Sub 16's at Lehigh and Carlisle Impressive? Weekend Recap 9/29

Throughout the past 5 years, we've been graced with magical performances on this very weekend. In 2016, we saw debatably the fastest xc race in PA history, when Noah Affolder and Nathan Henderson dueled to a 14:47-14:59 finish at Carlisle. In 2014, we saw Colin Abert shock the state with a solo 14:55 at Paul Short. Just last year, we saw Dalton Hengst run 14:57 in a race where 3 men broke 15:10, and the top 6 were all sub 15:30. The point is, this is usually the weekend where teams and individuals lay down marks that put them in the conversations of many, and catch national attention.

Its fair to say that wasn't the case this weekend.

In a mud bath-like run, the Paul Short kids dealt with surprising heat and mushy surfaces. With 31 kids running 16:00 or faster in 2017, the number was just 11 runners this time around. Over at Carlisle, athletes looked as if they were competing in a triathlon minus the biking, with runners navigating through mini lakes and rivers. Just the top 6 runners dipped under 16 at this meet, as opposed to last year, where more than 15 boys accomplished just that.

The point is, the times are not what we expected them to be. However, that doesn't mean we didn't see shockingly impressive performances. This doesn't mean we don't have teams that could compete on the regional level (though many mainstream outlets may think so, because they love to just look at times). All it means is rather than chasing what many were hoping to be fast times, teams found themselves toughing it out in difficult conditions to see who would prevail. Sound like Hershey? We saw some big surprises. Lets dive in.

Paul Short-
After the collegiates did a number on the course earlier on in the day, we knew our high school runners were in for a bit of a mess. In an individual showdown between Kinne and a host of out of staters, Kinne once again asserted his dominance, dismantling the field on his way to a 15:23 effort. In many years, 15:23 would be just another solid race from a top guy, but this can not be overlooked at all. In the conditions of the course, on a sneaky hot day, this 15:23 effort from Kinne can be equated to say, the 15:01 effort that Rusty Kujdych threw down last year. Kinne clearly came over to eastern PA to throw down a fast time, so although he may not be pleased, it was a very impressive performance. After Kinne, we didn't see PA again until 6th place. Christian McComb continued his back and forth battle between him and Tyler Wirth, as he has now won two of three since PTXC. As we are more into the second half of the season, I see McComb and Walker as the two individual favorites from D1. That will be one fun one race to watch a month from now. Next behind McComb was the aforementioned Wirth. Again, I expected a bit of a better race from him, and maybe he hasn't had the season some expected from him up to this point, but it can't be overlooked that his best race of the season is from the states course last week. This kid is a stud and loves the Hershey course, so don't forget about him. Healey ran another solid race to cement himself as one of the best guys in A, but as we'll get to, he'll need to get better to even have a shot at Miller. The race of day in my mind goes to the top sophomore in the race, Robert DiDonato from Germantown Academy. I mentioned him as a sleeper after he finished runner up to Love at the George School Invite, but I wasn't expecting this. He hung with some BIG time names for this being his 2nd XC race! Is DiDonato the new favorite for the private school state meet?

Team wise, PA got beat up pretty badly in this one. With a lot of our top teams taking off this week, out of state squads swept the top 3 spots. OJR and Parkland were the top 2 PA schools, both finishing in the top 5, and within 7 points of each other. This result doesn't completely surprise me, as these are two very solid teams, though I would've expected Parkland to come out on top. Williamson had an off day though, so this could have gone either way. I think these are two teams that are both right around that 9th-11th area in the state for AAA right now, so they hung well with some of the finest talent that Delaware and North Carolina has to offer. Easton only lost to Parkland by 36 points, so while I believe Parkland is still the clear favorite in D11, I wouldn't say it is by a landslide.

In the white race, there isn't too much to say outside of Jack Miller and the rest of the Jenkintown Drakes. Jack Miller's 15:44 in a 30+ second landslide victory is nothing short of just a special performance. Miller is on an absolute tear this season, and he inches further and further away from the rest of the A field every week. I've said it before, while we may see NA lean towards an NXN performance, Miller might be one of our strongest bets out of a FL regional this year (although his Jenkintown squad might lean towards NXR at this rate). I expected a stronger race out of Wyomissing, having not really seen them at all this season. GFS, while a distant 2nd, looks to be the clear favorite for the Independent League state title. Another great race from Malvern Prep's super frosh Zachary Brill. While many expect the seasoned senior veteran Jeffrey Love to pick up the private league title, his stiffest competition is shaping up to be from a freshman, and a first year sophomore.


Carlisle Invitational-
Despite everything I had to say about Paul Short runners overcoming some tough conditions, I think its fair to say that Carlisle runners had it much, much worse. I really want to talk about the teams first, because lets be honest, this was the talk of the weekend. In a big surprise (although not to everyone), Downingtown West finally unleashed their squad on PA, and took down the defending state champs LaSalle, 99-110. In a race where LaSalle's top man, Vincent Twomey really struggled, Dwest "LaSalle'd" LaSalle, utilizing a dirty top 5, all in the top 30 to take the win. Despite Dwest's depth however, they could not have won without the front running from Payton Sewall, whose 4th place finish gave them a big advantage over LaSalle. Commenters on this blog have stated that despite no true ace for LaSalle, they will find ways to get guys into the medals and still win. Well, we got our first taste of what an elite field did to them. So the question becomes, what does all of this mean? Does LaSalle still have a chance to win it all? Are Seneca Valley and North Allegheny actually much better than their eastern counterparts? Or are the Whippets of Dwest all of a sudden now the favorites? The answer for me, while it may be a bit of a weak answer, is that all four teams are in contention for the title. If Twomey runs as expected, LaSalle beats Dwest by a couple of points. NA is undefeated when at full strength, but barely held off a SV team with a sick Seth Ketler. The point is, there is no favorite. I think these four teams have now separated themselves as the four best teams in the state, with a decent sized gap behind them. I think there is a 2nd tier of teams for 5th-8th or so that also stand alone, but for now, the podium finishes will be between these four teams. And man, is it going to be fun to watch.

Lets talk individuals. Jack Wisner was one out of state runner away from snagging the win on his home course. Wisner has been around the top of the state for years now, and now, in his senior year, finally has the chance to breakthrough to the top. He has not finished in the top 30 at an XC state meet, and this year I think he is more than just a medal threat. Brayden Harris had an incredible race as well. Despite most of his Mifflin County team really struggling this weekend, Harris got a big win over a guy in Sewall to take 3rd overall. Really impressive races from Klingenberg and Shields make the individual race up front very exciting to watch in D3. I expected a better race from Baublitz, but, like Wirth, I'm not too worried after his run at Hershey.

Other Notes:
-Josh Lewis continues to roll, staying undefeated after a win at McQuaid
-Danville shows me up, beating Warrior Run (power ranked 2nd in D4) by a slim margin of 3 points (had Danville power ranked 4th in D4)
-In a really surprising McQuaid matchup, Wyalusing Valley Area loses to both Montrose and Elk County Catholic