Thursday, September 27, 2018

District 4 and 5 Rankings

D5 A: (SQ Spots: 1)
1- Northern Bradford
2-Windber Area
While no team in this small district has tons of depth, NB has the closest thing to it. They're going to have to hold off Windber Area in their pursuit of a district title, and in this small district, each place is crucial. As of right now, NB seems to have 1-2 locked up with Zimmerman and Sherlock. This 1-2 punch combined with Windber's lack of a 5th man should just about hand the district title to Northern Bradford. In a three team district, the margin of victory isn't going to be large, but Zimmerman and his squad should be headed to Hershey.

D4 A: (SQ Spots: 1)
1- Wyalusing Valley Area
As one of the breakout teams of the year, WVA should have no problem running away with the district title out in D4. Breaking into the top 3 statewide at Foundation, this is a dangerous team this postseason. With a killer trio up top, if WVA can take 3 of the top 5 or 6 spots come districts, the title should be locked up. While teams like South Williamsport and Southern Columbia Area are strong, the lack of firepower past the #1 runner on each team will prevent them from hanging with Wyalusing Valley. I said this in the Foundation recap, but I really liked how Wyalusing Valley ran there, closing the gap on our top 2 A powerhouses in the 2nd half of the race at Hershey. To call them possible upset contenders might be a little crazy as of right now, but I still think there's something exciting to come with this squad.

D4 AA: (SQ Spots:2)
1- Lewisburg Area
While we haven't seen a lot of results from this squad, what they gave us is enough to believe that this is a dangerous team. They were the 2nd place PA team at Spiked Shoe back in early September, and lost to State College by just 32 points. Granted, this was a smaller field in terms of competitiveness up front, but with what we've seen from State College this season, that performance from Lewisburg should not go unnoticed. I don't think anyone knows just how good this team is, so I'm not ready to say they should be up around the top 3 or 4 teams in AA, but with freshman Jacob Hess leading the charge (the kid ran 9:53 as an 8th grader!), we have certainly not seen the last of this Lewisburg team.

2- Warrior Run
Claiming the second state spot out of District 4 is another team that we haven't seen results from in a couple weeks. We haven't seen Warrior Run since their season opener at Bear Mountain Run, but they finished a strong 3rd there, losing only to General McLane and Wyalusing Valley Area. I don't think this team is completely safe because of how fast the Lock Haven course ran to kick the season off, but they're a young team who I still feel comfortable slotting in for 2nd right now. If Damein Moser can step up as a low stick for this young Warrior Run team, they will be able to hold off Shikellamy.

3- Shikellamy
As aforementioned, the Shikellamy squad has some work to do, but they are not out of contention for this second state spot. The emergence of new star Logan Strouse is what has facilitated the little success that Shikellamy is having. After running 4:24 last spring, Strouse now finds himself as the district favorite, though Hess won't go down quietly. I know Shikellamy just lost to Danville at Foundation and didn't run all that well, but I still think with Strouse, and the 34 second spread from 2-5, this Shikellamy team has the structure to perform well at the district meet.

6 comments:

  1. NA traveling all the way to Lehigh for Paul Short. The course might be a little soft but otherwise it should be decent weather for some nice times. It's gonna be a good one.

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  2. I believe only Kinne from NA is running in PS.

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  3. Paul Short and Carlisle tomorrow. It's getting serious now.

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  4. DTW beats LaSalle. Like I thought, I knew LaSalle was good but I wasn't convinced they're going back to back. - JEB

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    1. I must admit you were right and I jumped the gun on LaSalle. I'm still gonna stick with LaSalle for states, but it is definitely fair to say they are not the true favorite.

      I might be a little too drawn to LaSalle by their track times. Twomey/Seiberlich are 4:22, Koors/Maher 9:05ish 3k, Ghantous 4:28, Zilligen 4:26. I used those times as proof (in my view, at least) that LaSalle was ready to roll through this season. DTW certainly has good track times but not as glamourous as those. They just churn out fantastic XC runners like it's nothing.

      On a side note, a key result I saw this week was that NA beat Seneca Valley in a section meet... without Kinne. NA's depth was just too much. SV is a nice squad, but I have them a tier below the big three. I'll say LaSalle #1, DTW #2, NA #3 with each having very legitimate claims to why they will win in November.


      -Jiminy Cricket

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