochranton's duo of Jac Cokley and Noah Bernarding, while Cranberry simply has a really reliable 5 guys. If just one guy steps up out of the ordinary, Cranberry could slide into the top 4.

1. Jenkintown
2. Wyalusing Valley Area
3. Winchester Thurston
4. Montrose
5. Cranberry
6. Cochranton
7. Penns Valley

Wyalusing Valley Area probably has no business being in 2nd, but I really like their top 3, and I can't forget how well they ran at Foundation (go look how well they moved up in the 2nd half of the race). If I didn't make it clear before, Jenkintown is not losing this race. Cranberry flips the script on Cochranton, and makes it a really close race with Montrose for 4th.


Individuals:

The talk of A all year has been the trio up front of Healey, Miller, and Sands. As we enter the final weekend of PAXC, this trio is still intact, but there are definitely some changes from when these guys raced at Foundation. I'm worried about Sands after last weekend, and Miller has just been nothing but incredible this fall. I think only in some freak scenario, does Miller not win this. It is his race to lose. As long as he is confident in his own fitness, he should have no doubts about losing this race. Obviously, Healey will look to challenge, and Adam Hessler is not to be ignored. Despite all the talk of Routledge out west, Hessler has now taken him down in back to back weeks and is wearing the WPIAL crown. I don't think he has quite enough raw talent to steal this one from Miller, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this kid come onto the final straightaway in 2nd. Alongside Sands is his teammate Brendan Colwell, who, despite racing under Sands' shadow for over a year now, has the chance to steal the spotlight for once after his district title last week. Although Healey won his district meet, Liam Mead did not let him off easy. With team implications in play as well for Mead, the Montrose senior has the chance to be the hero for his squad with a big finish. Throw in the names of some solid district champs in Ethan Knoebel, Ian Zimmerman, and Christian Tanner, and we've got ourselves a sneaky crowded race up front in A. Going to be fun folks.

1. Jack Miller
2. Adam Hessler
3. Andrew Healey
4. Colton Sands
5. Scott Routledge
6. Liam Mead
7. Ethan Knoebel
8. Brendan Colwell
9. Luke Miller
10. Ian Zimmerman
11. Kevin Heeman
12. Ben Hoffman
13. Zachary Gould
14. Peyton Jones
15. Pat Wagner
16. Carter Kaufman
17. Christian Tanner
18. Kemuel Laudermilch
19. Mason Ochs
20. Wayne Reilly
21. Carter Geer
22. Jac Cokley
23. Sean Heintzleman
24. Nathaniel Lerch
25. Troy Hart