PIAA AAA State Championship Predictions

The last of our PAXC previews for the 2018 fall (yes, regionals will get love).  After a few years of being graced with the likes of Hoeys, Affolders, and guys like Kujdych and Brophy, its fair to say that for the first time in awhile, there is no household name in PA. Sure, Zach Kinne has come from the Midwest and shown us his incredible talent, but as we have entered the postseason, he surely has faltered. Of course, his teammate Dan McGoey is a powerhouse in his own right, returning to the Hershey course after finishing 3rd as just a sophomore. There is undoubtedly a group of PA guys who have done remarkable things on the grass and trails this fall. But, even then, we are not used to this wide open of a field. In 2017, we saw two perennial names in our sport come to do battle. There was the undefeated Pittsburgher in Noah Beveridge, who, despite having not lost, wasn't even the favorite. His eastern PA counterpart, Rusty Kujdych, had lost only to the eventual national champions from Loudon Valley, and an individual Foot Locker qualifier in Dalton Hengst. In 2016, we were graced with the arrival of Noah Affolder, who of course, went on to win the regional Foot Locker meet, and suffered his only loss of the season at Foot Locker. And lastly, we had the fortune of watching Jake Brophy secure back to back state titles over the Hoey brothers in 2015, who are, you know, professionals now.

The point I'm trying to make is that while we may not have some of the firepower up front that PA is used to, we certainly have the same amount of excitement to prepare for in just 24 hours. The team race is wide open as its been in 5+ years, and frankly, I think people are becoming just as torn on the individual race as well. I hope all of you are pumped about these races as I am. Seeing them in person is going to be a blast.  ;)

Team Race:

As we reflect back on last week's district results, every team around the top has a reason to come into this race very confident. For LaSalle, they solo'd some extremely quick times on the tough Belmont course, and Twomey looks to be getting back to his regular form back in the front of his team's lineup.

For Dwest, after a really tough struggle at Manhattan, they bounced back beautifully at the District 1 meet, scoring just 71 points, the 2nd lowest winning score in the past 5 years (CRN with 53 in 2016, eventually won the state title). They're deep through 7 guys (just look at the JV race), and Barnhill is slowly starting to move up on Sewall and Valderrabano as just a sophomore. This an extremely experienced group and is absolutely capable of running away with this thing.

The talk over North Allegheny should not be about the struggles of Zach Kinne, but rather, the fact that the Tigers comfortably beat Seneca Valley and Mount Lebabnon in a race where Kinne gave up 7 points he wouldn't normally. If Kinne runs normally, NA wins WPIALS by almost 30 points, and people would practically hand the title to NA. Frankly, I think we're in a very similar situation on the statewide scale. I think despite the talent on Dwest and LaSalle, if Kinne finishes top 3 in this race with McGoey, NA will win. People are quick to say Kinne "can't run hills" after his Cal U struggles, but people are also quick to forget how comfortably he won Foundation. The backend of NA's varsity squad has made great progress, and I think they are less and less of a liability than people make them out to be.

My next tier of teams is Unionville, Mount Lebanon, and Seneca Valley. These are the teams that on paper, aren't on the level of the 3 teams above, but all have the ability to sneak their way onto the podium. For teams like Mount Lebanon and Seneca Valley, we frankly don't know how the eastern PA teams will match up. If it just so happens that the WPIAL teams are better than we thought because they've been going up against each other all year, there is the chance that SV and Mt Lebo fight off Dwest and LaSalle for the podium. Do I think this is the case? No, its unlikely, but not impossible. More specifically though, the bounce back race for Ketler at WPIALS is super promising for SV. They almost took down North Allegheny at Foundation back when Ketler was still struggling, so this could be a big shocker. It should also be noted that Owori and Ketler have as much experience on Hershey's course as just about anyone. On the contrary, Anderson and Consentino have been lights out for Lebo. If we're following the pattern so far this year, then maybe the script will be flipped yet again between Seneca Valley and Mount Lebanon. Unionville is the big x-factor in this race. Their biggest flaw, their 5th man, will actually hurt them less at states, as it is a smaller race than District 1. Plus, their 5th man Jarrett Conway, is riding a ton of momentum and has the chance to make another jump. With the possibility of Unionville putting 3 in the top 15 of this race, if the Conway brothers replicate their district performances, Unionville could go and win this whole dang thing.

Other teams to keep an eye on are State College, Haverford Township, and Cedar Crest. State College was considered a team in AAA right behind the likes of Mt. Lebo all season, so just because we haven't seen a lot from them recently, who's to say that they still couldn't crack into the top 5? I don't think Haverford had their best day at D1's, and their mix of depth and frontrunning should not be ignored. They have a very deep pack, and Donnelly's chances for a top 15 finish aren't low. Truthfully, all of the District 1 teams should be on your radar. In years like this where D1 isn't dominant up at the front, they can usually be found putting all 5 teams in the top 9 or so. Cedar Crest deserves a shoutout because I think their win says more than just how talented they are. In gritty conditions that made some really talented teams crack in D3, despite their youth and inexperience, Cedar Crest powered through and ended up comfortably winning the district. I don't think they're primed with enough talent to finish very high in the team race, but with rain in the forecast tonight into tomorrow morning, if that course isn't in great shape, who knows, maybe they'll sneak their way towards the front.

1. North Allegheny
2. Downingtown West
3. Unionville
4. Seneca Valley
5. LaSalle College
6. Mount Lebanon
7. Haverford Township
8. State College
9. Council Rock South
10. Owen J Roberts


Individual Race:
Although much of it has been discussed, I think this race will eventually fall into the hands of the western PA guys. With that being said, the reason I put so many eastern PA teams near the front of the team race is because I expect some big time blowups from some WPIAL guys. Whether people realize it or not, I think running that Cal U course two weeks in a row for some people can really take a toll. Just look at the D3 curse back when they had to run the harder rendition of Hershey's course for districts. I don't think Walker, Sewall, and Demis quite have the fitness to hang with someone like McGoey, but of course, that's why we run the race. I think the two big names to watch here are Tyler Wirth and Brayden Harris. Wirth was 5th in this race last year, and because of few underwhelming performances this year, has gotten grossly overlooked. This dude is a beast at Hershey and could be the one kid that hangs around the front longer than everyone expects. I think Brayden Harris has quietly had one of the best seasons in Pennsylvania. He has absolutely turned it on down the home stretch of the season, winning Gettysburg, Mid-Penn's, and then eventually the D6 title. He might not as big of a name as some of these other guys, but if he trusts his fitness, I think he is absolutely capable of hanging around the top 5. Obviously, there are the other big WPIAL names to watch. Owori, Ketler, Fitch, ad Leachman will all be in the hunt for top 10 finishes. Who knows which D3 guys will show up in this one. Knepper, Wisner, Dorenkamp, and a host of others could shock us with a high finish. At the end of the day, I think a lot of people are picking against Kinne, so I'm gonna go with my gut and take his side. While he might be lacking some confidence mentally, if he gets out on that course and remembers how he ran at Foundation, he can win this state title. All I know is, whoever comes up that hill tomorrow first, is in for a life-changing experience. While track always provides some great hype, there's something about hitting that final straightaway at Hershey with the PIAA banners hanging over the fences, and the crowd going crazy, that makes it really special for the winner. Good luck to all. Cheers.

1. Zach Kinne
2. Dan McGoey
3. Christian McComb
4. Tyler Wirth
5. Noah Demis
6. Patrick Anderson
7. Cole Walker
8. Brayden Harris
9. Sam Owori
10. Christian Fitch
11. Payton Sewall
12. Seth Ketler
13. Ethan McIntyre
14. Zach Leachman
15. Chayce Macknair
16. Jack Wisner
17. Evan Dorenkamp
18. Peter Consentino
19. Mike Donnelly
20. Vincent Twomey
21. Connor Shields
22. Patrick Theveny
23. Rob O'Brien
24. Isaac Valderrabano
25. Cole Driver

-The RunningHub