PTFCA State Championship Predictions: DMR

Well folks, its hard to believe that we've already hit indoor states week! As I'm sure all of you know, the entries dropped this past Sunday, and our fields are assembled. I wanted to kick off our previews/predictions for the state meet with the relays, since I didn't get around to compiling the cutoffs for them before this weekend (you really don't appreciate how much time Etrain put into this until you try pumping out the content at the same rate he did). My hope is to have both relays out by tonight, and then cover the 800, mile, and 3000 over the next two days, and have everything done by Thursday so we can get some great discussion going on the site for the two days or so leading up to the meet. I hope you're all excited for this weekend!

DMR:

Accepted Teams-
1  Central Bucks West                                           2  Downingtown West                                            
3  Garnet Valley                                               
4  Haverford Township HS                                        5  LaSalle College High School                                  6  Lower Merion                                                 7  Mifflin County High School                                  
8  Mount Lebanon                                               
9  Penncrest                                                    10  Radnor                                                      
11  Seneca Valley                                               
12  Twin Valley                                                 
13  West Chester East 

Initial Reactions:
The only team who scratched out of the 12 team field was Council Rock South, allowing Central Bucks West to sneak into the last spot. I'm honestly surprised by this seeing as that the DMR is late in the meet, and CR South's 10:41 was over a month ago, meaning they could've done some serious damage in this race.

This field saw a big last minute shakeup with Mifflin County, Seneca Valley, Mount Lebanon, Garnet Valley, and Penncrest all earning spots in the last weekend of qualifying. The defending champs are in safely, but they sure look a lot more vulnerable this time around than at this point last year.

That TFCAofGP Last Chance Meet DMR ended up being heartbreaking in the way things turned out. In a race that came down to a final kick, with Garnet Valley beating out CB West and CB South by less than a second, that ended up being the difference between making states and being at home. This was a tough break for CB South.

The Race:
This might be the most wide open race at the state level we've had in years. There's only 10-11 seconds separating the entire field, and a lot of these teams haven't run the DMR in several weeks.

The keys to winning the DMR are ideally keeping the relay fresh, and either having one of the best milers in the state, or having such a good 1200-400-800 that your mile leg just has to hold on for dear life (see Ryan James and Cardinal O'Hara a few years back). Well, no team really checks off two boxes. Haverford, CB West, Downingtown West, LaSalle, and Radnor are seemingly going all in on both relays, Harris is supposedly going to try and pull off one of the hardest doubles imaginable (3000/DMR), Seneca Valley has their two biggest pieces doubling, and the teams who DO have big anchors (West Chester East and Mount Lebanon) are having those studs run the open mile.

So who the heck is going to win this thing?

The 1200 leg should be a great battle between guys like Albright, Owori, Brown, Hill, Macknair, and Seiberlich (?). Owori handed off at the front last year next to Jonah in a 3:10-3:11 split, and is by far the most experienced guy in this leg. A key thing to note is that Hill and Sieberlich (possibly) will be the only guy on fresh legs of the names listed above. I don't think there is anyone here with enough firepower to blast something well under 3:10, so if this thing stays slow, I like Hill's odds of closing hard and getting Twin Valley near the front of the race early on. A lot of these guys are milers moving down in distance, while Hill is the opposite. If he can hang in the middle part of the race, he's got the chance to utilize his 800 speed.

The 800 legs will be pretty all over the place. The same goes for this leg as well, where there really aren't any guys who are expected to blast a split way below 2:00. I know Schlegel has gone 1:58ish, and that might be the best split any of these teams have had on a DMR so far this year. I think if Brendan Campbell is on this leg for Haverford, he could drop the quickest split of the day with a 1:56 ish type mark. Tomov is a big wildcard on anchor for me right now, but if Campbell can run as fast as I think he can, Haverford will definitely be in contention to win this on the last leg.

Obviously, it all comes down to the anchor. My prediction is Haverford, LaSalle, Downingtown West, and Twin Valley are hanging around the front at this point, with Mount Lebanon, West Chester East, and Seneca Valley all chasing close behind. The best anchor in this field is obviously Patrick Anderson, it is simply a matter of how close to the front his team can get him. He almost chased down Ketler at the TSTCA champs meet last week, but came up just short. I think this is truly where tired, doubling legs will come into play. I think Chamoun, Twomey, Tomov, and Servis will all be pretty fresh, and will have to run really well to hold off the likes of Ketler, Anderson, and Lewin.

My best guess for this crazy race is that Aidan Tomov is the only one that can hold off a hard charging Patrick Anderson, and Haverford (my preseason pick to win the relay) gets somewhat of an upset gold in the DMR. Lewin and Ketler also track down the front quartet, but tired doubling legs keeps them from breaking into the top 3.

Predictions:

1. Haverford 10:26.98
2. Mount Lebanon  10:28.1
3. LaSalle 10:28.9
4. Downingtown West 10:29.8
5. Seneca Valley 10:31.2
6. Twin Valley 10:33.4
7. West Chester East 10:35.4
8. Mifflin County 10:36.1