PIAA AA State Championship Predictions

The AA field in PA this year has been an interesting one in that, none of the teams from last year's top 4 are really in contention to win this thing (Don't make me pay for that York Suburban). The top teams to watch for on Saturday are programs that have built up the same group of guys over the past few years and are ready to unleash their squad at full strength. The storyline of the individual race seems to be guys who have incredible resumes on the track, and are just waiting to finally have it translate over to XC. Lewis, Baublitz, and Powell have all done remarkable things on the oval, and they are among a host of others who will look to finally claim dominance on the grass. 

Team Race:

While I sat down writing this to talk about the battle between Greensburg Salem and Grove City, I began to really take a closer look at this AA field, and I realized that this one is much more up in the air than I thought. While GS and Grove City are both likely the top 2 finishers, there are roughly 6 other top teams that I think could crack into the top 3. Lewisburg, Indiana Area, New Castle, Pope John Paul II, Holy Redeemer, and York Suburban. In what is obviously a very crowded team race, I could foresee 3rd through 9th being separated by less than 50 points. Sorting through this mess is just pure madness.

Lets start with our two favorites. Grove City has had an unorthodox approach to their weeks leading up the postseason. They've had weeks where they rested the entire varsity squad except for Powell, and they've had other weeks where they've run the "A" team without Powell. The team has won without him, and Powell has won without his squad. Clearly, this team is primed for one big show when the full squad is on display. Tobias Jones and Joseph Somora are a solid #2-#3 punch, and this team's 5 is simply very complete. I think the question will be if Greensburg Salem's trio can run well enough to give enough of a cushion for their 4th and 5th man to hold off Grove City. If The Binda's and Brown can give Greensburg Salem a 35-40 point lead through 3 guys, I think the GS boys can take this one. I think Somora and Jones will be hovering right outside of the medals, and if one of them could sneak into the top 25, then the title leans in favor of Grove City. While you can lean this battle one way or the other, I think if the Greensburg Salem trio can keep themselves under 25 points, they'll win the state title.

Lewisburg is an intriguing team in the grand scheme. They really haven't been challenged since they lost to State College at PSU way back in the early season. Freshman phenom Jacob Hess has the chance to break into the top 10 in this race, which could give this team a huge lift. I think logistically speaking, Lewisburg is one of the safest bets for a high finish, but one of the least likely to crack the top 2. They're set up very similarly to Greensburg Salem with a great top 3, and a drop off to their last two scorers. Lewisburg's trio just isn't quite as strong as GS's, so on paper, its hard to imagine Lewisburg finding themselves on the podium.

Indiana Area and New Castle will be interesting to watch. The fact that both teams finished within 50 points of Greensburg Salem at WPIALS in a 30 team race is promising. Both teams have raced a lot this year, but show no signs of tiring. Indiana's Matt Berzonsky reminds me of Collin Ochs in a few different ways. They both started the season off red hot, towards the front of their squad. Although both teams have improved, they gradually slid their way back on their team's respective varsity order. I repeatedly said, if Ochs' returned to his normal form, CR South would jump from being solid, to being an elite squad. Well sure enough, CR South finished 3rd in D1, with Ochs leading the way. If Berzonsky moves back up towards Budjos in this race on Saturday, I think Indiana is one of the few squads that has a small chance to shock the field and sneak onto the podium. New Castle is a huge question mark. They came into WPIALS undefeated, and held their own after they finally faced stiff competition. Litrenta has been a great ace for this squad. As for how the rest of the scoring 5 will respond to such a drastic jump in competition is anyone's guess.

Teams like Pope John Paul II and Holy Redeemer are also key squads to be watching as we head into Saturday. With all the AA craziness in D7 and D10, these two squads have quietly had great seasons.  They finished 5th and 6th at Foundation, and both absolutely dominated their respective district meets. I think PJP's duo of Jacks, Brosius and Phillips, are much improved from when they last raced at Hershey, whereas Holy Redeemer's Bryce Zapusek has pulled this entire scoring 5 down with him. With Zapusek in the hunt for a medal, and this team's spread hovering right around 30 seconds, Holy Redeemer is my big sleeper to stun PA with a podium finish. PJP's depth on this challenging Hershey course worries me a little. I feel shaky about placing them higher than possibly 5th, but they're certainly riding a ton of momentum from last week.

York Suburban, like always, should not be ruled out for a podium finish. They took care of a solid Wyomissing squad in crazy conditions over at D3. It seems like every year YS has some new talented freshman we're talking about. Well, this year they have two. The top two guys for York Suburban at the District 3 meet were freshmen Cole Adams and Shea Walsh, with Raudensky and Shaffer both having bad days. If this top 4 all shows up on Saturday, I think they're one of the most complete teams in all of AA. They're basically deep through 7, ad Raudensky was a top 10 finisher at states last year. Despite what I said about them being out of contention for the title, the more I sit here and look over this race, the more I think York Suburban has the best chance to steal this thing from the top 2.

1. Greensburg Salem
2. Grove City
3. York Suburban
4. Holy Redeemer
5. Indiana Area
6. Lewisburg Area
7. Pope John Paul II
8. North East
9. New Castle
10. Wyomissing

Individual Race:

All season long, I've thought Josh Lewis was going to win this thing. He's been unstoppable, going undefeated through some big time meets before faltering at his D10 meet last week. I think Lewis has all the right weapons to win this race. He won Foundation, he almost ran as fast as McGoey and Kinne out in Ohio, and he showcased some leg speed, racing to a 15:43 PR two weeks before the District 10 meet. Knowing how crazy the conditions were at D10, the race could easily be thrown out as a fluke. There is very little reason to pick against Josh Lewis to win this race.

I think Jonah Powell is going to steal it from him.

There's something about the way Powell has prepared in the past few weeks that makes me lean in his favor. He and his coaches have handpicked the weeks he's rested and raced, regardless of what his team is doing. I'm usually anti straying away from your team, but it seems like the Grove City program has a very specific purpose behind when certain guys race or rest. From an obvious standpoint, Powell won the D10 meet last week. It should be noted that since losing to Lewis at Foundation, Powell has won every meet since. I think this is one of those things where no matter the numbers or data, I have a hunch that Powell is breaking the tape.

But obviously, there are more athletes in the race than just 2 people. Garrett Baublitz was 3rd behind these two at Foundation. He's had an up and down season, but the Juniata junior has a history of coming up big in the postseason. He lost to Logan Horst way back at Ben Bloser, but I think he finishes back in the top 3 just like Foundation.

The rest of the big names are a lot of D10 and D7 guys. Obviously the GS guys will be in the mix. Mark Brown and Cameron Binda will be shooting for the top 5. Aidan Weber will be without his teammate Starvaggi, but should be primed for a big race nonetheless. The aforementioned Horst took down Baublitz earlier this year, and should not be forgotten about. I really like Mitchell Rome in this race. He has progressively gotten better and better throughout the season, and blew the doors off of his district race, winning by over 40 seconds. He only ran a few seconds last year when he was being pushed, and only got 3rd. I think he has the chance to take down Baublitz for a top 3 spot in this race. I think the last group of names to watch are the General McLane duo of Price and Throop, Quintana of Loyalsock, Koons (big D11 champ), and Daniel Ford.

1. Jonah Powell
2. Josh Lewis
3. Mitchell Rome
4. Garrett Baublitz
5. Mark Brown
6. Dylan Throop
7. Alejandro Quintana
8. Cameron Binda
9. Ben Kuhn
10. Aidan Weber
11. Nate Price
12. Logan Strouse
13. Jacob Hess
14. John Koons
15. Jarrett Raudensky
16. Daniel Ford
17. Jack Aulbach
18. Patrick Stevens
19. Dylan Binda
20. Bryce Zapusek
21. Van May
22. Tobias Jones
23. Anthony Litrenta
24. Cole Adams
25. Aidan Doherty