PTFCA State Championship Predictions: 800

Be sure to check out our predictions that have already been posted for the relays at PSU this weekend!

4x8 Predictions: https://pahsrunninghub.blogspot.com/2019/02/ptfca-state-championship-predictions-4x8.html
DMR Predictions: https://pahsrunninghub.blogspot.com/2019/02/ptfca-state-championship-predictions-dmr.html

800:

Accepted Entries-
1  Albright, Eric                10 Garnet Valle               
2  Balick, Jack                  12 Abing Friends              
3  Branan, Kendall               11 Indiana Area               
4  Cj, Thimons                   11 Highlands                  
5  Eissler, Matt                 12 Pennridge                   6  Endres, David                 12 CB East                    
7  Ford, Daniel                  11 Quaker Valley              
8  Hoey, Jonah                   11 Bish Shanahan              
9  Ketler, Seth                  12 Seneca Valle               
10  Messner, Joe                  12 State College              
11  Ochs, Collin                  12 CR South                   
12  Powell, Jonah                 12 Grove City A               
13  Raup, Ricky                   11 St. Joe Prep               
14  Shields, Connor               12 Warwick                    
15  Shue, Tyler                   11 Ephrata                    
16  Wirth, Tyler                  12 Wallenpaupack               
17  Wisner, Jack                  12 Carlisle                   
18  Zajicek, Elias                12 Chartiers Valley            19  Zeh, Ethan                    12 Radnor                      20  Zelinsky, Jarett              12 Holy Ghost Prep   

Initial Reactions:
The top 11 guys in the state are all entered, which is a real treat. We ended up having six scratches, which is a little less than average, which resulted in a decently quick cut off of 1:59.57. Some of the surprising entries in my opinion were Powell and Shields. Although I suppose with no relay duty and their main events (the mile) being earlier in the day, it makes no sense not to run it.

The race:

Ok, so back when there were 24 guys, there were 3 heats of 8, which makes rational sense. With 20 guys accepted, my guess is unfortunately this race gets a little more crowded with two heats? Will they do 10 and 10? I'm not entirely sure, so if anyone has any insight on this it would be much appreciated. For now, I'm going to operate under that assumption, but I will make the necessary adjustments to this post if I hear otherwise.

Heat 1-
CJ Thimons
Jonah Powell
Daniel Ford
Kendall Branan
Tyler Wirth
Jack Balick
Ricky Raup
Connor Shields
Joe Messner
Elias Zajicek

I'm used to breaking down the indoor 800 race by the three heats, so looking at this at a two section race really changes a lot of things. The higher number of guys in the slower section raises the likelihood that someone will take it out hard, which could end up throwing more guys into the medals that aren't from the fast heat. Of course, on the contrary, having more guys in the fast heat makes it harder for guys to medal in a slower section.

Realistically speaking, the way the 800 runs, there's bound to be one or two guys that lock up and open the door for medalists in the slower section. The question simply becomes, how many?

We saw three medalists outside the fast heat at last year's championships, but that was in an unorthodox scenario in which the middle section came through 400 faster than the top heat. I think having veteran milers in the field like Powell, Wirth, and Shields will help keep the pace honest in the middle of the race if things do go out hard, which could set up for a really fast race.

Thimons is the top seed in this section, but hasn't quite shown a knack for winning races this season. I like guys like Branan and Balick, who have come up with either a big win or a string of wins throughout the season. The two most talented guys in the field are hands down, Wirth and Powell, but both guys are running in off distances.

When it comes down to it, I think Powell is just a class above the rest of these guys in the 800, and ends up pulling away in a 1:55 type time to hop into the medals. I see Shields, Branan, and Balick all kicking hard close behind in 1:56-1:57 marks.


Heat 2-
Tyler Shue
David Endres
Matt Eissler
Jack Wisner
Seth Ketler
Jonah Hoey
Collin Ochs
Ethan Zeh
Eric Albright
Jarrett Zelinsky

While there are certainly cons with having the track slightly more crowded for the elite athletes, we are fortunate that we get to see all the best names in the event rightfully get to go head to head against one another. There's usually more than just eight guys that can compete for a top five finish, especially in an event as wild as the 800 (just take a lot at all the medals from outside the fast heat over the years). Every guy in this field has proven they belong here, and are not here from just one fluke race. Fun fact, the top eight guys in this field all have some type of individual state medal to their name.

This race might be the one I'm most excited for. Our top three seeds are some of the most well-known names in track and field over the past few years, yet all lack an individual gold medal. Of course, that list doesn't include Jonah Hoey, who arguably has the best resume in all of PA and lacks a gold himself. Seth Ketler has been apart of historically fast DMRs while Ethan Zeh is a returning outdoor medalist who has proven to be extremely consistent.

So how the heck could someone outside of this list of names win this thing?

Jack Wisner is fresh ladies and gentlemen.

The Pitt commit has historically had quiet indoor seasons, while unleashing impressive PR's of 4:18 and 1:56 in the spring. So naturally, when he went out and solo'd a 1:56 on a flat track this past weekend, people took notice.

If you aren't aware of Matt Wisner's epic high school career, I suggest you take a gander. The Duke athlete has been thriving in the middle distances, but could never capture a state gold in high school.

As Jack Wisner enters this weekend as the 4th seed and the only fresh one, is it possible that the Carlisle senior pulls an upset on a pack of guys that have been racing against each other for years?

Despite all the buildup hype I just gave him, I think he's going to come up just short.

Matt Eissler seems to be the logical pick, as he has proven to be the king of successful doubles after years of 4x8 duties. But, we can't forget that Endres did beat him head to head at Ocean Breeze. Honestly, I've had some inclination to pick Jonah Hoey to win this thing, but he's just been a little too flat for me this season to pick him to win. I think a lot of people are quick to pick Shue to win this thing, but he has very little experience successfully doubling back from a mile. Collin Ochs has been great at winning races this year, but is he ready to step up to the top tier and take everyone in PA down?

Seth Ketler got caught up in the unfortunate fall during the outdoor final last spring, and has to be hungry for vengeance. Zeh and Zelinsky are two extremely consistent 800 guys who will also have to overcome doubling back from the 4x8. Lastly, there's Eric Albright. The sophomore superstar has been a surprise to everyone this season. Can he drop another wild 2-3 second PR and compete at the front?

Ultimately, I think this race comes down to Eissler, Endres, Wisner and Shue. My guess is despite his excellent closing speed, the mile legs are too much for Shue to overcome, and Eissler gets his first state gold. Cheers to a double gold for the Penn commit! My guess is despite the heartbreak of yet another state silver, Shue learns his lesson and gets his gold this spring...

1. Matt Eissler 1:53.2
2. Tyler Shue 1:53.5
3. Jack Wisner 1:53.9
4. David Endres 1:54.2
5. Seth Ketler 1:54.6
6. Jonah Powell 1:55.1
7. Collin Ochs 1:55.1
8. Jonah Hoey 1:55.3

-The RunningHub