In the last race of the day, there was no surprise when the AAA field came through the mile in the fastest time of the day. Even then, the lead pack coming through in 4:50's showed no signs of anyone trying to break the field early. However, it wasn't long after the first mile when the NA boys decided to try and gap the field. Coming down the Aloha hills, Zach Kinne and Dan McGoey had put a considerable gap on the field in only half a mile or so. Only one other athlete in the field had responded to the move.
Patrick Anderson.
As the trio broke off and slowly gapped the field through two miles, with Fitch hanging on for dear life, Kinne looked at ease, and many in the crowd thought he was going to repeat from Foundation. In fact, as they passed the sewage plant, Kinne had actually opened up about a 5 meter lead. However, as they disappeared in the woods briefly, many were shocked to see Anderson emerge up the hill as the leader. With McGoey falling off, it was clear it was now a two man race. As they rounded the shed for the long, final straightaway, Kinne wasn't out of it quite yet. But as the straightaway dragged on, it became increasingly clear that no on was going to catch Patrick Anderson.
For someone like me, who is a fan and an analyst* (not quite sure I've earned that status yet) of the sport, this was humbling to watch. Its so easy to get caught up in the hype of the studs who receive lots of the attention online and through the grapevine, but when it comes to Hershey, those who are rewarded are the silent grinders of the year. Of course, its not as if Patrick Anderson came out of nowhere. However, I can confidently say I don't think anyone picked this kid to win. Many people, including myself, saw his win at TSTCA's as a fluke, and reassured ourselves that this was the case when he lost at WPIAL's a week later. In all of the craziness of Anderson taking the title, I think the most forgettable part in all of this is that he's only a junior. Despite the talk around McGoey's incredible finish as just a sophomore, there's no longer even a guarantee that he can win this thing. The WPIAL is set up to be even stronger than last year, as these two, coupled with Fitch, will all return for battle next year.
The story of the day for me was Brayden Harris. I hyped him up a lot going into this race, and he still exceeded my expectations, finishing 4th, very similar to McGoey's finish last year. Its very rare we see 4 of the top 5 finishers in a state championship all return!
If I'm Kinne, I walk away from this race disappointed but very proud nonetheless. Its extremely hard to come into an entirely new state, entirely new environment, and be expected to beat an entire state of athletes who have tailored their training and experience to the Hershey course. We've become accustomed to guys like Noah Affolder coming in and blowing us away, when in reality, its much more difficult than it seems. He had an incredible season and despite his struggles at WPIAL's, he bounced back to earn state silver and more importantly, helped his team power their way to their own state championship.
Tyler Wirth capped off an incredible XC career. Although he was never able to crack into the top 3, he arguably had the greatest, most consistent XC career in the class of 2019. Don't forget this kid has run 4:14. Although a freak bad day kept him out of the 1600 finals last spring, he's still debatably the most well-rounded athlete in the sport.
Moving towards the team side, this thing was really crazy. The results showed how there truly was a tier of the top 6 teams in the state. 68 points separated the top 6 teams, yet the gap from those top 6 was another 70 points back to Council Rock South in 7th. Each team had the pieces to try and win this thing, but of course, there could only be one winner.
Unionville, pointed out by many, had the firepower up front to try and win this thing. They weren't quite able to duplicate their district performance, and a struggling 5th man really knocked them out of contention. I must commend them for how beautifully they tied it all together for the postseason.
Mount Lebanon's pack behind Anderson couldn't quite hold steady in the latter half of the race. They looked fantastic through 4 at the two mile, but they fell apart at the #5 spot, and Cosentino couldn't quite sneak in the medals. The boys from Lebo proved a lot by keeping their momentum throughout the entirety of the season, and holding their own with the eventual state champs on numerous occasions. Like always, they seem as if they'll be losing some guys, but will have enough pieces to stay relevant on the statewide scene next year.
I think there's a lot to be said about this Seneca Valley team. After having consistent success the past couple years, they had to deal with some adversity this year. They didn't seem to be very deep, and Ketler was fighting off a slump of some sorts throughout the season. However, when it really mattered, they got a great lift from freshman Noah Petersen, and we saw signs of the old Seth Ketler. The Owori/Ketler duo has been fun to watch for the past 3-4 years, and I'm sure they'll take some much needed rest before they gear up for a title defense indoors.
I'm sure Dwest came into this meet with the vision of winning this thing, yet they found themselves off the podium. They were leading through the mile, and fell out of the top two by the two mile. I'm sure that despite some solid individual performances, this team came away wanting more. Their district performance indicated that they had the talent to win this thing, but one or two tough days from guys had it slip away from them. Its a classic Hershey thing. This course is unforgiving, and unless you're a perennial powerhouse, you have to have your whole squad on its A game to win a title there. Despite the massive losses they'll suffer to graduation, I can confidently say that this Dwest squad will likely be in a similar position heading into Hershey next year.
Kudos to LaSalle for making me eat my words. I wasn't generous in my predictions for them, and they ended up on the podium. Despite only having one medalist, this team was simply too deep to let the Hershey course break them down. While nobody was lights out, there wasn't any huge blowups from this team. They're a unit when it comes to running as the "LaSalle army", and they proved it by following up a state championship with another podium finish.
And of course, there were our state champions from North Allegheny. I find it rather funny how, at the beginning of the season, the big argument was if Kinne and Mcgoey were going to be enough up front to make up for their lack of depth. When the dust settled, NA had the best 5th man in the entire field. While there was talk about the battle for PA #1 all season long, I think North Allegheny convincingly proved that they're the best. Their balance of front running mixed with their depth was a combination that could not be matched. I also think its fitting that, despite there being no individual glory for either Kinne or McGoey, they came together to bring home one title.
Now that my friends, is a wrap on our XC season here in Pennsylvania. That concludes our first competitive season on the site, and we made it! Hopefully we can continue to work together as a community to improve the site, and more importantly, continue some great conversation surrounding our sport. I'll take a couple days off from here, but expect maybe a small tease for indoor by the end of the weekend. As soon as we have a better idea on who our regionals representatives are, I'll make sure to get those to you guys as well. Thank you all!
Stay happy, stay healthy
-The RunningHub
Thursday, November 8, 2018
Wednesday, November 7, 2018
PIAA AA State Championship Recap
The AA race this year was one where both the individual race and team race both came down to two favorites. In both instances, one of the two favorites flourished and won state gold, while the other struggled and underperformed.
From a subjective standpoint, I think this was the craziest race of the day individually. While Powell did eventually pull away and win without much surprise, the prelude to the last 800 was absolute insanity. As the leaders passed the 2 mile and tumbled down the hill, over the road, and past the sewage plant, there was still a true lead pack with just over 1k to go. As spectators looked from atop the hill, they saw a lead pack of 5, with Powell lurking in the middle. However, the developing story was Mitchell Rome trying to breakaway from the field. Kuhn, Price, and Baublitz filled out the pack of 5. In all the madness of a such a huge pack still intact with 1k to go, it didn't even dawn on me that Lewis was missing until the finish. Despite pulling for the underdog in Rome, it was no surprise when Powell came over the hill, eventually cruising his way to a state title. Baublitz, in the absence of Lewis, duplicated his Foundation performance and came in for silver. After a disappointing D10 race, Price bounced back beautifully to come up with a big 3rd place. Lastly, after making a valiant effort in the last parts of the race, Rome hung onto a respectable 4th place finish. The other notable finishes in the top 10 were freshman Jacob Hess and sophomore Dylan Throop. Both runners had very different strategies in breaking into the top 8, with Hess hanging around the front admirably as just a freshman, whereas Throop moved up from all the way back around 30th. They will be the biggest challengers to Baublitz's title run next year. While Hess had a historic season as a freshman, Throop's run really stuck out to me. The sophomore ran under Nate Price all year, and after a promising freshman year, absolutely exploded onto the XC scene. Although Baublitz will be a seasoned veteran, and Hess may have the most raw talent of anyone, I like Throop's chances to hang around the front next fall.
Obviously, it was sad to watch Lewis struggle and fall out of the medals. He clearly was not at his top level, and he crumbled a bit at the end of the season. I hope it was not a result of over-racing or general fatigue. This kid had an absolutely awesome season, and I think at one point in the year, he could've hung with anyone in PA, not just AA.
Our other favorite that couldn't quite live up to the hype was Grove City, whose title aspirations slipped away from them right around the 2 mile. The Foundation champions went out like favorites, and it cost them in the 2nd half of the race. While Greensburg Salem patiently went through in 4th at the mile, Grove City had a 20+ point lead on the field already. While Powell obviously went on to excel, guys like Tobias Jones really struggled from an aggressive early pace, falling from 31st back into the 100's. Needless to say though, there is no blame to be put on an individual athlete. The rest the team simply needed to run better in order to have a shot at beating a dominant performance from Greensburg Salem. While I am happy my favorites ran beautifully and slowly moved their way into a blowout victory, I was super excited for the Indiana boys. I mentioned they had a chance to sneak onto the podium with their impressive depth, but I didn't think they had enough firepower up front to get it done. Well, it turns out they didn't need it! Using a 16 second time spread and zero medalists, the Indiana Area boys used the epitome of a team mentality to snag 2nd place at the state championships. This is probably my personal favorite performance of the day, and with 4 of the 7 from the pack returning, what are the odds Indiana could win this thing next year?
Well, truthfully, their odds are pretty low at this point. My way too early prediction is that like Jenkintown this year, Lewisburg is going to have the opportunity to be a historic team in their respective classification next year. They finished 4th overall in the state meet with zero seniors, and one junior in their top 7! For a team to run so well on the big stage with so much youth on the squad is incredibly impressive. And this is not a team carried by Hess. Peter Lantz and Calvin Bailey have been a great 2-3 all year, and of course, will also be back next year. I'm super excited to see what this squad does for the remainder of the year and frankly, over the next few years. This is definitely a team that could resemble the Dallas era that we're just a few years removed from.
It was mentioned all year how AA was a D7 and D10 classification, and those comments weren't wrong. The two districts combined for almost half the medalists (12/25) and swept the top 3 team spots.
Lastly, I'll give some credit to Wyomissing. I didn't even have them in my top 10, and with York Suburban struggling, they found themselves as the top D3 team this time around, and Kuhn helped them exceed expectations.
One more classification to recap before we briefly take a sneak peek into some regional predictions and... dare I mention it... share some thoughts on the upcoming indoor season??? We're rolling now folks!
-The RunningHub
Obviously, it was sad to watch Lewis struggle and fall out of the medals. He clearly was not at his top level, and he crumbled a bit at the end of the season. I hope it was not a result of over-racing or general fatigue. This kid had an absolutely awesome season, and I think at one point in the year, he could've hung with anyone in PA, not just AA.
Our other favorite that couldn't quite live up to the hype was Grove City, whose title aspirations slipped away from them right around the 2 mile. The Foundation champions went out like favorites, and it cost them in the 2nd half of the race. While Greensburg Salem patiently went through in 4th at the mile, Grove City had a 20+ point lead on the field already. While Powell obviously went on to excel, guys like Tobias Jones really struggled from an aggressive early pace, falling from 31st back into the 100's. Needless to say though, there is no blame to be put on an individual athlete. The rest the team simply needed to run better in order to have a shot at beating a dominant performance from Greensburg Salem. While I am happy my favorites ran beautifully and slowly moved their way into a blowout victory, I was super excited for the Indiana boys. I mentioned they had a chance to sneak onto the podium with their impressive depth, but I didn't think they had enough firepower up front to get it done. Well, it turns out they didn't need it! Using a 16 second time spread and zero medalists, the Indiana Area boys used the epitome of a team mentality to snag 2nd place at the state championships. This is probably my personal favorite performance of the day, and with 4 of the 7 from the pack returning, what are the odds Indiana could win this thing next year?
Well, truthfully, their odds are pretty low at this point. My way too early prediction is that like Jenkintown this year, Lewisburg is going to have the opportunity to be a historic team in their respective classification next year. They finished 4th overall in the state meet with zero seniors, and one junior in their top 7! For a team to run so well on the big stage with so much youth on the squad is incredibly impressive. And this is not a team carried by Hess. Peter Lantz and Calvin Bailey have been a great 2-3 all year, and of course, will also be back next year. I'm super excited to see what this squad does for the remainder of the year and frankly, over the next few years. This is definitely a team that could resemble the Dallas era that we're just a few years removed from.
It was mentioned all year how AA was a D7 and D10 classification, and those comments weren't wrong. The two districts combined for almost half the medalists (12/25) and swept the top 3 team spots.
Lastly, I'll give some credit to Wyomissing. I didn't even have them in my top 10, and with York Suburban struggling, they found themselves as the top D3 team this time around, and Kuhn helped them exceed expectations.
One more classification to recap before we briefly take a sneak peek into some regional predictions and... dare I mention it... share some thoughts on the upcoming indoor season??? We're rolling now folks!
-The RunningHub
Tuesday, November 6, 2018
PIAA A State Championship Recap
In the most predictable classification of the three male races on Saturday, we still had a race that produced some history and excitement. The pace went out conservatively, with the leaders coming through the 1600 north of 5:00. The top 3 separated themselves right around the 3200, and for a brief moment, it was a Miller versus Healey battle before Jack Miller comfortably pulled away to secure his state title. For all 3 divisions, I thought the finish to the course really benefited both fans and athletes. The long climb parallel to the finish gave fans a better glimpse of the last 800 or so, whereas the rounding turn around the shed gave the leaders an idea of the gap they had before charging down the final straightaway.
After I watched Miller breaked the tape, I turned to see the rest of the top 10 come through. I saw Routledge in 5th or so, and saw Patton and Laudermilch gaining on him. For a brief moment, I thought my upset pick for the podium was holding together. At that point, the team race was comfortably in Jenkintown's favor, and we watched the rest of their scoring 5 come storming down the last 200m, all landing in the medals. It was more than just a great day for the Drakes, it was a historic one.
The Winchester Thurston boys ran really well. Despite Malone fading hard in the last mile, the WT squad still comfortably finished runner up. Even with Malone running well, there was no catching Jenkintown. I thought Bermann ran really well, and I liked that the squad at least went for it. Through the mile, they were within 5 points of Jenkintown. With Jenkintown returning 3 medalists, and Winchester Thurston returning their entire varsity, the question becomes, who is the favorite next fall?
Truthfully, the only team in the top 5 that was senior heavy was Montrose. Penns Valley and Wyalusing both return a solid core of guys to build around as well. It seems like the A division is slowly getting stronger and stronger as these small school programs learn to develop more than just one or two guys.
With all the focus on Jacob Hess in AA stealing the show, CJ Singleton's run should not go unnoticed. His 20th place finish made him the top freshman in A by 33 seconds, over another recognizable name in Matt Woolcock.
I mentioned this in my quick recaps, but I was really impressed with Hessler's run. With that being said though, I feel that Healey didn't get quite enough credit. The junior fell one spot short of a state title to probably one of the top 5 runners in all of Pennsylvania. He has proven to be extremely consistent in the postseason, and was rewarded with a state silver. He'll have his hands full with some guys next year, but Healey will be the favorite looking ahead to 2019.
Overall, I though the sophomore class stole the show in this race though. 7 guys in the class of 2021 (wow I feel old) had a medal around their neck after the race was over. Granted, 5 of them were either from Jenkintown or Penns Valley, but statistically speaking, that's pretty unusual. Mason Ochs is absolutely a name to watch in the WPIAL as he will be one of the top 3 returners next fall behind Hessler and Routledge.
With minimal blowups in this race, I think most of these results weren't too surprising. Nonetheless, I really had fun kicking off the day with this one.
My two favorite personal races of the day were Christian Tanner and Wayne Reilly. Tanner was 44th at the mile, and finished 9th. Reilly was 113th at the mile, and finished 38th. Tanner's 2nd mile was as fast as the leaders up front (about 2-3 seconds off). Having that much patience and trust in your fitness is rare at the high school level, so kudos to these guys for rocking the middle and later parts of the race.
-The RunningHub
After I watched Miller breaked the tape, I turned to see the rest of the top 10 come through. I saw Routledge in 5th or so, and saw Patton and Laudermilch gaining on him. For a brief moment, I thought my upset pick for the podium was holding together. At that point, the team race was comfortably in Jenkintown's favor, and we watched the rest of their scoring 5 come storming down the last 200m, all landing in the medals. It was more than just a great day for the Drakes, it was a historic one.
The Winchester Thurston boys ran really well. Despite Malone fading hard in the last mile, the WT squad still comfortably finished runner up. Even with Malone running well, there was no catching Jenkintown. I thought Bermann ran really well, and I liked that the squad at least went for it. Through the mile, they were within 5 points of Jenkintown. With Jenkintown returning 3 medalists, and Winchester Thurston returning their entire varsity, the question becomes, who is the favorite next fall?
Truthfully, the only team in the top 5 that was senior heavy was Montrose. Penns Valley and Wyalusing both return a solid core of guys to build around as well. It seems like the A division is slowly getting stronger and stronger as these small school programs learn to develop more than just one or two guys.
With all the focus on Jacob Hess in AA stealing the show, CJ Singleton's run should not go unnoticed. His 20th place finish made him the top freshman in A by 33 seconds, over another recognizable name in Matt Woolcock.
I mentioned this in my quick recaps, but I was really impressed with Hessler's run. With that being said though, I feel that Healey didn't get quite enough credit. The junior fell one spot short of a state title to probably one of the top 5 runners in all of Pennsylvania. He has proven to be extremely consistent in the postseason, and was rewarded with a state silver. He'll have his hands full with some guys next year, but Healey will be the favorite looking ahead to 2019.
Overall, I though the sophomore class stole the show in this race though. 7 guys in the class of 2021 (wow I feel old) had a medal around their neck after the race was over. Granted, 5 of them were either from Jenkintown or Penns Valley, but statistically speaking, that's pretty unusual. Mason Ochs is absolutely a name to watch in the WPIAL as he will be one of the top 3 returners next fall behind Hessler and Routledge.
With minimal blowups in this race, I think most of these results weren't too surprising. Nonetheless, I really had fun kicking off the day with this one.
My two favorite personal races of the day were Christian Tanner and Wayne Reilly. Tanner was 44th at the mile, and finished 9th. Reilly was 113th at the mile, and finished 38th. Tanner's 2nd mile was as fast as the leaders up front (about 2-3 seconds off). Having that much patience and trust in your fitness is rare at the high school level, so kudos to these guys for rocking the middle and later parts of the race.
-The RunningHub
Sunday, November 4, 2018
Quick Reactions to PIAA State Championships
With all the craziness that went down yesterday, its going to take a lot of time to break it all down for you. As I'll begin recapping all the action in full depth for all of you starting tomorrow, lets give some key talking points to discuss just 24 hours after the state meet.
A:
-Jenkintown has to be the best A team we've ever seen, and probably will be for while. All 5 on the medal stand??? That's absurd. Very well deserved title for both Miller and his Jenkintown squad.
-My Wyalusing Valley upset pick for the podium didn't quite pan out as they settled for 3rd, but hey, congrats to Winchester Thurston. Most other years, they'd have a pretty close shot at winning the whole thing.
-Penns Valley??? Wow they came out of nowhere. Kudos to the defending state champs for really wrapping things together nicely after not getting 5 guys under 20 to kick off the season. If Sands is healthy, this squad finishes 3rd.
-Although Healey is the top returner for next year, the end to Hessler's season was pretty special. Throw in the return of the Penns Valley duo next year, and this A race is going to be very crowded up front yet again.
AA:
-Tough to see for Josh Lewis. Obviously I picked Powell to beat him, but I thought Lewis would still be top 3. He had an incredible season and should not hang his head.
-The story of this race for me was the General McLane boys. They sure as hell made a case for at-large bids. After missing out on states as a team on a 6th man tiebreaker, their 3 individual qualifiers went and all finished in the top 13! Price, Throop, and Andrzejewski all had incredible races, and if they got just average races out of their 4th and 5th men, they could've podiumed in this race.
-Speaking of surprise finishes, freshman phenom Jacob Hess had a historic race that should not go unnoticed. He was the only freshman across all classifications to break 17:15 (he ran 16:55!), and to be very clear, with the mud and the changes they had to make to the course, I think this actually ended up being one of the harder versions of Hershey we've seen in years. Absolute monster race for this kid.
-Hess, Baublitz, Throop, Kuhn. Who ya got taking it next year?
-I'm glad I stuck with my Greensburg Salem pick. Their top 3 didn't even run as well as I expected, but their 4 and 5 developed very nicely across the season. They were too good to lose.
-I mentioned that Indiana Area had a small chance to sneak onto the podium, but I can honestly say I had no expectation for them to. Getting on the podium with zero medalists and a 16 second time spread is pretty dang cool in my opinion. Awesome team effort from these guys and very well deserved.
AAA:
-Patrick Anderson, wow. I really don't think anyone gave this kid a chance. When I saw Kinne open about a 5 meter gap past the two mile, I thought it was over. But Anderson hung tough, caught Kinne on the long, gradual hill parallel to the finish, and Kinne just couldn't reel him in on the final straightaway. One of the craziest XC races I've seen since Brophy reeled in Hoey on the final stretch in the last 50 meters in 2015.
-Super pumped about Brayden Harris! Knew this kid was going to have a big day, but 4th was incredible.
-McComb and Demis. Tough day for D1. McComb looked like he never really got in it, whereas Demis dearly paid the price for trying to runaway from the NA boys early. While it didn't pay off, I respect the move by Demis. He and McComb both had great seasons and were PA's shining stars at Manhattan.
-Gotta give credit to LaSalle. I really slighted them when I predicted they'd finish 5th. I just didn't think they were going to show up, but they packed up, and were 20 points or so off a state title repeat.
-The top 6 teams in AAA really separated themselves from the rest of the state. I think these were the squads we all gave some shot of finding the podium, and we saw why. If Chamoun and Barnhill replicate their D1 performance, Dwest wins this thing with 85 points or so. Lots of talent all around from all these teams.
-Weird fact I found interesting. Embrace your training partners! 4 team duos made up a large part of the top 14! Ketler/Owori, Dorenkamp/Miller, McGoey/Kinne, and Harris/Macknair all finished in the top 14 of AAA. Kudos to these guys.
All of these and many more headlines to come in the next couple days! Thanks for hanging around the PAXC scene for yet another year!
-The RunningHub
A:
-Jenkintown has to be the best A team we've ever seen, and probably will be for while. All 5 on the medal stand??? That's absurd. Very well deserved title for both Miller and his Jenkintown squad.
-My Wyalusing Valley upset pick for the podium didn't quite pan out as they settled for 3rd, but hey, congrats to Winchester Thurston. Most other years, they'd have a pretty close shot at winning the whole thing.
-Penns Valley??? Wow they came out of nowhere. Kudos to the defending state champs for really wrapping things together nicely after not getting 5 guys under 20 to kick off the season. If Sands is healthy, this squad finishes 3rd.
-Although Healey is the top returner for next year, the end to Hessler's season was pretty special. Throw in the return of the Penns Valley duo next year, and this A race is going to be very crowded up front yet again.
AA:
-Tough to see for Josh Lewis. Obviously I picked Powell to beat him, but I thought Lewis would still be top 3. He had an incredible season and should not hang his head.
-The story of this race for me was the General McLane boys. They sure as hell made a case for at-large bids. After missing out on states as a team on a 6th man tiebreaker, their 3 individual qualifiers went and all finished in the top 13! Price, Throop, and Andrzejewski all had incredible races, and if they got just average races out of their 4th and 5th men, they could've podiumed in this race.
-Speaking of surprise finishes, freshman phenom Jacob Hess had a historic race that should not go unnoticed. He was the only freshman across all classifications to break 17:15 (he ran 16:55!), and to be very clear, with the mud and the changes they had to make to the course, I think this actually ended up being one of the harder versions of Hershey we've seen in years. Absolute monster race for this kid.
-Hess, Baublitz, Throop, Kuhn. Who ya got taking it next year?
-I'm glad I stuck with my Greensburg Salem pick. Their top 3 didn't even run as well as I expected, but their 4 and 5 developed very nicely across the season. They were too good to lose.
-I mentioned that Indiana Area had a small chance to sneak onto the podium, but I can honestly say I had no expectation for them to. Getting on the podium with zero medalists and a 16 second time spread is pretty dang cool in my opinion. Awesome team effort from these guys and very well deserved.
AAA:
-Patrick Anderson, wow. I really don't think anyone gave this kid a chance. When I saw Kinne open about a 5 meter gap past the two mile, I thought it was over. But Anderson hung tough, caught Kinne on the long, gradual hill parallel to the finish, and Kinne just couldn't reel him in on the final straightaway. One of the craziest XC races I've seen since Brophy reeled in Hoey on the final stretch in the last 50 meters in 2015.
-Super pumped about Brayden Harris! Knew this kid was going to have a big day, but 4th was incredible.
-McComb and Demis. Tough day for D1. McComb looked like he never really got in it, whereas Demis dearly paid the price for trying to runaway from the NA boys early. While it didn't pay off, I respect the move by Demis. He and McComb both had great seasons and were PA's shining stars at Manhattan.
-Gotta give credit to LaSalle. I really slighted them when I predicted they'd finish 5th. I just didn't think they were going to show up, but they packed up, and were 20 points or so off a state title repeat.
-The top 6 teams in AAA really separated themselves from the rest of the state. I think these were the squads we all gave some shot of finding the podium, and we saw why. If Chamoun and Barnhill replicate their D1 performance, Dwest wins this thing with 85 points or so. Lots of talent all around from all these teams.
-Weird fact I found interesting. Embrace your training partners! 4 team duos made up a large part of the top 14! Ketler/Owori, Dorenkamp/Miller, McGoey/Kinne, and Harris/Macknair all finished in the top 14 of AAA. Kudos to these guys.
All of these and many more headlines to come in the next couple days! Thanks for hanging around the PAXC scene for yet another year!
-The RunningHub
Friday, November 2, 2018
PIAA AAA State Championship Predictions
The last of our PAXC previews for the 2018 fall (yes, regionals will get love). After a few years of being graced with the likes of Hoeys, Affolders, and guys like Kujdych and Brophy, its fair to say that for the first time in awhile, there is no household name in PA. Sure, Zach Kinne has come from the Midwest and shown us his incredible talent, but as we have entered the postseason, he surely has faltered. Of course, his teammate Dan McGoey is a powerhouse in his own right, returning to the Hershey course after finishing 3rd as just a sophomore. There is undoubtedly a group of PA guys who have done remarkable things on the grass and trails this fall. But, even then, we are not used to this wide open of a field. In 2017, we saw two perennial names in our sport come to do battle. There was the undefeated Pittsburgher in Noah Beveridge, who, despite having not lost, wasn't even the favorite. His eastern PA counterpart, Rusty Kujdych, had lost only to the eventual national champions from Loudon Valley, and an individual Foot Locker qualifier in Dalton Hengst. In 2016, we were graced with the arrival of Noah Affolder, who of course, went on to win the regional Foot Locker meet, and suffered his only loss of the season at Foot Locker. And lastly, we had the fortune of watching Jake Brophy secure back to back state titles over the Hoey brothers in 2015, who are, you know, professionals now.
The point I'm trying to make is that while we may not have some of the firepower up front that PA is used to, we certainly have the same amount of excitement to prepare for in just 24 hours. The team race is wide open as its been in 5+ years, and frankly, I think people are becoming just as torn on the individual race as well. I hope all of you are pumped about these races as I am. Seeing them in person is going to be a blast. ;)
Team Race:
As we reflect back on last week's district results, every team around the top has a reason to come into this race very confident. For LaSalle, they solo'd some extremely quick times on the tough Belmont course, and Twomey looks to be getting back to his regular form back in the front of his team's lineup.
For Dwest, after a really tough struggle at Manhattan, they bounced back beautifully at the District 1 meet, scoring just 71 points, the 2nd lowest winning score in the past 5 years (CRN with 53 in 2016, eventually won the state title). They're deep through 7 guys (just look at the JV race), and Barnhill is slowly starting to move up on Sewall and Valderrabano as just a sophomore. This an extremely experienced group and is absolutely capable of running away with this thing.
The talk over North Allegheny should not be about the struggles of Zach Kinne, but rather, the fact that the Tigers comfortably beat Seneca Valley and Mount Lebabnon in a race where Kinne gave up 7 points he wouldn't normally. If Kinne runs normally, NA wins WPIALS by almost 30 points, and people would practically hand the title to NA. Frankly, I think we're in a very similar situation on the statewide scale. I think despite the talent on Dwest and LaSalle, if Kinne finishes top 3 in this race with McGoey, NA will win. People are quick to say Kinne "can't run hills" after his Cal U struggles, but people are also quick to forget how comfortably he won Foundation. The backend of NA's varsity squad has made great progress, and I think they are less and less of a liability than people make them out to be.
My next tier of teams is Unionville, Mount Lebanon, and Seneca Valley. These are the teams that on paper, aren't on the level of the 3 teams above, but all have the ability to sneak their way onto the podium. For teams like Mount Lebanon and Seneca Valley, we frankly don't know how the eastern PA teams will match up. If it just so happens that the WPIAL teams are better than we thought because they've been going up against each other all year, there is the chance that SV and Mt Lebo fight off Dwest and LaSalle for the podium. Do I think this is the case? No, its unlikely, but not impossible. More specifically though, the bounce back race for Ketler at WPIALS is super promising for SV. They almost took down North Allegheny at Foundation back when Ketler was still struggling, so this could be a big shocker. It should also be noted that Owori and Ketler have as much experience on Hershey's course as just about anyone. On the contrary, Anderson and Consentino have been lights out for Lebo. If we're following the pattern so far this year, then maybe the script will be flipped yet again between Seneca Valley and Mount Lebanon. Unionville is the big x-factor in this race. Their biggest flaw, their 5th man, will actually hurt them less at states, as it is a smaller race than District 1. Plus, their 5th man Jarrett Conway, is riding a ton of momentum and has the chance to make another jump. With the possibility of Unionville putting 3 in the top 15 of this race, if the Conway brothers replicate their district performances, Unionville could go and win this whole dang thing.
Other teams to keep an eye on are State College, Haverford Township, and Cedar Crest. State College was considered a team in AAA right behind the likes of Mt. Lebo all season, so just because we haven't seen a lot from them recently, who's to say that they still couldn't crack into the top 5? I don't think Haverford had their best day at D1's, and their mix of depth and frontrunning should not be ignored. They have a very deep pack, and Donnelly's chances for a top 15 finish aren't low. Truthfully, all of the District 1 teams should be on your radar. In years like this where D1 isn't dominant up at the front, they can usually be found putting all 5 teams in the top 9 or so. Cedar Crest deserves a shoutout because I think their win says more than just how talented they are. In gritty conditions that made some really talented teams crack in D3, despite their youth and inexperience, Cedar Crest powered through and ended up comfortably winning the district. I don't think they're primed with enough talent to finish very high in the team race, but with rain in the forecast tonight into tomorrow morning, if that course isn't in great shape, who knows, maybe they'll sneak their way towards the front.
1. North Allegheny
2. Downingtown West
3. Unionville
4. Seneca Valley
5. LaSalle College
6. Mount Lebanon
7. Haverford Township
8. State College
9. Council Rock South
10. Owen J Roberts
Individual Race:
Although much of it has been discussed, I think this race will eventually fall into the hands of the western PA guys. With that being said, the reason I put so many eastern PA teams near the front of the team race is because I expect some big time blowups from some WPIAL guys. Whether people realize it or not, I think running that Cal U course two weeks in a row for some people can really take a toll. Just look at the D3 curse back when they had to run the harder rendition of Hershey's course for districts. I don't think Walker, Sewall, and Demis quite have the fitness to hang with someone like McGoey, but of course, that's why we run the race. I think the two big names to watch here are Tyler Wirth and Brayden Harris. Wirth was 5th in this race last year, and because of few underwhelming performances this year, has gotten grossly overlooked. This dude is a beast at Hershey and could be the one kid that hangs around the front longer than everyone expects. I think Brayden Harris has quietly had one of the best seasons in Pennsylvania. He has absolutely turned it on down the home stretch of the season, winning Gettysburg, Mid-Penn's, and then eventually the D6 title. He might not as big of a name as some of these other guys, but if he trusts his fitness, I think he is absolutely capable of hanging around the top 5. Obviously, there are the other big WPIAL names to watch. Owori, Ketler, Fitch, ad Leachman will all be in the hunt for top 10 finishes. Who knows which D3 guys will show up in this one. Knepper, Wisner, Dorenkamp, and a host of others could shock us with a high finish. At the end of the day, I think a lot of people are picking against Kinne, so I'm gonna go with my gut and take his side. While he might be lacking some confidence mentally, if he gets out on that course and remembers how he ran at Foundation, he can win this state title. All I know is, whoever comes up that hill tomorrow first, is in for a life-changing experience. While track always provides some great hype, there's something about hitting that final straightaway at Hershey with the PIAA banners hanging over the fences, and the crowd going crazy, that makes it really special for the winner. Good luck to all. Cheers.
1. Zach Kinne
2. Dan McGoey
3. Christian McComb
4. Tyler Wirth
5. Noah Demis
6. Patrick Anderson
7. Cole Walker
8. Brayden Harris
9. Sam Owori
10. Christian Fitch
11. Payton Sewall
12. Seth Ketler
13. Ethan McIntyre
14. Zach Leachman
15. Chayce Macknair
16. Jack Wisner
17. Evan Dorenkamp
18. Peter Consentino
19. Mike Donnelly
20. Vincent Twomey
21. Connor Shields
22. Patrick Theveny
23. Rob O'Brien
24. Isaac Valderrabano
25. Cole Driver
-The RunningHub
The point I'm trying to make is that while we may not have some of the firepower up front that PA is used to, we certainly have the same amount of excitement to prepare for in just 24 hours. The team race is wide open as its been in 5+ years, and frankly, I think people are becoming just as torn on the individual race as well. I hope all of you are pumped about these races as I am. Seeing them in person is going to be a blast. ;)
Team Race:
As we reflect back on last week's district results, every team around the top has a reason to come into this race very confident. For LaSalle, they solo'd some extremely quick times on the tough Belmont course, and Twomey looks to be getting back to his regular form back in the front of his team's lineup.
For Dwest, after a really tough struggle at Manhattan, they bounced back beautifully at the District 1 meet, scoring just 71 points, the 2nd lowest winning score in the past 5 years (CRN with 53 in 2016, eventually won the state title). They're deep through 7 guys (just look at the JV race), and Barnhill is slowly starting to move up on Sewall and Valderrabano as just a sophomore. This an extremely experienced group and is absolutely capable of running away with this thing.
The talk over North Allegheny should not be about the struggles of Zach Kinne, but rather, the fact that the Tigers comfortably beat Seneca Valley and Mount Lebabnon in a race where Kinne gave up 7 points he wouldn't normally. If Kinne runs normally, NA wins WPIALS by almost 30 points, and people would practically hand the title to NA. Frankly, I think we're in a very similar situation on the statewide scale. I think despite the talent on Dwest and LaSalle, if Kinne finishes top 3 in this race with McGoey, NA will win. People are quick to say Kinne "can't run hills" after his Cal U struggles, but people are also quick to forget how comfortably he won Foundation. The backend of NA's varsity squad has made great progress, and I think they are less and less of a liability than people make them out to be.
My next tier of teams is Unionville, Mount Lebanon, and Seneca Valley. These are the teams that on paper, aren't on the level of the 3 teams above, but all have the ability to sneak their way onto the podium. For teams like Mount Lebanon and Seneca Valley, we frankly don't know how the eastern PA teams will match up. If it just so happens that the WPIAL teams are better than we thought because they've been going up against each other all year, there is the chance that SV and Mt Lebo fight off Dwest and LaSalle for the podium. Do I think this is the case? No, its unlikely, but not impossible. More specifically though, the bounce back race for Ketler at WPIALS is super promising for SV. They almost took down North Allegheny at Foundation back when Ketler was still struggling, so this could be a big shocker. It should also be noted that Owori and Ketler have as much experience on Hershey's course as just about anyone. On the contrary, Anderson and Consentino have been lights out for Lebo. If we're following the pattern so far this year, then maybe the script will be flipped yet again between Seneca Valley and Mount Lebanon. Unionville is the big x-factor in this race. Their biggest flaw, their 5th man, will actually hurt them less at states, as it is a smaller race than District 1. Plus, their 5th man Jarrett Conway, is riding a ton of momentum and has the chance to make another jump. With the possibility of Unionville putting 3 in the top 15 of this race, if the Conway brothers replicate their district performances, Unionville could go and win this whole dang thing.
Other teams to keep an eye on are State College, Haverford Township, and Cedar Crest. State College was considered a team in AAA right behind the likes of Mt. Lebo all season, so just because we haven't seen a lot from them recently, who's to say that they still couldn't crack into the top 5? I don't think Haverford had their best day at D1's, and their mix of depth and frontrunning should not be ignored. They have a very deep pack, and Donnelly's chances for a top 15 finish aren't low. Truthfully, all of the District 1 teams should be on your radar. In years like this where D1 isn't dominant up at the front, they can usually be found putting all 5 teams in the top 9 or so. Cedar Crest deserves a shoutout because I think their win says more than just how talented they are. In gritty conditions that made some really talented teams crack in D3, despite their youth and inexperience, Cedar Crest powered through and ended up comfortably winning the district. I don't think they're primed with enough talent to finish very high in the team race, but with rain in the forecast tonight into tomorrow morning, if that course isn't in great shape, who knows, maybe they'll sneak their way towards the front.
1. North Allegheny
2. Downingtown West
3. Unionville
4. Seneca Valley
5. LaSalle College
6. Mount Lebanon
7. Haverford Township
8. State College
9. Council Rock South
10. Owen J Roberts
Individual Race:
Although much of it has been discussed, I think this race will eventually fall into the hands of the western PA guys. With that being said, the reason I put so many eastern PA teams near the front of the team race is because I expect some big time blowups from some WPIAL guys. Whether people realize it or not, I think running that Cal U course two weeks in a row for some people can really take a toll. Just look at the D3 curse back when they had to run the harder rendition of Hershey's course for districts. I don't think Walker, Sewall, and Demis quite have the fitness to hang with someone like McGoey, but of course, that's why we run the race. I think the two big names to watch here are Tyler Wirth and Brayden Harris. Wirth was 5th in this race last year, and because of few underwhelming performances this year, has gotten grossly overlooked. This dude is a beast at Hershey and could be the one kid that hangs around the front longer than everyone expects. I think Brayden Harris has quietly had one of the best seasons in Pennsylvania. He has absolutely turned it on down the home stretch of the season, winning Gettysburg, Mid-Penn's, and then eventually the D6 title. He might not as big of a name as some of these other guys, but if he trusts his fitness, I think he is absolutely capable of hanging around the top 5. Obviously, there are the other big WPIAL names to watch. Owori, Ketler, Fitch, ad Leachman will all be in the hunt for top 10 finishes. Who knows which D3 guys will show up in this one. Knepper, Wisner, Dorenkamp, and a host of others could shock us with a high finish. At the end of the day, I think a lot of people are picking against Kinne, so I'm gonna go with my gut and take his side. While he might be lacking some confidence mentally, if he gets out on that course and remembers how he ran at Foundation, he can win this state title. All I know is, whoever comes up that hill tomorrow first, is in for a life-changing experience. While track always provides some great hype, there's something about hitting that final straightaway at Hershey with the PIAA banners hanging over the fences, and the crowd going crazy, that makes it really special for the winner. Good luck to all. Cheers.
1. Zach Kinne
2. Dan McGoey
3. Christian McComb
4. Tyler Wirth
5. Noah Demis
6. Patrick Anderson
7. Cole Walker
8. Brayden Harris
9. Sam Owori
10. Christian Fitch
11. Payton Sewall
12. Seth Ketler
13. Ethan McIntyre
14. Zach Leachman
15. Chayce Macknair
16. Jack Wisner
17. Evan Dorenkamp
18. Peter Consentino
19. Mike Donnelly
20. Vincent Twomey
21. Connor Shields
22. Patrick Theveny
23. Rob O'Brien
24. Isaac Valderrabano
25. Cole Driver
-The RunningHub
Thursday, November 1, 2018
PIAA AA State Championship Predictions
The AA field in PA this year has been an interesting one in that, none of the teams from last year's top 4 are really in contention to win this thing (Don't make me pay for that York Suburban). The top teams to watch for on Saturday are programs that have built up the same group of guys over the past few years and are ready to unleash their squad at full strength. The storyline of the individual race seems to be guys who have incredible resumes on the track, and are just waiting to finally have it translate over to XC. Lewis, Baublitz, and Powell have all done remarkable things on the oval, and they are among a host of others who will look to finally claim dominance on the grass.
Team Race:
While I sat down writing this to talk about the battle between Greensburg Salem and Grove City, I began to really take a closer look at this AA field, and I realized that this one is much more up in the air than I thought. While GS and Grove City are both likely the top 2 finishers, there are roughly 6 other top teams that I think could crack into the top 3. Lewisburg, Indiana Area, New Castle, Pope John Paul II, Holy Redeemer, and York Suburban. In what is obviously a very crowded team race, I could foresee 3rd through 9th being separated by less than 50 points. Sorting through this mess is just pure madness.
Lets start with our two favorites. Grove City has had an unorthodox approach to their weeks leading up the postseason. They've had weeks where they rested the entire varsity squad except for Powell, and they've had other weeks where they've run the "A" team without Powell. The team has won without him, and Powell has won without his squad. Clearly, this team is primed for one big show when the full squad is on display. Tobias Jones and Joseph Somora are a solid #2-#3 punch, and this team's 5 is simply very complete. I think the question will be if Greensburg Salem's trio can run well enough to give enough of a cushion for their 4th and 5th man to hold off Grove City. If The Binda's and Brown can give Greensburg Salem a 35-40 point lead through 3 guys, I think the GS boys can take this one. I think Somora and Jones will be hovering right outside of the medals, and if one of them could sneak into the top 25, then the title leans in favor of Grove City. While you can lean this battle one way or the other, I think if the Greensburg Salem trio can keep themselves under 25 points, they'll win the state title.
Lewisburg is an intriguing team in the grand scheme. They really haven't been challenged since they lost to State College at PSU way back in the early season. Freshman phenom Jacob Hess has the chance to break into the top 10 in this race, which could give this team a huge lift. I think logistically speaking, Lewisburg is one of the safest bets for a high finish, but one of the least likely to crack the top 2. They're set up very similarly to Greensburg Salem with a great top 3, and a drop off to their last two scorers. Lewisburg's trio just isn't quite as strong as GS's, so on paper, its hard to imagine Lewisburg finding themselves on the podium.
Indiana Area and New Castle will be interesting to watch. The fact that both teams finished within 50 points of Greensburg Salem at WPIALS in a 30 team race is promising. Both teams have raced a lot this year, but show no signs of tiring. Indiana's Matt Berzonsky reminds me of Collin Ochs in a few different ways. They both started the season off red hot, towards the front of their squad. Although both teams have improved, they gradually slid their way back on their team's respective varsity order. I repeatedly said, if Ochs' returned to his normal form, CR South would jump from being solid, to being an elite squad. Well sure enough, CR South finished 3rd in D1, with Ochs leading the way. If Berzonsky moves back up towards Budjos in this race on Saturday, I think Indiana is one of the few squads that has a small chance to shock the field and sneak onto the podium. New Castle is a huge question mark. They came into WPIALS undefeated, and held their own after they finally faced stiff competition. Litrenta has been a great ace for this squad. As for how the rest of the scoring 5 will respond to such a drastic jump in competition is anyone's guess.
Teams like Pope John Paul II and Holy Redeemer are also key squads to be watching as we head into Saturday. With all the AA craziness in D7 and D10, these two squads have quietly had great seasons. They finished 5th and 6th at Foundation, and both absolutely dominated their respective district meets. I think PJP's duo of Jacks, Brosius and Phillips, are much improved from when they last raced at Hershey, whereas Holy Redeemer's Bryce Zapusek has pulled this entire scoring 5 down with him. With Zapusek in the hunt for a medal, and this team's spread hovering right around 30 seconds, Holy Redeemer is my big sleeper to stun PA with a podium finish. PJP's depth on this challenging Hershey course worries me a little. I feel shaky about placing them higher than possibly 5th, but they're certainly riding a ton of momentum from last week.
York Suburban, like always, should not be ruled out for a podium finish. They took care of a solid Wyomissing squad in crazy conditions over at D3. It seems like every year YS has some new talented freshman we're talking about. Well, this year they have two. The top two guys for York Suburban at the District 3 meet were freshmen Cole Adams and Shea Walsh, with Raudensky and Shaffer both having bad days. If this top 4 all shows up on Saturday, I think they're one of the most complete teams in all of AA. They're basically deep through 7, ad Raudensky was a top 10 finisher at states last year. Despite what I said about them being out of contention for the title, the more I sit here and look over this race, the more I think York Suburban has the best chance to steal this thing from the top 2.
1. Greensburg Salem
2. Grove City
3. York Suburban
4. Holy Redeemer
5. Indiana Area
6. Lewisburg Area
7. Pope John Paul II
8. North East
9. New Castle
10. Wyomissing
Individual Race:
All season long, I've thought Josh Lewis was going to win this thing. He's been unstoppable, going undefeated through some big time meets before faltering at his D10 meet last week. I think Lewis has all the right weapons to win this race. He won Foundation, he almost ran as fast as McGoey and Kinne out in Ohio, and he showcased some leg speed, racing to a 15:43 PR two weeks before the District 10 meet. Knowing how crazy the conditions were at D10, the race could easily be thrown out as a fluke. There is very little reason to pick against Josh Lewis to win this race.
I think Jonah Powell is going to steal it from him.
There's something about the way Powell has prepared in the past few weeks that makes me lean in his favor. He and his coaches have handpicked the weeks he's rested and raced, regardless of what his team is doing. I'm usually anti straying away from your team, but it seems like the Grove City program has a very specific purpose behind when certain guys race or rest. From an obvious standpoint, Powell won the D10 meet last week. It should be noted that since losing to Lewis at Foundation, Powell has won every meet since. I think this is one of those things where no matter the numbers or data, I have a hunch that Powell is breaking the tape.
But obviously, there are more athletes in the race than just 2 people. Garrett Baublitz was 3rd behind these two at Foundation. He's had an up and down season, but the Juniata junior has a history of coming up big in the postseason. He lost to Logan Horst way back at Ben Bloser, but I think he finishes back in the top 3 just like Foundation.
The rest of the big names are a lot of D10 and D7 guys. Obviously the GS guys will be in the mix. Mark Brown and Cameron Binda will be shooting for the top 5. Aidan Weber will be without his teammate Starvaggi, but should be primed for a big race nonetheless. The aforementioned Horst took down Baublitz earlier this year, and should not be forgotten about. I really like Mitchell Rome in this race. He has progressively gotten better and better throughout the season, and blew the doors off of his district race, winning by over 40 seconds. He only ran a few seconds last year when he was being pushed, and only got 3rd. I think he has the chance to take down Baublitz for a top 3 spot in this race. I think the last group of names to watch are the General McLane duo of Price and Throop, Quintana of Loyalsock, Koons (big D11 champ), and Daniel Ford.
1. Jonah Powell
2. Josh Lewis
3. Mitchell Rome
4. Garrett Baublitz
5. Mark Brown
6. Dylan Throop
7. Alejandro Quintana
8. Cameron Binda
9. Ben Kuhn
10. Aidan Weber
11. Nate Price
12. Logan Strouse
13. Jacob Hess
14. John Koons
15. Jarrett Raudensky
16. Daniel Ford
17. Jack Aulbach
18. Patrick Stevens
19. Dylan Binda
20. Bryce Zapusek
21. Van May
22. Tobias Jones
23. Anthony Litrenta
24. Cole Adams
25. Aidan Doherty
Lets start with our two favorites. Grove City has had an unorthodox approach to their weeks leading up the postseason. They've had weeks where they rested the entire varsity squad except for Powell, and they've had other weeks where they've run the "A" team without Powell. The team has won without him, and Powell has won without his squad. Clearly, this team is primed for one big show when the full squad is on display. Tobias Jones and Joseph Somora are a solid #2-#3 punch, and this team's 5 is simply very complete. I think the question will be if Greensburg Salem's trio can run well enough to give enough of a cushion for their 4th and 5th man to hold off Grove City. If The Binda's and Brown can give Greensburg Salem a 35-40 point lead through 3 guys, I think the GS boys can take this one. I think Somora and Jones will be hovering right outside of the medals, and if one of them could sneak into the top 25, then the title leans in favor of Grove City. While you can lean this battle one way or the other, I think if the Greensburg Salem trio can keep themselves under 25 points, they'll win the state title.
Lewisburg is an intriguing team in the grand scheme. They really haven't been challenged since they lost to State College at PSU way back in the early season. Freshman phenom Jacob Hess has the chance to break into the top 10 in this race, which could give this team a huge lift. I think logistically speaking, Lewisburg is one of the safest bets for a high finish, but one of the least likely to crack the top 2. They're set up very similarly to Greensburg Salem with a great top 3, and a drop off to their last two scorers. Lewisburg's trio just isn't quite as strong as GS's, so on paper, its hard to imagine Lewisburg finding themselves on the podium.
Indiana Area and New Castle will be interesting to watch. The fact that both teams finished within 50 points of Greensburg Salem at WPIALS in a 30 team race is promising. Both teams have raced a lot this year, but show no signs of tiring. Indiana's Matt Berzonsky reminds me of Collin Ochs in a few different ways. They both started the season off red hot, towards the front of their squad. Although both teams have improved, they gradually slid their way back on their team's respective varsity order. I repeatedly said, if Ochs' returned to his normal form, CR South would jump from being solid, to being an elite squad. Well sure enough, CR South finished 3rd in D1, with Ochs leading the way. If Berzonsky moves back up towards Budjos in this race on Saturday, I think Indiana is one of the few squads that has a small chance to shock the field and sneak onto the podium. New Castle is a huge question mark. They came into WPIALS undefeated, and held their own after they finally faced stiff competition. Litrenta has been a great ace for this squad. As for how the rest of the scoring 5 will respond to such a drastic jump in competition is anyone's guess.
Teams like Pope John Paul II and Holy Redeemer are also key squads to be watching as we head into Saturday. With all the AA craziness in D7 and D10, these two squads have quietly had great seasons. They finished 5th and 6th at Foundation, and both absolutely dominated their respective district meets. I think PJP's duo of Jacks, Brosius and Phillips, are much improved from when they last raced at Hershey, whereas Holy Redeemer's Bryce Zapusek has pulled this entire scoring 5 down with him. With Zapusek in the hunt for a medal, and this team's spread hovering right around 30 seconds, Holy Redeemer is my big sleeper to stun PA with a podium finish. PJP's depth on this challenging Hershey course worries me a little. I feel shaky about placing them higher than possibly 5th, but they're certainly riding a ton of momentum from last week.
York Suburban, like always, should not be ruled out for a podium finish. They took care of a solid Wyomissing squad in crazy conditions over at D3. It seems like every year YS has some new talented freshman we're talking about. Well, this year they have two. The top two guys for York Suburban at the District 3 meet were freshmen Cole Adams and Shea Walsh, with Raudensky and Shaffer both having bad days. If this top 4 all shows up on Saturday, I think they're one of the most complete teams in all of AA. They're basically deep through 7, ad Raudensky was a top 10 finisher at states last year. Despite what I said about them being out of contention for the title, the more I sit here and look over this race, the more I think York Suburban has the best chance to steal this thing from the top 2.
1. Greensburg Salem
2. Grove City
3. York Suburban
4. Holy Redeemer
5. Indiana Area
6. Lewisburg Area
7. Pope John Paul II
8. North East
9. New Castle
10. Wyomissing
Individual Race:
All season long, I've thought Josh Lewis was going to win this thing. He's been unstoppable, going undefeated through some big time meets before faltering at his D10 meet last week. I think Lewis has all the right weapons to win this race. He won Foundation, he almost ran as fast as McGoey and Kinne out in Ohio, and he showcased some leg speed, racing to a 15:43 PR two weeks before the District 10 meet. Knowing how crazy the conditions were at D10, the race could easily be thrown out as a fluke. There is very little reason to pick against Josh Lewis to win this race.
I think Jonah Powell is going to steal it from him.
There's something about the way Powell has prepared in the past few weeks that makes me lean in his favor. He and his coaches have handpicked the weeks he's rested and raced, regardless of what his team is doing. I'm usually anti straying away from your team, but it seems like the Grove City program has a very specific purpose behind when certain guys race or rest. From an obvious standpoint, Powell won the D10 meet last week. It should be noted that since losing to Lewis at Foundation, Powell has won every meet since. I think this is one of those things where no matter the numbers or data, I have a hunch that Powell is breaking the tape.
But obviously, there are more athletes in the race than just 2 people. Garrett Baublitz was 3rd behind these two at Foundation. He's had an up and down season, but the Juniata junior has a history of coming up big in the postseason. He lost to Logan Horst way back at Ben Bloser, but I think he finishes back in the top 3 just like Foundation.
The rest of the big names are a lot of D10 and D7 guys. Obviously the GS guys will be in the mix. Mark Brown and Cameron Binda will be shooting for the top 5. Aidan Weber will be without his teammate Starvaggi, but should be primed for a big race nonetheless. The aforementioned Horst took down Baublitz earlier this year, and should not be forgotten about. I really like Mitchell Rome in this race. He has progressively gotten better and better throughout the season, and blew the doors off of his district race, winning by over 40 seconds. He only ran a few seconds last year when he was being pushed, and only got 3rd. I think he has the chance to take down Baublitz for a top 3 spot in this race. I think the last group of names to watch are the General McLane duo of Price and Throop, Quintana of Loyalsock, Koons (big D11 champ), and Daniel Ford.
1. Jonah Powell
2. Josh Lewis
3. Mitchell Rome
4. Garrett Baublitz
5. Mark Brown
6. Dylan Throop
7. Alejandro Quintana
8. Cameron Binda
9. Ben Kuhn
10. Aidan Weber
11. Nate Price
12. Logan Strouse
13. Jacob Hess
14. John Koons
15. Jarrett Raudensky
16. Daniel Ford
17. Jack Aulbach
18. Patrick Stevens
19. Dylan Binda
20. Bryce Zapusek
21. Van May
22. Tobias Jones
23. Anthony Litrenta
24. Cole Adams
25. Aidan Doherty
Wednesday, October 31, 2018
PIAA A State Championship Predictions
It is truly hard to believe that states week is upon us! I suppose time really does fly when you're having fun. As has been pointed out by a handful throughout these past few weeks, although the A classification is still in its early years, this could be a historic year for the smaller school division. With a debate over whether or not Jenkintown is the best team in A history, coupled with the fact that some don't even think they're a lock for the title, shows just how competitive these small schools have gotten over the years. Without any further hesitation, lets start crunching the numbers!
Team Race:
Although I said that some people aren't ready to hand the title to Jenkintown, I am not one of those people. I have simply seen too many impressive performances from this squad to have any doubts in my mind that they will lose this state championship. Their top 4 of the Millers, Wagner, and Geer is just absolutely electric. I think they could honestly put 4 in front of Winchester Thurston's #2 (Heintzleman) and seal the deal early on. Obviously Jenkintown's 5th man is their weakness, but if you have the capability of putting 4 in the top 15 at the state meet, your odds of winning are pretty damn high.
Obviously, Winchester Thurston has their hands full here. Lets look at how they have any realistic shot at stealing this thing. With Sands struggling, if Routledge could snag 2nd amongst team scorers (no Hessler, Healey, etc.), that would be a great start. If Heintzleman can pull Malone (WT #3) with him, and avoid having Jenkintown putting 4 in front of them, this could easily make this a close race. Both teams aren't incredibly solid through 5, so a blow up from Jenkintown's back half of their scoring could give this one to Winchester Thurston. After all of that, I still have Jenkintown taking it by 20 or so points. I think the best chance for WT would be for Henitzleman and Malone to have lifetime races and make a push for the top 10 instead of just the top 20.
As much as we have glorified the team matchup between WT and Jenkintown, there are some other really solid programs that we have continually mentioned throughout the course of the season. I think outside of the two aforementioned programs, Montrose and Wyalusing Valley are our big sleepers watch. WVA ran very well at Foundation, and while they hit a rough patch in early October, they've been looking better and better as we approach the postseason. They have an incredible top 3 of Heeman, Patton, and Laudermilch, and like so many other schools in A, lack a 5th man. Caleb Stoddard, only a freshman, has started to make some big progress in the past few weeks for WVA. If this kid rides some momentum and lands a high finish as WVA's #5, they could very realistically take down WT.
Montrose is in a very similar situation. In incredibly muddy, cold conditions, they scored just 30 points in D2 over decent teams in Elk Lake and Holy Cross. Their ability to run in tough conditions makes them a very desirable team to pick as we turn toward the Hershey hills on Saturday. I don't think they have quite enough firepower up front to catch a team like WT, but they'll certainly be within striking distance. If WT blows up and WVA's 5th man doesn't show up, Montrose could suddenly find themselves on the podium.
I'd say lastly watch for Cochranton and Cranberry. I feel confident about the 4 teams listed above, but these two programs should not be forgotten about. Cochranton has been lurking around the top of the state rankings all year, and Cranberry nearly stole a district title from them last week. I really like Cochranton's duo of Jac Cokley and Noah Bernarding, while Cranberry simply has a really reliable 5 guys. If just one guy steps up out of the ordinary, Cranberry could slide into the top 4.
1. Jenkintown
2. Wyalusing Valley Area
3. Winchester Thurston
4. Montrose
5. Cranberry
6. Cochranton
7. Penns Valley
Wyalusing Valley Area probably has no business being in 2nd, but I really like their top 3, and I can't forget how well they ran at Foundation (go look how well they moved up in the 2nd half of the race). If I didn't make it clear before, Jenkintown is not losing this race. Cranberry flips the script on Cochranton, and makes it a really close race with Montrose for 4th.
Individuals:
The talk of A all year has been the trio up front of Healey, Miller, and Sands. As we enter the final weekend of PAXC, this trio is still intact, but there are definitely some changes from when these guys raced at Foundation. I'm worried about Sands after last weekend, and Miller has just been nothing but incredible this fall. I think only in some freak scenario, does Miller not win this. It is his race to lose. As long as he is confident in his own fitness, he should have no doubts about losing this race. Obviously, Healey will look to challenge, and Adam Hessler is not to be ignored. Despite all the talk of Routledge out west, Hessler has now taken him down in back to back weeks and is wearing the WPIAL crown. I don't think he has quite enough raw talent to steal this one from Miller, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this kid come onto the final straightaway in 2nd. Alongside Sands is his teammate Brendan Colwell, who, despite racing under Sands' shadow for over a year now, has the chance to steal the spotlight for once after his district title last week. Although Healey won his district meet, Liam Mead did not let him off easy. With team implications in play as well for Mead, the Montrose senior has the chance to be the hero for his squad with a big finish. Throw in the names of some solid district champs in Ethan Knoebel, Ian Zimmerman, and Christian Tanner, and we've got ourselves a sneaky crowded race up front in A. Going to be fun folks.
1. Jack Miller
2. Adam Hessler
3. Andrew Healey
4. Colton Sands
5. Scott Routledge
6. Liam Mead
7. Ethan Knoebel
8. Brendan Colwell
9. Luke Miller
10. Ian Zimmerman
11. Kevin Heeman
12. Ben Hoffman
13. Zachary Gould
14. Peyton Jones
15. Pat Wagner
16. Carter Kaufman
17. Christian Tanner
18. Kemuel Laudermilch
19. Mason Ochs
20. Wayne Reilly
21. Carter Geer
22. Jac Cokley
23. Sean Heintzleman
24. Nathaniel Lerch
25. Troy Hart
Team Race:
Although I said that some people aren't ready to hand the title to Jenkintown, I am not one of those people. I have simply seen too many impressive performances from this squad to have any doubts in my mind that they will lose this state championship. Their top 4 of the Millers, Wagner, and Geer is just absolutely electric. I think they could honestly put 4 in front of Winchester Thurston's #2 (Heintzleman) and seal the deal early on. Obviously Jenkintown's 5th man is their weakness, but if you have the capability of putting 4 in the top 15 at the state meet, your odds of winning are pretty damn high.
Obviously, Winchester Thurston has their hands full here. Lets look at how they have any realistic shot at stealing this thing. With Sands struggling, if Routledge could snag 2nd amongst team scorers (no Hessler, Healey, etc.), that would be a great start. If Heintzleman can pull Malone (WT #3) with him, and avoid having Jenkintown putting 4 in front of them, this could easily make this a close race. Both teams aren't incredibly solid through 5, so a blow up from Jenkintown's back half of their scoring could give this one to Winchester Thurston. After all of that, I still have Jenkintown taking it by 20 or so points. I think the best chance for WT would be for Henitzleman and Malone to have lifetime races and make a push for the top 10 instead of just the top 20.
As much as we have glorified the team matchup between WT and Jenkintown, there are some other really solid programs that we have continually mentioned throughout the course of the season. I think outside of the two aforementioned programs, Montrose and Wyalusing Valley are our big sleepers watch. WVA ran very well at Foundation, and while they hit a rough patch in early October, they've been looking better and better as we approach the postseason. They have an incredible top 3 of Heeman, Patton, and Laudermilch, and like so many other schools in A, lack a 5th man. Caleb Stoddard, only a freshman, has started to make some big progress in the past few weeks for WVA. If this kid rides some momentum and lands a high finish as WVA's #5, they could very realistically take down WT.
Montrose is in a very similar situation. In incredibly muddy, cold conditions, they scored just 30 points in D2 over decent teams in Elk Lake and Holy Cross. Their ability to run in tough conditions makes them a very desirable team to pick as we turn toward the Hershey hills on Saturday. I don't think they have quite enough firepower up front to catch a team like WT, but they'll certainly be within striking distance. If WT blows up and WVA's 5th man doesn't show up, Montrose could suddenly find themselves on the podium.
I'd say lastly watch for Cochranton and Cranberry. I feel confident about the 4 teams listed above, but these two programs should not be forgotten about. Cochranton has been lurking around the top of the state rankings all year, and Cranberry nearly stole a district title from them last week. I really like Cochranton's duo of Jac Cokley and Noah Bernarding, while Cranberry simply has a really reliable 5 guys. If just one guy steps up out of the ordinary, Cranberry could slide into the top 4.
1. Jenkintown
2. Wyalusing Valley Area
3. Winchester Thurston
4. Montrose
5. Cranberry
6. Cochranton
7. Penns Valley
Wyalusing Valley Area probably has no business being in 2nd, but I really like their top 3, and I can't forget how well they ran at Foundation (go look how well they moved up in the 2nd half of the race). If I didn't make it clear before, Jenkintown is not losing this race. Cranberry flips the script on Cochranton, and makes it a really close race with Montrose for 4th.
Individuals:
The talk of A all year has been the trio up front of Healey, Miller, and Sands. As we enter the final weekend of PAXC, this trio is still intact, but there are definitely some changes from when these guys raced at Foundation. I'm worried about Sands after last weekend, and Miller has just been nothing but incredible this fall. I think only in some freak scenario, does Miller not win this. It is his race to lose. As long as he is confident in his own fitness, he should have no doubts about losing this race. Obviously, Healey will look to challenge, and Adam Hessler is not to be ignored. Despite all the talk of Routledge out west, Hessler has now taken him down in back to back weeks and is wearing the WPIAL crown. I don't think he has quite enough raw talent to steal this one from Miller, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this kid come onto the final straightaway in 2nd. Alongside Sands is his teammate Brendan Colwell, who, despite racing under Sands' shadow for over a year now, has the chance to steal the spotlight for once after his district title last week. Although Healey won his district meet, Liam Mead did not let him off easy. With team implications in play as well for Mead, the Montrose senior has the chance to be the hero for his squad with a big finish. Throw in the names of some solid district champs in Ethan Knoebel, Ian Zimmerman, and Christian Tanner, and we've got ourselves a sneaky crowded race up front in A. Going to be fun folks.
1. Jack Miller
2. Adam Hessler
3. Andrew Healey
4. Colton Sands
5. Scott Routledge
6. Liam Mead
7. Ethan Knoebel
8. Brendan Colwell
9. Luke Miller
10. Ian Zimmerman
11. Kevin Heeman
12. Ben Hoffman
13. Zachary Gould
14. Peyton Jones
15. Pat Wagner
16. Carter Kaufman
17. Christian Tanner
18. Kemuel Laudermilch
19. Mason Ochs
20. Wayne Reilly
21. Carter Geer
22. Jac Cokley
23. Sean Heintzleman
24. Nathaniel Lerch
25. Troy Hart
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